Gold Sheet
MILITARY BOWL
BOWLING GREEN (8-4) vs. SAN JOSE STATE (10-2)
San Jose State 24 - Bowling Green 23—First-ever meeting between these
two mid-major schools that made similar dramatic improvement over a two-year
period. SJS (joining MWC next season), which was 1-12 in 2010, catapulted to
10-2 this season under third-year mentor Mike MacIntrye, who has bolted to
take over the reclamation project at Colorado. Spartans’ defensive coordinator
Kent Baer (staff member since 2008) is the interim head coach. BG, which
finished 2-10 in 2010, has risen to 8-4 this campaign under 4th-year mentor
Dave Clawson, who did lead his squad to the Humanitarian Bowl in his first term
in 2009 (Falcons lost 43-42 to Idaho on 2-pt. conversion with 4 ticks left ). Both
teams ended the regular season on an uptick, the Falcons winning 7 of last 8
(following expected Sept. setbacks at Florida, Toledo & Virginia Tech) and SJS
notching 6 Ws in a row.
The potent Spartan attack (34 ppg) is expertly executed by prolific juco QB
David Fales (72%, 31 TDs, 9 ints.), who immediately developed rapport with
proven WRs Noel Grigsby (73 grabs, 9 TDs) & Chandler Jones (46 catches, 10
TDs). The ground game (only 3.5 ypc) was more of an afterthought, ranking a
lowly 102nd. The Bowling Green offense (21 ppg), led by third-year starting QB
Matt Schilz (2,496 YP, 14 TDs, 12 ints.; third all-time in school history with 7,673
YP), has reliable targets in WR Shaun Joplin (39 grabs, 4 TDs),TE Alex Bayer
(34), and blossoming 6-4 RS frosh WR Chris Gallon (47, 6 TDs), who hauled in
15 catches for 278 yds. in the last two games. The Falcons’ ground game
commands respect, thanks to slashing RB Anthony Samuel (966 YR, 10 TDs).
SJS owns the more dangerous arsenal, but the defensive advantage clearly
goes to BG’s smothering stop unit (15.8 ppg, 37 sacks), anchored by hardcharging
DT Chris Jones (MAC Defensive Player of Year; 12½ sacks), and a
trio of head-hunting LBs, Gabe Martin, Dwayne Woods & Paul Swan, who
combined for 188 tackles. Falcons’ tight-covering secondary (173 ypg, 7th
nationally), spearheaded by first-team All-MAC S Jerry “BooBoo” Gates,
allowed only 9 TD passes. And while the Spartan defense (21.4 ppg), led by DE
Travis Johnson (12 sacks) & ball-hawking S Bene Benwikere (7 ints.) was
opportunistic (31 takeaways), the disciplined BG attack had only four lost
fumbles all season. Moreover, we believe the Falcons’ balanced “O” should
have sufficient success vs. the SJS stop unit, which allowed a whopping 42 ppg
vs. the quality arsenals of San Diego State, Utah State and La Tech.
So, we prefer to “take” with motivated BG (seeking first 9-win campaign
since 2004), which has performed well as a road underdog, going 12-5 in role
since 2008. And, with a strong alumni base on the East Coast and doable 500-
mile trip for Falcon nation, BG should have far greater fan support than coastto-coast
traveling SJS squad also coping with the “lost father syndrome.”
“Under” also the way to look, with Dave Clawson’s BG crew going below the
total in 15 of last 17 games!
BELK BOWL
CINCINNATI (9-3) vs. DUKE (6-6)
Cincinnati 31 - DUKE 30—Cincy finished 9-3 and in 4-way tie for first place
in the Big East. It’s the fourth time in past five years the Bearcats have captured
at least a share of the title, but L’Ville earned a spot in the Sugar Bowl by virtue
of its BCS ranking. Cincy is seeking 10 wins for the 5th time in last 6 years. But
as has been the pattern lately, Bearcat HC Butch Jones (taking over at
Tennessee) is the third consecutive coach (following Mark Dantonio & Brian
Kelly) to leave after three seasons for a higher profile job. Defensive line coach
Steve Stripling is interim coach, with Tommy Tuberville taking over. It’s a much
different deal for ascending Duke, which is “bowling” for the first time since
1994! And while the Bearcats triumphed in 4 of their last 5 games, the 6-6 Blue
Devils are limping in on the heels of 4-game losing streak, following their
bowl clinching 33-30 home upset vs. rival North Carolina way back on Oct. 20.
The Cincy offense (30 ppg) got a needed spark from the midseason QB
change from struggling Munchie Legaux to 6-4 sr. Brandon Kay (966 YP,
61.9%, 6 TDs, 2 ints.; 3-1 as starter), who is more adept on the deep ball. His
favorite target is TE Travis Kelce (40 grabs, 7 TDC), while RB George Winn (Big
East-best 1204 YR, 5.3 ypc) powers the ground assault. Cincy did lose one of
its top deep threats, WR Damon Julian (4 TDs), to season-ending ankle injury
in reg.-season finale vs. UConn.
The speedy Bearcat defense (18 ppg), spearheaded by LBs
Greg Blair & Maalik Bomar (combined 198 tackles) held its last
4 foes to a meager 11.8 ppg. But we are still reluctant to
support the Bearcats, who represent the inferior Big East conference.
The finely-tuned Duke offense (29 ppg) is led by confident
sr. QB Sean Renfree (holds or shares 14 school records), who
takes full advantage of a trio of prime-time WRs—record-breaking
Conner Vernon (ACC career leader in receptions), first-team all ACC Jamison Crowder
(70 grabs, 8 TDs) & dependable Desmond Scott (61). The Blue Devils’ flourishing pass attack
is wellequipped to trade all the way vs. the Bearcat secondary, which
faced precious few quality aerial assaults in the Big East. In fact,
Cincy lost 37-34 in OT to the league’s No. 1 passing team,
Louisville and dynamic QB Teddy Bridgewater, who is ranked
below the aforementioned Renfree.
In addition, depth-shy Duke, which wore down defensively
down the stretch, will reportedly be in much better physical
condition following the prolonged layoff. And Blue Devils’
shrewd HC David Cutlcliffe (ACC Coach of the Year) is bound
to unveil some wrinkles after recently mentioning some
position changes. Plus, Duke is absolutely thrilled to be
playing in nearby Charlotte, which is the home of 16 of its
players (29 are from the state). Blue Devils also own STs edge
with deadly K Ross Martin (18 of 20 FGs) & strong-legged P
Will Monday (44 yd. avg.). So, good bet Cincy falls to 2-8 vs.
the spread in its last 10 bowl games.
HOLIDAY BOWL
BAYLOR (7-5) vs. UCLA (9-4)
Ucla 45 - Baylor 38—First ever meeting between schools each playing for
the first time in the Holiday Bowl. UCLA’s demanding first-year HC Jim Mora
brought some swagger to his (9-4) squad, which had languished under
predecessor Rick Neuheisel, who went 21-29 in his four mostly futile seasons.
The Bruins were 9-2 before losing back-to-back games to rough and tough
Stanford in the reg.-season finale & Pac-12 Title game. Although UCLA missed
game-tying 52-yd. FG attempt in the closing minute of that Rose Bowl-deciding
27-24 loss at Palo Alto, word is Bruins have shaken it off and are excited to play
in nearby San Diego. After a choppy 4-5 start, Baylor closed on a 3-game win
streak, with impressive upset victories in Waco over No. 1 ranked Kansas State
and then-24th-ranked Oklahoma State. The Bears are competing in
postseason outside their home state for the first time since 1991!
The high-octane Baylor offense (nation-leading 578.8 ypg; 44.1 ppg) is
proficiently directed by sr. QB Nick Florence (61%, 31 TDs, 13 ints.), who
admirably filled the big shoes left by LY’s Heisman Trophy winner & TY’s prime
candidate for NFL rookie of the year, RG III. His No. 1 target is scintillating WR
Terrance Williams (95 catches for school-record 1764 yards; 12 TDs), while the
ground game picked up steam down the stretch, thanks to speedy RB Lache
Seastrunk, who had 489 YR over the last 3 games.
But we’re not convinced the Baylor offense automatically picks up where it left vs. UCLA’s
veteran, sack-happy, 3-4 defense (26 ppg; 43 sacks), spearheaded by LBs Anthony Barr (nationleading 13½ sacks; 20½ TFL) & soph Eric Kendricks (137 tackles). The seasoned Bruin secondary surprisingly allowed too many big plays, but confidence is not lacking in sr. CBs Aaron Hester & Sheldon Price, who’re out to improve their NFL stock. Two-year starting soph FS Tevin McDonald (79 tackles, 10 PBU) is solid.
On the other hand, the Bruins’ diversified spread attack (35 ppg) should continue to excel vs. the undersized, leaky Bear defense ranked 119th in total yards (513.9 ypg), 118th in pass yds. (324 ypg), and 114th in scoring (38.2 ppg), with a paltry 13 sacks. UCLA’s marvelous RS frosh dual-threat QB Brett Hundley (68.2%, 26 TDP; 365 YR & 9 TDs) & top targets WR Shaquelle Evans (53 grabs) & TE Joseph Fauria (40 receptions for 11 TDs) are well-equipped to exploit a Baylor secondary that gave up 362 YP to SMU, 656 to West Virignia (yes, 656), 381 to Iowa State, 359 to Texas Tech (OK, it was in OT) & 332 to Oklahoma State. The Bruins’ dazzling sr. RB James Franklin—the school’s all-time leading rusher—is eager to end his memorable career with an exclamation point. Also, Baylor owns a shakier kicking game with unreliable Aaron Jones (16 of 27 FGs), so we envision well-supported UCLA reaching the coveted 10-win plateau for the first time since 2005. Recommend the “over,” since the squads are a combined 17-7 “over” TY
