Top 10 infields in the majors
Buster Olney
ESPN INSIDER
[h=3]1. Texas Rangers[/h]
The Rangers' plan is to give Mitch Moreland a chance to establish himself as the first baseman in spring training, but they will also be devoted to the concept of making sure their best players will be in the lineup; if it becomes clear that Jurickson Profar -- who turns 20 next month -- is one of those guys, he'll play. Profar was shut down in winter ball because of an elbow problem, but the Rangers say he's fine now and is ready to go. The left side of the Texas infield is dynamic defensively, with MVP candidate Adrian Beltre at third and the improved Elvis Andrus at shortstop. Andrus is only 24 years old and still developing as an offensive player, and he showed in the first half that he has room to grow.
The X factor: Ian Kinsler. There was a general regression throughout almost every part of the Rangers' lineup as last season progressed, from Josh Hamilton to Michael Young, but Kinsler's decline may have been the most perplexing. At age 30, his OPS slid by 83 points from 2011 to 2012; his WAR went from 7.1 to 2.0 in the same time frame. The damage he did against fastballs dropped considerably last year. As Profar emerges, Kinsler could be asked to change positions and move to first base, as he has acknowledged, but no matter where he plays, the Rangers will need better production out of him than they got last season; when at his best, Kinsler can be an elite hitter, among infielders.
<offer>
[h=3]2. Detroit Tigers[/h]Let's get this out of the way: The Tigers' infield defense was the worst in the majors last season because of plays not made, and for a sinker-ball pitcher like Rick Porcello, the lack of range is a problem. But in the end, Detroit reached the World Series largely because of the offensive excellence of Miguel Cabrera, who had the first Triple Crown season in almost half a century, and Prince Fielder, who made a seamless transition in his first season in Detroit. Those two combined for 74 homers and 247 RBIs.
"They're the best 1-2 punch in the big leagues," an AL general manager said recently. A very underrated part of what Cabrera and Fielder provide is their devotion to playing daily: They answer the bell, every day. Over the last seven seasons, Cabrera and Fielder have missed a total of 40 games. Omar Infante seemingly put a lot of pressure on himself after joining the Tigers in a midseason trade, before settling in and playing better down in the last weeks; he should be better this year.
The X factor: Their shortstop situation. The Tigers exercised the 2013 option for Jhonny Peralta, who is steady but limited, especially on defense. But they demonstrated during the winter that they're open to a possible upgrade, and it'll be interesting to see if Peralta holds this position throughout the season, or if Detroit aggressively looks for an alternative during the year.
[h=3]3. Cincinnati Reds[/h]
If Texas has the best left side in baseball, the Reds probably have the best right side, with Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips, who both excel offensively and defensively. Votto will presumably go into this season fully recovered from the multiple rounds of knee surgery he had last year, and with Shin-Soo Choo joining the Reds, Phillips figures to slide into the No. 2 spot in the Cincinnati lineup. Dusty Baker had to work to get Todd Frazier into the lineup at times last season, but with Scott Rolen closer to retirement, Frazier becomes the every-day guy at third, after posting an .829 OPS in 128 games last year. It's worth noting that while the Reds' hitters generally benefit from hitting in a cozy home park, Frazier fared better on the road than at home in 2012, by a good margin -- his OPS away from Cincinnati was 85 points higher, at .871. Shortstop Zack Cozart, 27, has some pop.
The X factor: For the first time in Votto's time with the Reds, the sum of their parts could really help him to a monster season. In recent years, Cincinnati has sometimes lacked a leadoff hitter who consistently gets on base, or good left-handed/right-handed balance, or depth through the 4-5-6 spots in their lineup. But with the addition of Choo at the top of their lineup, the Reds might have the best group they've ever had around Votto, who finished 2012 with a career-high 1.041 OPS. It could be a really big summer for him.
[h=3]4. Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
Sure, nobody knows exactly what they'll get out of first baseman James Loney, who is probably getting his last full-time shot to show that he can be a consistent run producer. And Tampa Bay's Yunel Escobar experiment will be fascinating; just as the Blue Jays did, they're betting that his talent (and the incredible team-friendly contract) will outweigh all his personality quirks and perceived lack of focus. But no matter what they get out of Loney and Escobar, the Rays should have two bedrocks in their infield, health permitting: Third baseman Evan Longoria and second baseman Ben Zobrist. Over Longoria's last 207 games, he has 48 homers and 154 RBIs, while playing in a home ballpark that's not exactly hitter-friendly, and Zobrist is a WAR superstar; he finished 16th in the majors in 2012 (FanGraphs' version) and 11th in 2011.
The X factor: Escobar. One of the folks in the Toronto organization summed up the shortstop in this way: "Every day, he makes at least one major mistake on defense or running the bases." That's a tendency that runs counter to the Rays' working philosophy, of course; Tampa Bay needs to be efficient. But Escobar is also capable of game-changing at-bats and superlative defense. The question is whether he'll drive the Rays crazy while they wait for those moments -- which is what happened in Atlanta and in Toronto. There's a reason someone who is perceived to be so talented has bounced to four teams (including the Marlins) in four seasons.
[h=3]5. New York Yankees[/h]
Robinson Cano is the game's best second baseman, and if the contract-year theory applies in his case -- he's eligible for free agency in the fall -- he could contend for the MVP award, again. Around him, there are stars capable of great things, even as older players: Derek Jeter led the majors in hits last season, at age 38. Mark Teixeira had 52 extra-base hits in 123 games in what was perceived to be a down year for him in 2012. Only two seasons ago, Kevin Youkilis posted a .411 on-base percentage for the Red Sox. And sometime in midseason, the Yankees believe, Alex Rodriguez will be back from his surgery.
The X factor: The ravages of age; the Yankees are hanging on the physical cliff. Jeter is coming back from a broken leg and, as he has noted himself with some humor, he has reached the age when everybody wonders, year to year, if he can still play. Teixeira turns 33 in April and his OPS has dropped each of the last four seasons:
2008: .962
2009: .948
2010: .846
2011: .835
2012: .807
There was a difference of about 400 OPS points in Youkilis' home/road splits last season, which was a red flag for some teams. Given that Rodriguez is 37 and has now had major surgery on both hips, the Yankees really have no idea whether he can be an effective player anymore.
[h=3]6. Atlanta Braves[/h]It's still not entirely clear how the Braves will replace Chipper Jones at third base; Martin Prado could be the full-time third baseman, or Atlanta could work the powerful Juan Francisco into the mix against some right-handed pitchers and shift Prado to left field on some days. No matter how the Braves decide to go, however, their infield should be one of the best, now that Andrelton Simmons is established as one of the sport's best young shortstops and Freddie Freeman is emerging as a run-producer. Freeman was hampered for weeks by eye trouble -- which has since been fixed -- but still closed the year with 58 extra-base hits after having a strong second half.
The X factor: The Braves need more peaks than valleys from Dan Uggla, whose slugging percentage has dropped from .503 in 2010 to .453 in 2011 to .384 last year.
[h=3]7. Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
It's a group that seems to have excellent potential: Edwin Encarnacion at first base, coming off a season in which he clubbed 42 homers and drove in 110 runs; shortstop Jose Reyes, winner of the NL batting title two years ago; Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis at second base; and the crazily talented Brett Lawrie at third base, where he has quickly adapted defensively. But as with all teams, there are questions: Is Encarnacion just a late bloomer, like Jose Bautista, or a one-year wonder? Can Reyes, who has a long history of leg problems, stay healthy while playing on Toronto's artificial surface? How much will Bonifacio -- who has been successful in 82 of 96 stolen-base attempts over the last three seasons -- contribute as a regular player?
The X factor: When you listen to rival evaluators talk about Lawrie, they sound like old cowboys talking about a mustang they saw running across the range. Lawrie impresses the heck out of them with his physical tools and his passion, yet they have doubts about whether he can ever be reined in and refined in a way that allows him to become an elite player. "Totally out of control," said one longtime rival coach, noting that at times, it looks like Lawrie will just keep running on the bases until somebody tags him out. Lawrie posted an OPS of .729 last season, and his average of pitches per plate appearance declined significantly, from 4.07 to 3.66. Remember, he's just 22; he turns 23 in a couple of weeks. Clearly, Lawrie could be a great player. Or not.
[h=3]8. Washington Nationals[/h]
Within the industry, the expectation is that Washington will eventually re-sign Adam LaRoche -- and if that happens, the Nationals would have a top-five infield, with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, shortstop Ian Desmond and second baseman Danny Espinosa. Keep in mind, too, that third-base prospect Anthony Rendon, a high-impact hitter taken in the 2011 draft, could advance to the big leagues sometime in 2013, though the presence of Zimmerman makes his future position unclear.
The X factor: LaRoche. He wants a three-year deal; the Nationals have been offering two years. Because Washington gave him a qualifying offer, he is tied to draft-pick compensation, which has scared off some other teams.
[h=3]9. San Francisco Giants[/h]
The fact that Marco Scutaro got a three-year deal was a stunner in other front offices, but hey, all the Giants saw from him, in his three months with the team, was excellence. Scutaro, who turned 37 in October, hit .362 in the regular season for the Giants, before batting .328 in the postseason. Brandon Crawford might be baseball's best defensive shortstop, and he hit a respectable .260 in the second half of the season. Brandon Belt might have finally established himself as a regular for the Giants, after posting a .781 OPS last season.
The X factor: One of the interesting questions of the Giants' spring training will be the physical condition of Pablo Sandoval, who put on a lot of weight last season -- and helped San Francisco win the World Series, anyway, hitting .325 with six homers in 83 postseason at-bats. Some rival evaluators fretted during October that his success would take him away from good habits through the winter -- and given the structure of their team, the Giants really need him to be an effective player, whatever his weight.
[h=3]10. Kansas City Royals[/h]
There could be a year when the Royals could be at the very top of this list, depending on the development of corner infielders Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Some scouts thought Moustakas wore down over his first full season in the big leagues -- his OPS dropped from .817 in the first half to .586 in the second half -- but he had a good year defensively. Hosmer started slowly in 2012, hitting .188 in April, and was never really able to bounce back. But his struggles didn't diminish the perception of him as a player of great potential -- and there may not be a player in the majors whose development is more crucial to his team for the upcoming season than him. Shortstop Alcides Escobar has already made solid improvement at the plate, pushing his OPS upward by 100 points over the last two seasons and becoming one of the most efficient base-stealers in the majors; he had 35 in 40 attempts last season. His defense is well-regarded by rival evaluators, but now that he's 26, the Royals would probably like to see some of his defensive mistakes cleaned up.
The X factor: Hosmer. If he climbs back onto the trajectory scouts saw him on in 2011, the Royals' lineup will look very different.
[h=3]Best of the rest[/h]
[h=3]Cleveland Indians[/h]
They have hung onto shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera after listening to offers for him, and given the additions of Terry Francona, Nick Swisher, Trevor Bauer and now Brett Myers, it figures Cleveland will at least let the first half of the season play out before considering dealing Cabrera again. He is the anchor to what should be a good infield: Mark Reynolds at first base, where he played well defensively for the Orioles last year; second baseman Jason Kipnis, who had a solid 2012 season of 40 extra-base hits and 31 steals; and Lonnie Chisenhall and Mike Aviles at third.
The X factor: The presence of Francona. The Indians completely collapsed in the second half of last season, a collective disintegration that seemed to take down numbers for a whole bunch of players. Whether you want to attribute that to frustration or a lack of focus, it would seem that the Indians have a better chance of playing all the way through the whole season this year.
[h=3]St. Louis Cardinals[/h]
Allen Craig has developed into one of the game's best-hitting first basemen, and now, with Lance Berkman gone, the position belongs to him. Third baseman David Freese probably wasn't as consistent as he would've liked, but in the end he posted a year of an .839 OPS and 20 homers. There are questions for St. Louis at shortstop and second base, which is why the Cards talked to the Indians about Cabrera in the offseason.
[h=3]Houston's transition[/h]
The Houston Astros are moving to the American League for the 2013 at a time when they are coming off a 55-win season and are still early in a total organizational reconstruction. Because of this, their switch could lead to a tangible shift in a divisional balance of power.
Rival officials have privately noted that the Astros' move to the AL West could help those teams make the playoffs. But there is statistical data that suggests the Houston move could simultaneously hurt their former brethren in the NL Central.
In response to a request from ESPN about the impact of the Astros' shift to the AL, Stephen Oh of AccuScore sent along these notes:
"I was able to run a season simulation with our projected lineups. Our actual [formal] win forecast is still very subject to change, but the initial numbers for the impact of wins on the two divisions most impacted by the Houston re-alignment are pretty interesting:
• The Angels, Rangers, A's and Mariners see an average of plus-3.2 wins with Houston in their division.
• The NL Central teams see a drop of -2.7 wins on average.
• The difference in wins results in a plus-3.4 percent chance of making the playoffs for the AL West teams and a minus-3.4 percent impact on the NL Central teams of making the playoffs.
• The AL Central and East teams improve their wins slightly, but their playoff chances dip slightly because of the more significant bump by the AL West teams [that will play more games against Houston].
• The NL West and NL East teams see win totals go down slightly but playoff odds go up slightly."
Here are more details, from AccuScore, which simulated the season with current rosters based on 2012 and 2013 alignments.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Rising west[/h]Projecting the current roster of every AL West team using the 2012 and 2013 alignments.
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<!-- end inline 1 --><!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Central demise[/h]Projecting the current roster of every NL Central team using the 2012 and 2013 alignments.
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
<!-- end inline 2 --><!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Division impact[/h]How the Astros' move affects other divisions.
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<!-- end inline 3 -->
[h=3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h]
1. David Price agreed to terms, for a bit over $10 million. The assumption within the industry is that the Rays are going to trade Price sometime in the next calendar year, a perception that will only be reinforced by this latest one-year agreement.
2. This is a key year for Charlie Manuel, writes Bob Brookover.
3. Brett Myers will move into the Cleveland rotation, after getting a nice endorsement from former Astros Manager Brad Mills, now a coach with the Indians. Right now, their rotation is shaping up this way: Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez and Brett Myers will go into spring training as the projected 1-2-3, and two will be added from the group that includes Scott Kazmir, Carlos Carrasco, Zach McAllister, Corey Kluber, David Huff, Jeanmar Gomez and Bauer.
4. The Seattle Mariners have called the Los Angeles Dodgers repeatedly about Andre Ethier, and while the Dodgers' intention is to open the season with him as their right fielder, they have told other teams all winter that they're always willing to listen to offers. As of now, the Mariners haven't been moved to present any, sources say.
[h=3]Other stuff[/h]
• Katie Hamilton keeps the faith, writes Marcia Smith.
• Starting pitching is a concern for the Red Sox, writes Peter Abraham.
• A sad story about Sammy Khalifa, former big-league shortstop.
• Vanderbilt is optimistic about its next football season, writes Jeff Lockridge.
And today will be better than yesterday.
</offer>
Buster Olney
ESPN INSIDER
[h=3]1. Texas Rangers[/h]
The Rangers' plan is to give Mitch Moreland a chance to establish himself as the first baseman in spring training, but they will also be devoted to the concept of making sure their best players will be in the lineup; if it becomes clear that Jurickson Profar -- who turns 20 next month -- is one of those guys, he'll play. Profar was shut down in winter ball because of an elbow problem, but the Rangers say he's fine now and is ready to go. The left side of the Texas infield is dynamic defensively, with MVP candidate Adrian Beltre at third and the improved Elvis Andrus at shortstop. Andrus is only 24 years old and still developing as an offensive player, and he showed in the first half that he has room to grow.
The X factor: Ian Kinsler. There was a general regression throughout almost every part of the Rangers' lineup as last season progressed, from Josh Hamilton to Michael Young, but Kinsler's decline may have been the most perplexing. At age 30, his OPS slid by 83 points from 2011 to 2012; his WAR went from 7.1 to 2.0 in the same time frame. The damage he did against fastballs dropped considerably last year. As Profar emerges, Kinsler could be asked to change positions and move to first base, as he has acknowledged, but no matter where he plays, the Rangers will need better production out of him than they got last season; when at his best, Kinsler can be an elite hitter, among infielders.
<offer>
[h=3]2. Detroit Tigers[/h]Let's get this out of the way: The Tigers' infield defense was the worst in the majors last season because of plays not made, and for a sinker-ball pitcher like Rick Porcello, the lack of range is a problem. But in the end, Detroit reached the World Series largely because of the offensive excellence of Miguel Cabrera, who had the first Triple Crown season in almost half a century, and Prince Fielder, who made a seamless transition in his first season in Detroit. Those two combined for 74 homers and 247 RBIs.
"They're the best 1-2 punch in the big leagues," an AL general manager said recently. A very underrated part of what Cabrera and Fielder provide is their devotion to playing daily: They answer the bell, every day. Over the last seven seasons, Cabrera and Fielder have missed a total of 40 games. Omar Infante seemingly put a lot of pressure on himself after joining the Tigers in a midseason trade, before settling in and playing better down in the last weeks; he should be better this year.
The X factor: Their shortstop situation. The Tigers exercised the 2013 option for Jhonny Peralta, who is steady but limited, especially on defense. But they demonstrated during the winter that they're open to a possible upgrade, and it'll be interesting to see if Peralta holds this position throughout the season, or if Detroit aggressively looks for an alternative during the year.
[h=3]3. Cincinnati Reds[/h]
If Texas has the best left side in baseball, the Reds probably have the best right side, with Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips, who both excel offensively and defensively. Votto will presumably go into this season fully recovered from the multiple rounds of knee surgery he had last year, and with Shin-Soo Choo joining the Reds, Phillips figures to slide into the No. 2 spot in the Cincinnati lineup. Dusty Baker had to work to get Todd Frazier into the lineup at times last season, but with Scott Rolen closer to retirement, Frazier becomes the every-day guy at third, after posting an .829 OPS in 128 games last year. It's worth noting that while the Reds' hitters generally benefit from hitting in a cozy home park, Frazier fared better on the road than at home in 2012, by a good margin -- his OPS away from Cincinnati was 85 points higher, at .871. Shortstop Zack Cozart, 27, has some pop.
The X factor: For the first time in Votto's time with the Reds, the sum of their parts could really help him to a monster season. In recent years, Cincinnati has sometimes lacked a leadoff hitter who consistently gets on base, or good left-handed/right-handed balance, or depth through the 4-5-6 spots in their lineup. But with the addition of Choo at the top of their lineup, the Reds might have the best group they've ever had around Votto, who finished 2012 with a career-high 1.041 OPS. It could be a really big summer for him.
[h=3]4. Tampa Bay Rays[/h]
Sure, nobody knows exactly what they'll get out of first baseman James Loney, who is probably getting his last full-time shot to show that he can be a consistent run producer. And Tampa Bay's Yunel Escobar experiment will be fascinating; just as the Blue Jays did, they're betting that his talent (and the incredible team-friendly contract) will outweigh all his personality quirks and perceived lack of focus. But no matter what they get out of Loney and Escobar, the Rays should have two bedrocks in their infield, health permitting: Third baseman Evan Longoria and second baseman Ben Zobrist. Over Longoria's last 207 games, he has 48 homers and 154 RBIs, while playing in a home ballpark that's not exactly hitter-friendly, and Zobrist is a WAR superstar; he finished 16th in the majors in 2012 (FanGraphs' version) and 11th in 2011.
The X factor: Escobar. One of the folks in the Toronto organization summed up the shortstop in this way: "Every day, he makes at least one major mistake on defense or running the bases." That's a tendency that runs counter to the Rays' working philosophy, of course; Tampa Bay needs to be efficient. But Escobar is also capable of game-changing at-bats and superlative defense. The question is whether he'll drive the Rays crazy while they wait for those moments -- which is what happened in Atlanta and in Toronto. There's a reason someone who is perceived to be so talented has bounced to four teams (including the Marlins) in four seasons.
[h=3]5. New York Yankees[/h]
Robinson Cano is the game's best second baseman, and if the contract-year theory applies in his case -- he's eligible for free agency in the fall -- he could contend for the MVP award, again. Around him, there are stars capable of great things, even as older players: Derek Jeter led the majors in hits last season, at age 38. Mark Teixeira had 52 extra-base hits in 123 games in what was perceived to be a down year for him in 2012. Only two seasons ago, Kevin Youkilis posted a .411 on-base percentage for the Red Sox. And sometime in midseason, the Yankees believe, Alex Rodriguez will be back from his surgery.
The X factor: The ravages of age; the Yankees are hanging on the physical cliff. Jeter is coming back from a broken leg and, as he has noted himself with some humor, he has reached the age when everybody wonders, year to year, if he can still play. Teixeira turns 33 in April and his OPS has dropped each of the last four seasons:
2008: .962
2009: .948
2010: .846
2011: .835
2012: .807
There was a difference of about 400 OPS points in Youkilis' home/road splits last season, which was a red flag for some teams. Given that Rodriguez is 37 and has now had major surgery on both hips, the Yankees really have no idea whether he can be an effective player anymore.
[h=3]6. Atlanta Braves[/h]It's still not entirely clear how the Braves will replace Chipper Jones at third base; Martin Prado could be the full-time third baseman, or Atlanta could work the powerful Juan Francisco into the mix against some right-handed pitchers and shift Prado to left field on some days. No matter how the Braves decide to go, however, their infield should be one of the best, now that Andrelton Simmons is established as one of the sport's best young shortstops and Freddie Freeman is emerging as a run-producer. Freeman was hampered for weeks by eye trouble -- which has since been fixed -- but still closed the year with 58 extra-base hits after having a strong second half.
The X factor: The Braves need more peaks than valleys from Dan Uggla, whose slugging percentage has dropped from .503 in 2010 to .453 in 2011 to .384 last year.
[h=3]7. Toronto Blue Jays[/h]
It's a group that seems to have excellent potential: Edwin Encarnacion at first base, coming off a season in which he clubbed 42 homers and drove in 110 runs; shortstop Jose Reyes, winner of the NL batting title two years ago; Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis at second base; and the crazily talented Brett Lawrie at third base, where he has quickly adapted defensively. But as with all teams, there are questions: Is Encarnacion just a late bloomer, like Jose Bautista, or a one-year wonder? Can Reyes, who has a long history of leg problems, stay healthy while playing on Toronto's artificial surface? How much will Bonifacio -- who has been successful in 82 of 96 stolen-base attempts over the last three seasons -- contribute as a regular player?
The X factor: When you listen to rival evaluators talk about Lawrie, they sound like old cowboys talking about a mustang they saw running across the range. Lawrie impresses the heck out of them with his physical tools and his passion, yet they have doubts about whether he can ever be reined in and refined in a way that allows him to become an elite player. "Totally out of control," said one longtime rival coach, noting that at times, it looks like Lawrie will just keep running on the bases until somebody tags him out. Lawrie posted an OPS of .729 last season, and his average of pitches per plate appearance declined significantly, from 4.07 to 3.66. Remember, he's just 22; he turns 23 in a couple of weeks. Clearly, Lawrie could be a great player. Or not.
[h=3]8. Washington Nationals[/h]
Within the industry, the expectation is that Washington will eventually re-sign Adam LaRoche -- and if that happens, the Nationals would have a top-five infield, with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, shortstop Ian Desmond and second baseman Danny Espinosa. Keep in mind, too, that third-base prospect Anthony Rendon, a high-impact hitter taken in the 2011 draft, could advance to the big leagues sometime in 2013, though the presence of Zimmerman makes his future position unclear.
The X factor: LaRoche. He wants a three-year deal; the Nationals have been offering two years. Because Washington gave him a qualifying offer, he is tied to draft-pick compensation, which has scared off some other teams.
[h=3]9. San Francisco Giants[/h]
The fact that Marco Scutaro got a three-year deal was a stunner in other front offices, but hey, all the Giants saw from him, in his three months with the team, was excellence. Scutaro, who turned 37 in October, hit .362 in the regular season for the Giants, before batting .328 in the postseason. Brandon Crawford might be baseball's best defensive shortstop, and he hit a respectable .260 in the second half of the season. Brandon Belt might have finally established himself as a regular for the Giants, after posting a .781 OPS last season.
The X factor: One of the interesting questions of the Giants' spring training will be the physical condition of Pablo Sandoval, who put on a lot of weight last season -- and helped San Francisco win the World Series, anyway, hitting .325 with six homers in 83 postseason at-bats. Some rival evaluators fretted during October that his success would take him away from good habits through the winter -- and given the structure of their team, the Giants really need him to be an effective player, whatever his weight.
[h=3]10. Kansas City Royals[/h]
There could be a year when the Royals could be at the very top of this list, depending on the development of corner infielders Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Some scouts thought Moustakas wore down over his first full season in the big leagues -- his OPS dropped from .817 in the first half to .586 in the second half -- but he had a good year defensively. Hosmer started slowly in 2012, hitting .188 in April, and was never really able to bounce back. But his struggles didn't diminish the perception of him as a player of great potential -- and there may not be a player in the majors whose development is more crucial to his team for the upcoming season than him. Shortstop Alcides Escobar has already made solid improvement at the plate, pushing his OPS upward by 100 points over the last two seasons and becoming one of the most efficient base-stealers in the majors; he had 35 in 40 attempts last season. His defense is well-regarded by rival evaluators, but now that he's 26, the Royals would probably like to see some of his defensive mistakes cleaned up.
The X factor: Hosmer. If he climbs back onto the trajectory scouts saw him on in 2011, the Royals' lineup will look very different.
[h=3]Best of the rest[/h]
[h=3]Cleveland Indians[/h]
They have hung onto shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera after listening to offers for him, and given the additions of Terry Francona, Nick Swisher, Trevor Bauer and now Brett Myers, it figures Cleveland will at least let the first half of the season play out before considering dealing Cabrera again. He is the anchor to what should be a good infield: Mark Reynolds at first base, where he played well defensively for the Orioles last year; second baseman Jason Kipnis, who had a solid 2012 season of 40 extra-base hits and 31 steals; and Lonnie Chisenhall and Mike Aviles at third.
The X factor: The presence of Francona. The Indians completely collapsed in the second half of last season, a collective disintegration that seemed to take down numbers for a whole bunch of players. Whether you want to attribute that to frustration or a lack of focus, it would seem that the Indians have a better chance of playing all the way through the whole season this year.
[h=3]St. Louis Cardinals[/h]
Allen Craig has developed into one of the game's best-hitting first basemen, and now, with Lance Berkman gone, the position belongs to him. Third baseman David Freese probably wasn't as consistent as he would've liked, but in the end he posted a year of an .839 OPS and 20 homers. There are questions for St. Louis at shortstop and second base, which is why the Cards talked to the Indians about Cabrera in the offseason.
[h=3]Houston's transition[/h]
The Houston Astros are moving to the American League for the 2013 at a time when they are coming off a 55-win season and are still early in a total organizational reconstruction. Because of this, their switch could lead to a tangible shift in a divisional balance of power.
Rival officials have privately noted that the Astros' move to the AL West could help those teams make the playoffs. But there is statistical data that suggests the Houston move could simultaneously hurt their former brethren in the NL Central.
In response to a request from ESPN about the impact of the Astros' shift to the AL, Stephen Oh of AccuScore sent along these notes:
"I was able to run a season simulation with our projected lineups. Our actual [formal] win forecast is still very subject to change, but the initial numbers for the impact of wins on the two divisions most impacted by the Houston re-alignment are pretty interesting:
• The Angels, Rangers, A's and Mariners see an average of plus-3.2 wins with Houston in their division.
• The NL Central teams see a drop of -2.7 wins on average.
• The difference in wins results in a plus-3.4 percent chance of making the playoffs for the AL West teams and a minus-3.4 percent impact on the NL Central teams of making the playoffs.
• The AL Central and East teams improve their wins slightly, but their playoff chances dip slightly because of the more significant bump by the AL West teams [that will play more games against Houston].
• The NL West and NL East teams see win totals go down slightly but playoff odds go up slightly."
Here are more details, from AccuScore, which simulated the season with current rosters based on 2012 and 2013 alignments.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Rising west[/h]Projecting the current roster of every AL West team using the 2012 and 2013 alignments.
| AL WEST | '12 wins | '13 wins | '12 playoff odds | '13 playoff odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | 91.4 | 96.5 | 80.1% | 91.9% |
| Rangers | 85.4 | 86.7 | 43.4% | 41.2% |
| Athletics | 83.9 | 85.7 | 33.7% | 34.3% |
| Mariners | 73.9 | 78.3 | 2.6% | 5.9% |
| Astros | 54.2 | 54.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AVG (Excluding HOU) | 83.7 | 86.8 | 39.9% | 43.3% |
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<!-- end inline 1 --><!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Central demise[/h]Projecting the current roster of every NL Central team using the 2012 and 2013 alignments.
| NL CENTRAL | '12 wins | '13 wins | '12 playoff odds | '13 playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 92.7 | 90.6 | 63.3% | 60.6% |
| Reds | 93.3 | 90.6 | 67.4% | 60.1% |
| Brewers | 90.9 | 88.3 | 52.5% | 45.7% |
| Pirates | 71.4 | 67.9 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Cubs | 70.1 | 67.7 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| AVERAGE | 83.7 | 81.0 | 36.7% | 33.3% |
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<!-- end inline 2 --><!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Division impact[/h]How the Astros' move affects other divisions.
| OTHER DIVISIONS | '12 wins | '13 wins | '12 playoff odds | '13 playoff odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL CENTRAL | 79.8 | 80.3 | 37.3% | 36.0% |
| AL EAST | 81.2 | 82.5 | 30.6% | 29.1% |
| NL EAST | 81.1 | 80.6 | 33.0% | 35.3% |
| NL WEST | 82.5 | 81.3 | 30.1% | 31.2% |
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[h=3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h]
1. David Price agreed to terms, for a bit over $10 million. The assumption within the industry is that the Rays are going to trade Price sometime in the next calendar year, a perception that will only be reinforced by this latest one-year agreement.
2. This is a key year for Charlie Manuel, writes Bob Brookover.
3. Brett Myers will move into the Cleveland rotation, after getting a nice endorsement from former Astros Manager Brad Mills, now a coach with the Indians. Right now, their rotation is shaping up this way: Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez and Brett Myers will go into spring training as the projected 1-2-3, and two will be added from the group that includes Scott Kazmir, Carlos Carrasco, Zach McAllister, Corey Kluber, David Huff, Jeanmar Gomez and Bauer.
4. The Seattle Mariners have called the Los Angeles Dodgers repeatedly about Andre Ethier, and while the Dodgers' intention is to open the season with him as their right fielder, they have told other teams all winter that they're always willing to listen to offers. As of now, the Mariners haven't been moved to present any, sources say.
[h=3]Other stuff[/h]
• Katie Hamilton keeps the faith, writes Marcia Smith.
• Starting pitching is a concern for the Red Sox, writes Peter Abraham.
• A sad story about Sammy Khalifa, former big-league shortstop.
• Vanderbilt is optimistic about its next football season, writes Jeff Lockridge.
And today will be better than yesterday.
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