Betting UFC 155: Dos Santos-Velaszuez

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]UFC 155: Dos Santos-Velasquez[/h][h=3]Finding betting value in all of the UFC 155 fights[/h]
By John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER
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In one of the most anticipated rematches in the history of the UFC, two of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport will be facing off again on one of the best UFC cards of the year. This time it will be heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos defending his title against contender (and previous belt holder) Cain Velasquez. Given the multidimensional skill sets of each fighter and the endless speculation about how this fight could be different from the first match, we'll dive into the stats behind this marquee matchup to see where the value is in this line and others for UFC 155.



<center>[h=3]Junior dos Santos (minus-175) vs. Cain Velasquez (plus-155)[/h]</center>
While most of the attention heading into this event will be on Dos Santos' undefeated run in the UFC, culminating in the heavyweight title via knockout of Cain Velasquez in their first fight, what few will be aware of are the unrivaled statistics that Velasquez has put up in every fight other than his single career loss to Dos Santos.
<offer>Most impressive is that Velasquez holds the record in perhaps MMA's single most important efficiency measure, strikes landed per minute (SLpM), having successfully imposed a rate of 7.47 in his career, the highest in UFC history. While that may immediately make readers think that Velasquez should clearly be a good value here as an underdog given his historical efficiency, the holder of the No. 2 all-time SLpM record is Dos Santos, who has an almost as impressive career 6.87 SLpM.

Velasquez has amassed most of this efficiency from the top position, using his superior wrestling and unparalleled 6.61 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Again, while this may seem like a significant advantage for Velasquez, Dos Santos holds an equally as impressive 88 percent takedown defense rate. With Velasquez's standup still improving, and with Dos Santos possessing some of the best boxing ability in MMA, if Velasquez can't take Dos Santos down, then it appears that he'll find himself in the same trouble exchanging on the feet he faced the first time.

Add to this that Dos Santos has won 11 out of his 16 career fights by knockout, and the fact that he is the solid favorite at -175 makes sense. However, Cain has all of the ability to take this fight to the ground at some point, in which case the plus-155 seems like the right price for this possibility as well, leaving no value for either of these greats in what should be a classic rematch.

Insider's value pick: Stay away



<center>[h=3]Jim Miller (minus-260) vs. Joe Lauzon (plus-180)[/h]</center>
Before fighting Nate Diaz, Miller had never been finished in a fight. Against Diaz, however, he was overwhelmed by a volume boxing style and finally submitted on the ground for the first time in his career. With Miller usually looking for the takedown, he may have found himself standing a little too long against Diaz out of caution for Diaz's ability off of his back. Against Lauzon, he'll be facing a very similar predicament.

Lauzon is so impressive with submissions, especially from off of his back, that he holds the record for the second-most submissions attempted per 15 minutes in UFC history, at 4.17. Lauzon, however, isn't just a submission specialist, as he can also hold his own with ever improving boxing skills, landing 2.33 strikes per minute. While Miller also has a nearly identical 2.27 SLpM, most of this production has come from his ability to get on top of opponents and land strikes from top position. Given Lauzon's ability to challenge Miller on both the feet and from his back, he may just hold the perfect combination that gave Miller so much trouble against Diaz.

Looking back on that fight, Diaz was able to impose a 47 percent significant strike accuracy percentage against Miller, who was only able to land 35 percent. While Lauzon may not be as impressive as Diaz standing, he definitely possesses a similar advantage against Miller as Diaz did, and furthermore, has a more voluminous and dangerous submission game than Diaz does, having closed out 18 out of 22 of his victories in this manner. Miller may historically be the better all-around fighter, but with such a stylistic similarity to Diaz, Lauzon is a terrific value at plus-180.

Insider's value pick: Lauzon



<center>[h=3]Melvin Guillard (minus-115) vs. Jamie Varner (minus-105)[/h]</center>
It'd be hard to find a more exciting knockout artist in the UFC than Guillard. With 19 out of his 30 career wins by knockout, any fight with Guillard has the potential of ending at any moment. In addition, Guillard holds the record for the third-most knockdowns landed in UFC history, with 12. Against Varner, however, Guillard may have a harder time finding the knockout.

The most important statistic in breaking down this matchup is that Varner has never been knocked out before in his career, having never lost by KO/TKO in 30 fights. In fact, the only weakness that Varner has seemed to have in his history has been in getting submitted, which represents the majority of his losses. And if there is one area where Guillard does not excel, it's in submitting opponents, never having won a fight in this manner in his seven-year UFC career. Varner also has a terrific ability of getting his opponents to the ground, averaging 3.66 takedowns per 15 minutes.

While Guillard does possess a very good 69 percent takedown defense, Varner hasn't had trouble outwrestling opponents with very good takedown defenses in the past. Consider his fight against then unbeaten Edson Barboza, who possesses a 75 percent takedown defense, and against whom Varner landed 100 percent of his takedown in his first-round victory. With Varner having the ability to close out this fight definitively, and with Guillard's strength severely limited by Varner's wrestling ability and immunity to knockouts, consider Varner a great bet to win this fight as a slight -105 underdog.

Insider's value pick: Varner



<center>[h=3]Chris Leben (minus-165) vs. Derek Brunson (plus-125)[/h]</center>
Leben is one of the better-known names in the UFC, most notable for his aggressive game plan and go-for-broke style. And while his name will gain him the status as a favorite heading into this one, the lesser-known Brunson will be a more than formidable opponent coming off of a very impressive run in the Strikeforce organization.

While it isn't very likely that Leben will be looking to take this fight to the ground, one of Brunson's most impressive statistics is his perfect 100 percent takedown defense. He also has a solid 2.13 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, which he may very likely use to put Leben on his back, especially since Leben possesses a pedestrian 54 percent takedown defense. While Brunson might want to take this fight to the ground, we know that Leben will be angling for a knockout, gaining more than half of his victories in this manner. While Brunson most recently was knocked out for the first time by Ronaldo Souza, one of his other most impressive statistics is his striking defense, in which he only absorbs an extremely low 0.71 strikes per minute (SApM). Compare this to Leben, who takes a barrage of strikes on average (2.68 SApM), and Brunson may be able to get the best of Leben all around.

With the aging Leben having lost two out of his last three fights, it seems likely that he drops another one here to the rising star Brunson in his UFC debut. Consider the younger Brunson at plus-125 a great value as a slight upset on Saturday night.

Insider's value pick: Brunson
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Jr Dos Santos is such a beast.. He is a totally different guy in the octagon than in normal life.. he isn't mean acting or whatever he just is precise and uses lots of tools and studying his opponent to capitalize on weaknesses.

-murph
 

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I'm kinda surprised JDS isn't a bigger fav. He is far superior on his feet and even if Cain takes him down he can probably just get backup. Just how the last fight went its hard to believe anyone is dying to bet Cain at +160 or so.
 

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The over 1.5 is a LOCK

Cain will be very careful, at least in the first round. IMO there will be no action, just dancing around for quite a while
 

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