Math Question/College Football Pool

thekid78 · Jan 7, 2013

I am in a bowl pool on Yahoo. You can change your picks until the game starts. They didn't all lock on the first game. Its a confidence pool. It was only 20 bucks to enter and only 20 entrants. First place gets 280, 2nd gets 80, 3rd gets 40.

I have 35 points on the title game.

My buddy is ahead of me and has Bama for like 27 points. I can't catch him for first unless I flip my pick to ND. No point spreads, these games are straight up.

I give ND about a 30% chance to win the game (which may be a little high).

If I stick with Bama and they win, I am guaranteed 2nd place, but can't win 1st.
If I take ND and they win, I win the whole thing. If they lose, I win nothing.

So here is the question (for you math geeks):

Would you rather have a 70% chance to win $80

OR

Would you rather have a 30% chance to win $280?

bigtendominator · Jan 7, 2013

Well, first of all it is a 50/50 shot.

Second, and you don't have to answer this question, except to yourself. Does getting your original $20 back + $60, have an effect on you. Meaning, the $20 you bet with important to you? I don't know your financial situation, but if the $80 matters than take Bama.

If yes, then take Bama.

If not take ND and consider you have ND $20 on the moneyline to win $280. That would be like getting ND +700 on the moneyline.

Hotpizza · Jan 7, 2013

Actually it would be Notre Dame +1400 20 to win 280

RudyRuetigger · Jan 7, 2013

Actually it'd be +1300

Hotpizza · Jan 7, 2013

RudyRuetigger said:
Actually it'd be +1300

If you want to take the $20 out of the bet. But to get $280 you have to have a ML of +1400 to get the wager of $20 to win $280.

RudyRuetigger · Jan 7, 2013

It's 20 to win 260.... To get 280 back, which is what he'd be doing

Hotpizza · Jan 7, 2013

In his case yes. 20 to gain 260 more.

RudyRuetigger · Jan 7, 2013

Hotpizza said:
When you place the bet at the sportsbook, the ticket reads:

The ticket reads: [270] Notre Dame +1400 20.00 USD / 280.00 USD

You get $300 back total if it wins. The $20 you wagered and $280 more. Not $280 total.

Yes. So what are you not understanding? He's only getting 280 back, not 300. Therefore it's +1300

thekid78 · Jan 7, 2013

Getting back the original bet doesn't matter. I was just wondering mathematically what the smarter play would be. I also think if I take Bama, but ND wins the game then I could still get 3rd place, but I am not 100% sure on that.

I didn't consider this a 50/50 shot because I don't really think it is. Alabama is the clear favorite to win the game, thus the 9.5 point spread. If it was truly 50/50 then the clear play is ND.

RudyRuetigger · Jan 7, 2013

Given your confidence levels, notre dame is the best play......depending on where the line actually closes, it could be different though

PatsFan1283 · Jan 7, 2013

Umm Kid78 I think you owe me a PM at the very least.

Not ready to call you a stiff yet but I'm close...

Akillies · Jan 7, 2013

take the money and run

soonerfanjames · Jan 7, 2013

PatsFan1283 said:
Umm Kid78 I think you owe me a PM at the very least.

Not ready to call you a stiff yet but I'm close...

Umm, Explain please

bigtendominator · Jan 7, 2013

Why the he'll did I write +700?

Whoever said +1300 is correct.

PatsFan1283 · Jan 7, 2013

soonerfanjames said:
Umm, Explain please

I hate to throw this guy under the bus so I'll wait a day or two and see if he tries to get in contact with me. Our bet was made in a thread though so anyone can find it (Brooklyn Nets bet)

Jstack34 · Jan 7, 2013

Link to bet-pats?

And just compute the expected value of .70 * 80 vs .30 * 280

thekid78 · Jan 7, 2013

Pats, I am happy to still make the bet. Last time I looked neither one of us have sent the money to BAS to hold it. Its easy for you to say let me know when you have sent the money. Go ahead and send it and Ill follow. I work 55 hours a week and am hardly ever on here anymore. I would consider this about an even proposition still.

Also, for the record...you can't be a stiff on a bet that doesn't end until April. You're a clown

PatsFan1283 · Jan 8, 2013

thekid78 said:
Pats, I am happy to still make the bet. Last time I looked neither one of us have sent the money to BAS to hold it. Its easy for you to say let me know when you have sent the money. Go ahead and send it and Ill follow. I work 55 hours a week and am hardly ever on here anymore. I would consider this about an even proposition still.

Also, for the record...you can't be a stiff on a bet that doesn't end until April. You're a clown

Are you kidding me man? You said we'll both send the $ to BAS and then you got ghost for 2 months and I'm a clown? I told you numerous times just tell me when/where to send it and you never did.

You can't be a stiff on a bet that doesn't end until April? Umm, we said we would give the $ to BAS and you DISAPPEARED for 2 months.

Calling me a clown about this seems like the last thing you wanna do. The first thing you wanna do is just manup and say you are really sorry and never sent the $ to BAS or told me to send it because you were really busy or some other BS excuse.

Fact of the matter is, if Brooklyn was 24-10 instead of 19-15 how do I even know you would be posting right now? C'mon use your head.

PatsFan1283 · Jan 8, 2013

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=924341&p=9772314&highlight=#post9772314

said post......I'd show PMs too but honestly I deleted them all never thinking this guy would be back/not really caring.

thekid78 · Jan 8, 2013

I "ghost" for 2 months? Its called having a job, a wife, a family and being busy. How about this...we make the bet and when its OVER we just pay the other guy. If someone doesn't pay, then they are a stiff. Like I said, you can't be a stiff for a bet that doesn't end for another 3 months.

I have posted here since 2004 and I have 2200 posts. Its not like I have ever been a consistent poster here or anywhere else. I do this for entertainment WHEN IM BORED. A bet is a bet and I fully intend on following through with it. You need to relax on calling people out 3 months before a bet ends.