How To Catch The Blue Jays

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[h=1]How to catch the Blue Jays[/h][h=3]The rest of the AL East has some work to do to catch the projected favorites[/h]
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
ESPN INSIDER
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The busy offseason for the Toronto Blue Jays continued over the weekend, with the team acquiring NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey from the New York Mets in a seven-player trade. Toronto's complete overhaul of the rotation looks to be done, but is it enough to fend off the rest of the division?

There's no question that the Jays gave up a lot of value to bring Dickey across the border. As Keith Law outlined Monday, Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard are legitimately excellent prospects and the odds are strong that one or both will succeed with the Mets.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Projecting Dickey[/h]Dickey isn't a short-term fix because typical aging patterns don't apply to knuckleballers. We looked at the issue more deeply in a recent issue of ESPN The Magazine and found that when it came to innings remaining, a 38-year-old knuckler could be considered to be in about the same position as a "conventional" 33- or 34-year-old pitcher.
YearIPERAKWAR
2013194.23.881494.0
2014194.24.111423.5
2015191.14.331362.8
2016180.04.351282.7

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<!-- end inline 1 -->That being said, pitchers of Dickey's value don't come cheaply and the acquisition makes perfect sense when examined against the backdrop of the other moves the Blue Jays made this season. Unlike a team like the Kansas City Royals, Toronto has a base of talent strong enough that a win-now trade is warranted. The ZiPS projection system estimated that the Jays' big trade with the Miami Marlins put the estimated talent level of the Toronto roster at around 90 wins, and this trade pushes that figure even higher.

Dickey's unlikely to be nearly 6 wins above replacement again in the American League in 2012 -- pitchers aren't immune to regression and he's moving to a league and park that will likely result in more homers allowed -- but he doesn't need to be a Cy Young winner in 2013 to push Toronto's playoff chances forward. The ZiPS projection system projects Dickey at a 3.88 ERA in 194&frac23; innings in Toronto, good enough to be a 4-WAR season. Coupled with the Melky Cabrera signing, ZiPS now estimates the talent of Toronto's roster at 93 wins, making the Blue Jays the early favorites going into the season.

Now the question that remains is just how the rest of the division responds to this trade. Moves aren't made in a vacuum, after all, so the strength of the competition is something that has to be taken into consideration in any kind of offseason planning. So, what, if anything, could the rest of the division do to answer this trade?
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The Tampa Bay Rays already made their big move of the winter, acquiring Wil Myers in a deal for James Shields, and are unlikely to answer with another big move of their own. Their payroll situation is tight, and unlike the New York Yankees, their payroll limits are out of necessity rather than preference. Shields is likely more valuable in 2013 than Wil Myers, but Myers fills a more pressing need for the team long term. ZiPS has the Rays at 88 wins right now (see table).

The Yankees are up against a self-imposed salary cap, so unless they choose to ignore it, the upgrades available to the team are limited. Even assuming the Ichiro contract is a done deal and Kevin Youkilis is a solid DH when A-Rod eventually returns around midseason, the team could still use the outfield help. Even most of the second-tier outfielders like Shane Victorino and Ryan Ludwick are gone and the corner outfield options essentially consist of eating crow and bringing back Nick Swisher or a large drop-off to Delmon Young or Scott Hairston. New York still projects in the mid-to-high 80s in wins as there's still talent on the roster, but there's serious downside here.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Projected standings[/h]As of Dec. 18, the Jays are the clear favorite in the AL East.
TeamWLPCTGB
Toronto9369.574--
Tampa Bay8874.5435
New York8775.5376
Boston8577.5258
Baltimore7785.47516

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<!-- end inline 2 -->The Boston Red Sox were projected at 76 wins last month with their on-hand talent, but assuming the Mike Napoli signing is finalized, him plus the additions of Victorino, Stephen Drew, Ryan Dempster, Koji Uehara and Jonny Gomes have boosted their mean win projection by about 10 wins. The team could still theoretically decide to overpay Swisher, but the lineup is probably set at this point. Edwin Jackson's probably the best signing left the team could make.

The biggest loser in the AL East moves has been the Baltimore Orioles, now in likely the most precarious position of any AL East team. The O's were projected to win 80 games as of a month ago, but with the aggressive improvements of the Blue Jays and Red Sox, the 2013 returns of Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera and the Rays nicely solving their Shields conundrum, the O's position has eroded. Last season was a fun ride, but rather than take 2012 as a sign that the time was right to really go for some quality additions, the big moves have been re-signing Nate McLouth and acquiring Danny Valencia. After missing out on most free agents and likely unwilling to move Adam Jones to left to give them a reason to sign Michael Bourn, the O's practically need to bring in one of Jackson, Swisher or Kyle Lohse to save the offseason from being a categorical failure.

Toronto's fan base ought to be nothing but smiles on Tuesday. The Jays, on paper, are likely the best team in the AL East right now. Pennants are won on the field, of course, but Toronto's offseason revamping has been astonishing. We don't know yet if the wins will materialize, but despite what sports movies always tell us, being the favorite is a better position than being the underdog.
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