[h=1]Milwaukee's Best: Ersan Ilyasova[/h][h=3]Brook Lopez tops weekly barometer, but is more Melo too much?[/h]
By Bradford Doolittle | Basketball Prospectus
The Milwaukee Bucks never seem to grab any headlines, but they have been quietly edging up the standings in the East with strong play in recent weeks and have been doing so with a rotation that has been slowly fallen into place.
Theoretically, the Bucks should be one of the biggest teams in the league. They feature a roster deep in frontcourt talent, and coming into the season the quandary seemed to be how all that size was going to be deployed. While Scott Skiles continues to cycle through the likes of Samuel Dalembert, Drew Gooden, Ekpe Udoh, Joel Przybilla and John Henson, his team has found its stride by going sneakily small.
Skiles' rotation fell into place when he started bringing struggling power forward Ersan Ilyasova off the bench. Meanwhile, natural power forward Larry Sanders emerged from the crowd to take over at center, part of the reason the Bucks skew small in my True Position analysis. Lately, Skiles has been rotating Ilyasova with combo forward Luc Mbah a Moute at the 4, making the Bucks even smaller, especially considering they start the most diminutive backcourt in the league.
Mbah a Moute isn't ever going to show up in the Barometer rankings because so much of his value is hidden, but his return from early-season knee trouble has been important. His ability to guard bigs has keyed the league's fourth-best defensive efficiency over the last couple of weeks and freed Sanders to function as more of a freelance rim protector, which is a role he fills well.
All in all, Milwaukee has basically been able to break even with Mbah a Moute on the floor even though he contributes so little on offense. The Bucks are nearly four points better defensively for each 100 possessions Mbah a Moute is in the game, and Milwaukee is 9-7 since he returned at the beginning of December.
It's not one of the glossier stories from the first half of the 2012-13 season, but Mbah a Moute's return and Milwaukee's subsequent success is the kind of thing that provides plenty of fodder for those trying to quantify the intangible aspects of the game.
One interesting note: The season-to-date rankings are at the bottom, but it's important to point out during the Knicks' fabulous start, Carmelo Anthony was mostly outside of our season-long top 10. As New York has cooled, Anthony has gradually moved into the season-to-date rankings, and this week he tops out at No. 3. Of course, New York has now lost five of eight. Could be a case of more Melo being a bad thing for New York? It's something to watch.
I'll be mixing in some more observations from NETPOST analysis in the rest of this week's Barometer. Details on how the Big Man Barometer is compiled and the true position system can be found here.
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[h=3]Top 10 Big Man Performances[/h]Week of Dec. 26-Jan. 1. Players listed by winning percentage. Any player who played at least 30 minutes total at center or power forward last week is eligible for the rankings. Also included at the bottom are big man projections for next week.
<offer>[h=3]1. Brook Lopez | Brooklyn Nets (.859)[/h]<offer><!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Lopez</center>
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Maybe it's a coincidence, but Lopez has been on a tear under interim coach P.J. Carlesimo. In four games since Avery Johnson was axed, Lopez is averaging 24 points on 62 percent shooting to go with 8 rebounds per night. The 97 points Lopez has had during that stretch matches his best four-game scoring total of the season.
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[h=3]2. Ersan Ilyasova | Milwaukee Bucks (.854)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Ilyasova</center>
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As a starter, Ilyasova averaged 10.8 points per 40 minutes on 32 percent shooting. As a reserve, he's at 18.7 points and 46 percent. After a slow start to the season, sometimes these questions answer themselves.
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[h=3]3. LeBron James| Miami Heat (.843)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>James</center>
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A typical week for James, as he played 69 percent of his minutes at power forward. That's about one percent more than his season average. He's set up shop on the Barometer for the past several weeks.
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[h=3]4. Charlie Villanueva | Detroit Pistons (.776)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Villanueva</center>
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The Pistons' strong play of late has been keyed by a second unit that has really come together, and perpetual amnesty candidate Villanueva has been a big part of that. In Detroit's past 10 games, he's shooting 42 percent from deep while meshing well with rookie Andre Drummond.
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[h=3]5. Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons (.772)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Drummond</center>
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Speaking of the rookie, in that same 10-game stretch Drummond is one of three reserves to lead the Pistons in WARP. He's on top, followed by Villanueva and Will Bynum. Greg Monroe slots in as the top starter, but another reserve -- Austin Daye -- follows him. According to NBA.com, lineups featuring the four aforementioned reserves have outscored opponents by 31.8 points per 100 possessions this season.
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[h=3]6. Matt Bonner, San Antonio Spurs (.767)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Bonner</center>
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When Bonner shows up on this list you know the 3s are falling. Indeed, he hit 7-of-15 in three San Antonio wins last week and is shooting a league-best 53 percent from downtown on the season.
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[h=3]7. Josh Smith | Atlanta Hawks (.742)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Smith</center>
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The maturation of Smith can be best found on the defensive end this season. For all his high-flying ways, five years ago the Hawks were better defensively when Smith was off the floor. That's no longer the case. According to Basketball-Reference.com, this season the Hawks have allowed 6.8 fewer points per 100 possessions with Smith in the game.
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[h=3]8. DeAndre Jordan | Los Angeles Clippers (.740)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Jordan</center>
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The Clippers' winning streak finally ended, but you knew that had to happen at some point. What you may have thought you'd never see was Jordan making more than half his free throws in a week, but he did. Jordan sank 51.9 percent of his charity tosses, to be exact. And yes, those banked-in free throws count.
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[h=3]9. Tyler Hansbrough | Indiana Pacers (.739)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Hansbrough</center>
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Hansbrough has been coming on strong of late as the Pacers continue to edge back into the thick of the race for a home court seed in the East. Good timing for Hansbrough, who is coming off a poor season and faces restricted free agency this summer.
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[h=3]10. Marreese Speights | Memphis Grizzlies (.721)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Speights</center>
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The current version of the Grizzlies has been one of the league's best offensive rebounding teams in recent seasons. The face of that stat has been Zach Randolph, but here's something you probably didn't realize: Speights has grabbed a higher percentage of his team's own misses while on the floor this season -- 15.6 percent to 15.3. That's pretty impressive for a player with a reputation for floating on the perimeter.
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[h=3]Three to watch[/h]
Ed Davis | Toronto Raptors
<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Davis</center>
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With Jonas Valanciunas out for at least the next month with a broken finger, this may be Davis' time to shine. On a per-minute basis, Davis has been much improved during his third NBA season. His 19.7 PER is easily a career best, and it's been driven by an offensive game that has become a little more varied than dunking lob passes. His usage rate is 17.8 percent, which is still low but is four percent higher than last season.
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Nikola Vucevic | Orlando Magic
<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Vucevic</center>
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Guess who is the NBA's newest rebounding superstar? It's Nikola Vucevic, who entered the season as the second-best center named Nikola in the league. That's probably still the case as Minnesota's Nikola Pekovic is really good, but it's Vucevic who led the NBA in total rebounds during December. Vucevic grabbed 29 boards against Miami on New Year's Eve, which is five more than any other player has had in a game this season.
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Tyler Zeller | Cleveland Cavaliers
<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Zeller</center>
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Anderson Varejao is edging closer to returning from a knee issue, so Zeller's time in the starting lineup is about to end. He's struggled for the most part, but the time that Zeller has spent in a young first five with Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson should prove to be valuable in the big picture for Cleveland. In the meantime, Zeller will able to apply what he's learned as a starter against the reserves he'll be going against more often. Sometimes, that transition leads to spikes in efficiency and greater confidence in the long run. We'll see.
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Here are the top 25 big man projections for the week of Jan. 7-13 (forecast for all the players who qualified for this week's Barometer rankings):
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Top 25 Big Man Projections[/h]
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[h=3]Season to Date[/h](Players listed by WARP, minimum 270 minutes played at power forward or center)
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Season to date BMB rankings[/h]
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By Bradford Doolittle | Basketball Prospectus
The Milwaukee Bucks never seem to grab any headlines, but they have been quietly edging up the standings in the East with strong play in recent weeks and have been doing so with a rotation that has been slowly fallen into place.
Theoretically, the Bucks should be one of the biggest teams in the league. They feature a roster deep in frontcourt talent, and coming into the season the quandary seemed to be how all that size was going to be deployed. While Scott Skiles continues to cycle through the likes of Samuel Dalembert, Drew Gooden, Ekpe Udoh, Joel Przybilla and John Henson, his team has found its stride by going sneakily small.
Skiles' rotation fell into place when he started bringing struggling power forward Ersan Ilyasova off the bench. Meanwhile, natural power forward Larry Sanders emerged from the crowd to take over at center, part of the reason the Bucks skew small in my True Position analysis. Lately, Skiles has been rotating Ilyasova with combo forward Luc Mbah a Moute at the 4, making the Bucks even smaller, especially considering they start the most diminutive backcourt in the league.
Mbah a Moute isn't ever going to show up in the Barometer rankings because so much of his value is hidden, but his return from early-season knee trouble has been important. His ability to guard bigs has keyed the league's fourth-best defensive efficiency over the last couple of weeks and freed Sanders to function as more of a freelance rim protector, which is a role he fills well.
All in all, Milwaukee has basically been able to break even with Mbah a Moute on the floor even though he contributes so little on offense. The Bucks are nearly four points better defensively for each 100 possessions Mbah a Moute is in the game, and Milwaukee is 9-7 since he returned at the beginning of December.
It's not one of the glossier stories from the first half of the 2012-13 season, but Mbah a Moute's return and Milwaukee's subsequent success is the kind of thing that provides plenty of fodder for those trying to quantify the intangible aspects of the game.
One interesting note: The season-to-date rankings are at the bottom, but it's important to point out during the Knicks' fabulous start, Carmelo Anthony was mostly outside of our season-long top 10. As New York has cooled, Anthony has gradually moved into the season-to-date rankings, and this week he tops out at No. 3. Of course, New York has now lost five of eight. Could be a case of more Melo being a bad thing for New York? It's something to watch.
I'll be mixing in some more observations from NETPOST analysis in the rest of this week's Barometer. Details on how the Big Man Barometer is compiled and the true position system can be found here.
<offer></offer>
[h=3]Top 10 Big Man Performances[/h]Week of Dec. 26-Jan. 1. Players listed by winning percentage. Any player who played at least 30 minutes total at center or power forward last week is eligible for the rankings. Also included at the bottom are big man projections for next week.
<offer>[h=3]1. Brook Lopez | Brooklyn Nets (.859)[/h]<offer><!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Lopez</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Maybe it's a coincidence, but Lopez has been on a tear under interim coach P.J. Carlesimo. In four games since Avery Johnson was axed, Lopez is averaging 24 points on 62 percent shooting to go with 8 rebounds per night. The 97 points Lopez has had during that stretch matches his best four-game scoring total of the season.
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[h=3]2. Ersan Ilyasova | Milwaukee Bucks (.854)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Ilyasova</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
As a starter, Ilyasova averaged 10.8 points per 40 minutes on 32 percent shooting. As a reserve, he's at 18.7 points and 46 percent. After a slow start to the season, sometimes these questions answer themselves.
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</center>
[h=3]3. LeBron James| Miami Heat (.843)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>James</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
A typical week for James, as he played 69 percent of his minutes at power forward. That's about one percent more than his season average. He's set up shop on the Barometer for the past several weeks.
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</center>
[h=3]4. Charlie Villanueva | Detroit Pistons (.776)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Villanueva</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
The Pistons' strong play of late has been keyed by a second unit that has really come together, and perpetual amnesty candidate Villanueva has been a big part of that. In Detroit's past 10 games, he's shooting 42 percent from deep while meshing well with rookie Andre Drummond.
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</center>
[h=3]5. Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons (.772)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Drummond</center>
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Speaking of the rookie, in that same 10-game stretch Drummond is one of three reserves to lead the Pistons in WARP. He's on top, followed by Villanueva and Will Bynum. Greg Monroe slots in as the top starter, but another reserve -- Austin Daye -- follows him. According to NBA.com, lineups featuring the four aforementioned reserves have outscored opponents by 31.8 points per 100 possessions this season.
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</center>
[h=3]6. Matt Bonner, San Antonio Spurs (.767)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Bonner</center>
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When Bonner shows up on this list you know the 3s are falling. Indeed, he hit 7-of-15 in three San Antonio wins last week and is shooting a league-best 53 percent from downtown on the season.
<center>
</center>
[h=3]7. Josh Smith | Atlanta Hawks (.742)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Smith</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
The maturation of Smith can be best found on the defensive end this season. For all his high-flying ways, five years ago the Hawks were better defensively when Smith was off the floor. That's no longer the case. According to Basketball-Reference.com, this season the Hawks have allowed 6.8 fewer points per 100 possessions with Smith in the game.
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</center>
[h=3]8. DeAndre Jordan | Los Angeles Clippers (.740)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Jordan</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
The Clippers' winning streak finally ended, but you knew that had to happen at some point. What you may have thought you'd never see was Jordan making more than half his free throws in a week, but he did. Jordan sank 51.9 percent of his charity tosses, to be exact. And yes, those banked-in free throws count.
<center>
</center>
[h=3]9. Tyler Hansbrough | Indiana Pacers (.739)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Hansbrough</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Hansbrough has been coming on strong of late as the Pacers continue to edge back into the thick of the race for a home court seed in the East. Good timing for Hansbrough, who is coming off a poor season and faces restricted free agency this summer.
<center>
</center>
[h=3]10. Marreese Speights | Memphis Grizzlies (.721)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Speights</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
The current version of the Grizzlies has been one of the league's best offensive rebounding teams in recent seasons. The face of that stat has been Zach Randolph, but here's something you probably didn't realize: Speights has grabbed a higher percentage of his team's own misses while on the floor this season -- 15.6 percent to 15.3. That's pretty impressive for a player with a reputation for floating on the perimeter.
<center>
</center>
[h=3]Three to watch[/h]
Ed Davis | Toronto Raptors
<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Davis</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
With Jonas Valanciunas out for at least the next month with a broken finger, this may be Davis' time to shine. On a per-minute basis, Davis has been much improved during his third NBA season. His 19.7 PER is easily a career best, and it's been driven by an offensive game that has become a little more varied than dunking lob passes. His usage rate is 17.8 percent, which is still low but is four percent higher than last season.
<center>
</center>
Nikola Vucevic | Orlando Magic
<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Vucevic</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Guess who is the NBA's newest rebounding superstar? It's Nikola Vucevic, who entered the season as the second-best center named Nikola in the league. That's probably still the case as Minnesota's Nikola Pekovic is really good, but it's Vucevic who led the NBA in total rebounds during December. Vucevic grabbed 29 boards against Miami on New Year's Eve, which is five more than any other player has had in a game this season.
<center>
</center>
Tyler Zeller | Cleveland Cavaliers
<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Zeller</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Anderson Varejao is edging closer to returning from a knee issue, so Zeller's time in the starting lineup is about to end. He's struggled for the most part, but the time that Zeller has spent in a young first five with Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson should prove to be valuable in the big picture for Cleveland. In the meantime, Zeller will able to apply what he's learned as a starter against the reserves he'll be going against more often. Sometimes, that transition leads to spikes in efficiency and greater confidence in the long run. We'll see.
<center>
</center>
Here are the top 25 big man projections for the week of Jan. 7-13 (forecast for all the players who qualified for this week's Barometer rankings):
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Top 25 Big Man Projections[/h]
| PLAYER | POS | GP | FG% | 3M | REB | AST | STL | TO | BLK | PTS | SCORE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | SF | 3 | .535 | 1.1 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 30.3 | 25.9 | 77.7 |
| Kevin Love | PF | 4 | .501 | 1.6 | 11.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 22.6 | 19.1 | 76.6 |
| Dwight Howard | C | 4 | .623 | 0.0 | 12.7 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 18.5 | 17.1 | 68.2 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | PF | 4 | .509 | 0.1 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 21.7 | 16.6 | 66.4 |
| Al Horford | C | 4 | .535 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 16.2 | 15.5 | 62.1 |
| Al Jefferson | C | 4 | .494 | 0.0 | 9.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 18.1 | 14.6 | 58.2 |
| Joakim Noah | C | 4 | .520 | 0.0 | 12.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 13.6 | 14.6 | 58.2 |
| Ryan Anderson | PF | 4 | .426 | 3.7 | 7.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 19.2 | 14.5 | 58.1 |
| Josh Smith | PF | 4 | .450 | 0.3 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 16.9 | 14.1 | 56.6 |
| Marc Gasol | C | 4 | .523 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 53.6 |
| Zach Randolph | PF | 4 | .475 | 0.1 | 10.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 53.0 |
| Paul Millsap | PF | 4 | .512 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 52.6 |
| Tim Duncan | C | 4 | .473 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 15.1 | 12.9 | 51.4 |
| Pau Gasol | PF | 4 | .544 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 12.4 | 11.9 | 47.8 |
| David West | PF | 4 | .493 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 15.6 | 11.9 | 47.6 |
| Tyson Chandler | C | 4 | .620 | 0.0 | 9.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 45.9 |
| Carlos Boozer | PF | 4 | .528 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 14.6 | 11.3 | 45.3 |
| Chandler Parsons | SF | 4 | .458 | 2.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 14.6 | 11.1 | 44.3 |
| Marcin Gortat | C | 4 | .550 | 0.0 | 8.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 43.9 |
| Nikola Pekovic | C | 4 | .570 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 43.8 |
| David Lee | PF | 3 | .512 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 17.3 | 14.2 | 42.7 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | C | 3 | .483 | 0.0 | 9.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 19.1 | 13.8 | 41.3 |
| Chris Bosh | PF | 3 | .472 | 0.1 | 8.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 17.7 | 13.5 | 40.5 |
| Roy Hibbert | C | 4 | .503 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 12.3 | 10.1 | 40.4 |
| Serge Ibaka | PF | 4 | .528 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 39.8 |
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[h=3]Season to Date[/h](Players listed by WARP, minimum 270 minutes played at power forward or center)
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Season to date BMB rankings[/h]
| No. | Player | Team | (Season WARP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | LeBron James | Miami Heat | (8.86) |
| 2. | Tim Duncan | San Antonio Spurs | (5.89) |
| 3. | Carmelo Anthony | New York Knicks | (4.91) |
| 4. | Anderson Varejao | Cleveland Cavaliers | (4.82) |
| 5. | Ryan Anderson | New Orleans Hornets | (4.80) |
| 6. | Blake Griffin | Los Angeles Clippers | (4.56) |
| 7. | Joakim Noah | Chicago Bulls | (4.45) |
| 8. | Dwight Howard | Los Angeles Lakers | (4.41) |
| 9. | Tyson Chandler | New York Knicks | (4.38) |
| 10. | David Lee | Golden State Warriors | (4.11) |
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