Line inflation on Divisional games

It's no secret the books have been getting hit hard by public teams, and as a result I think we are seeing lines that are pretty far off what they should be in 3/4 games this weekend. Whether you agree or disagree with me, I'm going to post what the lines currently are and what I have them at, and after we can see how far off or close I was. I typically do my best in the NFL playoffs- I was 3/4 last weekend, getting Houston, GB (had them way before the Webb start was announced even), and Balty. I lost on Washington, although I think Seattle is a much better team I think the matchup favored Wash and if the RG3 injury wasn't mishandled SO pathetically by the Redskins staff and everyone involved feel they could have won that game still. Anyways:

Actual line: Denver -10 over Baltimore. My opinion: Denver -6, ADV: Baltimore +10
Denver one of those public teams mentioned above... Baltimore finally has all of their defensive studs back. If they can get a decent road game out of Flacco, and have him not SUCK for one game on the road, they will have a shot at the outright win. Regardless, I think 10 to a veteran team is way too much at this point.

Actual Line: SF -3 over GB. My Opinion: SF -7 ADV: SF -3
If you look around right now, this is one that is most mismatched on bets. Everyone is taking the road dog, as I think at this point GB is the favorite to come out of the NFC. GB has been hot the second half of this season, but they are NOT the team they were the last couple years. I have watched a ton of their games.. they almost lack the killer instinct. Even though they so clearly overmatched the Vikings last week, that game should have ended way more lopsided than it did. SF already beat them handily in GB first game of the year, and whether you are a Smith or Kaepernick fan, they have been fairly consistent the majority of the season (NYG game being the big dud), but still much more consistent than GB has been. Also getting back a lot of their injured guys, although Manningham injury hurts a bit. Still too much value being placed on GB

Actual Line: ATL -2.5 over Seattle. My Opinion: Seattle -4 over ATL ADV: Seattle -4
As bad as they played for much of the first half against Washington, Seattle was on the road in a hostile environment with a rookie QB and came out with a win. As tough as it is to watch their offense sometimes, when they can get the ground game going with Lynch, they are able to rest on their top 5 defense and eventually points will come. Atlanta is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL, and while there were certainly games they were impressive this year, there were a lot of head scratchers like the Carolina game where you just noticed they have a below average defense and no run game. Defense is important in the NFL playoffs, and the fact that Atlanta's only real edge over Seattle is the passing game, which happens to be Seattles strength (pass defense), I just don't think ATL has advantages in the other areas to win this game. The bookmakers agree- they are making a team coming off a bye less than a FG favorite at home? Seattle wins.

Actual Line: New England -9.5. My Opinion: NE -7
This is the one game I don't feel there is a significant advantage vs the spread. NE already showed they have some significant advantages over Houston in the regular season game, but it's never as easy the second time around. Houston is a very good football team, and has the better Defense, plus some pretty heavy motivation after getting embarrased the first go round. But I expect this game to be way tighter, maybe a FG-TD game most of the way. NE can put up points in a hurry when its clicking, so I have no real opinion on this game, think it's pretty spot on with a slight lean to Houston

Good luck this weekend, just my thoughts

I like balto this weekend middie. I feel that game better than the rest.

Very good input...thanks.
How many factors are used to derive your lines?

I think you are spot on with SF....

albatross said:

i think you are spot on with all the picks.

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fyp

The trouble with SF is the fact that their QB has NO playoff experience at all. Do you really think that Green Bay will not exploit that? Remember we are talking about a SF team that coulfd not defeat the Rams in two games this season. A team who'se offense scored 13 or less points 5 times this season. I cannot back the 49ers. Green Bay should be a push in this game. They would be -7 at home.

I think Baltimore is all played out. Way too many "if's" for them. "If" Flacco can play a decent away game. "If" the defense is not totally exhaused on the 2nd half. "If" the Ravens did not give everything they had for Ray Lewis's last home game. I see Denver cruising in the 2nd half. Baltimore + the points in the 1st half may be a good play.

Seattle would have been a good play, but they lost their best pass rusher and their FG kicker. Now they are stuck with Ryan Longwell, who has not kicked a FG all year. The loss of Chris Clemons is going to give Matt Ryan extra time to find open receivers. Traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast twice in two weeks will also take it's toll. With the line at -2.5 or less, this is definately a game to pass on.

Ditto for the Pats-Texan's game. The Pats can score a ton of points, but their defense is not real good. Houston has not been imprssive for the past three weeks. Did they peak too early? Another pass for me.

Midman, i agree with your picks ... All 4
and have played them as well on monday...

3pointdog said:

Midman, i agree with your picks ... All 4
and have played them as well on monday...

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Good to hear.. I'd love to be right on all, but we all know how hard that is. Seattle is my strongest, they will miss Clemons but their D unit is so strong I really dont view it as a total gamechanger, theykl still get to Ryan. And not at all concerned about Longwell.. hes a vet and playing in a dome.. total nonfactor. If he misses the gamewinner Ill come back and say i was wrong but I doubt I am

midman2161 said:

Good to hear.. I'd love to be right on all, but we all know how hard that is. Seattle is my strongest, they will miss Clemons but their D unit is so strong I really dont view it as a total gamechanger, theykl still get to Ryan. And not at all concerned about Longwell.. hes a vet and playing in a dome.. total nonfactor. If he misses the gamewinner Ill come back and say i was wrong but I doubt I am

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My first instinct was also seattle because of their very good defense but the extra week scares me. I'm starting to lean on the under, as the extra week should help Atlanta's defense prepare for Wlson and their offense.

Hawks today.

booooooom.

2 guaranteed winners for championship sunday- 49ers ML, pats under. no time for writeups- all i can say is nightmare matchup for ATL who rank near the bottom of the league in rushing and defense (the two areas that you need to be strong to beat SF), and under is a value play in a game where the line should be 45 but inflated due to last weekends high scoring games.

locked in right now and fully expect to win these two as well lets go.

MM2161 .... nice call on both Championship games

Look forward to thoughts on the big dance

It's going to be Niners M/l. I will get a writeup together when I get the time. I have lost ONE game in the playoffs- the Redskins game which easily could have gone the other way with Shanahan not acting like a goddamn fool. I usually do very well in the playoffs and cant even remember the last time I lost a SB game.. I've had some detailed writeups in the past for the big game. I think outside of QB there are significant advantages for SF on both sides of the ball- I'll admit Flacco and Balty are playing much improved right now. I was not surprised at all to see them beat Denver, I was surprised to see them beat NE although I think my pats really beat themselves from the last drive going into halftime the rest of the way. Kaepernick is talented enough to overcome Flacco's experience, and the rest of the team is far stronger in my opinion. I'll try and get a writeup posted next week.

nice hits man. I agree on the super bowl. will play the ML and spread

the only thing that worries me is i like to base picks on both reg season AND playoffs- and there is no doubt baltimore struggled having the defensive injuries all season and are playing much better as a unit right now with everyone back. it is a very small sample size and they just knocked off the consensus 2 best teams in the AFC. I still think SF is better though