[h=1]Broncos new No. 1 in Bettors' Poll[/h][h=3]Power ratings for all 32 NFL teams from handicappers going into Week 17[/h]
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- The Denver Broncos won their 10th straight game Sunday with a methodical 34-12 win over the Cleveland Browns and it moved them into sole possession of the top spot in the NFL Bettors' Poll.
The New England Patriots, who were tied with the Broncos at No. 1 last week, beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-16 but didn't cover the 14-point spread and saw their power rating drop by half a point in the poll that includes the combined power ratings of Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley.
The Seattle Seahawks continued their surge up the ratings with their 42-13 rout of the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night and are in a three-way tie with the 49ers and the Green Bay Packers.
The Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings are the only other teams to pick up a full point in their power ratings off of their upset wins over the New York Giants and Houston Texans, respectively.
The Giants, who were blown out for the second straight week, dropped two full points while the 49ers, Steelers, Lions and Jets were all downgraded by one point.
Here is the full Week 17 Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll:
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Week 17 Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll[/h]
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<!-- end inline 2 -->Each week, we go through the schedule and compare the power ratings of the two teams playing in every game to see if there is any edge to be found with our collective power ratings against the available lines. While we have always stressed that more things go into handicapping games than just power ratings, we've been disappointed by the overall losing record on the games that have seen a difference between our combined ratings and the available lines. These recommended plays went 1-3 last week and stand at a subpar 20-23 overall heading into the final week of the regular season.
(Disclaimer: These are not my personal plays, just suggestions based on the combined ratings from the group as a whole. My "Tuley's Take" plays on ESPN Insider are posted on Friday afternoon.)
Minnesota Vikings plus-3.5 versus Green Bay Packers: The raw numbers have the Packers 4.5 points ahead of the Vikings in our ratings, but Minny's home field takes it comfortably under a field goal in this game with playoff implications for both teams.
The pick: Vikings
St. Louis Rams plus-10.5 at Seattle Seahawks: Seattle is the hottest team in football and 7-0 straight up and against the spread; however, they're only 5.5 points ahead of the Rams in our power ratings. Even if giving them a league-high 3.5 points for home field, that still leaves it short of the double digits that the Rams are getting (and note that while the Seahawks are tied for a league-best spread record of 11-4 ATS, the Rams are right behind them at 10-5).
The pick: Rams
Washington Redskins minus-3 versus Dallas Cowboys: The raw numbers have the Redskins 2 points better than the Cowboys and home-field advantage (whether you go with 2.5 or even just 2 for Washington) puts it over a field goal. Obviously we'll feel less thrilled if the line goes to 3.5.
The pick: Redskins
Panel:
Dave Tuley of ESPN Insider and ViewFromVegas.com
Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com
Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- The Denver Broncos won their 10th straight game Sunday with a methodical 34-12 win over the Cleveland Browns and it moved them into sole possession of the top spot in the NFL Bettors' Poll.
The New England Patriots, who were tied with the Broncos at No. 1 last week, beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-16 but didn't cover the 14-point spread and saw their power rating drop by half a point in the poll that includes the combined power ratings of Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley.
The Seattle Seahawks continued their surge up the ratings with their 42-13 rout of the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night and are in a three-way tie with the 49ers and the Green Bay Packers.
The Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings are the only other teams to pick up a full point in their power ratings off of their upset wins over the New York Giants and Houston Texans, respectively.
The Giants, who were blown out for the second straight week, dropped two full points while the 49ers, Steelers, Lions and Jets were all downgraded by one point.
Here is the full Week 17 Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll:
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Week 17 Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll[/h]
| Rank | Team | ATS Record | Power Rating | Last Week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denver Broncos | 9-5-1 | 26.5 | 26 | +0.5 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 8-7 | 26 | 26 | ---- |
| 3t | San Francisco 49ers | 9-6 | 24.5 | 25.5 | -1 |
| 3t | Seattle Seahawks | 11-4 | 24.5 | 23.5 | +1 |
| 3t | Green Bay Packers | 9-6 | 24.5 | 24 | +0.5 |
| 6 | Atlanta Falcons | 9-5-1 | 23.5 | 23 | +0.5 |
| 7 | Houston Texans | 9-6 | 23.5 | 24 | -0.5 |
| 8t | Washington Redskins | 11-4 | 22.5 | 22.5 | ---- |
| 8t | Baltimore Ravens | 6-8-1 | 22.5 | 21.5 | +1 |
| 10t | Cincinnati Bengals | 8-6-1 | 22 | 21.5 | +0.5 |
| 10t | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5-9-1 | 22 | 23 | -1 |
| 10t | New York Giants | 6-8-1 | 22 | 24 | -2 |
| 13t | New Orleans Saints | 8-7 | 21 | 21 | ---- |
| 13t | Chicago Bears | 7-8 | 21 | 21 | ---- |
| 15t | Dallas Cowboys | 6-9 | 20.5 | 20.5 | ---- |
| 15t | Minnesota Vikings | 7-7-1 | 20.5 | 19.5 | +1 |
| 17 | Carolina Panthers | 7-8 | 19.5 | 19.5 | ---- |
| 18t | Indianapolis Colts | 9-5-1 | 19 | 19 | ---- |
| 18t | Miami Dolphins | 8-7 | 19 | 19 | ---- |
| 18t | St. Louis Rams | 10-5 | 19 | 18.5 | +0.5 |
| 21t | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-5-2 | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| 21t | Cleveland Browns | 8-6-1 | 18 | 18.5 | -0.5 |
| 21t | San Diego Chargers | 7-8 | 18 | 18 | ---- |
| 24 | Detroit Lions | 5-10 | 17.5 | 18.5 | -1 |
| 25 | Buffalo Bills | 6-9 | 17 | 17.5 | -0.5 |
| 26 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3-11-1 | 16.5 | 16.5 | ---- |
| 27t | New York Jets | 7-8 | 16 | 17 | -1 |
| 27t | Tennessee Titans | 5-9-1 | 16 | 16 | ---- |
| 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 7-8 | 14 | 13.5 | +0.5 |
| 30 | Oakland Raiders | 4-11 | 13 | 13 | ---- |
| 31t | Arizona Cardinals | 6-8-1 | 12.5 | 13 | -0.5 |
| 31t | Kansas City Chiefs | 5-10 | 12.5 | 12.5 | ---- |
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<!-- end inline 2 -->Each week, we go through the schedule and compare the power ratings of the two teams playing in every game to see if there is any edge to be found with our collective power ratings against the available lines. While we have always stressed that more things go into handicapping games than just power ratings, we've been disappointed by the overall losing record on the games that have seen a difference between our combined ratings and the available lines. These recommended plays went 1-3 last week and stand at a subpar 20-23 overall heading into the final week of the regular season.
(Disclaimer: These are not my personal plays, just suggestions based on the combined ratings from the group as a whole. My "Tuley's Take" plays on ESPN Insider are posted on Friday afternoon.)
Minnesota Vikings plus-3.5 versus Green Bay Packers: The raw numbers have the Packers 4.5 points ahead of the Vikings in our ratings, but Minny's home field takes it comfortably under a field goal in this game with playoff implications for both teams.
The pick: Vikings
St. Louis Rams plus-10.5 at Seattle Seahawks: Seattle is the hottest team in football and 7-0 straight up and against the spread; however, they're only 5.5 points ahead of the Rams in our power ratings. Even if giving them a league-high 3.5 points for home field, that still leaves it short of the double digits that the Rams are getting (and note that while the Seahawks are tied for a league-best spread record of 11-4 ATS, the Rams are right behind them at 10-5).
The pick: Rams
Washington Redskins minus-3 versus Dallas Cowboys: The raw numbers have the Redskins 2 points better than the Cowboys and home-field advantage (whether you go with 2.5 or even just 2 for Washington) puts it over a field goal. Obviously we'll feel less thrilled if the line goes to 3.5.
The pick: Redskins
Panel:
Dave Tuley of ESPN Insider and ViewFromVegas.com
Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com
Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com
