[h=1]Better season, AP or Megatron?[/h][h=3]Calvin Johnson has broken a record, and Adrian Peterson is closing in[/h]
By Vince Verhei | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson made history this weekend against Atlanta. Johnson gained 225 receiving yards against the Falcons, bringing his season total to 1,892, breaking the record of 1,848 set by San Francisco's Jerry Rice in 1995. That record lasted for 17 years. Eric Dickerson's record of 2,105 yards rushing, set in 1984, has lasted even longer, but that mark too is in jeopardy. Despite a modest output Sunday against Houston, Minnesota's Adrian Peterson has 1,898 yards on the ground this season, and he can surpass Dickerson's mark with 208 yards next week against Green Bay -- the same Green Bay team that let Peterson run for 210 yards in Week 12.
There's a problem with all these numbers, though. Total yardage tells us only part of what each player did in a given season. In a nutshell, it tells us a lot about the good plays a runner or receiver made, but it doesn't say much about the bad plays -- the incomplete passes on bad routes, the stuffs in the backfield when a running back took a poor angle, the fumbles, and other gaffes. For that we can turn to DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement), Football Outsiders' metric that examines every play of the NFL season and measures its value in terms of producing yards, first downs, turnovers and touchdowns, then adjusts for factors such as down, distance, field position, score, opponent, and other factors. (More info available here.) So who is having the better year?
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According to DYAR, Johnson's season has been truly elite, but Peterson's campaign has been less valuable to the Vikings than fantasy numbers or highlight reels would have you believe.
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We'll start with Johnson, because his status is more straightforward. The following table shows the top wide receiver seasons in DYAR since 1991, including Johnson this season (projected over 16 games):
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Megatron's Mega-season[/h]Top wide receiver seasons by DYAR, 1991-2012, projected over 16 games:
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Johnson's catch rate and yards per pass are good, but nothing special among this group, and his touchdown total is relatively poor. Johnson's most eye-popping statistic (besides his yardage, obviously) is the sum of his targets. Johnson has 190 targets so far this season with one game to go. He's a safe bet to become the fourth player since 1991 to amass 200 targets in a season, joining former Lion Herman Moore (who had 206 in 1995), former Colt Marvin Harrison (202, 1995) and former Cardinal Rob Moore (208, 1997). Johnson is delivering like nobody else ever has in history, but that's largely because he has been given opportunities to deliver like very few men before him.
By the way, if Johnson goes wild against the Bears this Sunday, he has a very slim chance to finish atop this list. He'll need 100 DYAR against Chicago to top Michael Irvin's 1995 season for Dallas. The best game for a receiver this year was Andre Johnson's 85-DYAR outing against Jacksonville in Week 11. The Houston Texans wideout caught 14 passes in 19 targets for 273 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars. That's the ballpark of what Calvin Johnson will need this weekend, though he'll also get a sturdy boost in DYAR for playing the still-solid Chicago defense.
Now what about Peterson? The Vikings' running back does not project to finish among the top runners in our DYAR database, but we're listing him here with the leaders to demonstrate what his strengths and weaknesses have been this season, and how extreme those strengths and weaknesses have been:
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]All Day[/h]Top RB seasons by Rushing DYAR, 1991-2012, projected over 16 games:
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Peterson's carry and fumble numbers sit in the middle of this pack, and though his touchdowns are on the low side, he more than makes up for it with an average gain that blows these players -- the best of the best -- out of the water. However, his success rate (the percentage of carries that gain meaningful yardage toward a new set of downs, explained here) pales in comparison to the rest of his peers, and he gets stuffed in the backfield at a staggering rate, more than twice as often as some of these other backs.
Those negative runs leave Christian Ponder and the Vikings' offense in long-yardage situations far too often, and that's why Peterson's DYAR will fall outside the top 10 in the DYAR database. With 388 DYAR, Peterson would rank 17th.
(By the way, this high-average/high-stuff-rate combo is not unprecedented. In 1997, Detroit's Barry Sanders gained 2,053 yards and averaged 6.13 yards per carry, but he was stuffed on 22 percent of his runs.)
Is Peterson solely responsible for his stuff rate? Of course not. His offensive linemen deserve their share of the blame as well. On the other hand, they also deserve some credit for clearing the path for Peterson to rip off some of his longer runs. Our in-depth play-by-play analysis gives us a lot more information than simple yardage totals, but we still can't totally separate the performance of a runner from his offensive line. For what it's worth, Peterson's teammate Toby Gerhart has a stuff rate of 22 percent, which is very high, but still lower than Peterson's, and Minnesota's offensive line fares well in our run-blocking metrics.
If this sounds like an attempt to disparage either Johnson or (especially) Peterson, that's not the intent. Over the course of the season, our numbers say they have still been the most valuable receiver and runner in the league this year, and Peterson's accomplishments this season look particularly remarkable given the comeback he has made from the ACL injury of 2011. There's a lot more to winning games than racking up real estate, though, and as great as this duo has been, we have seen a handful of more valuable players in the past couple of decades.
<!-- begin inline 3 --><style type="text/css">.tableHead{margin-left:8px;padding-bottom:2px;padding-top:5px;font-weight:bold;}.buttons{text-align:center;font-size:1.3em;font-weight:bold;padding-top:2px;padding-bottom:5px;}.header{text-align:center;font-size:1.4em;font-family:Helvetica;font-weight:bold;padding-top:2px;}</style><!-- begin stacked tables -->WEEK 16 DYAR BEST AND WORST
DYAR is Football Outsiders' proprietary metric that measures performance on every play against expected performance for that situation. For a deeper explanation and a full breakdown of the numbers, visit Football Outsiders.
QB | RB | WR/TE
THE GOOD
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<!-- begin stacked tables -->WEEK 16 DYAR BEST AND WORST
DYAR is Football Outsiders' proprietary metric that measures performance on every play against expected performance for that situation. For a deeper explanation and a full breakdown of the numbers, visit Football Outsiders.
QB | RB | WR/TE
THE GOOD
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<!-- begin stacked tables -->WEEK 16 DYAR BEST AND WORST
DYAR is Football Outsiders' proprietary metric that measures performance on every play against expected performance for that situation. For a deeper explanation and a full breakdown of the numbers, visit Football Outsiders.
QB | RB | WR/TE
THE GOOD
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[h=3]Three surprising players[/h]
Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore
In his past five games, Flacco completed 57 percent of his passes with 6.4 yards per pass. That kind of production from the quarterback position isn't going to earn many wins against playoff teams. The Ravens' game against the Giants on Sunday had serious postseason ramifications, and a Baltimore loss would have been their fourth in a row, setting up a winner-take-all showdown for the AFC North title in Week 17. Flacco showed up big against New York, though, completing 25 of 36 passes for 318 yards with two touchdowns and no sacks or interceptions. He was at his best on third downs, going 11-of-14 for 137 yards and 10 first downs, including a goal-to-go touchdown, plus a 17-yard DPI. He even had a pair of conversions on separate third-and-19 plays. It was as good as we've seen Flacco in a while.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle
The Seattle Seahawks have scored 150 points in their past three games, thanks in large part to Lynch's production. Lynch has been the top running back in our rankings for three weeks in a row now, which is quite possibly a first in the history of Quick Reads. He's only carrying the ball about 15 times a game in that stretch, but he's averaging 7.5 yards per carry. He has been stuffed for no gain or a loss four times, but he has run for 10 or more yards 12 times, with five touchdowns and 10 other first downs. He has only three receptions in those three games, but each of those catches has gained at least 9 yards and a first down, including a touchdown on second-and-goal from the 9.
Lance Kendricks, TE, St. Louis
A second-round pick out of Wisconsin in 2011, Kendricks averaged less than 25 yards per game in his first 29 appearances, never gaining more than 71 yards. He topped that in one play against Tampa Bay on Sunday, finishing with four catches in five targets for 119 yards and a touchdown. His first three receptions each went for first down: a 7-yard gain on third-and-6, a 13-yard gain on second-and-9 and a 19-yard gain on second-and-8. His final reception: an 80-yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage of the second half.
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By Vince Verhei | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson made history this weekend against Atlanta. Johnson gained 225 receiving yards against the Falcons, bringing his season total to 1,892, breaking the record of 1,848 set by San Francisco's Jerry Rice in 1995. That record lasted for 17 years. Eric Dickerson's record of 2,105 yards rushing, set in 1984, has lasted even longer, but that mark too is in jeopardy. Despite a modest output Sunday against Houston, Minnesota's Adrian Peterson has 1,898 yards on the ground this season, and he can surpass Dickerson's mark with 208 yards next week against Green Bay -- the same Green Bay team that let Peterson run for 210 yards in Week 12.
There's a problem with all these numbers, though. Total yardage tells us only part of what each player did in a given season. In a nutshell, it tells us a lot about the good plays a runner or receiver made, but it doesn't say much about the bad plays -- the incomplete passes on bad routes, the stuffs in the backfield when a running back took a poor angle, the fumbles, and other gaffes. For that we can turn to DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement), Football Outsiders' metric that examines every play of the NFL season and measures its value in terms of producing yards, first downs, turnovers and touchdowns, then adjusts for factors such as down, distance, field position, score, opponent, and other factors. (More info available here.) So who is having the better year?
<offer>
According to DYAR, Johnson's season has been truly elite, but Peterson's campaign has been less valuable to the Vikings than fantasy numbers or highlight reels would have you believe.
<offer>
We'll start with Johnson, because his status is more straightforward. The following table shows the top wide receiver seasons in DYAR since 1991, including Johnson this season (projected over 16 games):
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Megatron's Mega-season[/h]Top wide receiver seasons by DYAR, 1991-2012, projected over 16 games:
| Year | Name | Team | DYAR | Passes | Catches | Yards | TD | Catch % | Yds/Pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | Michael Irvin | DAL | 599 | 165 | 111 | 1,603 | 10 | 67% | 9.72 |
| 2011 | Calvin Johnson | DET | 570 | 158 | 96 | 1,680 | 16 | 61% | 10.63 |
| 2007 | Randy Moss | NE | 564 | 160 | 98 | 1,482 | 23 | 61% | 9.26 |
| 2001 | Marvin Harrison | IND | 548 | 164 | 109 | 1,524 | 15 | 66% | 9.29 |
| 2012 | Calvin Johnson | DET | 533* | 203* | 125* | 2,018* | 5* | 62% | 9.96 |
| 2011 | Jordy Nelson | GB | 517 | 96 | 68 | 1,263 | 15 | 71% | 13.16 |
| 2006 | Marvin Harrison | IND | 513 | 148 | 95 | 1,366 | 12 | 64% | 9.23 |
| 1995 | Jerry Rice | SF | 512 | 175 | 122 | 1,848 | 15 | 70% | 10.56 |
| 1994 | Jerry Rice | SF | 512 | 150 | 112 | 1,499 | 13 | 75% | 9.99 |
| 2008 | Andre Johnson | HOU | 510 | 171 | 115 | 1,575 | 8 | 67% | 9.21 |
| 2003 | Randy Moss | MIN | 508 | 172 | 112 | 1,632 | 17 | 65% | 9.49 |
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Johnson's catch rate and yards per pass are good, but nothing special among this group, and his touchdown total is relatively poor. Johnson's most eye-popping statistic (besides his yardage, obviously) is the sum of his targets. Johnson has 190 targets so far this season with one game to go. He's a safe bet to become the fourth player since 1991 to amass 200 targets in a season, joining former Lion Herman Moore (who had 206 in 1995), former Colt Marvin Harrison (202, 1995) and former Cardinal Rob Moore (208, 1997). Johnson is delivering like nobody else ever has in history, but that's largely because he has been given opportunities to deliver like very few men before him.
By the way, if Johnson goes wild against the Bears this Sunday, he has a very slim chance to finish atop this list. He'll need 100 DYAR against Chicago to top Michael Irvin's 1995 season for Dallas. The best game for a receiver this year was Andre Johnson's 85-DYAR outing against Jacksonville in Week 11. The Houston Texans wideout caught 14 passes in 19 targets for 273 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars. That's the ballpark of what Calvin Johnson will need this weekend, though he'll also get a sturdy boost in DYAR for playing the still-solid Chicago defense.
Now what about Peterson? The Vikings' running back does not project to finish among the top runners in our DYAR database, but we're listing him here with the leaders to demonstrate what his strengths and weaknesses have been this season, and how extreme those strengths and weaknesses have been:
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]All Day[/h]Top RB seasons by Rushing DYAR, 1991-2012, projected over 16 games:
| Year | Name | Team | DYAR | Runs | Yards | Avg. | TD | FUM | Success Rate | Stuff Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | Terrell Davis | DEN | 602 | 392 | 2,008 | 5.12 | 21 | 1 | 52% | 18% |
| 1999 | Stephen Davis | WAS | 526 | 290 | 1,407 | 4.85 | 17 | 3 | 60% | 12% |
| 1997 | Terrell Davis | DEN | 526 | 369 | 1,743 | 4.72 | 15 | 4 | 56% | 13% |
| 1995 | Emmitt Smith | DAL | 505 | 375 | 1,770 | 4.72 | 25 | 7 | 53% | 17% |
| 2000 | Marshall Faulk | STL | 501 | 253 | 1,359 | 5.37 | 18 | 0 | 61% | 11% |
| 2002 | Priest Holmes | KC | 497 | 313 | 1,615 | 5.16 | 21 | 1 | 55% | 18% |
| 2005 | Larry Johnson | KC | 488 | 335 | 1,741 | 5.20 | 20 | 5 | 55% | 14% |
| 2003 | Priest Holmes | KC | 485 | 320 | 1,420 | 4.44 | 27 | 1 | 58% | 18% |
| 1994 | Emmitt Smith | DAL | 461 | 368 | 1,484 | 4.03 | 21 | 1 | 52% | 17% |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | SD | 460 | 347 | 1,813 | 5.22 | 28 | 2 | 49% | 14% |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson | MIN | 388* | 335* | 2,025* | 6.04 | 12* | 3* | 49% | 24% |
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Peterson's carry and fumble numbers sit in the middle of this pack, and though his touchdowns are on the low side, he more than makes up for it with an average gain that blows these players -- the best of the best -- out of the water. However, his success rate (the percentage of carries that gain meaningful yardage toward a new set of downs, explained here) pales in comparison to the rest of his peers, and he gets stuffed in the backfield at a staggering rate, more than twice as often as some of these other backs.
Those negative runs leave Christian Ponder and the Vikings' offense in long-yardage situations far too often, and that's why Peterson's DYAR will fall outside the top 10 in the DYAR database. With 388 DYAR, Peterson would rank 17th.
(By the way, this high-average/high-stuff-rate combo is not unprecedented. In 1997, Detroit's Barry Sanders gained 2,053 yards and averaged 6.13 yards per carry, but he was stuffed on 22 percent of his runs.)
Is Peterson solely responsible for his stuff rate? Of course not. His offensive linemen deserve their share of the blame as well. On the other hand, they also deserve some credit for clearing the path for Peterson to rip off some of his longer runs. Our in-depth play-by-play analysis gives us a lot more information than simple yardage totals, but we still can't totally separate the performance of a runner from his offensive line. For what it's worth, Peterson's teammate Toby Gerhart has a stuff rate of 22 percent, which is very high, but still lower than Peterson's, and Minnesota's offensive line fares well in our run-blocking metrics.
If this sounds like an attempt to disparage either Johnson or (especially) Peterson, that's not the intent. Over the course of the season, our numbers say they have still been the most valuable receiver and runner in the league this year, and Peterson's accomplishments this season look particularly remarkable given the comeback he has made from the ACL injury of 2011. There's a lot more to winning games than racking up real estate, though, and as great as this duo has been, we have seen a handful of more valuable players in the past couple of decades.
<!-- begin inline 3 --><style type="text/css">.tableHead{margin-left:8px;padding-bottom:2px;padding-top:5px;font-weight:bold;}.buttons{text-align:center;font-size:1.3em;font-weight:bold;padding-top:2px;padding-bottom:5px;}.header{text-align:center;font-size:1.4em;font-family:Helvetica;font-weight:bold;padding-top:2px;}</style><!-- begin stacked tables -->WEEK 16 DYAR BEST AND WORST
DYAR is Football Outsiders' proprietary metric that measures performance on every play against expected performance for that situation. For a deeper explanation and a full breakdown of the numbers, visit Football Outsiders.
QB | RB | WR/TE
THE GOOD
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| Player | Team | DYAR |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | NO | 232 |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 196 |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 186 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 179 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 165 |
| Peyton Manning | DEN | 164 |
| Tony Romo | DAL | 161 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 128 |
| Jay Cutler | CHI | 84 |
| Christian Ponder | MIN | 55 |
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| Player | Team | DYAR |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | TEN | -152 |
| Josh Freeman | TB | -122 |
| Greg McElroy | NYJ | -109 |
| Brady Quinn | KC | -93 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | -91 |
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<!-- begin stacked tables -->WEEK 16 DYAR BEST AND WORST
DYAR is Football Outsiders' proprietary metric that measures performance on every play against expected performance for that situation. For a deeper explanation and a full breakdown of the numbers, visit Football Outsiders.
QB | RB | WR/TE
THE GOOD
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| Player | Team | DYAR |
|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 62 |
| LeSean McCoy | PHI | 57 |
| Darren Sproles | NO | 47 |
| Montell Owens | JAC | 46 |
| Ryan Grant | GB | 42 |
| C.J. Spiller | BUF | 39 |
| Matt Forte | CHI | 34 |
| Alfred Morris | WAS | 33 |
| Pierre Thomas | NO | 29 |
| Reggie Bush | MIA | 25 |
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| Player | Team | DYAR |
|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | CIN | -48 |
| Darren McFadden | OAK | -34 |
| Arian Foster | HOU | -30 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | ARI | -28 |
| Vick Ballard | IND | -27 |
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<!-- begin stacked tables -->WEEK 16 DYAR BEST AND WORST
DYAR is Football Outsiders' proprietary metric that measures performance on every play against expected performance for that situation. For a deeper explanation and a full breakdown of the numbers, visit Football Outsiders.
QB | RB | WR/TE
THE GOOD
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| Player | Team | DYAR |
|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | DAL | 83 |
| Calvin Johnson | DET | 76 |
| Roddy White | ATL | 74 |
| Eric Decker | DEN | 63 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 46 |
| Lance Kendricks | STL | 46 |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | 43 |
| Anquan Boldin | BAL | 41 |
| Greg Little | CLE | 35 |
| Doug Baldwin | SEA | 34 |
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| Player | Team | DYAR |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | STL | -51 |
| Steve Johnson | BUF | -43 |
| DeVier Posey | HOU | -36 |
| Mario Manningham | SF | -34 |
| Brian Hartline | MIA | -30 |
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[h=3]Three surprising players[/h]
Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore
In his past five games, Flacco completed 57 percent of his passes with 6.4 yards per pass. That kind of production from the quarterback position isn't going to earn many wins against playoff teams. The Ravens' game against the Giants on Sunday had serious postseason ramifications, and a Baltimore loss would have been their fourth in a row, setting up a winner-take-all showdown for the AFC North title in Week 17. Flacco showed up big against New York, though, completing 25 of 36 passes for 318 yards with two touchdowns and no sacks or interceptions. He was at his best on third downs, going 11-of-14 for 137 yards and 10 first downs, including a goal-to-go touchdown, plus a 17-yard DPI. He even had a pair of conversions on separate third-and-19 plays. It was as good as we've seen Flacco in a while.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle
The Seattle Seahawks have scored 150 points in their past three games, thanks in large part to Lynch's production. Lynch has been the top running back in our rankings for three weeks in a row now, which is quite possibly a first in the history of Quick Reads. He's only carrying the ball about 15 times a game in that stretch, but he's averaging 7.5 yards per carry. He has been stuffed for no gain or a loss four times, but he has run for 10 or more yards 12 times, with five touchdowns and 10 other first downs. He has only three receptions in those three games, but each of those catches has gained at least 9 yards and a first down, including a touchdown on second-and-goal from the 9.
Lance Kendricks, TE, St. Louis
A second-round pick out of Wisconsin in 2011, Kendricks averaged less than 25 yards per game in his first 29 appearances, never gaining more than 71 yards. He topped that in one play against Tampa Bay on Sunday, finishing with four catches in five targets for 119 yards and a touchdown. His first three receptions each went for first down: a 7-yard gain on third-and-6, a 13-yard gain on second-and-9 and a 19-yard gain on second-and-8. His final reception: an 80-yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage of the second half.
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