Service Plays Wednesday 1/9/13

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Study Group: Wednesday's Top 25 NCAAB Betting Notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on all of Tuesday’s ranked college basketball games:

Iowa State Cyclones at Kansas Jayhawks (-13.5, 149)

Winners of 11 in a row, No. 6 Kansas will attempt to extend the nation’s second-longest home winning streak on Wednesday when it hosts Iowa State in the Big 12 opener for both teams. The Jayhawks collected their 30th straight win at Allen Fieldhouse in Sunday’s 69-62 victory over Temple to improve to 12-1 or better for the third time in four seasons. Kansas outshot its opponent for the 11th time and has outrebounded all but one of its foes this season – the latter of which may get tested against the Cyclones, who are surprisingly one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. Iowa State has won four straight but is 0-2 against ranked teams this season and will need to play better than it did last Tuesday when it trailed Yale at home for most of the game before securing an 80-70 win.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines (-24, 127)

It’s been more than a month since second-ranked Michigan has been in a real close battle, winning by an average of almost 25 points in its last eight games. The Wolverines look to continue their focused, efficient play and match the best start in the program’s history (1985-86) with a victory over visiting Nebraska on Wednesday. Michigan is coming off scoring at least 90 points in back-to-back league games for the first time since 2000 and has four players averaging in double figures, led by reigning Big Ten player of the week Trey Burke. Nebraska must find a way to limit the Wolverines from beyond the 3-point arc where they are among the best in the nation at 42.3 percent. The Cornhuskers have lost three of their last four and could be without two regulars.

Louisville Cardinals at Seton Hall Pirates (+9, 138)

Fourth-ranked Louisville seeks its ninth consecutive victory when it visits Seton Hall in Big East play on Wednesday. The Cardinals are off to their third-best start in coach Rick Pitino’s 12-season tenure and are excelling on the offensive side, scoring 80 points on eight occasions. But the defense has frustrated Pitino despite the fact the Cardinals are allowing just 57.5 points per outing. “We’re continuing to win with offense, protecting the ball and not turning it over and scoring the ball well,” Pitino said. “Our defense is nowhere near where we want it to be. Once our defense catches up with our offense, we have a chance to be a special team.” Seton Hall lost 93-75 to Notre Dame on Saturday to end a seven-game win streak. The Pirates are 8-0 at home against a slate of light foes.

Syracuse Orange at Providence Friars (+10, 134)

While No. 7 Syracuse possesses one of the top offenses in the nation, its defense might ultimately be responsible if it challenges for its second national championship. The Orange visit Providence on Wednesday and should have little trouble with the Friars, who have lost four straight. Syracuse, which has won four in a row since its 83-79 loss to Temple on Dec. 22, began the week 14th in the country in scoring at 79.9 points and tied for 18th in defense at 57.1 while yielding 48.8 points in its last four games. Those numbers also produce the No. 2 scoring margin in the nation and have many believing the Orange will be one of four teams still playing in April.

Butler Bulldogs at St. Joseph's Hawks (-3, 125)

Butler makes its Atlantic 10 debut when it travels to face preseason conference favorite St. Joseph's on Wednesday. The Bulldogs have been very successful in the non-conference portion of their schedule, upsetting then-No. 1 Indiana among their victories and sitting No. 17 in this week's Top 25 poll. The Hawks have struggled at times heading into the conference campaign, but playing at home against a nationally-ranked foe will certainly bring out the best in Phil Martelli's squad, which comes into the game with a three-game winning streak. Butler has a nine-game winning streak, dating back to November when it fell to Illinois in the final of the Maui Invitational.

Georgia Bulldogs at Florida Gators (-22, 117)

Since losing two close contests to Arizona and Kansas State in an eight-day stretch, Florida has returned to its winning ways with two consecutive victories. The ninth-ranked Gators host a hot Georgia team on Wednesday in the SEC opener for both teams. Senior guard Kenny Boynton ranks 15th in the SEC in scoring and leads the conference in free-throw percentage, fronting a balanced scoring attack. Florida leads the SEC and ranks fourth nationally in scoring defense (52.7), which figures to cause problems for the Bulldogs. Georgia ranks 13th in the conference and 306th nationally in scoring (60.6). The Bulldogs come in riding a season-best four-game winning streak.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at North Carolina State Wolfpack (-10, 133)

N.C. State continued its winning ways into ACC play on Saturday, and the 21st-ranked Wolfpack look to extend their win streak to nine when they host Georgia Tech on Wednesday. N.C. State, the nation’s best shooting team from the field at 53.1 percent, was held under 80 points for the first time in seven games but outlasted Boston College 78-73 to open its conference schedule. The Yellow Jackets’ ACC opener was far less pleasant, Miami pulling away to hand Georgia Tech a 62-49 home loss on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets bring the ACC’s second-best defense into the matchup, allowing just 54.2 points.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini (+3, 137)

For the first month of the season, No. 13 Illinois was one of the biggest surprises in college basketball. However, No. 10 Minnesota can put the Fighting Illini into an early hole in the Big Ten conference race on Wednesday when the Golden Gophers attempt to match their best start in conference play in nearly 40 years. Illinois began its campaign with 12 straight wins – including victories over Butler and Gonzaga – but dropped two of its next three before recapturing its early-season form by pounding No. 14 Ohio State 74-55 on Saturday to remain undefeated at home this season. The Illini will face their third ranked opponent in five games when they meet the Gophers, who have won 10 in a row for the first time in four years. Minnesota overcame a slow start to defeat Northwestern 69-51 on Sunday.

UNLV Runnin' Rebels at New Mexico Lobos (-3, 140)

It’s just the conference opener but there’s plenty at stake when New Mexico hosts No. 19 UNLV in a Mountain West game at The Pit. The Running Rebels have won 11 of their last 12 games while the Lobos posted a head-turning one-point win at No. 8 Cincinnati a week ago to crack the Top 25. New Mexico suffered an ugly loss at Saint Louis last time out where they fell behind by 20 points in the first half. Coach Steve Alford was ejected in the contest, the first time in his 22 year coaching career he has been tossed. The loss also knocked the Lobos out of the Top 25. Both teams expect to challenge preseason favorite San Diego State for the MWC title. Surprising Wyoming is one of four undefeated teams in the country as play begins in a conference that is gaining plenty of respect around the country. In fact, the Mountain West is ranked third in the RPI behind only the Big Ten and the Big East.

Boise State Broncos at Wyoming Cowboys (-4.5, 125)

An early-season showdown in the Mountain West Conference finds Boise State traveling to undefeated Wyoming on Wednesday night. The two teams are a combined 25-2 on the season and considered top contenders for the MWC crown. The Broncos come in winners of six straight, all by at least 10 points. The Cowboys are off to the best start in school history and are ranked nationally (No. 25) for the first time since the 1987-88 campaign. This game should be an interesting contrast, with Boise State averaging a league-best 79.1 points per contest while Wyoming holds opponents to just 54.6 points per game, ranking eighth in the country.

San Diego State Aztecs at Fresno State Bulldogs (+8.5, 120)

San Diego State looks to secure its place as the favorite in the Mountain West when it visits Fresno State in the conference opener for both teams. The Aztecs, ranked 15th in the nation, are off to a fine start with its only losses coming against top 10 teams Syracuse and Arizona and look to win a Mountain West-record sixth consecutive league-opening game. Fresno State will be looking to break the Aztecs' 31-game winning streak against California teams in its Mountain West Conference debut. The Bulldogs, formerly of the WAC, snapped a four-game slide with a win over Division II Sonoma State last game. Prior to that Fresno State, which is averaging just 62 points a game, lost to a trio of Pac-12 teams and Cal-Irvine. The Bulldogs are just 3-3 at home with only one victory coming against a Division I team.

See Spot. See spot Bet: This Week's Best Spot Bet Opportunities

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitability no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown Spot

Despite being on opposite ends of the Western Conference standings, the Minnesota Timberwolves have had the Oklahoma City Thunder’s number in recent meetings. The T-Wolves are just 1-5 SU (straight up) over the past six meetings but are 6-0 ATS (against the spread) in those same contests.

The last time Minnesota stung Oklahoma City, the Thunder were looking ahead to a finals rematch with the Miami Heat on Christmas Day. The Timberwolves shocked the reigning Western champs 99-93 as 2-point dogs on Dec. 20. The T-Wolves are once again in a position to catch the Thunder looking ahead on Wednesday at OKC. Oklahoma City has a high-profile showdown with the Los Angeles Lakers Friday.

Letdown Spot

Even though the Falcons posted a NFC-best 13-3 SU record, they were always priced behind teams like Denver, New England, Houston and San Francisco in the Super Bowl XLVII futures odds. Atlanta’s poor postseason history is to blame for that lack of respect. The Falcons have a reputation for falling on their faces in the opening playoff game.

Last year, they were trounced 24-2 by the New York Giants in the Wild Card Round. In 2011, Green Bay sent Atlanta packing with a 48-21 loss in the Divisional Round. And in 2009, the Falcons were defeated by the Arizona Cardinals in the Wild Card Round. In fact, Atlanta fans have to go all the way back to 2005’s win over the St. Louis Rams in the NFC Wild Card Game for the last time the Falcons got over the opening-game hump. Oddsmakers have set Atlanta as a 1-point home favorite hosting the Seattle Seahawks in its playoff opener Sunday.

Schedule Spot

The Utah Jazz’s upcoming schedule is music to the spot bettor’s ears. Utah is a classic home/away wager, posting a 10-5 ATS mark inside EnergySolutions Arena but lugging a nasty 7-13-1 ATS record away from home. The Jazz have covered just three of their last seven road games, with SU and ATS road wins over Phoenix, Orlando and Brooklyn.

Utah opens a three-game road trip against the Charlotte Bobcats Wednesday, where books will likely tag it as a hefty road fave. Then, the Jazz head to Atlanta Friday and wrap up three games in four nights with a stop in Detroit to play the Pistons Saturday. Utah is averaging 101.5 points at home – 10th in the NBA – but only 95.9 points on the road.

POINTWISE

CBB

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 9 SCORE
(7:00) VA COMMONWEALTH 73 - Dayton 63
(7:00) RICHMOND 78 - Rhode Island 59
(7:00) GEORGE WASHINGTON 66 - St Bonaventure 58
(7:00) FORDHAM 71 - Duquesne 63
(7:00) KANSAS 88 - Iowa State 69 (ESPNU)
(7:00) Syracuse 79 - PROVIDENCE 64
(7:00) ST JOHNS 66 - Rutgers 58
(7:00) VIRGINIA TECH 64 - Boston College 63
(7:00) MICHIGAN 75 - Nebraska 47 (BIG10)
(7:00) Louisville 63 - SETON HALL 58 (ESPN2)
(7:00) William & Mary 62 - TOWSON 61
(7:00) DELAWARE 67 - Hofstra 54
(7:00) ST JOSEPHS 73 - Butler 72
(7:00) CENTRAL FLORIDA 70 - Uab 55
(7:00) MARSHALL 78 - Tulsa 77
(7:00) WRIGHT STATE 57 - Cleveland State 47
(7:00) AKRON 69 - Western Michigan 52
(7:00) MIAMI-OHIO 65- Northern Illinois 58
(7:00) EASTERN MICHIGAN 64 - Ball State 54
(7:00) OHIO U 77 - Buffalo 60
(7:00) KENT STATE 81 - Toledo 69
(7:00) JAMES MADISON 70 - UNC-Wilmington 57
(7:00) INDIANA STATE 74 - Bradley 68
(7:00) FLORIDA 72 - Georgia 47
(7:00) CENTRAL MICHIGAN 66 - Bowling Green 61
(7:30) CHARLOTTE 76 - LaSalle 74

(8:00) MARYLAND 80 - Florida State 67
(8:00) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 81 - Georgia Tech 70
(8:00) OKLAHOMA STATE 92 - Tcu 65
(8:00) Southern Mississippi 60 - RICE 57
(8:00) MEMPHIS 69 - East Carolina 53
(8:00) SOUTH FLORIDA 65 - Villanova 56
(8:00) MISSISSIPPI STATE 68 - South Carolina 67
(8:00) NORTHERN IOWA 64 - Evansville 58
(8:00) WICHITA STATE 81 - Southern Illinois 66
(8:00) ILLINOIS-CHICAGO 63 - Valparaiso 61
(8:00) WISC-GREEN BAY 69 - Loyola-Chicago 68
(8:00) TENNESSEE 72 - Mississippi 63
(8:00) TULANE 61 - Utep 57
(8:00) HOUSTON 65 - Smu 64

(9:00) AIR FORCE 66 - Nevada 60
(9:00) AUBURN 62 - Lsu 56
(9:00) TEXAS A&M 67 - Arkansas 64 (ESPNU)
(9:00) TEXAS 74 - West Virginia 67 (ESPN2)
(9:00) ILLINOIS 78 - Minnesota 73 (BIG10)
(9:00) Virginia 63 - WAKE FOREST 52

(10:00) WYOMING 69 - Boise State 61
(10:00) Cal-Northridge 72 - LONG BEACH STATE 68
(10:00) NEW MEXICO 70 - Unlv 59 (CBSC)
(10:00) STANFORD 68 - Washington State 64

(11:00) CALIFORNIA 71 - Washington 61 (ESPN2)
(11:00) CAL-IRVINE 74 - Hawaii 63 (ESPNU)
(11:30) San Diego State 67 - FRESNO STATE 62

BEST BETS: GEORGE WASHINGTON, BOSTON COLLEGE, KENT STATE,
TULSA, JS MADISON, TULANE, CAL-NORTHRIDGE, WASHINGTON STATE

NBA

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 9 SCORE
(7:05) CLEVELAND CAVS 102 - Atlanta Hawks 97
(7:05) Philadelphia 76ers 103 - TORONTO RAPTORS 93
(7:05) CHARLOTTE BOBCATS 98 - Utah Jazz 90
(7:35) Phoenix Suns 99 - BOSTON CELTICS 97

(8:05) SAN ANTONIO 108 - LA Lakers 103 (ESPN)
(8:05) OKLAHOMA CITY 110 - Minnesota T'Wolves 107
(8:05) NEW ORLEANS HORNETS 95 - Houston 93
(8:05) Milwaukee Bucks 96 - CHICAGO BULLS 93
(9:05) DENVER NUGGETS 109 - Orlando Magic 90

(10:35) Memphis Grizzlies 103 - GOLDEN STATE 102
(10:35) LA CLIPPERS 110 - Dallas Mavericks 97 (ESPN)

BEST BETS: PHOENIX, MINNESOTA (4), DENVER (1), CLIPPERS

WINNING POINTS

CBB

Wednesday, January 9
VCU* over Dayton by 14
Richmond* over Rhode Island by 8
St. Bonaventure over George Washington* by 2
Fordham* over Duquesne by 1
Kansas* over Iowa State by 16
Syracuse over Providence* by 12
St. John’s* over Rutgers by 4
Virginia Tech* over Boston College by 2

**PREFERRED
Michigan* over Nebraska by 30
Fake basketball-team visitor vs. NCAA Tournament squad. Nebraska doesn’t do anything better than Michigan can. Michigan won on Nebraska’s floor last season by 16
points.
MICHIGAN, 74-44.

Louisville over Seton Hall* by 11
Towson* over William & Mary by 2
Delaware* over Hofstra by 13
St. Joseph’s* over Butler by 1
Central Florida* over UAB by 6
Marshall* over Tulsa by 1

**PREFERRED
Wright State* over Cleveland State by 15
If there is anything Cleveland State detests, it’s a half-court game on the road where
they are forced to defend for most of the 35-second shot clock against a team that also plays tough, half-court defense and isn’t outsized by them.
WRIGHT STATE, 61-46.

Akron* over Western Michigan by 15
Miami-OH* over Northern Illinois by 9
Eastern Michigan* over Ball State by 5
Ohio* over Buffalo by 14

Kent State* over Toledo by 7
James Madison* over NC-Wilmington by 9
Indiana State* over Bradley by 9
Florida* over Georgia by 25
Bowling Green over Central Michigan* by 2
Charlotte* over LaSalle by 1
Maryland* over Florida State by 5

North Carolina State* over Georgia Tech by 17
G-Tech’s defensive prowess can only hold out for so long on the road against an opponent with as many good scorers on it as the Wolfpack.
NC STATE, 79-62.

Oklahoma State* over TCU by 20
Southern Miss* over Rice by 9
Memphis* over East Carolina 14
South Florida* over Villanova by 1
Mississippi State* over South Carolina by 1
Northern Iowa* over Evansville by 11
Wichita State* over Southern Illinois by 16
Illinois-Chicago* over Valparaiso by 1
Wisconsin-GB* over Loyola-Chicago by 2
Tennessee* over Mississippi by 3
UTEP over Tulane* by 1
Houston* over SMU by 2

Air Force* over Nevada by 10
Senior-laden home team that plays decent defense and shoots for high percentages
inside and out, against a blah visitor that has been overrated since last season and is
seeking a reliable third scoring option behind the usual suspects Story and Burton.
AIR FORCE, 69-58.

Auburn* over LSU by 1
Arkansas over Texas A&M* by 1
Texas* over West Virginia by 6
Minnesota over Illinois* by 1
Virginia* over Wake Forest by 4
Wyoming* over Boise State by 6
Long Beach State* over CS Northridge by 4
New Mexico* over UNLV by 6
Stanford* over Washington State by 6
California* over Washington by 7
Cal-Irvine* over Hawaii by 5
San Diego State* over Fresno State by 7

NBA

Wednesday, January 9
Atlanta over *Cleveland by 8
Atlanta has defeated Cleveland in eight its last nine games, including winning, 102-
94, on Dec. 28 in Cleveland. The Cavaliers were missing center Anderson Varejao
(check status) in that contest. Cleveland was 4-9 ATS during its past 13 Eastern
Conference matchups through December.
ATLANTA 100-92.

**PREFERRED
*Toronto over Philadelphia by 10
Despite injuries to key players, the Raptors finished December on a 7-2 covering run.
The Raptors are rested, too, having last played on Sunday while the 76ers are playing
for the fourth time in five days and second in two nights.
TORONTO 104-94.

Utah over *Charlotte by 3
It’s difficult to lay too many points with Utah on the road. The Jazz were 6-13-1 ATS
in their last 20 away matchups through Dec. 29.
UTAH 109-106.

*Boston over Phoenix by 10
Phoenix was 1-7 ATS the past eight times when playing with no rest.
BOSTON 103-93.

*San Antonio over Los Angeles Lakers by 7
The Lakers are getting better with Dwight Howard more comfortable with his new
teammates, but the Spurs had covered 61 percent of their first 14 home contests with
a SU mark of 12-2. The Lakers had a losing spread mark in the second of back-to-back
games.
SAN ANTONIO 108-101.

**PREFERRED
*Oklahoma City over Minnesota by 17
Despite a combined 63 points from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, the
Timberwolves snapped Oklahoma City’s 12-game win streak, 99-93, at home on Dec.
20. The Thunder should be primed for revenge. This also is the Thunder’s lone home
contest during a six-game span. Minnesota has improved its defense, but ranked 25th
in offensive field goal percentage.
OKLAHOMA CITY 107-90.

**PREFERRED
*New Orleans over Houston by 11
A home game last night against the Lakers, puts the Rockets in a potential letdown situation against the lowly Hornets. This is the Hornets’ second look at the Rockets in a
week. The Rockets barely held off New Orleans at home in the first meeting back in
November.
NEW ORLEANS 103-92.

*Chicago over Milwaukee by 5
Since former Bulls coach Scott Skiles took over, the Bucks are just 5-13 SU against
Chicago, including losses in nine of their last 10.
CHICAGO 95-90.

*Denver over Orlando by 12
The Nuggets have been idle since Sunday and went into January having covered 80
percent of their home matchups.
DENVER 109-97.

*Golden State over Memphis by 4
The Grizzlies have won the past seven meetings in the series, but are playing their third
road game in four days and going against one of the most improved teams in the
league.
GOLDEN STATE 104-100.

*Los Angeles Clippers over Dallas by 9
The Clippers were 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when meeting a foe with a losing record
through Dec. 30.
LA CLIPPERS 105-96.

Gold Sheet Key Releases (CBB)

William and Mary by 9 over Towson
Tulsa by 1 over Marshall
Hawaii by 5 over UCI

Gold Sheet Key Releases (NBA)
Atlanta by 12 over Cleveland
Utah by 16 over Charlotte
Under in Memphis at Golden State

Gold Medal Club Selections 09/01/2013
CBB:
#808 Texas A&M -1.5
#735 Rutgers +3.5
#771 Bowling Green +2
# 810 Texas -5.5 (25*)

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/09/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 1740-523 (.769)
ATS: 702-723 (.493)
ATS Vary Units: 2440-2572 (.487)
Over/Under: 191-190 (.501)
Over/Under Vary Units: 239-265 (.474)

America East Conference
HARTFORD 70, Maine 61
New Hampshire 65, UMBC 61
Stony Brook 69, BINGHAMTON 50

Atlantic 10 Conference
Butler 66, SAINT JOSEPH'S 65
CHARLOTTE 70, La Salle 69
FORDHAM 75, Duquesne 74
RICHMOND 70, Rhode Island 64
St. Bonaventure vs. GEORGE WASHINGTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
VCU 76, Dayton 63

Atlantic Coast Conference
MARYLAND 73, Florida State 69
NC STATE 74, Georgia Tech 58
Virginia 63, WAKE FOREST 56
VIRGINIA TECH 74, Boston College 66

Big 12 Conference
KANSAS 83, Iowa State 65
OKLAHOMA STATE 72, Tcu 52
TEXAS 71, West Virginia 61

Big East Conference
Louisville 75, SETON HALL 61
SOUTH FLORIDA 64, Villanova 60
ST. JOHN'S 70, Rutgers 68
Syracuse 75, PROVIDENCE 60

Big South Conference
Campbell 86, LONGWOOD 75
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN 74, Winthrop 61
COASTAL CAROLINA 74, Presbyterian 62
RADFORD 71, High Point 70
UNC Asheville 72, GARDNER-WEBB 67
VMI 84, Liberty 75

Big Ten Conference
MICHIGAN 76, Nebraska 49
Minnesota 70, ILLINOIS 65

Big West Conference
LONG BEACH STATE 85, Cal State Northridge 72
UC IRVINE 77, Hawai'i 72

Colonial Athletic Association
DELAWARE 76, Hofstra 61
JAMES MADISON 69, UNC Wilmington 62
TOWSON 62, William & Mary 61

Conference USA
HOUSTON 67, Smu 62
MARSHALL 67, Tulsa 66
MEMPHIS 82, East Carolina 64
Southern Miss 70, RICE 60
TULANE 60, Utep 56
UCF 73, Uab 67

Horizon League
GREEN BAY 61, Loyola (Chicago) 60
Valparaiso 60, UIC 56
WRIGHT STATE 60, Cleveland State 55

Mid-American Conference
AKRON 77, Western Michigan 64
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 65, Bowling Green 62
EASTERN MICHIGAN 59, Ball State 55
KENT STATE 74, Toledo 64
MIAMI (OHIO) 67, Northern Illinois 54
OHIO 74, Buffalo 62

Missouri Valley Conference
INDIANA STATE 69, Bradley 58
NORTHERN IOWA 72, Evansville 65
WICHITA STATE 77, Southern Illinois 51

Mountain West Conference
Nevada 70, AIR FORCE 69
NEW MEXICO 71, Unlv 65
San Diego State 67, FRESNO STATE 58
WYOMING 65, Boise State 59

Ohio Valley Conference
Morehead State 75, AUSTIN PEAY 71
MURRAY STATE 76, Eastern Kentucky 60

Pacific-10 Conference
CALIFORNIA 71, Washington 70
STANFORD 65, Washington State 58

Southeastern Conference
Arkansas 69, TEXAS A&M 67
FLORIDA 70, Georgia 49
Lsu 68, AUBURN 66
South Carolina vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
TENNESSEE 68, Ole Miss 67

Non-Conference
Cal State Fullerton 81, CSU BAKERSFIELD 77
KANSAS CITY 70, Utah Valley 67

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/09/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 335-163 (.673)
ATS: 250-256 (.494)
ATS Vary Units: 765-699 (.523)
Over/Under: 260-246 (.514)
Over/Under Vary Units: 427-380 (.529)

TORONTO 94, Philadelphia 92
Utah 104, CHARLOTTE 95
Atlanta 99, CLEVELAND 93
BOSTON 100, Phoenix 91
CHICAGO 97, Milwaukee 89
Houston 102, NEW ORLEANS 98
SAN ANTONIO 111, L.A. Lakers 99
OKLAHOMA CITY 109, Minnesota 96
DENVER 107, Orlando 93
L.A. CLIPPERS 106, Dallas 92
Memphis vs. GOLDEN STATE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Jazz won three of last four games (3-3 AF).
-- Celtics won/covered last three games (6-3 last nine HF).
-- Spurs won eight of last ten games (9-5-1 HF).
-- Thunder won five of last seven games (8-5-1 last 14 HF).
-- Rockets won/covered 10 of last 12 games (1-1 AF). New Orleans won four of last seven games (2-9-1 last 12 HU).
-- Bulls won last three games, allowing 91.7 ppg (3-12 HF).
-- Nuggets won five of last seven games (6-1 last seven HF).
-- Grizzlies won three of last four games (3-3 AU). Golden State won four of last five games (8-2 HF).
-- Clippers won 19 of last 21 games (9-1 last ten HF).

Cold Teams
-- Hawks lost four of last five games (3-5 AF). Cavaliers lost five of last six games (3-8 HU).
-- 76ers lost six of last seven games (3-9 last last AU). Toronto last last two games, by 9-12 points (4-3 HF).
-- Bobcats lost 19 of last 21 games, covered three of four (6-7 HU).
-- Suns lost nine of last ten games (5-8 AU).
-- Lakers lost five of last six games (2-4 AU).
-- Minnesota lost four of last five games (6-2 AU of 5+ points).
-- Bucks lost four of last five games (7-4 AU).
-- Orlando lost last nine games, covered three of last four (8-1 last nine AU).
-- Mavericks lost nine of last ten games (4-1 AU 10+ points).


Totals
-- Four of last five Cleveland home games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Toronto home games stayed under total.
-- Over is 9-2-1 in Charlotte's last twelve home games.
-- 11 of last 15 Phoenix games stayed under the total.
-- Six of Spurs' last eight home games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Thunder games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Houston road games went over the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Milwaukee road games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Orlando road games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Golden State home games went over total.
-- 11 of last 16 Dallas games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Hawks are 7-2 vs spread (3-0 on road) if they played night before.
-- 76ers are 2-8 vs spread (2-6 on road) if they played night before.
-- Suns are 1-6 vs spread (1-3 on road) if they played night before.
-- Lakers are 2-3-1 vs spread (all on road) if they played night before.
-- Minnesota is 4-4 vs spread (3-4 on road) if it played night before.
-- Houston is 3-5 vs spread (2-2 on road) if it played night before.
-- Bucks are 1-7 vs spread (1-2 on road) if they played night before.

CBB

-- VCU forces turnovers on 30.7% of possessions, #1 in country; they won last nine games, allowing 55.7 ppg in last sis- this is their first game in A-16. Rams are 4-3 vs top 100 teams, winning by 13-10-19-4 points. Dayton is 10-4; its last three losses are by combined total of four points. Flyers are 1-1 on road, losing by 2 at USC, winning by 5 at Alabama.
-- Syracuse won its last five games vs Providence, winning 87-73/99-85 in last two visits here; Orange won by 9 at Arkansas, 11 at So. Florida in its two road games. 12 of its 14 wins are by 11+ points. Providence uses seven guys; they lost last four games, losing first two conference tilts by 18-10 points. Big East underdogs are 7-5 vs spread, 1-1 at home.
-- Home side won last four Rutgers-St John's games; Scarlet Knights lost last two visits here, 58-56/70-59. Rutgers upset Pitt in last game; they're 2-2 on road, losing by 13 at OleMiss, 25 at Syracuse. Red Storm is 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with only win as 13-point underdog at Cincinnati in last game. Big East home favorites of 5 or less points are 0-4 vs spread.
-- Louisville won last three games vs Seton Hall by 6-9-19 points; Hall coach Willard is former Pitino assistant. Cardinals won last eight games; they force turnovers 29.6% of time (#2 in country). Hall is 12-3, losing by 11 in OT vs Washington, 5 at LSU (fell apart vs Tigers' press), 21 at Notre Dame- they turn ball over 22.8% of time, bad sign here.

-- Butler's first A-16 game is at St Joe's team that won last three games after 5-4 start; Hawks are 3-3 vs top 100 teams, with best win over #20 Notre Dame. Butler won last eight games, allowing 50 ppg in last three; Bulldogs are 2-1 on road, losing at Xavier, winning at Northwestern by 9,at Vandy by 19. Butler's last loss was to Illinois on Maui Nov 21.
-- Home side won 11 of last 12 Florida State-Maryland games; State lost last six visits here, by 16-9-10-18-2-11 points. Seminoles split first two true road games, losing by 6 at Auburn, winning by 5 at Clemson- they turn ball over 22.6% of time. Terps won last 13 games, with only wins in top 100 by 20 over #99 Northwestern, by 7 over #91 Stony Brook.
-- Georgia Tech is 3-2 in last five games with NC State; Jackets lost by 13 at Illinois in only true road this season- they're 2-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 11-13-13 points. Wolfpack won its last eight games; they are 2-2 vs top 100 teams, winning by 9 over Stanford, 4 over UConn- they are shooting 57.5% inside arc (#2 in country), 39.2% outside it (#20).
-- Minnesota-Illinois split last six meetings with both games going to OT last year; Gophers lost three of their last four visits here, losing by 9-11-9 points. Minnesota grabs 49.7% of its own missed shots (#1 in nation); they've won last 11 games, last seven by 10+ points- they're 2-0 in true road games, winning by 9 at Florida State, 14 at USC. Illinois split last four games but walloped Ohio State by 19 in last game. .
-- Virginia beat North Carolina at home Sunday nite, now has trap game on road; Wake Forest won five of last six games with Virginia; Cavaliers lost last seven visits here, by 5-12-16-6-22-13-4 points. Deacons are 0-5 vs top 100 teams, losing by 6-26-2-4-18 points, though they did beat #109 Xavier last home game. Wake is #3 in country at getting to the foul line, but shoot just 67.6% there, still scoring 25% of points on FTs

-- Wyoming is one of four unbeaten teams left in country; they're 3-0 vs top 100 teams, winning by 7-10-14 points. Cowboys beat Boise twice LY, in Broncos' first year in MWC, by 11-10 points. Boise is 3-2 on the road, losing by 4 at Michigan State, 21 at Utah- they also are only team to beat Creighton (83-70). Boise forces turnovers 22.7% of time.
-- UNLV is 8-5 in last 13 games vs New Mexico, but lost two of three to Lobos LY; Rebels are 2-3 in last five visits to Pit, losing by 20-4-14, as two of the five went OT. UNLV is 3-1 on road, winning tight games at Cal/UTEP, losing at North Carolina by 6. New Mexico lost two of three games since 12-0 start, but last win ended Cincinnati's home win streak.
-- Washington won four of last six games with Cal; they've split last four visits here, winning last one by 21. Huskies are playing #177 pace so far this year, after being top 30 team last four years, so they've slowed pace a lot. Cal is 3-5 in last eight games, 2-3 in last five at home- they're 7-0 vs teams outside top 100. Washington is ranked #103 right now.
-- Murray State won last seven games with Eastern Kentucky, winning last four here by 14-10-2-5 points. Racers are only using seven guys, so guarding vs Princeton offense could be problem, as far as guys tiring out late in game. EKU split last six games after 9-0 start; they're 0-2 against teams in top 180, losing at Illinois by 13, at West Virginia by 7.

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Baylor (-10) Tuesday.

Wednesday it’s Virginia Commonwealth. The surplus is 190 sirignanos.

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