NFL YTD
Preseason 14-9 (+4.75)
Reg Season 24-21-1 (+2.55)
Playoffs 2-0
Baltimore hits the road to take a shot at dropping Peyton Manning and the #1 AFC seed Broncos, and are seemingly given no shot here by the lines makers, as they areat or near double digit dogs depending on where you shop. Since 1978, double digit favorites are 19-4 straight up and 13-10 ATS, however the #1 seed in the AFC has not fared well of late, losers of 4 of the last 7 years (2-7 ATS), Denver has had a great season, winning 11 consecutive games, and has some fantastic stats to show for it. However the Broncos were able to fatten up those #'s on a weak AFC West, and only played 2 playoff teams during their winning streak.
These teams did play earlier, Denver traveled to Baltimore and beat them 34-17, riding a huge play from the defense in the closing moments of the first half on a Flacco 98 yard pick 6, I won't sit here and try to speculate the shoulda, coulda, woulda's of that game, but I will point out that in that game, Peyton threw for a season low 204 yards, and I tend to believe that the Ravens now that game was one they let get away, and have the makeup of a team that will be able to come into this situation, and play up to the moment, and be able to keep it with in what I believe, is an inflated number.
The combination of a veteran Ravens team that has played five straight years in this round, and the fact the Peyton has struggled in the playoffs (9-10 SU/ATS, 3-6 SU/ATS outdoors, 0-3 SU/ATS when kickoff temp is below 40) leads me to believe that there is some value here that is worth a look. On the road, 3 of the Ravens 4 losses this year came against playoff teams and only 1 of those losses was by more than 6 points (a 30 point beat down at Houston, the week after Houston was shelled versus Green Bay).
The edge for Baltimore IMO, to keep it within the 10 points, should be their edge in the Red zone, and their ability to force teams to take a shot at 3 points, versus punching it in for touchdowns. Baltimore leads the NFL in red zone defense, allowing TD's on just 41.07% of red zone possessions (Denver defense ranks 25th allowing 58.54%), and the Ravens have played it even tighter while on the road, allowing teams to punch it in just 34.62% of the time. I like my chances here with the big road dogs to keep it close and see this game coming down to the wire.
Baltimore +10
Preseason 14-9 (+4.75)
Reg Season 24-21-1 (+2.55)
Playoffs 2-0
Baltimore hits the road to take a shot at dropping Peyton Manning and the #1 AFC seed Broncos, and are seemingly given no shot here by the lines makers, as they areat or near double digit dogs depending on where you shop. Since 1978, double digit favorites are 19-4 straight up and 13-10 ATS, however the #1 seed in the AFC has not fared well of late, losers of 4 of the last 7 years (2-7 ATS), Denver has had a great season, winning 11 consecutive games, and has some fantastic stats to show for it. However the Broncos were able to fatten up those #'s on a weak AFC West, and only played 2 playoff teams during their winning streak.
These teams did play earlier, Denver traveled to Baltimore and beat them 34-17, riding a huge play from the defense in the closing moments of the first half on a Flacco 98 yard pick 6, I won't sit here and try to speculate the shoulda, coulda, woulda's of that game, but I will point out that in that game, Peyton threw for a season low 204 yards, and I tend to believe that the Ravens now that game was one they let get away, and have the makeup of a team that will be able to come into this situation, and play up to the moment, and be able to keep it with in what I believe, is an inflated number.
The combination of a veteran Ravens team that has played five straight years in this round, and the fact the Peyton has struggled in the playoffs (9-10 SU/ATS, 3-6 SU/ATS outdoors, 0-3 SU/ATS when kickoff temp is below 40) leads me to believe that there is some value here that is worth a look. On the road, 3 of the Ravens 4 losses this year came against playoff teams and only 1 of those losses was by more than 6 points (a 30 point beat down at Houston, the week after Houston was shelled versus Green Bay).
The edge for Baltimore IMO, to keep it within the 10 points, should be their edge in the Red zone, and their ability to force teams to take a shot at 3 points, versus punching it in for touchdowns. Baltimore leads the NFL in red zone defense, allowing TD's on just 41.07% of red zone possessions (Denver defense ranks 25th allowing 58.54%), and the Ravens have played it even tighter while on the road, allowing teams to punch it in just 34.62% of the time. I like my chances here with the big road dogs to keep it close and see this game coming down to the wire.
Baltimore +10
