NFL Playoffs week 2 (YTD 22-12 +11.63 units)

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After a few weeks where I didn't like anything i could make arguments for every game this week. I decided to limit it to 3...

San Fransisco -3 +110, 1* (The Greek)
Baltimore +9.5 -108, 1* (Pinnacle)
Seattle/Atlanta Under 45.5 +100, 1* (Pinnacle
)

If I had to pick the other game I would go woth Houston +9.5 but I'll skip because we all know that NE is probably the best organisation in football and there is no doubt they will be ready.

It should be a great weekend to watch some football, if any one wants some explanation on some of my plays just say so and I'll try and give one.

Gl all!!!
 

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After a few weeks where I didn't like anything i could make arguments for every game this week. I decided to limit it to 3...

San Fransisco -3 +110, 1* (The Greek)
Baltimore +9.5 -108, 1* (Pinnacle)
Seattle/Atlanta Under 45.5 +100, 1* (Pinnacle
)

If I had to pick the other game I would go woth Houston +9.5 but I'll skip because we all know that NE is probably the best organisation in football and there is no doubt they will be ready.

It should be a great weekend to watch some football, if any one wants some explanation on some of my plays just say so and I'll try and give one.

Gl all!!!

Guil0000,

I have the exact same card with some slightly different lines/juice. Hopefully, we can take down the sweep.

Continued success.
 

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BOL Guil (can't wait to get hockey started again)!

I am leaning SF as well but am concerned about Kapernick - would love to hear your thoughts on the game!
 

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BOL Guil (can't wait to get hockey started again)!

I am leaning SF as well but am concerned about Kapernick - would love to hear your thoughts on the game!

For me it's a combination of things.

First off we have just the public perception in general. Most people just love Rogers and and will bet him no matter what the situation is. Next I think the extra week rest will be huge for San Fransisco. The packers had to travel from Green Bay to San Fran while the 49ers were at home preparing. Now if we look at the matchup itself I think it favors the 9ers also. Green Bay were ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league in run offense and defense, sothey are pretty one dementional.... they throw the ball. San Fransisco is ranked top 5 in pass defense so they should be able to limit Rogers. Now they other way around San Fransico is ranked top 5 again in running and should have success againts GB. What some might not know is that SF is also ranked TOP 3 in PASSING. Yes there's some question on Kappernick but he brings another dimension to the offense and GB has had some problems with mobile QBs. He might blow up who knows asnd Rogers might play a hell of a game but I'm willing to take my chances in ad matchup that clearly favors the 49ers

edit. Does someone remember how bad the Pats looked against this team on prime time in NE. NE is very similiar to Gb except better. SF is very good guys. Be Carefull backing Rogers here
 

Balls Deep
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SF's Pass D relies on Justin Smith holding a defender with each arm while Aldon Smith uses things like stunts to get at the QB and/or RB. I don't expect Justin being able to do that as effectively with a torn triceps.

Aldon in the 3 games (includes the game Justin got hurt vs NE):
3 tackles, 5 assists, O Sacks and his QB pressures per game has dropped from 4.6 to 2.5

This is the same Aldon that had:
45 tackles, 10 assists, and 19.5 sacks in the games Justin was healthy.

Also, NE's rally vs SF came after Justin went down.
And Russell Wilson: 4 TD's vs SF without Justin. 0 TD's vs SF with Justin

I don't think this D is top 5 without a healthy Justin Smith.
 

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SF's Pass D relies on Justin Smith holding a defender with each arm while Aldon Smith uses things like stunts to get at the QB and/or RB. I don't expect Justin being able to do that as effectively with a torn triceps.

Aldon in the 3 games (includes the game Justin got hurt vs NE):
3 tackles, 5 assists, O Sacks and his QB pressures per game has dropped from 4.6 to 2.5

This is the same Aldon that had:
45 tackles, 10 assists, and 19.5 sacks in the games Justin was healthy.

Also, NE's rally vs SF came after Justin went down.
And Russell Wilson: 4 TD's vs SF without Justin. 0 TD's vs SF with Justin

I don't think this D is top 5 without a healthy Justin Smith.

Your analysis would be correct if Justin Smith wasn't playing. Truth is, no one knows how effective he'll be...not even Harbaugh. He did have four weeks to rest it tho...so I believe he'll be dominant tomorrow.
 

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SF's Pass D relies on Justin Smith holding a defender with each arm while Aldon Smith uses things like stunts to get at the QB and/or RB. I don't expect Justin being able to do that as effectively with a torn triceps.

Aldon in the 3 games (includes the game Justin got hurt vs NE):
3 tackles, 5 assists, O Sacks and his QB pressures per game has dropped from 4.6 to 2.5

This is the same Aldon that had:
45 tackles, 10 assists, and 19.5 sacks in the games Justin was healthy.

Also, NE's rally vs SF came after Justin went down.
And Russell Wilson: 4 TD's vs SF without Justin. 0 TD's vs SF with Justin

I don't think this D is top 5 without a healthy Justin Smith.

That is some really nice info. Thanks for the contribution
 

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Nice start to the weekend. Let's get that last one for the sweep
 

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we had two very high scoring games yesterday. Hope it evens out today.
 

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Thanks fo the support everyone unfortunally that last play was a bust.

YTD 24-13 +12.73 units

That might just do it for the football year for me. I think both favs wins next week but I don't see much value. Maybe some type of teaser or parlay but now I'm gonna start preparing for the nhl season.
 

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