Top 10 rotations in MLB
Buster Olney
ESPN INSIDER
Kyle Lohse still doesn't have a home, and there could be a few more trades of starting pitchers. But there is enough information available to rank the 10 best rotations for 2013.
[h=3]1. Detroit Tigers[/h]
The rotation of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello took the Tigers to the World Series, and they could be even better in 2013. Verlander is generally regarded within the industry as the best pitcher on the planet, Fister is coming back from a season in which he was nagged by an oblique injury, and the Tigers will benefit from a full season of Sanchez, who was re-signed to an $80 million deal.
<offer>Detroit is listening to offers for Porcello and if the Tigers find the right deal, they would presumably replace him in the rotation with Drew Smyly. But they always have the option of holding their pitching depth; last season, they struggled constantly to find fixes after Fister got hurt. Rival evaluators believe that the Tigers' pitching will be helped by the defensive cleanup that Detroit has done in its outfield, adding Torii Hunter and removing Brennan Boesch and Delmon Young.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Scherzer by month[/h]
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<!-- end inline 1 -->Linchpin guy: Scherzer. After he dominated the Yankees in the playoffs, some of their hitters raved about Scherzer's pure stuff and development. In the second half of 2012, he was among the most dominant pitchers in the majors. Check out his month-by-month numbers in the table to the right.
Scherzer is known as somebody who tinkers and sometimes overthinks. If he holds on to what he found last year, he could be the difference between an excellent rotation and something even better.
[h=3]2. Washington Nationals[/h]
Stephen Strasburg is back and healthy, and if Washington follows the typical industry guidelines for building innings in young starters, he'll be able to throw something in the range of 190 innings. Strasburg will be at the front of a rotation that has Gio Gonzalez, who finished third in the NL Cy Young race last season, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler and Dan Haren.
Linchpin guy: Zimmermann. He will be three years removed from his Tommy John surgery, and is ready to become, for this staff, what James Shields was to the Rays' rotation -- the reliable front-end guy, the plow horse. Even in a season in which he seemed to tire in the final weeks, he had an excellent year, posting a 2.94 ERA. And the best is yet to come for the 26-year-old.
[h=3]3. Los Angeles Dodgers[/h]
Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly/Chris Capuano/Aaron Harang/Hyun-Jin Ryu. For Greinke and Beckett, this is the perfect situation, because they don't have the burden of being The Guy. Kershaw is the National League's best pitcher and he fully embraces all that comes with being the staff leader, from the media responsibilities to those moments when retaliation is needed. Greinke and Beckett can just worry about pitching, which is probably how they prefer it to be. The reason the Dodgers are ranked third -- and not higher -- is that it's not really clear what Don Mattingly is going to get out of Billingsley, Lilly or the starting pitcher who isn't dealt.
Linchpin guy: Beckett. Like other veteran starters who have moved from the AL to the NL, he should benefit from the shift, and Beckett is smart and savvy enough to be able to take advantage of those weakest spots at the bottom of the lineup. Beckett had a 2.93 ERA in his seven starts with the Dodgers, after being acquired from Boston, and now he gets a full-season reset button. He could be excellent. It's evident from Beckett's FanGraphs data that he relied a lot more on his cutter in his last few starts; it's a small sample size, but his strikeouts-per-9 ratio jumped from 6.64 with the Red Sox to 7.95 with the Dodgers.
[h=3]4. Philadelphia Phillies[/h]
Remember two winters ago, when the Phillies were thought to have one of the greatest rotations of all time? There's a been-there, done-that sense about Philadelphia, a group of players who might be in the twilight of their accomplishments together. But Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels still might be the best trio of starters in the majors, and each is fully capable of winning the Cy Young Award. The Phillies led the majors in starting pitcher innings and strikeouts last season despite a miserable year that seemed to fall apart early. John Lannan was signed to help fill out the rotation, along with Kyle Kendrick and Tyler Cloyd.
Linchpin guy: Halladay. It's a really big year for the right-hander, because he has a $20 million option that can vest if he throws 235 innings, something he's done in five different seasons. Shoulder trouble limited him to 156⅓ innings last year, and at 35, he's reached the age where the performance cliff can be treacherous: He's really good when he pitches, but it wouldn't be a shock to anyone if he's taken down by all the years of accumulated wear and tear. Halladay will enter the season with a career record of 199-100.
[h=3]5. Cincinnati Reds[/h]
The Reds finished fifth in the majors in rotation ERA last season, and their group of five was remarkably durable -- Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake started 161 of the team's 162 games. As if that wasn't enough, the Reds intend to shift the overpowering Aroldis Chapman into their rotation in 2013, to give them a needed left-handed presence. Cueto was a Cy Young candidate for most of the season, and Latos made an excellent transition from pitching his home games in massive Petco Park to the confined quarters in Cincinnati. Arroyo, who turns 36 in February, has had seven straight seasons of 199 or more innings. The Cincinnati bullpen should be pretty good, too.
Linchpin guy: Bailey. He has a reputation for being stubborn and hard-headed, but he seemed to figure out some stuff during the 2012 season, with his ERA dropping from 4.14 in the first half to 3.21 after the All-Star break. Bailey was a first-round pick in 2004 and because of that, it feels like he's been around forever -- but remember, he's 26. If he has, in fact, turned the corner, and Chapman repeats his delivery enough to stay in the rotation, the Reds might have the best rotation by the end of the year.
[h=3]6. Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
You start with Cy Young winner David Price, complemented by the underrated Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore and Jeff Niemann. The Rays finished No. 1 in starters' ERA last season, but they traded anchor James Shields, who threw more than 1,300 innings over the past six years.
Linchpin guy: Moore. He went into the 2012 season as the prohibitive favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year, after his dominating showing at the end of 2011. But Moore struggled for command consistency for the first half of last season, before putting together a very good second half; Moore had a 3.01 ERA after the All-Star break, with 79 strikeouts in 77⅔ innings. If the 23-year-old blossoms this season, this rotation could be great, rather than just pretty good.
[h=3]7. Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
The addition of R.A. Dickey gives them a Cy Young winner at the front of a group that could be dynamic, with its combination of left-handers (Mark Buehrle and Ricky Romero) and power right-handers (Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow). Only Justin Verlander threw more innings than Dickey (233&frac23
last season, and Morrow might be ready for a breakout season, after gaining command consistency and lowering his ERA to 2.96 in 124⅔ innings last year.
Linchpin guy: Johnson. When healthy, he's been among the most dominant starters in the majors. Last year, his fastball velocity was down, and he had a 3.81 ERA in 31 starts. It's a big year for Johnson, who turns 29 in January and is eligible for free agency next fall.
[h=3]8. Atlanta Braves[/h]
Kris Medlen had a sub-1.00 ERA in his last 12 starts, and he could emerge as the front-end guy the Braves need to complement Tim Hudson. The Braves are hopeful that Brandon Beachy will be back at full speed by August and September, meaning that he could be their biggest addition during the course of the season. The Braves will have Paul Maholm all season, along with Mike Minor, and they have depth, with prospects Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran waiting in the wings.
Linchpin guy: Minor. He figured out in late May how to not beat himself, how to minimize damage in his innings, how to be aggressive with his fastball, and he was much better down the stretch. Minor -- who actually led the Braves in starts, with 30 -- had a 2.16 ERA after the All-Star break. If he picks up that thread in 2013, the Atlanta rotation will be formidable.
[h=3]9. San Francisco Giants[/h]
San Francisco finished sixth in starters' ERA and the Giants' rotation helped them win the World Series for the second time in three seasons -- and yet the year ended with a lot of questions for the starters. Rival scouts thought Matt Cain showed signs of wear and tear by the end of the postseason, and wondered if he was pitching through fatigue. Madison Bumgarner completely lost his delivery in parts of the postseason, and Tim Lincecum struggled enough to lose his spot in the rotation in the playoffs. But you figure that between that trio and Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito, the Giants' rotation will be one of the best, again.
Linchpin guy: Lincecum. He thrived in the relief role in the postseason, and the Giants are hopeful that he can draw confidence out of that success and apply it to his work in the rotation in 2013. He'll be eligible for free agency after this season, so it's an important year for him to re-establish himself as a reliable starter.
[h=3]10. Oakland Athletics[/h]
The Athletics finished third in the AL in starters' ERA, and now they'll benefit from a full season of Brett Anderson at the front of a young rotation that includes Jarrod Parker (3.47 ERA in 29 starts), Tommy Milone (3.74), A.J. Griffin (3.06 ERA in 15 starts) and Dan Straily; Bartolo Colon was re-signed for just $3 million, and remember, he was pretty good before being suspended.
Linchpin guy: Anderson. In his first full season since having elbow reconstruction, it figures that the Athletics will monitor his innings -- although it's unlikely they'll discuss those limits publicly. Oakland is relying on a lot of young starters, which means that when Anderson pitches, the Athletics will need him to be really good, as he was at the end of 2012; in six starts, Anderson went 4-2, with a 2.57 ERA.
[h=3]The next best: New York Yankees[/h]
The Yankees have had a rough winter trying to explain their new-found austerity to a fan base accustomed to big, bold (and expensive) moves. But they have managed to hold their pitching together and should have a good and efficient rotation, with CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes. Michael Pineda is a complete wild card: The talented right-hander is coming back from shoulder surgery, which means that nobody knows what he'll contribute next season -- 100 innings of dominant stuff, or next to nothing, as he recovers. Rival evaluators like David Phelps in a rotation/bullpen swing role.
Linchpin guy: Hughes had a decent season in 2012, despite pitching in a ballpark for which he is an imperfect fit. On the road last year, Hughes went 11-4, with a 3.76 ERA, and 22 of the 35 homers he allowed were in Yankee Stadium, where he went 5-9, 4.76.
We'll have some polling data on this later in the week, as we present rank the teams based on other categories.
[h=3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h]
1. Paul Hoynes believes Chris Perez will be the Cleveland Indians' closer in 2013.
2. Missed this the other day: A.J. Pierzynski was formally named as the top catcher for the Texas Rangers. What's interesting about that is that Geovany Soto was under the impression that he would be the No. 1 catcher. Really, there will be plenty of opportunity for both, because Pierzynski could get a good share of at-bats as the DH.
3. The Miami Marlins are talking about listening to offers for Giancarlo Stanton.
4. John Tomase writes about how it all went wrong for the Boston Red Sox.
[h=3]Other stuff[/h]
• David Murphy feels that some baseball writers have a little drama queen in them, in regard to the Hall of Fame voting.
• Ryan Braun's overturned suspension was ranked as the top story of the year by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel staff.
• Chip Bailey lists the Astros' highlights of 2012.
• I'm a fan of the Vikings, but I cannot imagine a more inspired effort by any athlete than what Adrian Peterson showed in 2012. Amazing.
• For Vanderbilt, bowl expectations rise. The Commodores play in the Music City Bowl Monday.
And today will be better than yesterday.
</offer>
Buster Olney
ESPN INSIDER
Kyle Lohse still doesn't have a home, and there could be a few more trades of starting pitchers. But there is enough information available to rank the 10 best rotations for 2013.
[h=3]1. Detroit Tigers[/h]
The rotation of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez and Rick Porcello took the Tigers to the World Series, and they could be even better in 2013. Verlander is generally regarded within the industry as the best pitcher on the planet, Fister is coming back from a season in which he was nagged by an oblique injury, and the Tigers will benefit from a full season of Sanchez, who was re-signed to an $80 million deal.
<offer>Detroit is listening to offers for Porcello and if the Tigers find the right deal, they would presumably replace him in the rotation with Drew Smyly. But they always have the option of holding their pitching depth; last season, they struggled constantly to find fixes after Fister got hurt. Rival evaluators believe that the Tigers' pitching will be helped by the defensive cleanup that Detroit has done in its outfield, adding Torii Hunter and removing Brennan Boesch and Delmon Young.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Scherzer by month[/h]
| MONTH | ERA | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|
| April | 7.77 | 24.1 | 27 |
| May | 4.04 | 35.2 | 51 |
| June | 3.86 | 30.1 | 36 |
| July | 3.62 | 32.1 | 37 |
| August | 2.25 | 32 | 44 |
| September | 2.17 | 29 | 33 |
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<!-- end inline 1 -->Linchpin guy: Scherzer. After he dominated the Yankees in the playoffs, some of their hitters raved about Scherzer's pure stuff and development. In the second half of 2012, he was among the most dominant pitchers in the majors. Check out his month-by-month numbers in the table to the right.
Scherzer is known as somebody who tinkers and sometimes overthinks. If he holds on to what he found last year, he could be the difference between an excellent rotation and something even better.
[h=3]2. Washington Nationals[/h]
Stephen Strasburg is back and healthy, and if Washington follows the typical industry guidelines for building innings in young starters, he'll be able to throw something in the range of 190 innings. Strasburg will be at the front of a rotation that has Gio Gonzalez, who finished third in the NL Cy Young race last season, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler and Dan Haren.
Linchpin guy: Zimmermann. He will be three years removed from his Tommy John surgery, and is ready to become, for this staff, what James Shields was to the Rays' rotation -- the reliable front-end guy, the plow horse. Even in a season in which he seemed to tire in the final weeks, he had an excellent year, posting a 2.94 ERA. And the best is yet to come for the 26-year-old.
[h=3]3. Los Angeles Dodgers[/h]
Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly/Chris Capuano/Aaron Harang/Hyun-Jin Ryu. For Greinke and Beckett, this is the perfect situation, because they don't have the burden of being The Guy. Kershaw is the National League's best pitcher and he fully embraces all that comes with being the staff leader, from the media responsibilities to those moments when retaliation is needed. Greinke and Beckett can just worry about pitching, which is probably how they prefer it to be. The reason the Dodgers are ranked third -- and not higher -- is that it's not really clear what Don Mattingly is going to get out of Billingsley, Lilly or the starting pitcher who isn't dealt.
Linchpin guy: Beckett. Like other veteran starters who have moved from the AL to the NL, he should benefit from the shift, and Beckett is smart and savvy enough to be able to take advantage of those weakest spots at the bottom of the lineup. Beckett had a 2.93 ERA in his seven starts with the Dodgers, after being acquired from Boston, and now he gets a full-season reset button. He could be excellent. It's evident from Beckett's FanGraphs data that he relied a lot more on his cutter in his last few starts; it's a small sample size, but his strikeouts-per-9 ratio jumped from 6.64 with the Red Sox to 7.95 with the Dodgers.
[h=3]4. Philadelphia Phillies[/h]
Remember two winters ago, when the Phillies were thought to have one of the greatest rotations of all time? There's a been-there, done-that sense about Philadelphia, a group of players who might be in the twilight of their accomplishments together. But Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels still might be the best trio of starters in the majors, and each is fully capable of winning the Cy Young Award. The Phillies led the majors in starting pitcher innings and strikeouts last season despite a miserable year that seemed to fall apart early. John Lannan was signed to help fill out the rotation, along with Kyle Kendrick and Tyler Cloyd.
Linchpin guy: Halladay. It's a really big year for the right-hander, because he has a $20 million option that can vest if he throws 235 innings, something he's done in five different seasons. Shoulder trouble limited him to 156⅓ innings last year, and at 35, he's reached the age where the performance cliff can be treacherous: He's really good when he pitches, but it wouldn't be a shock to anyone if he's taken down by all the years of accumulated wear and tear. Halladay will enter the season with a career record of 199-100.
[h=3]5. Cincinnati Reds[/h]
The Reds finished fifth in the majors in rotation ERA last season, and their group of five was remarkably durable -- Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake started 161 of the team's 162 games. As if that wasn't enough, the Reds intend to shift the overpowering Aroldis Chapman into their rotation in 2013, to give them a needed left-handed presence. Cueto was a Cy Young candidate for most of the season, and Latos made an excellent transition from pitching his home games in massive Petco Park to the confined quarters in Cincinnati. Arroyo, who turns 36 in February, has had seven straight seasons of 199 or more innings. The Cincinnati bullpen should be pretty good, too.
Linchpin guy: Bailey. He has a reputation for being stubborn and hard-headed, but he seemed to figure out some stuff during the 2012 season, with his ERA dropping from 4.14 in the first half to 3.21 after the All-Star break. Bailey was a first-round pick in 2004 and because of that, it feels like he's been around forever -- but remember, he's 26. If he has, in fact, turned the corner, and Chapman repeats his delivery enough to stay in the rotation, the Reds might have the best rotation by the end of the year.
[h=3]6. Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
You start with Cy Young winner David Price, complemented by the underrated Alex Cobb, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore and Jeff Niemann. The Rays finished No. 1 in starters' ERA last season, but they traded anchor James Shields, who threw more than 1,300 innings over the past six years.
Linchpin guy: Moore. He went into the 2012 season as the prohibitive favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year, after his dominating showing at the end of 2011. But Moore struggled for command consistency for the first half of last season, before putting together a very good second half; Moore had a 3.01 ERA after the All-Star break, with 79 strikeouts in 77⅔ innings. If the 23-year-old blossoms this season, this rotation could be great, rather than just pretty good.
[h=3]7. Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
The addition of R.A. Dickey gives them a Cy Young winner at the front of a group that could be dynamic, with its combination of left-handers (Mark Buehrle and Ricky Romero) and power right-handers (Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow). Only Justin Verlander threw more innings than Dickey (233&frac23
last season, and Morrow might be ready for a breakout season, after gaining command consistency and lowering his ERA to 2.96 in 124⅔ innings last year.Linchpin guy: Johnson. When healthy, he's been among the most dominant starters in the majors. Last year, his fastball velocity was down, and he had a 3.81 ERA in 31 starts. It's a big year for Johnson, who turns 29 in January and is eligible for free agency next fall.
[h=3]8. Atlanta Braves[/h]
Kris Medlen had a sub-1.00 ERA in his last 12 starts, and he could emerge as the front-end guy the Braves need to complement Tim Hudson. The Braves are hopeful that Brandon Beachy will be back at full speed by August and September, meaning that he could be their biggest addition during the course of the season. The Braves will have Paul Maholm all season, along with Mike Minor, and they have depth, with prospects Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran waiting in the wings.
Linchpin guy: Minor. He figured out in late May how to not beat himself, how to minimize damage in his innings, how to be aggressive with his fastball, and he was much better down the stretch. Minor -- who actually led the Braves in starts, with 30 -- had a 2.16 ERA after the All-Star break. If he picks up that thread in 2013, the Atlanta rotation will be formidable.
[h=3]9. San Francisco Giants[/h]
San Francisco finished sixth in starters' ERA and the Giants' rotation helped them win the World Series for the second time in three seasons -- and yet the year ended with a lot of questions for the starters. Rival scouts thought Matt Cain showed signs of wear and tear by the end of the postseason, and wondered if he was pitching through fatigue. Madison Bumgarner completely lost his delivery in parts of the postseason, and Tim Lincecum struggled enough to lose his spot in the rotation in the playoffs. But you figure that between that trio and Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito, the Giants' rotation will be one of the best, again.
Linchpin guy: Lincecum. He thrived in the relief role in the postseason, and the Giants are hopeful that he can draw confidence out of that success and apply it to his work in the rotation in 2013. He'll be eligible for free agency after this season, so it's an important year for him to re-establish himself as a reliable starter.
[h=3]10. Oakland Athletics[/h]
The Athletics finished third in the AL in starters' ERA, and now they'll benefit from a full season of Brett Anderson at the front of a young rotation that includes Jarrod Parker (3.47 ERA in 29 starts), Tommy Milone (3.74), A.J. Griffin (3.06 ERA in 15 starts) and Dan Straily; Bartolo Colon was re-signed for just $3 million, and remember, he was pretty good before being suspended.
Linchpin guy: Anderson. In his first full season since having elbow reconstruction, it figures that the Athletics will monitor his innings -- although it's unlikely they'll discuss those limits publicly. Oakland is relying on a lot of young starters, which means that when Anderson pitches, the Athletics will need him to be really good, as he was at the end of 2012; in six starts, Anderson went 4-2, with a 2.57 ERA.
[h=3]The next best: New York Yankees[/h]
The Yankees have had a rough winter trying to explain their new-found austerity to a fan base accustomed to big, bold (and expensive) moves. But they have managed to hold their pitching together and should have a good and efficient rotation, with CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes. Michael Pineda is a complete wild card: The talented right-hander is coming back from shoulder surgery, which means that nobody knows what he'll contribute next season -- 100 innings of dominant stuff, or next to nothing, as he recovers. Rival evaluators like David Phelps in a rotation/bullpen swing role.
Linchpin guy: Hughes had a decent season in 2012, despite pitching in a ballpark for which he is an imperfect fit. On the road last year, Hughes went 11-4, with a 3.76 ERA, and 22 of the 35 homers he allowed were in Yankee Stadium, where he went 5-9, 4.76.
We'll have some polling data on this later in the week, as we present rank the teams based on other categories.
[h=3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h]
1. Paul Hoynes believes Chris Perez will be the Cleveland Indians' closer in 2013.
2. Missed this the other day: A.J. Pierzynski was formally named as the top catcher for the Texas Rangers. What's interesting about that is that Geovany Soto was under the impression that he would be the No. 1 catcher. Really, there will be plenty of opportunity for both, because Pierzynski could get a good share of at-bats as the DH.
3. The Miami Marlins are talking about listening to offers for Giancarlo Stanton.
4. John Tomase writes about how it all went wrong for the Boston Red Sox.
[h=3]Other stuff[/h]
• David Murphy feels that some baseball writers have a little drama queen in them, in regard to the Hall of Fame voting.
• Ryan Braun's overturned suspension was ranked as the top story of the year by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel staff.
• Chip Bailey lists the Astros' highlights of 2012.
• I'm a fan of the Vikings, but I cannot imagine a more inspired effort by any athlete than what Adrian Peterson showed in 2012. Amazing.
• For Vanderbilt, bowl expectations rise. The Commodores play in the Music City Bowl Monday.
And today will be better than yesterday.
</offer>
