The 2012 season in a nutshell: Calvin Johnson broke Jerry Rice's record. Adrian Peterson threatened Eric Dickerson's. The league was overtaken by a rookie class the likes of which we may never see again. And the best four quarterbacks in football are now the same guys who have been the best four quarterbacks over the last half-decade or so, especially when viewed through Football Outsiders' exclusive statistical lens.
Using our core advanced metrics -- DYAR and DVOA (explained in depth, here) -- we've gone through the full-season totals at each position and identified the best and worst quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends from this season. The result is a two-day look at the studs and duds of the 2012 season. We started with the quarterbacks on Monday, and today we bring you the RBs, WRs and TEs. The examination also includes which players have had their performance differ most drastically from their conventional statistics, as well as those players who have had the biggest improvement or decline in their performance from a year ago.
Our annual disclaimer: Numbers are never perfect. We certainly believe that our metrics do a better job of analyzing a player's performance than anything else you'll see, but statistics can't account for some things. We'll point out where the data need some additional context as warranted. Also, remember that DYAR is a cumulative stat, so players who miss time (like Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, who each played very well for San Francisco) will find it harder to make it onto these leaderboards.
[h=3]Top 5 Running Backs[/h]1) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: 454 DYAR (459 rushing DYAR, -5 receiving)
2) Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks: 410 DYAR (361 rushing DYAR, 48 receiving)
3) C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills: 392 DYAR (301 rushing DYAR, 92 receiving)
4) Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers: 317 DYAR (268 rushing DYAR, 49 receiving)
5) Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants: 265 DYAR (230 rushing DYAR, 35 receiving)
Analysis: Not many surprises here. Although Peterson's season wasn't quite as impressive as his yardage numbers would indicate (as discussed last week, he is stuffed for a loss far more often than most elite backs), he still had enough rushing value to top the list of all players at his position despite finishing below replacement level as a receiver.
Lynch set career highs with 1,590 yards rushing and 5.0 yards per carry. Spiller averaged 6.0 yards on 207 carries. He and Peterson (6.0 yard average on 348 carries) are the fifth and sixth players in NFL history to top 6.0 yards per rush on at least 200 carries, joining Jim Brown, O.J. Simpson, Barry Sanders and Jamaal Charles.
Bradshaw is an odd case. He had only six rushing touchdowns on the season, but he led the league in red zone rushing value, constantly putting his teammates in position to score while rarely crossing the goal-line himself.
Two names who just missed the list also warrant mention: Joique Bell of the Detroit Lions finished a few decimal points behind Bradshaw. With 52 catches for 485 yards, he has become one of the league's premier receivers at his position. In seventh place was Washington's rookie sensation Alfred Morris. He finished fifth in rushing value alone, but was below replacement level as a receiver, and he failed to make the top 10 rookie seasons since 1991.
[h=3]Bottom 5 Running Backs[/h]1) Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: -234 DYAR (-155 rushing DYAR, -79 receiving)
2) Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons: -112 DYAR (-78 rushing DYAR, -34 receiving)
3) Rashad Jennings, Jacksonville Jaguars: -108 DYAR (-97 rushing DYAR, -11 receiving)
4) LaRod Stephens-Howling, Arizona Cardinals: -103 DYAR (-63 rushing DYAR, -40 receiving)
5) Ryan Williams, Arizona Cardinals: -85 DYAR (-85 rushing DYAR, 0 receiving)
Analysis: Honestly, it's hard to tell which of these backs was the worst. Jennings and Williams averaged 2.8 yards per carry. Stephens-Howling didn't run very often, but he was so unhelpful as a receiver (57 percent catch rate, next to last among backs with at least 25 targets) that he still makes this list. And when he did run, Stephens-Howling was stuffed on more than one-third of his attempts. McFadden's Success Rate was only 36 percent. Honestly, Turner was probably the best of the bunch, but because he was still below replacement level and ran 222 times, he nearly made it to the very bottom.
Better than his standard statistics made him look: Danny Woodhead, New England Patriots
Woodhead made the top 10 among running backs in total DYAR, despite ranking 33rd at his position in yards from scrimmage. His 4.0-yard average is nothing to write home about, but he was the model of consistency. His Success Rate (55 percent) and Stuff Rate (13 percent) were both much better than league averages (47 percent and 20 percent, respectively).
Worse than his standard statistics made him look: McFadden
The Raiders runner gained nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage, but it took him so many bad plays to get there that it was hardly worth it. He was stuffed 22 percent of the time and averaged only 3.3 yards per carry. And he gained 259 yards receiving, but only 4.0 yards per target. The average for running backs was 5.8.
Most improved: Gore
One year ago, Gore failed to make the top 40 in DYAR, DVOA or Success Rate. This year, he was top five in DYAR, top 10 in DVOA and top 20 in Success Rate.
Biggest decline: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles: McCoy was a top-five running back in total DYAR last year, but he had only 87 total DYAR in 2012. That's partly because he missed four games, but he also had four fumbles and was stuffed 28 percent of the time.
All 2012 running back numbers can be found here.
Using our core advanced metrics -- DYAR and DVOA (explained in depth, here) -- we've gone through the full-season totals at each position and identified the best and worst quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends from this season. The result is a two-day look at the studs and duds of the 2012 season. We started with the quarterbacks on Monday, and today we bring you the RBs, WRs and TEs. The examination also includes which players have had their performance differ most drastically from their conventional statistics, as well as those players who have had the biggest improvement or decline in their performance from a year ago.
Our annual disclaimer: Numbers are never perfect. We certainly believe that our metrics do a better job of analyzing a player's performance than anything else you'll see, but statistics can't account for some things. We'll point out where the data need some additional context as warranted. Also, remember that DYAR is a cumulative stat, so players who miss time (like Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, who each played very well for San Francisco) will find it harder to make it onto these leaderboards.
[h=3]Top 5 Running Backs[/h]1) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: 454 DYAR (459 rushing DYAR, -5 receiving)
2) Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks: 410 DYAR (361 rushing DYAR, 48 receiving)
3) C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills: 392 DYAR (301 rushing DYAR, 92 receiving)
4) Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers: 317 DYAR (268 rushing DYAR, 49 receiving)
5) Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants: 265 DYAR (230 rushing DYAR, 35 receiving)
Analysis: Not many surprises here. Although Peterson's season wasn't quite as impressive as his yardage numbers would indicate (as discussed last week, he is stuffed for a loss far more often than most elite backs), he still had enough rushing value to top the list of all players at his position despite finishing below replacement level as a receiver.
Lynch set career highs with 1,590 yards rushing and 5.0 yards per carry. Spiller averaged 6.0 yards on 207 carries. He and Peterson (6.0 yard average on 348 carries) are the fifth and sixth players in NFL history to top 6.0 yards per rush on at least 200 carries, joining Jim Brown, O.J. Simpson, Barry Sanders and Jamaal Charles.
Bradshaw is an odd case. He had only six rushing touchdowns on the season, but he led the league in red zone rushing value, constantly putting his teammates in position to score while rarely crossing the goal-line himself.
Two names who just missed the list also warrant mention: Joique Bell of the Detroit Lions finished a few decimal points behind Bradshaw. With 52 catches for 485 yards, he has become one of the league's premier receivers at his position. In seventh place was Washington's rookie sensation Alfred Morris. He finished fifth in rushing value alone, but was below replacement level as a receiver, and he failed to make the top 10 rookie seasons since 1991.
[h=3]Bottom 5 Running Backs[/h]1) Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: -234 DYAR (-155 rushing DYAR, -79 receiving)
2) Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons: -112 DYAR (-78 rushing DYAR, -34 receiving)
3) Rashad Jennings, Jacksonville Jaguars: -108 DYAR (-97 rushing DYAR, -11 receiving)
4) LaRod Stephens-Howling, Arizona Cardinals: -103 DYAR (-63 rushing DYAR, -40 receiving)
5) Ryan Williams, Arizona Cardinals: -85 DYAR (-85 rushing DYAR, 0 receiving)
Analysis: Honestly, it's hard to tell which of these backs was the worst. Jennings and Williams averaged 2.8 yards per carry. Stephens-Howling didn't run very often, but he was so unhelpful as a receiver (57 percent catch rate, next to last among backs with at least 25 targets) that he still makes this list. And when he did run, Stephens-Howling was stuffed on more than one-third of his attempts. McFadden's Success Rate was only 36 percent. Honestly, Turner was probably the best of the bunch, but because he was still below replacement level and ran 222 times, he nearly made it to the very bottom.
Better than his standard statistics made him look: Danny Woodhead, New England Patriots
Woodhead made the top 10 among running backs in total DYAR, despite ranking 33rd at his position in yards from scrimmage. His 4.0-yard average is nothing to write home about, but he was the model of consistency. His Success Rate (55 percent) and Stuff Rate (13 percent) were both much better than league averages (47 percent and 20 percent, respectively).
Worse than his standard statistics made him look: McFadden
The Raiders runner gained nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage, but it took him so many bad plays to get there that it was hardly worth it. He was stuffed 22 percent of the time and averaged only 3.3 yards per carry. And he gained 259 yards receiving, but only 4.0 yards per target. The average for running backs was 5.8.
Most improved: Gore
One year ago, Gore failed to make the top 40 in DYAR, DVOA or Success Rate. This year, he was top five in DYAR, top 10 in DVOA and top 20 in Success Rate.
Biggest decline: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles: McCoy was a top-five running back in total DYAR last year, but he had only 87 total DYAR in 2012. That's partly because he missed four games, but he also had four fumbles and was stuffed 28 percent of the time.
All 2012 running back numbers can be found here.
