Denver Broncos' Super Bowl To Lose?

[h=1]Denver Broncos' Super Bowl to lose[/h][h=3]Through lens of QBR, Von Miller, Peyton Manning stand alone on top[/h]
By Peter Keating | ESPN the Magazine
ESPN INSIDER

As you may have heard by now, this has been quite a year for quarterback play. And as we have admired, analyzed and argued about Peyton Manning's comeback, Colin Kaepernick's takeover and Griffin-Luck-Wilson's rookie exploits -- and as QBs threw for 17,788 yards in the regular season, the most ever -- there hasn't been much talk among fans or media types about defense. Admit it: When you think about the Broncos possibly meeting the Patriots in the AFC title game, do you envision Manning versus Tom Brady, or Chris Harris versus Devin McCourty?
But now that the calendar has turned, our attention should, too, to the other side of the ball, because the quality of a defense can have a huge impact on an opposing quarterback's play in specific matchups. Indeed, looking at QBR reveals there are three reasons D is critical right now. For one thing, while there's clearly a wide range in performance among QBs who are still alive in the playoffs, from Manning (Opponent-Adjusted Total QBR: 82.5) to Joe Flacco (46.8), the spread among defenses is just as wide. New England's defense has a QBR Allowed of 64.9, while Denver's opponents have posted a QBR of just 26.6. That's a huge variation.
For another, good defenses seem to have the ability to clamp down on opposing QBs at this time of year. In studying playoff games from last season and the first round this year, I have found that quarterbacks have slightly lower QBR scores than I would have predicted, given their ratings for the regular season and the opponents they faced. It's a tiny sample size, but just by way of example, last weekend, Robert Griffin III (who of course was hurt), Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson all performed worse than we would have guessed from their numbers and their opposition, and only Flacco exceeded expectations. This is a subject for further research, but Dean Oliver, ESPN's Director of Production Analytics, has suggested there's reason to prefer smart defenses over quarterbacks in winner-take-all scenarios: it's easier for teams to scout a QB than an entire defensive scheme.
Finally, it's time to look across the line of scrimmage because something amazing is happening in Denver, and Manning, as great as he is, shouldn't suck the oxygen out of the mile-high air all by himself. Look again at that QBR allowed by the Broncos: 26.6. That means Denver made its average opponent, all season long, play like Brandon Weeden.

The Broncos gave up just 200 passing yards per game this season, the third-lowest average in the NFL. And they specialize in making the kind of plays that traditional passer rating doesn't count: Denver tied for the league lead with 52 sacks, and limited opponents to converting just 30.6 percent of third downs, by far the lowest rate in the NFL. With Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil both ranking among the top five players in the league in Sack Damage (explained in more detail here), and with Harris and Tony Carter playing even better than Champ Bailey, Denver's defense is playing at a special level.
With all that in mind, let's take a look at the divisional matchups, focusing on the impact defenses could have on QB play. Thanks to ESPN Stats & Information for data and research assistance.

Keys: When Ray Lewis was out, Baltimore tackled worse and their blitzing collapsed; the Ravens gave up 5 TDs and got no INTs when sending five or more pass-rushers in their last 10 regular-season games, versus zero TDs and 4 INTs in their first five. Lewis will help Baltimore's pass rush and limit the Broncos' yards after contact. But even he can't do it all. With him on the field, the Ravens gave up 7.7 yards per pass attempt, compared with just 6.6 when he wasn't playing. And over his last 10 games, Manning has completed more than 70 percent of his passes, with a QBR of 93.4, against four or fewer rushers. He's likely to pick the Ravens apart whenever he's not blitzed.
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• The Ravens defense benefited hugely last week when Colts receivers dropped seven passes, including four on third or fourth down; both totals were the most by any team in the last three years. But the Broncos dropped just 6.1 percent of catchable balls this season, the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL.

• When sending five or more pass-rushers, Denver has generated 20 sacks and limited opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of just 16.1 (lowest in the league) -- and of 1.5 in the fourth quarter.

• After Jim Caldwell took over as Baltimore's offensive coordinator, Flacco started throwing downfield less often, but improved his efficiency -- until last week, when he chucked bombs to Anquan Boldin with great success against Indianapolis. Will the Ravens return to a more conservative game plan? Well, Denver allowed completions totaling just 2,145 yards to wide receivers in the regular season, but gave up a whopping 946 yards and 11 TDs (most in the league) to opposing TEs. Get Ed Dickson on the field!
Verdict: Huge edge to Denver.

Keys: Defenses have been trying to ratchet up the pressure on Rodgers since OT Bryan Bulaga went down seven weeks ago; Rodgers has been sacked or under duress on 28.1 percent of dropbacks over that span, up from 20.1 percent before Bulaga's injury. But Rodgers has posted a QBR of 81.7 when under duress this season, by far the best mark in the NFL (the league average is just 24.6).

• After attempting just four screen passes in two regular-season games against the Minnesota, Rodgers was 6-6 for 54 yards and a TDs on screens last weekend. He and the Packers will take whatever defenses give them -- previously, they used three or more WRs on 80 percent of passing plays this season against the Vikings, who were awful (76.5 QBR Allowed) facing three or more wideouts.

• It's not clear yet whether Justin Smith will play, and his impact is huge: The 49ers have allowed 5.1 yards per play without him in the lineup versus 4.5 with him. Aldon Smith has 19.5 sacks in 773 plays with Justin Smith on the field this season, zero sacks in 182 plays without him.

• The 49ers get almost nothing from blitzing: They sent extra pass-rushers on 104 pass plays (versus a league average of 162.5), yielding 7 TDs while generating just 3 INTs and a measly 2 sacks for 15 yards.

• Charles Woodson will play for the Packers this week for the first time since Week 9, and when he's on the field, Green Bay blitzes more often and generates more sacks. But like many mobile quarterbacks, Kaepernick will bust secondary blitzes by keeping plays alive: his QBR was 86.5 against four or fewer pass-rushers and just 59.6 versus five or more, but 65.3 against rushes that included a defensive back.
Verdict: Kaepernick and the Packers' defense both rate considerably better than you might think; overall, a slight edge to Rodgers, who rates well on every scale advanced metrics can chart.

Keys: Which will triumph, the shotgun or the blitz? Since Week 13, Seattle has run a majority of plays out of the shotgun (up from one-third in their first 11 games). Wilson completed 63.7 percent of shotgun passes for 7.9 yard per attempt (fourth-best in the NFL), 15 TDs and just 3 INTs in the regular season, and the formation liberated the Seahawks' running game, too: They gained 7.4 yards per carry on shotgun rushes over their last five games. But Wilson's protection isn't holding up amid all the shotguns and options: He's been sacked 11 times and has fumbled twice in the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the Falcons run a high-risk/high-reward defense when they don't blitz. Atlanta had 14 interceptions, second-most in the NFL, when sending four or fewer pass-rushers during the regular season, but surrendered 7.7 YPA, third-most in the league. So watch what happens when the Falcons pressure Wilson.

The Falcons were one of only four teams with more INTs grabbed (6) than TDs allowed (4) on blitzes. And especially watch when Atlanta sends a DB after Wilson. Against secondary blitzes this year, Wilson threw for just 4.8 YPA, worst among all starting QBs, with a QBR of 17.9.

• The Seahawks have to watch out for the deep bomb, which the Falcons try a couple of times a game. Ryan ranks second in the NFL with 17.6 yards per attempt on throws of more than 30 yards, averaging an eye-popping 52.7 yards per completion on those passes.

• Richard Sherman has defended or intercepted 22 passes this season, the most in the league, and is one of four players over the past 10 years to record 8 INTs and 3 forced fumbles in a season.

• Sherman is also one of three starting Seattle DBs, along with Brandon Browner and Kam Chanceelor, who are 6-foot-3 or taller -- out of six across the entire league. For what it's worth, two more, Kerry Rhodes and Adrian Wilson, are in Arizona, and Ryan threw five interceptions against the Cardinals in a 23-19 win in November.
Verdict: The numbers call this a dead heat, but remember: Both of these teams enjoy big home-field advantage, and this game is in Atlanta. For the season, Wilson is 16 of 30 (53.3 percent) with 8 TDs on throws of more than 20 yards at home -- but just 8 of 28 (28.6 percent) with no touchdowns on the road. Edge to the Falcons.
Keys: Playing in the weak AFC East has allowed Bill Belichick the luxury of retooling the Patriots in midseason over the past few years, and in 2012, New England's defense took an entirely new shape after the team acquired Aqib Talib. In the first 10 weeks of the season, the Pats sent extra pass-rushers on just 15 percent of plays, the lowest rate in football, and allowed opponents to complete 74 percent of their passes, with no interceptions, on blitzes. Since then, New England has rushed five or more passes on 35 percent of plays, and enemy QBs have thrown 5 INTs, posting a QBR of just 18.2 when blitzed.

• Schaub has no TDs and 3 INTs in his last three games, the first time he hasn't passed for a touchdown in three straight games since 2007. But he's still hard to blitz: against the Bengals last weekend, he was 6-of-6 for 74 yards against five or more pass-rushers.

• Add up sacks, passes defended, batted balls and interceptions, and you get a stat that ESPN Stats & Info calls "disrupted dropbacks." And J.J. Watt had 36.5 DDs in the regular season -- nearly 60 percent more than Sherman, who ranked second with 23.

• If you watched Glover Quin blanket Jermaine Gresham last weekend, you know that even the Patriots might have their hands full targeting tight ends against the Texans. Houston allowed opponents to complete just 58 percent of passes to TEs, the second-lowest rate in the league, for only 6.3 YPA, the third-fewest.

• The Patriots beat the Texans, 42-14, in Week 14 -- but teams who lost to an opponent by 28 or more points in the regular season have gone 11-11 against those same opponents in the playoffs. Regression to the mean is savage.
Verdict: The overall data indicates this game should be much closer than expected, seeing the matchups as essentially even. But Houston's QBR Allowed has fallen off since the start of the season, while New England's has improved. Based on their current levels of play, edge to the Patriots.
It's worth noting, though, that there is a recipe for beating the Pats that the Texans are primed to follow. The 2009 Ravens and 2010 Jets were very aggressive teams who watched Brady destroy their blitzes in the regular season, but who then changed strategy in the playoffs. Both clubs cut back dramatically on sending extra pass-rushers, successfully confusing Brady and preventing him from throwing a touchdown. (And the 2011 Giants had a somewhat similar strategy in the Super Bowl, allowing Brady to dink and dunk, though they hit him, too.) This season, the Texans were the most aggressive defense in the NFL, sending five or more pass-rushers on 47 percent of plays. Brady laughed off Houston's pressure in Week 14, going 13-of-14 for 148 yards and 3 TDs. But if he's set up to expect more of the same and the Texans have it in them to deliver something different … maybe we'll have a ballgame.
[h=3]The Bottom Line[/h]Denver stands apart. Peyton Manning has been sacked or put under duress on 14 percent of dropbacks, the lowest rate for any QB in the NFL, while the Broncos have sacked or put opposing QBs under duress on 28 percent of dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL. And Denver's QBR Allowed is nearly as far below average as Manning's QBR is above. When it comes to quarterback play, the Broncos will beat you one way or the other.

A guy named Tom Brady might have something to say about that

Green Bay, SF and Sea all better than any of the 4 remaining AFC teams

NickPappagiorgio said:

Green Bay, SF and Sea all better than any of the 4 remaining AFC teams

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A guy named Tom Brady might have something to say about that.

JustinCruise said:

A guy named Tom Brady might have something to say about that.

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Well, Tom Brady might have something to say about himself, Tom Brady.

Tom Brady has thrown 17 interceptions in his last 12 playoff games

donkeybucks said:

Well, Tom Brady might have something to say about himself, Tom Brady.

Tom Brady has thrown 17 interceptions in his last 12 playoff games

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the man is 16-6, with at least three losses coming in the final minute including his two SB losses

as for the OP, I respect Manning a lot, he's one of the best of all time. But he's been here before, he's been a prohibitive favorite before, he's been the 1 seed before, and he just doesn't have a great playoff record for whatever the reason

donkeybucks said:

Well, Tom Brady might have something to say about himself, Tom Brady.

Tom Brady has thrown 17 interceptions in his last 12 playoff games

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You want to talk about peytons playoff stats?

[h=1]Do Broncos have any weaknesses?[/h][h=3]Baltimore must send big blitzes and use tight ends to have a chance[/h]
By Aaron Schatz | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER

It is often said that football is a game of matchups. But it may be more accurate to say that football is a game of strengths and weaknesses. Coaches examine all the matchups to figure out where they have an advantage, then try to attack the opponent's weaknesses through certain plays or tendencies.

That presents a real problem for the Baltimore Ravens as they enter Saturday's divisional-round contest against the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are an extremely well-rounded team without a lot of glaring weaknesses. They finished in the top five of Football Outsiders' ratings for both offense and defense.

Do they have any weaknesses that Baltimore can exploit?
<offer>The short answer is no. In fact, even some positions that would have been seen as weaknesses a few months ago haven't been a problem recently for Denver. For example, Football Outsiders wrote before the season that free-agent acquisition Tracy Porter had very poor stats as a cornerback in New Orleans and would be a weak link in the Broncos' pass defense. However, Porter came down with an illness in mid-October, left the lineup and ended up demoted when Chris Harris and Tony Carter were clearly better. He's now the fourth corner and won't see the field much, especially against a Ravens team that rarely puts out four-wide sets.

In preparation for this game, we combed through all the Football Outsiders stats looking for Denver's flaws. However, when we did find places where the Broncos were weak, the Ravens were usually weak as well.

For example, Denver has a tendency to start slowly: The Broncos rank 12th in offensive DVOA in the first quarter. (DVOA, FO's main system for rating teams and players, is explained here.) However, the Baltimore defense isn't particularly good in the first quarter either, ranking 22nd.

As you might expect from a team that depends on Peyton Manning, the Denver offense is much better passing the ball than running the ball. The Broncos rank second in our ratings for passing, 15th for rushing. But when they really, really need to run for just a yard or two, the Broncos get it more often than not. Denver converted 67 percent of runs in "power" situations (third down, fourth down or goal line with 1-2 yards to go), which ranks ninth in the league. Meanwhile, the Baltimore defense, which has been great against the run for over a decade, slipped badly in 2012 and was just 26th in our rankings. The Ravens were also awful in those short-yardage situations, allowing opponents to convert 76 percent of the time.

On defense, the Broncos have had a lot of trouble stopping opponents in the red zone. Though they rank fifth in our defensive ratings overall, they are 19th in the red zone, including 27th against red zone passing. However, the Ravens' offense also ranks just 19th in the red zone and is 28th on red zone passes.

Our Adjusted Line Yards statistic, which measures how well teams block or stop runs in different directions, shows that the Broncos have trouble stopping runs to the left. However, the Ravens are better running up the middle or to the right than they are running left.

Baltimore does have a clear advantage over Denver on special teams, but this doesn't really qualify as "attacking a weakness." The Ravens led FO's special teams ratings this season, while Denver was 13th. The Broncos were 25th in punt return value, but the negative value is almost all veteran Jim Leonhard; if Trindon Holliday's ankle is healthy enough for him to go, punt returns should be fine. And the Broncos ranked just 26th in FG/XP value, as Matt Prater was just 8-of-13 on field goal attempts over 40 yards despite kicking half the time in high altitude. Of course, in order to force Prater into a long field goal, the Ravens have to stop Manning first.

After going through all the trends and tendencies, we really found just two obvious examples where Denver weaknesses match up with Baltimore strengths. First, according to ESPN Stats & Information data, Manning was surprisingly weak this season against big blitzes of six or more. Manning had only 5.2 yards per play against big blitzes, compared to 7.9 yards per play the rest of the time. Only Blaine Gabbert was big-blitzed a higher percentage of the time than Manning, who faced six or more on 10 percent of pass plays. He was also poor against defensive back blitzes, averaging just 5.3 yards per play.

Second, like a doughnut, the only clear hole in the Denver defense is right in the center. An injury to Joe Mays forced 37-year-old veteran Keith Brooking into the lineup at middle linebacker. Brooking wasn't very good in pass coverage as a 30-year-old Pro Bowler in Atlanta, and he's even worse now. The Broncos ranked just 24th covering tight ends this season, with players like Jermaine Gresham and Greg Olsen burning Brooking for season-high 100-yard games.

These specific matchups were bright spots for Baltimore when it played Denver a month ago. The Ravens sent four big blitzes, and Manning completed just 1 of 3 passes, with a 7-yard sack. They blitzed a defensive back five times, and while Manning completed three of those five passes, the Broncos gained only 16 yards, with no first downs. Meanwhile, Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta caught 7 of 10 pass targets for 125 yards and two touchdowns.

And yet despite doing a good job of attacking these specific Broncos weaknesses, the Ravens lost 34-17 in a game that was only that close because Pitta scored both his touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

In other words, Baltimore is going to need to play a near perfect game to beat Denver on Saturday.
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JustinCruise said:

You want to talk about peytons playoff stats?

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Peyton Manning has been to the playoffs 11 times in his career. Seven of those appearances were one-game-and-done. Three of those seven losses came in the divisional round when his team had the benefit of a bye.

JustinCruise said:

You want to talk about peytons playoff stats?

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Two chokers will meet for the AFC championship.

One has to win.

Ravens can win....

donkeybucks said:

Peyton Manning has been to the playoffs 11 times in his career. Seven of those appearances were one-game-and-done. Three of those seven losses came in the divisional round when his team had the benefit of a bye.

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Exactly, and he is 0-3 in games in freezing weather.

I think denver wins this week just because flacco is that bad

But manning has been pretty damn bad in his playoff career and im not sure why people think that is suddenly going to change.

NickPappagiorgio said:

Green Bay, SF and Sea all better than any of the 4 remaining AFC teams

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agree

VIEJO DINOSAUR said:

Ravens can win....

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I wouldn't be surprised VD

It never ceases to amaze me that when people handicap football, they concentrate on the quarterback only. It's team against team. In the trenches, the ability to run and stop the run, pass and stop the pass, special teams, punting, place kicking and key matchups of individual players. It's all about the team folks and not just one skilled player. hno: