[h=1]Broncos end No. 1 in Bettors' Poll[/h][h=3]Final season-ending power ratings for all 32 NFL teams from handicappers[/h]
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Not surprisingly, the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots won in routs in Week 17. And with the Houston Texans' loss, the Broncos and Patriots ascended to the top two seeds in the AFC and co-Super Bowl favorites at 5-2 odds here in the LVH future book in Vegas.
And that's right where they've been the past few weeks in the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll -- the Broncos at No. 1 and the Patriots at No. 2 in the combined power ratings of Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley.
The blowout wins by the Broncos and Patriots gave them a half-point bump each in their power ratings to expand their lead on the rest of the field. Most of the other playoff contenders saw their power ratings stay the same, though the Texans and Atlanta Falcons both lost half a point from their losses while the Minnesota Vikings and Indianapolis Colts both gained half a point. However, both are still the lowest-rated teams in their respective conference.
Of the non-playoff teams, the Carolina Panthers were the only one to move more than half a point as they had a one-point increase off their upset of the New Orleans Saints and their strong finish.
Here is the full Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll for the end of the regular season. Note: You can use these power ratings throughout the playoffs as well (feel free to comment below about any teams you think should have their power ratings tweaked along the way). Another note: We'll return after the Super Bowl for an actual end-of-season power rating for each team and a look at future-book odds for the 2013 season:
Here is the season-ending Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll:
<offer><!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll (end of regular season)[/h]
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<!-- end inline 2 -->[h=3]Wild-card weekend values[/h]Each week, we go through the schedule and compare the power ratings of the two teams playing in every game to see if there is any edge to be found with our collective power ratings against the available lines. While we have always stressed that more things going into handicapping games than just power ratings, we've been disappointed by the overall losing record on the games that have seen a difference between our combined ratings and the available lines. These recommended plays did, however, go 3-0 last week to get back to .500 at 23-23 ATS as the Vikings, St. Louis Rams and Washington Redskins all covered.
(Disclaimer: These are not my personal plays, just suggestions based on the combined ratings from the group as a whole. My "Tuley's Take" plays on ESPN Insider, which usually came out on Friday during the regular season, will be posted on Thursdays during the playoffs.)
Minnesota Vikings plus-8 at Green Bay Packers:
Same pick as last week, except in Green Bay and Vikings getting more points. The raw numbers have the Packers 3.5 points ahead of the Vikings in our ratings (after they were four points ahead last week), but even if you give the Packers three full points for home-field advantage at Lambeau Field (or even 3.5 or four), there's still value with the Vikings getting more than a touchdown. The raw numbers have the Packers 4.5 points ahead of the Vikings in our ratings, but Minnesota's home field takes it comfortably under a field goal in this game with playoff implications for both teams.
The pick: Vikings
Washington Redskins plus-3 versus Seattle Seahawks:
This is the only wild-card game with a road favorite. Our composite power ratings also have the Seahawks two points better than the Redskins on a neutral field but when factoring in home field for Washington it should be right around pick-em. This line has been steaming on the Seahawks up to 2.5 and if it gets to three it looks like the Redskins should be a play according to the numbers.
The pick: Redskins
Panel:
Dave Tuley of ESPN Insider and ViewFromVegas.com
Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com
Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com
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By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Not surprisingly, the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots won in routs in Week 17. And with the Houston Texans' loss, the Broncos and Patriots ascended to the top two seeds in the AFC and co-Super Bowl favorites at 5-2 odds here in the LVH future book in Vegas.
And that's right where they've been the past few weeks in the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll -- the Broncos at No. 1 and the Patriots at No. 2 in the combined power ratings of Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley.
The blowout wins by the Broncos and Patriots gave them a half-point bump each in their power ratings to expand their lead on the rest of the field. Most of the other playoff contenders saw their power ratings stay the same, though the Texans and Atlanta Falcons both lost half a point from their losses while the Minnesota Vikings and Indianapolis Colts both gained half a point. However, both are still the lowest-rated teams in their respective conference.
Of the non-playoff teams, the Carolina Panthers were the only one to move more than half a point as they had a one-point increase off their upset of the New Orleans Saints and their strong finish.
Here is the full Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll for the end of the regular season. Note: You can use these power ratings throughout the playoffs as well (feel free to comment below about any teams you think should have their power ratings tweaked along the way). Another note: We'll return after the Super Bowl for an actual end-of-season power rating for each team and a look at future-book odds for the 2013 season:
Here is the season-ending Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll:
<offer><!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll (end of regular season)[/h]
| Rank | Team | ATS Record | Power Rating | Last Week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denver Broncos | 10-5-1 | 27 | 26.5 | +0.5 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 9-7 | 26.5 | 26 | +0.5 |
| 3t | San Francisco 49ers | 9-7 | 24.5 | 24.5 | ---- |
| 3t | Seattle Seahawks | 11-5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | ---- |
| 3t | Green Bay Packers | 9-7 | 24.5 | 24.5 | ---- |
| 6t | Atlanta Falcons | 9-6-1 | 23 | 23.5 | -0.5 |
| 6t | Houston Texans | 9-7 | 23 | 23.5 | -0.5 |
| 8t | Washington Redskins | 12-4 | 22.5 | 22.5 | ---- |
| 8t | Baltimore Ravens | 6-9-1 | 22.5 | 22.5 | ---- |
| 10t | Cincinnati Bengals | 9-6-1 | 22 | 22 | ---- |
| 10t | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-9-1 | 22 | 22 | ---- |
| 10t | New York Giants | 7-8-1 | 22 | 22 | ---- |
| 13t | Minnesota Vikings | 8-7-1 | 21 | 20.5 | +0.5 |
| 13t | Chicago Bears | 7-9 | 21 | 21 | ---- |
| 15t | Dallas Cowboys | 6-10 | 20.5 | 20.5 | ---- |
| 15t | New Orleans Saints | 8-8 | 20.5 | 21 | -0.5 |
| 15t | Carolina Panthers | 8-8 | 20.5 | 19.5 | +1 |
| 18 | Indianapolis Colts | 10-5-1 | 19.5 | 19 | +0.5 |
| 19 | St. Louis Rams | 11-5 | 19 | 19 | ---- |
| 20t | Miami Dolphins | 8-8 | 18.5 | 19 | -0.5 |
| 20t | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9-5-2 | 18.5 | 18 | +0.5 |
| 22t | Cleveland Browns | 8-7-1 | 18 | 18 | ---- |
| 22t | San Diego Chargers | 7-9 | 18 | 18 | ---- |
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<!-- end inline 2 -->[h=3]Wild-card weekend values[/h]Each week, we go through the schedule and compare the power ratings of the two teams playing in every game to see if there is any edge to be found with our collective power ratings against the available lines. While we have always stressed that more things going into handicapping games than just power ratings, we've been disappointed by the overall losing record on the games that have seen a difference between our combined ratings and the available lines. These recommended plays did, however, go 3-0 last week to get back to .500 at 23-23 ATS as the Vikings, St. Louis Rams and Washington Redskins all covered.
(Disclaimer: These are not my personal plays, just suggestions based on the combined ratings from the group as a whole. My "Tuley's Take" plays on ESPN Insider, which usually came out on Friday during the regular season, will be posted on Thursdays during the playoffs.)
Minnesota Vikings plus-8 at Green Bay Packers:
Same pick as last week, except in Green Bay and Vikings getting more points. The raw numbers have the Packers 3.5 points ahead of the Vikings in our ratings (after they were four points ahead last week), but even if you give the Packers three full points for home-field advantage at Lambeau Field (or even 3.5 or four), there's still value with the Vikings getting more than a touchdown. The raw numbers have the Packers 4.5 points ahead of the Vikings in our ratings, but Minnesota's home field takes it comfortably under a field goal in this game with playoff implications for both teams.
The pick: Vikings
Washington Redskins plus-3 versus Seattle Seahawks:
This is the only wild-card game with a road favorite. Our composite power ratings also have the Seahawks two points better than the Redskins on a neutral field but when factoring in home field for Washington it should be right around pick-em. This line has been steaming on the Seahawks up to 2.5 and if it gets to three it looks like the Redskins should be a play according to the numbers.
The pick: Redskins
Panel:
Dave Tuley of ESPN Insider and ViewFromVegas.com
Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com
Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com
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