Service Plays Thursday 1/10/13

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Study Group: Thursday's Top 25 NCAAB Betting Notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on all of Thursday’s ranked college basketball games:

(18) Michigan State at Iowa (+1)

The Spartans look for their first league win away from home when they visit Iowa. After falling at Minnesota on New Year's Eve, Michigan State was able to rebound at home with an easy 84-61 triumph over Purdue on Saturday. The buzz surrounding the Hawkeyes was somewhat warranted when they took the Indiana Hoosiers to the wire in their Big Ten opener on New Year's Eve. However, Iowa was no match for the Wolverines on Sunday, falling 95-67 in Ann Arbor. Michigan scored 76 points in the final 26 minutes, showcasing several highlight-reel plays that embarrassed the young Hawkeyes. Iowa is 6-1 ATS in its last seven overall.

(3) Arizona at Oregon (+1)

The Wildcats are off to their best start since the 1931-32 squad opened the season with 16 consecutive victories. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t room for improvement. Arizona shot just 36.2 percent from the field in a close call against Utah last time out. Oregon is 10-0 at home and has won 16 consecutive games at Matthew Knight Arena dating back to last season. Arizona is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.

St. Mary’s at (8) Gonzaga (-11)

Gonzaga has lived up to the hype after being touted as a potential Final Four team in the preseason, while Saint Mary’s cruised through a fairly easy nonconference schedule. This game features two of the WCC’s marquee players in Bulldogs junior forward Kelly Olynyk and Gaels senior point guard Matthew Dellavedova. The 7-foot Olynyk was named the WCC Player of the Week after averaging 23.3 points and 7.7 rebounds in victories at Oklahoma State, Pepperdine and Santa Clara. Gonzaga leads the WCC in scoring (80.7) and points allowed (63.1). The Gaels are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

Notable non-Top 25 games:

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (+11.5)

John Calipari's defending national champion Wildcats have already lost twice as many games as they did last season and are 0-2 on the road, while the Commodores snapped a two-game losing streak with a 64-50 victory over William & Mary on Jan. 2. Vanderbilt blocked a season-high 10 shots in that win and held the Tribe to just 34 percent shooting. The Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

UCLA at Utah (+5)

UCLA, which has won seven straight games overall, hasn’t played a true road game this season but will get its first taste of hostility when they travel to Utah on Thursday in what will be the first high-altitude experience for most of its freshman-laden roster. The Bruins enter as the Pac-12’s top scoring team (79.9 ppg) with the conference’s best shooting percentage (.480), while Utah has improved its national ranking in opponent field goal percentage from 321st in the nation last season to 22nd so far this campaign. All six of Utah’s losses this season have come by seven points or less, while the Bruins are 4-1 in games decided by five points or fewer. The Utes are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.

Arizona State at Oregon State (-4)

Arizona State won its first two conference games for just the fourth time in 35 seasons and seeks a 3-0 start in Pac-12 play when it visits Oregon State. This will be only Arizona State’s second road game – the Sun Devils beat Texas Tech on Dec. 22. Oregon State lost its Pac-12 opener to Oregon in a contest in which the Beavers were outplayed on both ends of the court. The Beavers have struggled in the interior since losing starting center Angus Brandt to a season-ending knee injury and are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.

Miami-Florida at North Carolina (-5)

North Carolina started the season ranked 12th in the nation, but an unranked Tar Heels’ squad looks to avoid a 0-2 start in ACC play when it hosts Miami. Virginia held North Carolina 29 points below its season average in a 61-52 loss on Sunday in the conference opener. The Tar Heels were outscored 11-2 in the final three minutes, losing for the second time in four games. Miami experienced a much more enjoyable start to conference play, beating Georgia Tech 62-49 on Saturday. The Hurricanes have won two in a row since ending December with losses to then No. 5 Arizona and Indiana State.

Exposing The Top 25: Where The Polls Went Wrong

Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team – North Carolina State Wolfpack (12-2 SU, 6-6 ATS)

The Wolfpack are the top shooting team in the country hitting over 53 percent of their shots from the field, and only recently have they climbed back into the rankings. They have won eight straight since losing to Michigan and they remain undefeated at home. They are dominating opponents in their own building, winning by an average margin of 18 points.

After failing to cover the spread in three straight games, N.C. State is just a 10-point favorite at home against Georgia Tech Wednesday. The Wolfpack shouldn't have any trouble with the Yellow Jackets and the line in that game appears to be a little low. They might get caught looking ahead though, as they have a date with Duke Saturday.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team - Cincinnati Bearcats (13-3 SU, 6-6 ATS)

The Bearcats came storming out of the gates winning 12 in a row to start the season, but all of those victories came against unranked opponents. The schedule has gotten a little tougher for Cincy and it has now lost three of its last four. Poor shooting has been an issue for the Bearcats. They shot just 31.3 percent from the field in their first loss of the season, losing to New Mexico by a score of 55-54 at home.

Cincinnati ranks among the worst in the country in field goal percentage, shooting just 43 percent. Until recently, it has been able to overcome poor shooting with great defense. But after losing to New Mexico, the Bearcats went on to lose their next two home games to St. Johns and Notre Dame. The schedule isn't going to get any easier for them, with upcoming games against Rutgers, Marquette and Syracuse over the next two weeks.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked - Maryland Terrapins (13-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)

The Terrapins are flying under the radar, not getting a lot of attention for a team with a 13-1 record. They have only played one ranked team this season and that was a 72-69 loss to Kentucky in their opening game. They have since gone on to win 13 straight games in very impressive fashion. Granted they haven't had a tough schedule, but they aren't just winning - they are mopping the floor with their opponents.

Maryland was an underdog in its only true road game so far this season, getting five points against Northwestern. The Terps went on the blow out the Wildcats by a 20-point margin, winning 77-57. They host Florida State at home in their next game but things start to get a lot more difficult after that, with upcoming road games at Miami and North Carolina, as well as hosting N.C. State next week.

NBA Betting: Toughest & Easiest Schedules Prior to the All-Star Break

Taking a given team’s schedule into consideration is a vital aspect of sports handicapping.

The NBA All-Star game is just over a month away, so we thought it would be beneficial to examine which teams have the easiest and toughest schedules prior to the break beginning Feb. 15.

Easiest Schedules

Denver Nuggets (20-16 SU, 22-14 ATS)

The Nuggets are entering a friendly portion of their schedule Wednesday when they host the Magic. Denver plays 12 of its next 14 games at home and has covered in three of its last four games overall. This is important to bettors because the Nuggets boast an impressive 10-3 ATS mark at the Pepsi Center.

Philadelphia 76ers (15-21 SU, 15-21 ATS)

NBA schedule-makers saddled the Sixers with a daunting road schedule early in the season, but now Philly enjoys a stretch where it plays 12 of its next 15 games at the friendly confines of the Wells Fargo Center against relatively weak opposition. The Sixers play the Raptors and Bucks twice in that span and will also have the chance to beat up on the Magic, Bobcats, Wizards and Hornets prior to the break.

Atlanta Hawks (20-13 SU, 13-19-1 ATS)

Atlanta’s 20-13 SU record hasn’t translated into ATS success (13-19-1) this season, but the Hawks will have the opportunity to improve on that mark in coming weeks. Atlanta only plays one back-to-back set (Brooklyn, San Antonio) and has good balance to its schedule with no more than two consecutive games on the road or at home prior to the break. The Hawks have been a better road bet (8-8 ATS) than at Philips Arena (5-11-1).

Toughest Schedules

Los Angeles Clippers (27-8 SU, 22-13 ATS)

The Clippers have an impressive 15-5 home ATS mark but are slightly under .500 ATS on the road (7-8). Los Angeles will be road warriors prior to the All-Star break, playing 14 of its next 20 away from La La Land. The Clippers embark on a season-high eight-game road swing predominantly against Eastern foes beginning in Minnesota on Jan. 30.

Houston Rockets (21-14 SU, 21-13-1 ATS)

The Rockets boast one of the top offenses in the Association thanks to the addition of James Harden, but they’ll be tested with a vigorous schedule in the next month or so. Houston hits the road for 13 of its next 20 games, including stops in tough venues such as Los Angeles, Golden State, Utah, Boston and Indiana. The Rockets are the hottest bet in the league, covering in 11 of their last 12 games.

Oklahoma City Thunder (26-8 SU, 20-13-1 ATS)

It’s no secret the Thunder have some of the top talent in the league and are one of the better bets this season. But Oklahoma City begins a stretch where it plays nine of its next 10 away from home beginning Friday in Los Angeles. The Thunder will play three times at the Staples Center (twice vs. the Lakers, once vs. the Clippers) during that stretch.

Knicks' Anthony Suspended for Thurs. tilt with Pacers

New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony has been suspended by the league for one game without pay for his altercation with forward Kevin Garnett following Monday night’s game with the Boston Celtics.

Anthony will serve the brief suspension Thursday night when the Knicks visit the Indiana Pacers. Odds are being held off the board at most books overnight, but Nevada-based oddsmaking service The Sports Club is sending out a suggested spread of Pacers -2 with the total set at 186.

The Pacers boast the second-best defense in the Association (89.5 PPG), a factor oddsmakers will surely take into consideration with New York’s top scorer sidelined.

Anthony is averaging 29 points and six rebounds in 28 games this season.

Pointwise

CBB

THURSDAY, JANUARY 10 SCORE
(7:00) TROY 79 - La-Monroe 65
(7:00) YOUNGSTOWN STATE 73 - Detroit 72
(7:00) Temple 71 - XAVIER 70
(7:00) GEORGE MASON 65 - Old Dominion 63 (NBCS)
(7:00) Michigan State 86 - IOWA 78 (ESPN2)
(7:00) NORTH CAROLINA 64 - Miami-Florida 57 (ESPN)

(8:00) PENN STATE 65 - Northwestern 62 (ESPNU)
(8:00) MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST 76 - Florida-Atlantic 56
(8:00) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO 62 - Texas-Arlington 61
(8:00) ARKANSAS STATE 78 - Florida International 64
(8:00) ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 67 - North Texas 66
(8:00) South Alabama 73 - LA-LAFAYETTE 63
(8:00) TEXAS STATE 60 - Louisiana Tech 59

(9:00) BYU 82 - Pepperdine 60
(9:00) Kentucky 76 - VANDERBILT 67 (ESPN)
(9:00) OREGON 65 - Arizona 64
(9:00) SAINT LOUIS 71 - Massachusetts 70 (CBSC)
(9:30) UTAH 63 - Ucla 62

(10:00) SEATTLE 69 - New Mexico State 68
(10:00) SAN FRANCISCO 82 - San Diego 71
(10:00) COLORADO 78 - Southern California 60 (ESPN)
(10:00) IDAHO 62 - Denver 55
(10:00) PACIFIC 58 - Cal-Santa Barbara 50
(10:00) Santa Clara 67 - LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 63
(10:00) CAL-DAVIS 66 - Cal-Poly Slo 57

(11:00) GONZAGA 80 - Saint Marys 65 (ESPN2)
(11:30) OREGON STATE 73 - Arizona State 61

BEST BETS: MICHIGAN STATE, PENN STATE, SOUTH ALABAMA, BYU,
MASSACHUSETTS, SAN FRANCISCO, GONZAGA.

NBA

THURSDAY, JANUARY 10 SCORE
(8:00) New York Knicks 98 - INDIANA PACERS 95 (TNT)

(10:05) SACRAMENTO 113 - Dallas Mavericks 97
(10:35) PORTLAND BLAZERS 105 - Miami Heat 99 (TNT)

BEST BETS: SACRAMENTO, PORTLAND (3)

JOE WIZ Bonus Play

Nebraska Omaha +6 over IUPUI

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Virginia Commonwealth (-10 1/2) Wednesday.

Thursday it’s Saint Louis. The surplus is 240 sirignanos.

Gold Medal Club Selections 10/01/2013
CBB:
#509 Detroit PK
#529 South Alabama +2.5

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Pacers won 11 of last 14 games (7-3 HF).
-- Kings won four of last five at home, but it came out yesterday that team will probably move to Seattle next year-- this will be a sad night for Kings squad that is 4-2-1 HF.
-- Portland won five of last six games (4-1 HU).

Cold Teams
-- Knicks are 5-6 in last eleven games (3-3 AU).
-- Dallas lost four in row, 10 of last 11 games (9-6 last 15 AU).
-- Miami is 3-4 in its last seven games (4-9 AF).


Totals
-- Four of last five New York games went over the total; seven of Pacers' last eight games stayed under.
-- Eight of last nine Sacramento games went over total
-- Seven of last ten Miami games stayed under the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Mavericks are 5-4 vs spread if they played night before.

CBB

-- Detroit won seven of last eight games vs Youngstown, winning four in row in this gym, by 4-8-4-2 points; Titans won seven of last eight, with only loss at Syracuse by 4- they won first two Horizon games, by 15-8 points- their only win in six road games was at #295 Alcorn by 16. YSU split first two Horizon games, losing by 5, winning by 2 (both on road).
-- Home team won last seven Temple-Xavier games; Owls lost last three visits here, by 8-9-11 points. Temple is 3-1 on road, winning at Kent St, Buffalo, Villanova, losing by 7 at Kansas- they're 8-1 vs teams outside top 100. Xavier lost last four games, scoring 51.5 ppg; they've won four of six home games, losing to Vandy/Wofford by total of three points.
-- Michigan State won nine of last ten games with Iowa, winning four in row, by 19-5-34-17 points; they've won two of last three visits to Iowa City, also beat Hawkeyes in last two Big Dozen tourneys. Spartans are 11-0 when they score 64+ points, 1-3 otherwise; they're 2-3 away from home. Iowa opened league play by losing to Indiana (4), Michigan (28).
-- North Carolina is 1-4 vs teams in top 150, with only win over UNLV by 6 at home; Tar Heels won nine of last ten games vs Miami, winning last four here, by 41-17-7-17 points. 'canes are 4-1 on road, with loss at Florida Gulf Coast by 12- their last six wins are all by 13+. Carolina is #306 in experience; they shoot 63.7% from foul line (#300 in country).

-- Kentucky won five of last six games, but they're 1-4 this year vs clubs in top 200; Wildcats won six of last eight games vs Vanderbilt, winning three of last four here, with wins by 13-2-6 points; Vandy beat them LY in SEC tourney. Commodores are 0-5 vs teams in top 100, losing by 26-13-10-4-19 points; two of those (Villanova/Butler) came at home.
-- UCLA won last seven games, last three vs top 70 teams; this is first true road game of year for Bruins, who whacked Utah 76-49 in LA LY, in teams' only meeting. Utes lost four of their last five games, with five losses all by 5 or less points; they lost two games in Arizona last week by total of 4 points. UCLA is 302nd in country in terms of experience.
-- 14-0 Arizona has two road wins, by 28 at Texas Tech, at Clemson by 12; Wildcats won six of last seven games with Oregon, but got upset at home by Ducks 59-57 LY, in teams' only meeting. 12-2 Ducks split pair in Vegas, only two top 100 games they've played, beating UNLV by 4, losing to Cincinnati by 11. Arizona won its last three visits to Eugene by 10-14-19 points.
-- USC has played #25 schedule to this point; they're 0-3 on road, with losses by 12-8-8 points. Colorado lost twice in Arizona last week; they got hosed in Tucson, am curious to see how they bounce back at home. Buffs are 6-1 vs squads outside top 100; they hammered USC 74-50 in LA LY, in teams' only meeting. USC is 3-5 vs teams in top 100, losing games by 30-6-8-14-8 points.
-- Denver won last three games, by 15-11-25 points; they're 1-5 on road, with only win by 15 at Texas-Arlington, in last road tilt. Idaho opened WAC play with 2-1 road trip, losing in OT at league kingpin Utah State; Vandals are 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 15-9-10 points- they force turnovers only 13.1% of time, less than any team in country.

-- Santa Clara lost twice to LMU LY, by 12-3 points, after going 7-2 in previous nine series games; Broncos are 3-2 in last five visits here. LMU is 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 3-21-41-13 points, but big losses all came on road. Broncos are 3-1 in true road games, winning by 12-21-4, with loss at Duke. LMU hasn't beaten a team ranked higher than #230.
-- St Mary's won eight of last nine games-- only one of those eight wins was over top 150 team; Gaels are 2-1 on road, losing at Northern Iowa by 7. Gonzaga won its last six games, with four of those by 7 or less points; Zags are just 3-4 in last seven games vs St Mary's, but Gaels lost eight of last nine visits here, with five of eight losses by 11+ points.
-- Oregon State lost eight of last nine games vs Arizona State, going 1-3 in last four played here; overall, Beavers lost two of last three, falling to Towson State/rival Ducks at home- their last seven wins are all vs clubs ranked #186 or lower. ASU won nine of last 10 games; they won by 15 at Texas Tech, in only true road game. Frosh PG Carson is huge plus.
-- South Dakota State is 1-7 in last eight games vs Oakland, but won by 12 in Grizzlies' last visit here; Jackrabbits just finished 3-3 month-long road swing- this is their first home game since Dec 9. Oakland is 3-10 on road, losing by 20 at Alabama Saturday; they've only played four home games this year. Teams shoot 59% inside arc vs Oakland, the 2nd-worst percentage in country.

[h=1]NCAA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]St. Mary's at Gonzaga[/h] The Bulldogs look to build on their 11-4 ATS record in their last 15 home games. Gonzaga is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-10). Here are all of today's games.

5Lines

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/10/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 1782-545 (.766)
ATS: 725-755 (.490)
ATS Vary Units: 2498-2671 (.483)
Over/Under: 195-195 (.500)
Over/Under Vary Units: 240-272 (.469)

Atlantic 10 Conference
SAINT LOUIS 73, Massachusetts 62
Temple 67, XAVIER 65

Atlantic Coast Conference
NORTH CAROLINA 73, Miami (Fla.) 70

Atlantic Sun Conference
EAST TENNESSEE STATE 73, Stetson 68
JACKSONVILLE 74, Kennesaw State 62
NORTH FLORIDA 66, Mercer 63
USC UPSTATE 74, Florida Gulf Coast 69

Big Sky Conference
EASTERN WASHINGTON 79, Northern Arizona 72
Montana 69, NORTH DAKOTA 60
NORTHERN COLORADO 77, Montana State 72
PORTLAND STATE 75, Sacramento State 67
Weber State 75, SOUTHERN UTAH 66

Big Ten Conference
Michigan State 70, IOWA 68
Northwestern vs. PENN STATE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Big West Conference
Cal Poly 70, UC DAVIS 66
PACIFIC 70, UC Santa Barbara 65

Colonial Athletic Association
GEORGE MASON 72, Old Dominion 58

Horizon League
Detroit 73, YOUNGSTOWN STATE 72

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Iona 83, MARIST 74
MANHATTAN 65, Rider 63

Northeast Conference
BRYANT 71, Quinnipiac 68
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE 78, Sacred Heart 72
MONMOUTH 74, Saint Francis (Pa.) 62
Robert Morris 75, FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 68
ST. FRANCIS (N.Y.) 73, Mount St. Mary's 64
Wagner 75, LONG ISLAND 74

Ohio Valley Conference
BELMONT 83, Southeast Missouri 61
Jacksonville State 64, SIUE 60
TENNESSEE STATE 79, UT Martin 57
Tennessee Tech vs. EASTERN ILLINOIS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Pacific-10 Conference
Arizona vs. OREGON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
COLORADO 70, Usc 54
OREGON STATE 74, Arizona State 69
Ucla 70, UTAH 61

Southeastern Conference
Kentucky 70, VANDERBILT 60

Southern Conference
Chattanooga 73, THE CITADEL 66
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON 74, Samford 54

Southland Conference
LAMAR 64, Sam Houston State 63
McNEESE STATE 70, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 60
ORAL ROBERTS 78, Northwestern State 74
Stephen F. Austin 75, CENTRAL ARKANSAS 60

Summit League
Iupui 82, OMAHA 74
NORTH DAKOTA STATE 76, Fort Wayne 57
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 80, Oakland 70

Sun Belt Conference
ARKANSAS STATE 76, Fairleigh Dickinson 62
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 74, Florida Atlantic 54
TROY 69, Ulm 64
UALR 70, North Texas 66
UL LAFAYETTE 73, South Alabama 71

West Coast Conference
BYU 80, Pepperdine 60
GONZAGA 80, Saint Mary's 70
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT 75, Santa Clara 74
SAN FRANCISCO 75, San Diego 66

Western Athletic Conference
IDAHO 63, Denver 62
Louisiana Tech 79, TEXAS STATE 67
New Mexico State 76, SEATTLE 70
UT Arlington 67, UT SAN ANTONIO 64

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

01/10/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 342-166 (.673)
ATS: 255-262 (.493)
ATS Vary Units: 772-711 (.521)
Over/Under: 266-251 (.515)
Over/Under Vary Units: 431-386 (.528)

INDIANA 97, New York 93
SACRAMENTO 104, Dallas 103
Miami 100, PORTLAND 96

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