NBA Big Man Barometer

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[h=1]Versatile bigs dominate Barometer[/h][h=3]Ryan Anderson, Danilo Gallinari among top bigs for the week[/h]
By Bradford Doolittle | Basketball Prospectus

Joakim Noah put up an impressive stat line on Tuesday, notching his second career triple-double in the Chicago Bulls' win over the slumping Boston Celtics.

Often triple-doubles by natural centers include a double-digit performance in blocked shots, which was the case for Roy Hibbert earlier this season. Greg Monroe had the only other points-rebounds-assists triple-double among pivots this season before Noah. Noah now has two of the past five triple-doubles recorded by centers.

Noah has long been regarded as a very skilled passing big man, but the Bulls' need for his playmaking has been minimal in seasons past because of the considerable presence of Derrick Rose. With Rose still rehabbing his injured knee, Noah's passing has become an increasingly crucial aspect of Chicago's offense.

Noah is averaging 4.5 assists per game, two more than his previous career best, and his 109 total assists is just three behind Kirk Hinrich for Chicago's team lead. Noah leads the Bulls in December dimes with 52 in 10 games, 12 more than Hinrich, as Tom Thibodeau has increasingly featured Noah running sets from the high post, where he works effectively in tandem with Carlos Boozer and Taj Gibson.

Rose's longed-for return might eventually prevent Noah from finishing with the most assists on the Bulls, but if Noah pulls it off, it'll be a rare feat. It's not an easy stat to track down, but according to a scan of the Play Index at Basketball-Reference.com, the last instance we could find of a center leading his team in assists was David Robinson pacing the Spurs in 1993-94.

Aiding Noah's cause is Thibodeau's heavy reliance on him: Noah is averaging more than 40 minutes per game this season, 7.4 more than his previous career high.

Details on how the Big Man Barometer is compiled can be found here.

[h=3]Top 10 Big Man Performances[/h]Week of Dec. 12-18. Players listed by winning percentage. Any player who played a total of at least 30 minutes at center or power forward last week is eligible for the rankings. Also included at the bottom are big man projections for next week.
<offer>[h=3]1. J.J. Hickson | Portland Trail Blazers (.831)[/h]<offer><!--INLINE MUG-->
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<center>Hickson</center>
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The season just keeps getting better for Hickson, who has put up a double-double in each of his past five games. Over that span, he's averaging 16 points, 13.2 rebounds and shooting 68 percent from the field. Those are the kind of numbers that will land you on top of the weekly Barometer.

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[h=3]2. Chris Copeland | New York Knicks (.787)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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Copeland's recent performance is further proof of how everything the Knicks touched this past offseason turned into pure gold. After spending most of the season on the end of the Knicks' bench, Copeland has taken advantage of extended run in New York's past three games, averaging 16 points on 64 percent shooting and hitting 7-of-10 from behind the arc.

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[h=3]3. LeBron James | Miami Heat (.785)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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There was nothing particularly notable about James' week, which was typically outstanding. He did block a season-high four shots against Minnesota. James once again split his minutes more evenly between the 3 and 4 positions as Erik Spoelstra mixes in traditional configurations because of Miami's defensive struggles.

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[h=3]4. Andre Drummond | Detroit Pistons (.769)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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Projecting rookies can be tricky business, but Drummond's continued production qualifies as one of the biggest surprises among this season's first-year class. No rookie getting double-digit minutes has exceeded his projected winning percentage by more than Drummond. He's still averaging only 18.5 minutes per game but nevertheless leads all rookies in WARP. Damian Lillard has gotten deserved early buzz as the front-runner for Rookie of the Year, but if Drummond's minutes increase on a regular basis, he could make a legitimate run at the award.

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[h=3]5. Lamar Odom | Los Angeles Clippers (.729)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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Odom's appearance on this leaderboard has to be a scary proposition for the rest of the league, which watches the Clippers get better on an almost nightly basis. Odom has been efficient with his opportunities of late and has been a beast on the boards. He's done this while still playing pretty passively on the offensive end, where he's totaled just six free throw attempts all season. At the other end, Odom blocked six shots in three games recently as his body language and energy more resemble the player we've come to know over the years. If the improving quality of Odom's play leads to a more aggressive demeanor, the Clippers will be that much more dangerous.

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[h=3]6. JaVale McGee | Denver Nuggets (.728)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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Over his past five games, McGee has averaged 27 points, 8 rebounds and 7 blocks per 40 minutes, while shooting 67 percent from the floor. Those ridiculous numbers have earned him 18 minutes per game over that span. Now that they're getting some games at home, the Nuggets are playing better overall. But we'll reiterate what it seems like we write every week: For Denver to reach its ceiling, McGee has to make it work with the starting unit and when he does, he needs to be playing 30-35 minutes per night. Then we'll find out if his amazing per-minute numbers are for real.

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[h=3]7. Paul Millsap | Utah Jazz (.725)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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Millsap is no newcomer to this list, but he went about it a little differently this week, featuring efficiency at a lesser volume than we're accustomed to. Still, Millsap has become a box score stuffer, capable of delivering just about any category the Jazz need help with in any game while at the same time pulling back in areas in which he's not needed. That's pretty much the definition of a winning player. Millsap leads the Jazz in WARP and ranks in Utah's top three in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks.

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[h=3]8. Ersan Ilyasova | Milwaukee Bucks (.708)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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<center>Ilyasova</center>
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It's been a tale of two seasons for Ilyasova, who struggled early on after inking a big-money contract with the Bucks over the summer. He started the first 11 games he played, averaging 10.8 points, 8.3 rebounds per 40 minutes and shooting 32 percent. He was moved to the bench for Milwaukee's game in Chicago on Nov. 26 and in 12 games since that night, he's put up 18.7 points and 10.6 rebounds per 40 minutes, and shot 45 percent. His 3-point shooting has improved from 23 percent to 39 percent. Guess someone likes coming off the bench.

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[h=3]9. Ryan Anderson | New Orleans Hornets (.704)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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<center>Anderson</center>
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People wonder why Anderson scores so well in advanced metrics, which value efficiency so highly. Anderson isn't nearly as one dimensional as the stereotypes that brand him as such. For one, it's not just that he's a 3-point specialist. He's a high-volume 3-point specialist. Anderson is leading the league in 3-point attempts and makes, categories in which he also set the pace last season. He's taking it to a new level as a Hornet, averaging 3.4 makes and 8.2 attempts so far. The per-game number of makes is on pace to challenge Ray Allen's 7-year-old record for qualifying shooters, and the attempts would rank fifth. What's more, Anderson is doing all this while playing for the slowest-paced team in the NBA.

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[h=3]10. Danilo Gallinari | Denver Nuggets (.701)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
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<center>Gallinari</center>
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Gallinari has been slowly re-establishing himself as a prime 3-point threat and has been able to leverage that into more free throw attempts, as well. This is as good a reason as any that the Nuggets' offense has been more efficient in recent games. Gallinari just barely sneaked over the minutes minimum to qualify for the Barometer this week, having been coded for 30.1 minutes as a power forward. For the season, his small forward/power forward split has been about 62 percent to 38 percent.

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[h=3]Three to watch[/h]
Greg Smith | Houston Rockets
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<center>Smith</center>
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After a couple of recent appearances in the top 10, Smith didn't crack our rankings for the past week, but he still had another string of solid outings. Smith cracked the 20-point mark for the second time this season with an 8-for-9 shooting performance against the Celtics on Friday. The game was telling because of Boston's reliance on small lineups. Smith has improved to the point that the Rockets have him in a quasi-job-sharing arrangement with Omer Asik, with Smith proving to be the more explosive offensive player and finisher at the basket.

Asik's slippery hands are his weakness when it comes to converting off the pick-and-roll or on putbacks. Conversely, Smith's massive hands and exceptional leaping ability help make him an ultra-efficient scorer. Asik's defense and rebounding will keep him in the starting lineup, and he'll continue to get the bulk of the minutes at center for Houston. However, when Houston plays a small-ball team, look for Smith to get more chances to shine. Smith also has gotten more opportunities in high-leverage situations, having logged just one fewer fourth-quarter minute than Asik during the month of December. (Per NBA.com/stats.)

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Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors
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<center>Valanciunas</center>
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Valanciunas went through a stretch in November when it looked like he was going establish himself has a big-production center, but as the losses piled up for Toronto, his playing time and production decreased. The Raptors have reeled off four wins in a row, but even though Valanciunas remains in the starting lineup, he's become something of an afterthought. After putting up 15 shots in Toronto's season opener, Valanciunas has reached double figures in attempts just three other times, and has gotten no more than six in a game the entire month of December.

Valanciunas hasn't been the defensive presence we hoped for. He's been reasonably efficient on offense, though Toronto has been worse with him on the floor. At the other end, the Raptors have been 4.6 points better for every 100 possessions, and have a better shot-block rate, with someone else playing center. We have to be patient with Valanciunas, of course, as he is after all just 20 years old, and is playing his first season in America. His baseline performance so far is solid enough, and there can be no better use of the remainder of the Raptors' season than to develop Valanciunas into a legit NBA pivot.

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Glen Davis | Orlando Magic
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One of Jacque Vaughn's early triumphs in his first season as an NBA head coach has been to convince Glen Davis that he doesn't have to log a Kobe Bryant-like shot volume to justify his presence in the Magic's starting lineup. After launching 22 or more shots in each of Orlando's first three games this season, he hasn't reached that level since. Lately, Davis has had some extremely efficient performances, shooting 7-for-11 twice and adding a 13-for-17 line against Minnesota. Some other outings haven't been so good, but the trend seems positive, and the surprising Magic are at least teetering on the verge of playoff contention. For the season, Davis ranks 27th in true shooting percentage out of 34 qualifying players with a minimum of a 25 percent usage rate. He injured his shoulder on Wednesday night, which should be something to monitor.

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Here are the top 25 big man projections for the week of Dec. 24-30 (forecast for all the players who qualified for this week's Barometer rankings):
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Big Man Projections[/h]
PLAYERPOSGPFG%3MREBASTSTLTOBLKPTSSCORETOTAL
LeBron JamesSF4.5401.18.27.22.03.30.930.926.8107.1
Blake GriffinPF4.5640.110.33.00.82.00.521.217.369.3
Kenneth FariedPF4.6020.09.21.31.01.71.315.714.457.6
Danilo GallinariSF4.4122.24.32.41.21.60.517.513.152.4
Dwight HowardC3.6180.012.81.41.22.52.119.117.452.3
LaMarcus AldridgePF3.4780.08.72.91.12.00.823.017.351.8
Chris BoshPF4.5200.18.21.80.91.90.916.012.851.4
Gerald WallaceSF4.4870.87.42.51.61.80.914.512.750.7
Al HorfordC3.5400.09.93.51.21.71.416.216.047.9
Kevin GarnettPF4.5150.08.23.01.31.80.813.211.847.3
Chandler ParsonsSF4.4701.85.82.81.61.80.514.411.345.1
Josh SmithPF3.4540.49.44.01.72.41.616.914.643.9
Joakim NoahC3.4790.012.83.01.02.42.214.314.643.8
Al JeffersonC3.5150.09.02.10.91.41.817.014.343.0
David LeePF3.5000.09.73.21.12.00.417.013.741.1
Greg MonroeC3.5670.08.62.41.32.00.514.613.339.9
Kevin LovePF2.4962.112.82.00.82.10.422.819.438.8
Thaddeus YoungPF3.5050.35.51.71.61.50.517.212.938.8
Paul MillsapPF3.5340.17.52.51.81.91.114.612.938.7
Tyson ChandlerC3.6440.010.10.81.01.91.512.512.738.0
David WestPF3.4830.07.33.11.21.80.815.812.637.7
Brook LopezC4.5070.05.01.40.51.41.012.19.437.7
Anderson VarejaoC3.5160.011.52.31.61.80.911.812.537.5
DeMarcus CousinsC3.4830.09.31.71.22.40.716.912.336.8
Ryan AndersonPF3.4053.07.81.20.91.20.616.512.236.5

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