Divisional Round - Power Write Ups

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The divisional round is dubbed the best weekend of football the year has to offer. Although we have a couple double digit lined games on the board I think we are in for a good weekend of quality football.

Ravens +10 (-120) - Bovada

Most books have this game at 9 or 9.5, but the juice is worth the squeeze in this case getting to a key number.

I remember back in week 15 when the Broncos visited Baltimore the Ravens were a very trendy pick that week despite the fact that they were very beat up on defense, it was Jim Caldwell's first week calling plays, and the Broncos were the hottest team in the league.

The Ravens started out awful that game having there first 5 possessions end in 3 n outs. Yet with 31 seconds left in the first half the Ravens found themselves down only 10-0 and having a first and goal from the 4 with 3 time outs to burn. From there Flacco throws a lazy out to Boldin, a denver db jumps it and 100 yards later we have a 17-0 score instead of what could have easily been 10-7. Tough to come out for the second half after that swing yet the Ravens came out and matched Denver 17-17 in the second half. I am not completely naive and realize that Peyton and co. left off the peddle a bit but none the less 17-17 was the second half score.

A quick look at that game shows that Baltimore's first 5 possessions ended in 3 and out, yet from that point on they only had 2 possessions the rest of the game that suffered that fate. This tells me that Caldwell was beginning to find his stroke as a play caller and the overall execution improved.

Ray Rice was virtually invisible in this game. Having only 12 carries for 38 and only 3 yards receiving he had no impact on this game. As Caldwell has been getting more comfortable with the offense he has found creative ways to get rice into favorable match ups in space.

Giving up 34 on the surface seems like a pretty poor defensive outing, however taking a closer look there is reason for hope if you are backing the Ravens this week. First, we can take 7 points off automatically as those came from the hand of Joe Cool. Another 7 came from a short field (35yds) that was set up via turnover. Only 3 of the 6 scoring drives were 50+ yards. I know it is a tall order but if Mr. Elite Joe Flacco doesn't give Denver the short field and actually makes them go 80 it will help out a great deal. Some more good news is that although the raven defense was short-handed they still held manning to a season low in yards and completions.

I think this Raven defense is getting healthy at the right time. Throw in the fact the whole emotional factor that Ray Lewis is bringing to the table and I see this defense being up to task this Saturday.

At the end of the day Peyton is as good as it gets and will put some scoring drives together, but as mentioned above if Flacco can manage the game, hit a few deep shots, and most importantly not turn the ball over this will be a close ball game. I dont care how hot Denver is 10 points is way to many points to give to a team that has been here before and is consistently a tough out in the playoffs.
 
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Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (-115) sportsbook

I have to say the Atlanta Falcons were the least mentioned 13-3 team that I can recall in recent memory. With them its been the same script over the years. Play great at home play average on the road and get beat in first playoff game. In the playoffs a loss is a loss but lets look at the teams who took ATL out of the postseason.
2008 - Matt Ryans rookie year @ Arizona - Arizona went on to lose the super bowl that year in the final seconds
2010 - Divisional rd vs a smoking hot GB team that went on to win the Super Bowl
2011 - Wild Card @ NYG Eli and the boys had been in playoff mode for weeks and rode that wave all the way the winning the whole damn thing.

Only one of those 3 losses came at home. Although they got beat around pretty good in that spot I think everyone can agree that at that point Aaron Rodgers was playing at a whole other level (31-36 - 366 / 3Td)

The good news. They aren't playing Aaron Rodgers this week. Instead a rookie QB leading a below .500 road team back to the east coast for their second consecutive week. No disrespect to Russel Wilson. I have been on this guy since his days at NC St. At no point in his career has the stage ever looked to big for him. I fully expect Russel Wilson to play a decent game, but this week decent is not going to cut it.

When you think Falcons you think Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony G, and while they are all important ingredients to this down south cookin' the main course for this team has been the defense--especially at home. Here are the list of the teams they have played at home this year and the points they allowed.
Denver - 21
Carolina -28
Oakland -20
Dallas - 13
Arizona - 19
New Orleans - 13
Giants - 0
Tampa Bay - 22

While holding down Romo, Brees and Manning boys; one concerning item jumps out at me. Two of 3 biggest point outputs that their defense allowed this year came from the hands of Cam Newton (28 / 30) While Seattle's offense is not identical to the Panthers there are certainly some similarities, and raises some concern that they were not better prepared to stop it the second time around. A silver lining in this is that off there bye week this year they went into philly (another offense similar to seattle) and they held them to 17 points and less than 300 yards of offense. I believe the additional week to prepare for Seattle will yield similar results.

Seattle has an excellent defense -- at home. On the road they are still a good defense but there is definitely a drop off. A quick look at their road schedule
@ Arizona - 20
@ STL -19
@ Carolina -12
@ SF - 13
@ DET -28
@ Miami - 24
@ Chicago - 17
@ Wash - 14

I just played this lil game and while I would put my wits against anyone when it comes to naming starting personnel it was a bit challenging --- name the #2 WR in each of the above offenses.

Which brings me to my next point. I have heard all year how big, fast, and talented this Seattle secondary is. While all those descriptives may be true I will say that they have not faced one "potent" passing attack on the road all year. Detroit would be the closest thing that I could consider potent, but everyone knows that is just a one man band and that band hung up 28 and 330 passing on this big, fast, talented secondary. I don't mean to discredit this defense because at home when the 12th man gets rolling and loud this defense is as good as anyone but on the road they have proved to be beatable against some not so impressive offenses (See: Tannehill, Ryan / Bess, Davone / Clay, Charles)

The Falcons have been hearing for the past 365 days how the regular season doesn't matter for this team anymore. I don't see how you can ever give motivation factor edge to anyone in a playoff game but if there was ever a spot this would be it.
 

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if Flacco can manage the game, hit a few deep shots, and most importantly not turn the ball over this will be a close ball game.

That's a lot of if's
Still good insight though.
Also, you might wanna note, when playing Peyton, sometimes giving him a short field helps. That way he can't eat the clock up as much and give you a chance to play catch up.
 

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I agree with your Atlanta pick, especially with Seattle losing their #1 pass rusher Clemons and their FG kicker.

Baltimore is another issue all together. Every person who is wagering on Baltimore is pinning their hopes on Flacco having a big day, something he normally fails to do on the road. Baltimore is going to be emotionally drained after last week,s final home game for Ray Lewis. They are also playing in a very high altitude with only 6 days rest. Baltimore will get gassed in the 2nd half. A 1st half play would be a lot better if you like the Ravens here.
 
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I will occasionally play props when value presents itself.

Looking over the props for the Ravens / Broncos game on Bovada I found a laugher.

Will Ray Rice fumble in the game? (fumble or fumble lost)
yes - +150
no - -200

Is this a misprint? I am well aware that he put the ball on carpet twice last week. However, I am also well aware that he is not a player who has a fumbling problem. To be exact over his career (reg season) he only puts the ball on the ground 1 every 218 touches. In the playoffs for whatever reason his touch per fumble ratio drops down to 1:29. Putting the ball down twice last week certainly does not help this number. Although with that said ball security will be paramount for RR this week thus getting -200 on this wager is an absolute steal.

It would be foolish to go broke on something that is this flukey but with that said this is one of the best -200 wagers I have ever laid eyes on.
 

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