Service Plays Saturday 12/29/12

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UFC 155 betting: dos Santos fave in rematch with Velasquez

UFC 155: Junior dos Santos (-150) vs. Cain Velasquez (+120)

It’s the fight we’ve all been waiting for, as UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos and former champ Cain Velasquez are set to collide in the main event of UFC 155.

The bout is a rematch of the pair’s first fight, which took place at UFC on FOX 1, when dos Santos knocked out Velasquez in 64 seconds to win the title on November 12, 2011.

Since that time, dos Santos has defended his belt once against Frank Mir at UFC 146 last May while Velasquez also picked up a big win over Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva on the same card to become the No. 1 contender, with Alistair Overeem still out due to a drug suspension.

The fight between dos Santos and Velasquez comes down to one question: Can dos Santos stop the takedown?

We all know that Velasquez will be looking to take this fight to the mat to work his wrestling and his ground-and-pound, and dos Santos is going to do everything he can to keep the fight standing and use his superior striking to score the knockout blow.

Velasquez, who is known for his cardio, will be relentless with his takedown attempts. However, dos Santos has shown incredible takedown defense so far in his UFC career and he’s a BJJ black belt. So, even if the fight does hit the mat, he has promised he can score the submission victory.

If the fight stays standing, there’s no doubt that dos Santos has the edge. While both men possess big-time power, dos Santos has some of the best boxing in the sport of MMA today and if Velasquez doesn’t protect himself, the result of their first meeting could easily happen again.

That’s why Velasquez needs to get the takedowns. He needs to get dos Santos on his back and he needs to do everything he can to win this fight and get his belt back. But dos Santos will surely have something to say about that.

Junior dos Santos will have 25 minutes to land one punch on Cain Velasquez and put his lights out. Come Saturday's main event, he’s going to do just that, finishing the former champ yet again while cementing his place as the undisputed No. 1 heavyweight in the world.

T. C0VERS
10* Alamo Bowl CFB
Texas

POINTWISE PHONES:

4* Navy

3* Mich St

2* Oreg St

BEST OF LUCK

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: What bettors need to know

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Michigan State Spartans (+2.5, 40.5)

WHEN: 10:15 PM ET, Saturday, December 29, 2012
WHERE: Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, Arizona

BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL STORYLINES

1. A pair of sturdy defenses and Michigan State junior running back Le'Veon Bell will take center stage when a battle of teams which finished below .500 in conference play meet in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl at Tempe, Ariz. The teams should feel more comfortable on the road as neither won a conference game at home.

2. Texas Christian and Michigan State had high hopes for 2012 after racking up 11 wins apiece last season, but things didn't quite materialize. Michigan State dropped five conference games by a combined 11 points while TCU lost starting quarterback Casey Pachall after the fourth game of the season when he left school and checked into a rehab program for substance abuse after being arrested for DWI.

3. Bell ran for 587 yards in his final three games, including a monstrous 266 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota to cap the regular season. The Spartans' formula is simple - control the ball with Bell and rely on their powerful defense which ranked fourth in the nation at 274 yards per game. TCU is no slouch on that side of the ball either as the Horned Frogs ranked 18th in the country in total defense.

TV: 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: TCU opened as a 1-point favorite and was bet up to -2.5. The total opened at 41.5 and has come down to 40.5.

CONSENSUS: 61 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on TCU while 56 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast in Tempe is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 40s. Winds are expected to blow ESE at 2 mph.

TRENDS:

* Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four Bowl games.
* Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Big 12.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Horned Frogs' last seven bowl games.
* Under is 3-0-1 in Spartans' last four non-conference games.

ABOUT TCU (7-5, 4-5 Big 12, 5-7 ATS): The Horned Frogs wound up 10th in the conference in total offense and lost three of their next four games after Pachall left the team. That put the burden of running the offense on the shoulders of freshman quarterback Trevone Boykin. Pachall was 15-2 in his career and threw 25 touchdown passes last season, giving TCU plenty of hope for 2012. When he was gone, the Horned Frogs had to throw Boykin into the fire and he threw three interceptions in his first start. Boykin rebounded with a fabulous four-touchdown game against Baylor, but then battled with his consistency the rest of the season. The Horned Frogs had a signature 20-13 victory at Texas late in the season in a game when Boykin threw only nine passes.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (6-6, 3-5 Big Ten, 4-8 ATS): The Spartans defeated Georgia 33-30 in the Outback Bowl last season, but exceeded that point total only once in 2012. Michigan State ranked ninth in total offense in the Big Ten. Bell, however, seemed to get stronger as the year went along and finished with 1,638 yards on the ground, good for sixth in the nation. Andrew Maxwell completed only 53 percent of his passes this year as the receiving unit was labeled as one of the most unreliable corps in the nation. With top wideout Keshawn Martin now playing for the Houston Texans, the Spartans dropped passes at an alarming rate. Michigan State flashed its enormous potential with wins over Boise State and at Wisconsin, which is headed to the Rose Bowl, but it needed a win in its season-finale to even become bowl eligible. Tight end Dion Sims, who went over 100 yards receiving twice this season, will play after recovering from an ankle injury.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: What bettors need to know

Navy Midshipmen vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (-14, 56)

WHEN: 4:00 PM ET, Saturday, December 29, 2012
WHERE: AT&T Park, San Francisco, California

KRAFT FIGHT HUNGER BOWL STORYLINES

1. Navy and Arizona State head to San Francisco for their first meeting on a high note, having knocked off archrivals in their respective regular-season finales. The Midshipmen took care of Army for the 11th straight time while the Sun Devils defeated fellow bowl-bound Arizona in Tucson.

2. As usual, Navy showcases a formidable ground game. It produced 275.6 rushing yards per game, sixth in the country. Arizona State also faced the third-ranked rushing unit in Oregon. Although the style and talent level between the Midshipmen and Ducks are not the same, it is worth noting that the Sun Devils gave up 406 yards on the ground against Oregon.

3. Junior Marion Grice was a potent force in the running and passing game for the Sun Devils, posting remarkably similar numbers in both realms. Grice had 520 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground while gaining 406 yards and eight TDs through the air. His 17 scores leave him one shy of moving into the top five on Arizona State's all-time single-season touchdown list.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Arizona State opened at -14.5 and has since come down to -14. The total has moved from 56 to 54.5.

CONSENSUS: 55 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on ASU while 58 percent is on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast in San Francisco is calling for a 41 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the high 40s. Winds are expected to blow NW at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Midshipmen are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Bowl games.
* Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Midshipmen's last seven Bowl games.
* Under is 11-5 in Sun Devils' last 16 non-conference games.

ABOUT NAVY (8-4, 4-8 ATS): The vaunted rushing attack sputtered early as the Midshipmen began the year 1-3. However, things turned around once freshman Keenan Reynolds took over under center for the injured Trey Miller. Reynolds threw for three touchdowns in his first start Oct. 12 at Central Michigan. He finished the regular season with 628 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns while passing for 884 yards and eight TDs. From the time Reynolds took over late in an overtime affair against Air Force, Navy went 7-1. The Midshipmen made eight straight bowl game appearances before falling short in 2011. They have lost four of their last five bowl games.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (7-5, 5-4 Pac-12, 7-5 ATS): It was a bit of a roller coaster ride for the Sun Devils in coach Todd Graham's first season. After opening 5-1, they lost four straight to the best the Pac-12 has to offer, only to rebound with consecutive wins to finish it out, including a wild 41-34 victory over the Wildcats. Arizona State scored 24 straight points in the fourth quarter of that one. It was actually the only game all season in which sophomore Taylor Kelly failed to throw for a touchdown. Kelly ranked third in the Pac-12 in passing efficiency this season, helping the Sun Devils score 36.4 points, also third-best in the league. Defensive tackle Will Sutton was the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year and will be instrumental if Arizona State is going to slow down Navy's option attack.

Pinstripe Bowl: What bettors need to know

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Syracuse Orange (+3.5, 73.5)

WHEN: 3:15 PM ET, Saturday, December 29, 2012
WHERE: New Yankee Stadium, New York, New York

NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL STORYLINES

1. West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith has 96 career touchdown passes, 40 this season, but has only three scoring strikes while throwing five interceptions and being sacked nine times in losses to Syracuse in 2010 and 2011.

2. Syracuse has averaged 38.5 points in winning five of its last six games and the Mountaineers are giving up 38.1 overall –114th out of 120 FBS teams. Syracuse scored 49 points against West Virginia in 2011 and leads the series 32-27.

3. West Virginia makes its 11th straight bowl appearance, tied for the nation’s eighth-longest streak, and is 14-17 overall. Syracuse is 13-9-1 in bowls, including a 36-34 victory over Kansas State in the inaugural Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in 2010.

TV: 3:15 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: West Virginia opened as a 4-point favorite and has been bet down to -3.5. The total has stayed remotely steady at 73.5.

CONSENSUS: 66 percent of Covers Consensus is on WVU while 62 percent is on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast for Yankee Stadium is calling for an 88 percent chance of snow with temperatures in the low 30s. Winds are expected to NNE at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Syracuse. The Orange are the home team in this Bronx bowl game.
* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (7-5, 4-5 Big 12, 5-7 ATS): Smith put up some amazing numbers this season, completing 71.4 percent of his passes and throwing for 4,004 yards with only six interceptions. However, the Mountaineers allowed an average of almost 50 points during a five-game losing streak to derail their season. West Virginia rebounded to win their last two and two of the nation’s top receivers, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, will be looking to put on a show against the Orange. Bailey has caught 106 passes for 1,501 yards and 23 touchdowns this season. Austin has 110 receptions for 1,259 yards and 12 touchdowns, while rushing for 598. Andrew Buie leads the ground attack with 817 yards. West Virginia gave up only 34 points combined in the last two games.

ABOUT SYRACUSE (7-5, 5-2 Big East, 6-5-1 ATS): The Orange turned it on down the stretch, including a big comeback at South Florida and wins over Louisville and Missouri. Syracuse, which finished tied for first in the Big East this season after tying for last in 2011, averaged only 13 points in three games before beating Connecticut 40-10 to start its run. Quarterback Ryan Nassib has 13 touchdown passes and one interception over the last six games after 11 and eight, respectively, the first six. Nassib’s top target is Alec Lemon, who caught 70 passes for 1,063 yards. Marcus Sales has also caught 63 passes for 863 yards. Jerome Smith has 1,019 yards rushing overall and an average of 110.7 the last six. Syracuse has allowed an average of 28.8 points the last five games.

Armed Forces Bowl: What bettors need to know

Rice Owls vs. Air Force Falcons (-3, 61.5)

WHEN: 11:45 AM ET, Saturday, December 29, 2012
WHERE: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas

BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL STORYLINES

1. Rice and Air Force enter the contest with mediocre records, but they took differing routes to get there. The Owls won four in a row and five of their last six contests to secure a berth in their first bowl game since 2008. Playing the final 10 weeks without a break, the exhausted Falcons were outscored 124-66 en route to losing three of their last four to limp toward the end of the season.

2. Ironically, Air Force attacks on the ground with its one-dimension offense. Led by diminutive senior Cody Getz (1,219 yards, nine touchdowns), coach Troy Calhoun's triple-option offense averages 328.8 rushing yards - a gaudy number which ranks second-best in the nation. Considering that Rice yields nearly 193 rushing yards per game, the Owls could be in for a long day.

3. Rice's offense features a more balanced game plan as junior quarterback Taylor McHargue has both thrown and rushed for 11 touchdowns this season. Charles Ross is averaging a team-best 5.7 yards per carry and 743 yards total. The Owls amassed 381 points and 5,053 yards of total offense - with both numbers ranking behind only the 2008 club in program history.

TV: 11:45 a.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Air Force opened as low as +1 and has since been bet up to -3. The total has moved from as low as 60.5 to 62 points.

CONSENSUS: 65 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Air Force while 53 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast in Forth Worth is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 40s. Winds are expected to blow NNW at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. CUSA.
* Under is 7-3 in Owls' last 10 non-conference games.
* Under is 6-2 in Falcons' last eight games overall.

ABOUT RICE (6-6, 4-4 Conference USA, 7-4-1 ATS): Cody Bauer, among others, will be charged with deciphering the triple-option offense. Bauer leads the Owls in tackles for loss and is tied with fellow defensive end Jared Williams for the team lead with 5.5 sacks. Offensively, Jordan Taylor (48 receptions, 673 yards) and Sam McGuffie (49, 523) have proven consistent for McHargue. In addition, first team All-Conference USA selection Vance McDonald has come on strong since returning from a toe injury. Rice will be playing in its third bowl game since a postseason drought from 1961-2006. The Owls won their last bowl appearance in 2008 by taking the Texas Bowl.

ABOUT AIR FORCE (6-6, 5-3 Mountain West, 3-9 ATS): While the rushing attack secures the headlines, Ty MacArthur is traditionally the one responsible when Air Force takes to the air. The junior wideout has a team-high 411 receiving yards and two scores - although he has matched the touchdown total and surpassed the yardage (419) on the ground. Air Force has won five of the last six meetings between the former WAC members, although the last encounter took place in 1998. The Falcons, who will be playing in their school-record sixth consecutive bowl game, have plenty of experience playing in the Armed Forces Bowl. After dropping its first two appearances, Air Force posted a 47-20 triumph over Houston in the recent meeting in 2009.

Study group: Saturday's Top 25 NCAAB betting notes

Saturday has a full board of betting choices for college basketball fans. Check out our quick-hitting notes on all the Top 25 action:

Western Michigan Broncos at North Carolina State Wolfpack (-19, 144)

Coach Mark Gottfried has No. 25 North Carolina State clicking and his team will try to extend its win streak to six games – matching the longest in his tenure – when the Wolfpack host Western Michigan on Saturday. NC State began the season as the highest-ranked team in the Atlantic Coast Conference, but losses to Oklahoma State in Puerto Rico and a road setback against No.2 Michigan threatened its top-25 status. The Wolfpack have since run off five straight wins, including victories over Connecticut and Stanford, scoring at least 80 points in each of the last four. They will attempt to move to 7-0 at home this season against the Broncos, who have dropped three of their last five despite a 87-66 victory over Mount St. Mary’s last Saturday.

Santa Clara Broncos at Duke Blue Devils (-20, 147)

It has been a month since top-ranked Duke faced a serious challenge. Santa Clara hopes to end that trend Saturday when it puts a six-game win streak on the line against the unbeaten Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium. After a pair of five-point wins over powerhouses Louisville and Ohio State at the end of November, Duke has won four December games by an average of 31 points. The closest of those contests came the last time out, a 76-54 win over Elon on Dec. 20. That was the Blue Devils' 100th consecutive non-conference win at home. It also left them 11-0 for the ninth time under coach Mike Krzyzewski. The Broncos are coming off a 69-45 win over Wagner in the title game of the Cable Car Classic last Saturday.

UNLV Runnin' Rebels at North Carolina Tar Heels (-4.5, 160)

No. 17 UNLV, which has won nine straight games since losing at home to Oregon, 83-79, on Nov. 23, makes its first trip to the Dean Smith Center to face North Carolina, which has won four of its last five games. The Tar Heels lead the all-time series 3-1 but the Runnin' Rebels won the last meeting last year at the Orleans Arena in the championship game of the Las Vegas Invitational, 90-80. That was UNLV's first win over the nation's top-ranked team in 22 years and the first time a Mountain West school ever defeated a team ranked No. 1 in both polls. The previous four meetings between these teams were played on neutral courts, including North Carolina's 84-83 win over the Rebels in the 1977 Final Four in Atlanta.

Auburn Tigers at Illinois Fighting Illini (-12, 131)

No. 15 Illinois tries to rebound from its first loss when it plays Auburn at the United Center in Chicago on Saturday. First-year coach John Groce’s Fighting Illini fell 82-73 to Missouri in the “Braggin’ Rights” game in St. Louis last Saturday despite Brandon Paul’s 23 points. Illinois still leads the nation in 3-pointers per game (9.8) and shoots 37.3 percent from beyond the arc. The Tigers are coming off a 74-67 home loss to Winthrop last Saturday that snapped a three-game win streak. Auburn hit 3-of-23 from deep in the loss.

Kentucky Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals (-8, 135)

No. 23 Kentucky looks to make it five straight wins over archrival and No. 3 Louisville when the Wildcats visit the Cardinals on Saturday. The in-state foes met in last season’s Final Four, Kentucky winning 69-61 en route to the national championship. Louisville appears to be the stronger squad this season. The Cardinals have won six straight by an average of 25.5 points, their only loss this season coming by five points to top-ranked Duke. Kentucky, which has posted four straight blowout wins after consecutive losses to Notre Dame and Baylor, leads the all-time series with Louisville 30-14.

Air Force Falcons at Florida Gators (-19, 131)

After falling short in its last two trips outside the Sunshine State, one can understand why Florida is relishing some home cookin'. Although its last loss was technically a "neutral site" game, the 11th-ranked Gators will look to remain undefeated at home when they host Air Force on Saturday as part of the MetroPCS Orange Bowl Classic. Florida suffered a 67-61 setback to Kansas State last Saturday after shooting a dismal 5-for-19 from 3-point range - including a combined 2-for-12 effort from guards Mike Rosario, Kenny Boynton and Scottie Wilbekin. The Gators will look for a better showing when they face the Falcons, who posted their second straight victory with a 61-53 triumph over UC Riverside last Saturday.

Chicago State Cougars at Ohio State Buckeyes (-37, 141)

Ohio State will try to rebound from its second loss this season when the No. 10 Buckeyes host Chicago State on Saturday afternoon. Ohio State lost to No. 6 Kansas last weekend, 74-66, shooting 31 percent from the floor. The Buckeyes will likely continue to lean on 6-7 junior forward Deshaun Thomas, the Big Ten scoring leader at 20 points. He’s been the model of consistency, scoring at least 14 in every game, making a least two 3-pointers in all but one and shooting 85.7 percent from the free-throw line. The Cougars don’t have a go-to player on offense. Just one averages double figures in scoring and none have scored more than 20 points in a game this season. Jeremy Robinson leads Chicago State at 10.4 points, followed by Clarke Rosenberg (9.6), Matt Ross (9.4) and Quinton Pippen (9.1). Three others average between 7.2 and 7.9 points.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Michigan Wolverines (-29, 137)

After a nine-day break, second-ranked Michigan will return to action Saturday night against visiting Central Michigan in hopes of extending the second-best start in school history. At 12-0, the Wolverines are off to their best start since a school-record 16-0 beginning to the 1985-86 season, which also marked the last time the Wolverines went undefeated in non-conference play - something they can achieve with a win over the Chippewas. Central Michigan split a pair of games in the Sun Bowl Invitational last week in El Paso, falling to Nebraska (89-75) and beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff (62-45). The Wolverines have won 20 of 23 all-time meetings, though they later vacated one victory because of NCAA sanctions. Central Michigan won the most recent contest, 78-67 in Ann Arbor on Dec. 15, 2007.

Alcorn State Braves at Syracuse Orange (N/A)

A number of streaks – both impressive and embarrassing – figure to get extended on Saturday when No. 7 Syracuse hosts Alcorn State as part of the Gotham Classic. The Orange suffered their first loss of the season last Saturday against Temple at Madison Square Garden due in large part to poor foul shooting. However, Syracuse returns to the Carrier Dome for this contest, where it has won a school-record 31 straight overall and 41 in a row over non-conference opponents. Those two streaks – the former of which is the longest active streak in the country – should increase against the Braves, who have dropped 81 consecutive non-conference road games. Alcorn State, which has dropped eight straight by an average of 16.6 points, suffered its latest humiliating road loss in an 87-74 setback at Canisius on Thursday.

Butler Bulldogs at Vanderbilt Commodores (+4.5, 124)

No. 21 Butler, which followed its upset of then-No. 1 Indiana with a solid win over Evansville, goes for its seventh straight victory when it visits Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Bulldogs handled the Purple Aces 75-67 last Saturday behind 20 points each from senior center Andrew Smith and senior guard Rotnei Clarke. The rebuilding Commodores are coming off a 56-52 neutral-site loss to Middle Tennessee State in which they were outrebounded 34-25. Vandy ranks 305th nationally in scoring (60.3).

American U. Eagles at Kansas Jayhawks (N/A)

No. 6 Kansas returns to action for the first time since an impressive 74-66 road victory at then-No. 7 Ohio State on Dec. 22. The Jayhawks have won 28 straight games in Allen Fieldhouse, the second-longest winning streak in the nation behind Syracuse's 29 in a row. Kansas and American are playing for just the second time in men's basketball with the other matchup coming during the Jayhawks' 1988 NCAA National Championship season. The Jayhawks cruised to a 90-69 victory in that one at Allen Fieldhouse. The Jayhawks have shot 50 percent or better from the field in each of their last five games and lead the Big 12 in field goal percentage (49.3).

Evansville Purple Aces at Creighton Bluejays (-15, 143)

Creighton opens its quest for its first Missouri Valley Conference regular-season title since 2008-09 when it hosts Evansville on Saturday. The Bluejays were the overwhelming favorites to capture the crown in the league's preseason poll, but now the team has to prove it on the court. Creighton comes into the game on a five-game winning streak, including a 17-point home win over Tulsa on Dec. 19 in its last game. The Purple Aces dropped their last game, but it was an eight-point defeat at Butler in which Evansville played well. The play in the early going of this one could be a little ragged, with both teams excited to start conference play and having gone at least seven days between contests.

Marc lawrence
bowl goy navy 10*

CFB

Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth)
Have to wonder if a bowl is lame when it starts at 10:45am local time; any oddity like that favors an academy team, since they’re trained not to let distractions bother them. Rice had to win last four games just to get to 6-6 and be eligible for this; not only didn’t Owls have any solid wins, they beat Kansas 25-24, Tulane 49-47, two awful teams. Rice is 5-2-1 vs spread as an underdog. Fourth time in six years in this bowl for Flyboys, who lost two of prior three visits; they’re 2-3 in bowls under Calhoun, with losses by combined total of nine points. Falcons are 1-6 vs spread as a favorite this year. Never liked one-dimensional teams in bowls; other side has too much time to prepare for it. Rice is in a bowl for first time in four years (beat Western Michigan 38-14 in ’08 Texas Bowl), so both sides figure to be enthused, but Owls allowed 5.1 yards/rush, could have trouble stopping the option, even with the extra prep time. Air Force lost to UNLV/Army, so they’re not very good, though they also lost 31-25 at Michigan. Rice scored 33+ points in five of its six wins. Air Force is 1-5 away from home, with only win 28-27 (-3) at Wyoming. Dogs won this bowl SU last three years, with four of last five decided by six or less points.

Fight Hunger Bowl (San Francisco)
Arizona State started season 5-1, then lost next four games, allowing 40.5 ppg, before winning last two games 46-7/41-34; they’re 5-1 vs spread as favorites under first-year Coach Graham (favorites are 9-2 vs spread in ASU games this year). Again, do not like one-dimensional offenses in bowls- too much time to prepare to stop/contain them, but Middies have covered 13 of last 17 when getting points. Navy coach Niumatalolo is 1-3 in bowls (2-2 vs spread). Well-traveled Graham won three of four bowls for three different schools. Navy’s big games are Army/Air Force plus they played Notre Dame in Ireland, so this might not be as big a deal to them as it is to Sun Devils. Middies were 3-3 as dogs this year, covering last three tries. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in this bowl last eight years; losing side scored 13 or 14 points four of last five Hunger Bowls; damp Bay Area weather and odd configuration of field in a baseball stadium doesn’t lend itself to high scoring action. ASU lost last three bowls, allowing 41-52-56 points. Navy lost four of last five bowls (3-2 vs spread). Pac-12 teams are 2-3 in this bowl.

Pinstripe Bowl (Bronx)
Holgorson hung 70 on Clemson in first bowl as HC (won 70-33); West Virginia’s offense is so potent, they won games this year while allowing 63-45-34 points; they also lost games scoring 38-34-49 points (all in consecutive weeks), so potential winter weather doesn’t figure to help them. Syracuse lost 42-29 to USC in Swamp Stadium across river back in September; you’d think they’d have a home crowd edge here, but Syracuse alums back basketball team more than football, especially for an outdoor game (Orangemen play in a dome). Syracuse beat K-State in this bowl two years ago, its only bowl game since 2004; they won last three games to get here, scoring 45-31-38 points. Bowl game in Bronx on December 29 figures to be cold/wintry. Big East teams are 6-0 in this bowl (four of six wins vs lowly MAC), but West Virginia was a Big East team until this year, and Syracuse won’t be one after this year. Favorites are 3-1 here (game was pick ‘em last two years), with surprisingly high average total of 55.2 in bowl history.

Alamo Bowl (San Antonio)
Texas is an underdog in the Alamo? Underachieving Longhorns are 4-4 in last eight games, losing last two to TCU/K-State; three of their eight wins were by six or less points, as jackals circle over Mack Brown, whose OC is new HC at Arkansas State. Texas is 1-2 as an underdog this year. Oregon State historically starts slow, but this year they were 3-0 in September, upsetting Wisconsin/UCLA/Arizona, so 9-3 finish was little disappointing, especially 20-17 loss at Washington; Beavers will start Vas at QB, as neither signal caller distinguished himself during 3-3 end to regular season. Beavers are 3-2 as a favorite this year. Big X teams won six of last seven Alamo Bowls; favorites covered four of last five, with only two of last nine Alamo Bowls decided by less than seven points. Both sides won four of last five bowls; Texas beat Iowa 26-24 in this game back in '06. Domed stadium takes elements out of play, encourages high scoring tilt; totals last seven years: 60-50-41-53-70-46-113 (average of 76.3 last three years). From everything I read, Mack Brown is not highly thought of as a tactician (recruited RGIII to play DB) while Riley has been HC in CFL/NFL. Coaching edge has to go to Oregon State.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (Tempe)
Michigan State limps in with 6-6 record, despite being favored in nine of 12 games; seven of their last eight games were decided by 4 or less points, with underdogs covering six of last seven. A 20-3 loss to Notre Dame is Spartans’ only loss by more than four points (2-0 as underdog). This is old Insight Bowl, where Big X team beat Big Dozen team five of last six years, but TCU is in first year in Big X; underdogs are 5-4 vs spread in this game the last nine years. TCU lost its QB early on in its first year in new, tougher league; they started out 4-0, then losing five of last eight games, scoring 10-20-17 points in last three. Horned Frogs are 1-3 as a favorite in ’12; this is first time they’re favored in game since October 6 vs Iowa State, game they lost 37-23 at home (-7)- they're 4-1 in last five bowls, but were favored in all five (1-4 vs spread). Spartans lost four of last five bowls, allowing 39.7 ppg in last three.

Mark Mayerr @ Gaming Today

Air Force PK vs. Rice: All the incentive is with Rice, especially with the game in Fort Worth. Plus the Falcons lost to Army. As the great Verne Lundquist would say, “my goodness!” RICE.

West Virginia -4 at Syracuse: The highlight is always the site, Yankee Stadium. Syracuse comes in playing the better ball and no school thrived more from the old Yankee Stadium games. SYRACUSE.

TCU -3 vs. Michigan St.: The game opened 1 and climbed two points. We’re following the money. The Horned Frogs under stud HC Gary Patterson just don’t receive the respect they deserve. TCU.

Richard Saber @ Gaming Today

Armed Forces at Ft. Worth, Texas

Air Force -1 vs. Rice (61): A game I really like. The Fly Boys lost all their weapons with the military budget cuts so no way they will be armed and dangerous. The Owls won their last four to get here and their last bowl was a win in 2008. RICE.

Fight Hunger at San Francisco

Navy +4½ vs. Ariz St. (58): The Midshipmen also were part of the cuts and I doubt they can sink anything but a row boat. The Sun Devils have way too much offense for the Navy to handle and finished the season with two big wins. ARIZ ST.

Pinstripe at Yankee Stadium

W. Virginia -4 vs. Syracuse (74): This game will be like the Babe taking batting practice just pounding the ball over the fence. The scoreboard may not be able to keep up with these two teams. WVU looked to be a power in the making but I think a hole in the wall defense caught up with them. The Orange had an outstanding season and finished it off going 3-0 both ATS and SU. Playing the game in the The Bronx is also a big plus. SYRACUSE/OVER.

Alamo at San Antonio

Oregon St. -2 vs. Texas (56½): I love San Antonio as I took my basic training there back in 1966 when going into the Air Force. I think I had a good time but can’t remember. Anyhow just can’t find the side to like so will go total. OVER.

Buffalo Wild Wings at Tempe, Ariz.

TCU -2½ vs. Mich St.: The Horned Frogs can come up with some big efforts as they beat Baylor, Texas Tech, West Virginia and Texas, and played Kansas State tough, losing 23-10. TCU.

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

12/29/12 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 1402-408 (.775)
ATS: 556-574 (.492)
ATS Vary Units: 2006-2178 (.479)
Over/Under: 160-152 (.513)
Over/Under Vary Units: 206-229 (.474)

Dr. Pepper Classic
at Chattanooga, TN
High Point 74, Austin Peay 73

Championship
CHATTANOOGA 72, Utah Valley 71

Gotham Classic
Round Robin at campus sites
DETROIT 81, Canisius 72
SYRACUSE 86, Alcorn State 49

UCF Holiday Classic
at Orlando, FL
Boston U. 63, Howard 51

Championship
Belmont 71, UCF 65

Big Sky Conference
SOUTHERN UTAH 74, Northern Colorado 72

Big West Conference
Cal Poly 62, UC RIVERSIDE 56
CAL STATE FULLERTON 78, UC Santa Barbara 74
HAWAI'I 83, Cal State Northridge 79
LONG BEACH STATE 73, Pacific 63
UC IRVINE 76, UC Davis 66

Missouri Valley Conference
BRADLEY 68, Drake 67
CREIGHTON 83, Evansville 65

Ohio Valley Conference
JACKSONVILLE STATE 65, Tennessee Tech 59
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI 83, UT Martin 63
TENNESSEE STATE 69, Eastern Illinois 52

Southland Conference
Stephen F. Austin 62, TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI 49

Summit League
NORTH DAKOTA STATE 70, South Dakota State 67
Oakland 81, Iupui 77
South Dakota 80, OMAHA 74
WESTERN ILLINOIS 66, Fort Wayne 51

Sun Belt Conference
Florida Atlantic 66, ULM 64
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 77, Fairleigh Dickinson 56
SOUTH ALABAMA 72, Arkansas State 69
UL LAFAYETTE 70, Ualr 68
WESTERN KENTUCKY 73, North Texas 62

Western Athletic Conference
LOUISIANA TECH 67, Denver 63
New Mexico State 68, UT ARLINGTON 67
SEATTLE 75, Idaho 74
TEXAS STATE 77, San Jose State 74
Utah State 70, UT SAN ANTONIO 69

Non-Conference
ARIZONA STATE 79, Coppin State 64
ARKANSAS 87, Northwestern State 77
BOSTON COLLEGE 62, Holy Cross 60
Byu 77, Virginia Tech 72
CALIFORNIA 68, Harvard 61
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE 72, Saint Peter's 65
COLORADO 71, Hartford 51
COLUMBIA 64, Manhattan 60
CONNECTICUT 74, Washington 67
Davidson vs. RICHMOND: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DePAUL 70, Loyola (Chicago) 62
DUKE 88, Santa Clara 61
EAST CAROLINA 77, Norfolk State 67
Fairfield 64, OLD DOMINION 60
Florida 73, Air Force 54
Florida State 71, Tulsa 63
GEORGIA 76, Florida A&M 54
Georgia State 61, GEORGIA SOUTHERN 60
GEORGIA TECH 69, Fordham 54
HOUSTON 79, Prairie View A&M 62
Illinois 72, Auburn 58
KANSAS 81, American 42
KANSAS STATE 80, Kansas City 54
La Salle 76, SIENA 60
LEHIGH 86, Bryant 60
Long Island 80, LAMAR 78
LOUISVILLE 70, Kentucky 65
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT 77, CSU Bakersfield 65
MARQUETTE 75, North Carolina Central 54
MARYLAND 80, Delaware State 55
Massachusetts 77, NORTHERN ILLINOIS 62
MICHIGAN 79, Central Michigan 52
MOUNT ST. MARY'S 75, Umbc 63
MURRAY STATE 70, Valparaiso 60
NC STATE 83, Western Michigan 61
NEBRASKA 74, Nicholls State 56
NORTH CAROLINA 82, Unlv 75
OHIO STATE 90, Chicago State 48
OKLAHOMA 67, Ohio 65
OREGON STATE 81, Towson 56
PENN STATE 73, Duquesne 65
PORTLAND 75, Texas-Pan American 60
PURDUE 72, William & Mary 57
Quinnipiac 73, MAINE 67
SAN DIEGO 73, Morgan State 65
SOUTH CAROLINA 76, Presbyterian 58
SOUTH FLORIDA 62, George Mason 55
STANFORD 83, Lafayette 60
TENNESSEE 65, Xavier 57
TEXAS 73, Rice 53
TEXAS A&M 73, Army 58
TOLEDO 64, Uic 63
UAB 73, Northeastern 66
UNC Wilmington 70, CAMPBELL 67
VANDERBILT 64, Butler 62
VCU 86, Fairleigh Dickinson 52
VERMONT 63, College of Charleston 57
WAGNER 66, Penn 54
Washington State 68, Idaho State 47
WISCONSIN 75, Samford 46