Exbookie playoffs Round 3.............

ACE-ACE · Jan 15, 2013

Investment plays 16-8-1 +$15,555.00
Action plays 44-45-1 -$2861.00
Total 60-53-2 +$12,694.00
411 system now 16-8-1 67%

there will be a 411 play this week!!...should be the last one of the season

my time at the rx has been great winning 8 out of 9 years counting this year.

16 out of 19 years I have beat the NFL...My best Sport.

As of now I have only one play this week....I will look at Prob/bets and see if I can add one or two.

only two newletters...more will be added as they come to me

WinningPoints
http://www.mediafire.com/?ag9tzobbygcuir1

Sportsreporter
http://www.mediafire.com/?okp2406jv27lr4u

NFL SEASON ONLY HAS 3 MORE GAMES

Dont cry because it over

Smile because it happened

More to come

Ace

ACE-ACE · Jan 15, 2013

[h=3]Top NFL Public Bets[/h]

#1

301

San Francisco 49ers

72%

#2

303

Baltimore Ravens

61%

ACE-ACE · Jan 16, 2013

what the lines will be.....

Super Bowl XLVII game line - Mercedes Benz Superdome - New Orleans, Louisiana - Sunday, January 20, 2013 3:00 PM
25091 AFC Super Bowl team	-2½ -115	-140	Over 50½ -110
25092 NFC Super Bowl team	+2½ -105	+120	Under 50½ -110
San Francisco 49ers vs Baltimore Ravens - Superbowl XLVII - Sunday, January 20, 2013 3:00 PM
26101 San Francisco 49ers	-3½ -115	-185
26102 Baltimore Ravens	+3½ -115	+155
San Francisco 49ers vs New England Patriots - Superbowl XLVII - Sunday, January 20, 2013 3:00 PM
26103 San Francisco 49ers	+2 -115	+110
26104 New England Patriots	-2 -115	-140
Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens - Superbowl XLVII - Sunday, January 20, 2013 3:00 PM
26105 Atlanta Falcons	-1½ -115	-130
26106 Baltimore Ravens	+1½ -115	+100
Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots - Superbowl XLVII - Sunday, January 20, 2013 3:00 PM
26107 Atlanta Falcons	+5½ -115	+190
26108 New England Patriots	-5½ -115	-250

ACE-ACE · Jan 16, 2013

PROps bets

SF/Atl
http://www.mediafire.com/?bgmj4nf24086vl3

NE/Balt
http://www.mediafire.com/?559pc6z492uo556

3pointdog · Jan 16, 2013

ACE-ACE said:
Top NFL Public Bets

#1
301
San Francisco 49ers
72%

#2
303
Baltimore Ravens
61%

Im opposite of both....

kunkel77 · Jan 16, 2013

Hey Ace,

Any Powersweep newsletter yet this week?

Thanks and great job this year!!

Kunkel

ACE-ACE · Jan 16, 2013

kunkel77 said:
Hey Ace,

Any Powersweep newsletter yet this week?

Thanks and great job this year!!

Kunkel

no see as of now...will post if I see it

thanks

Ace

DukeSnider · Jan 16, 2013

3pointdog said:
Im opposite of both....

Not trying to start anything but why do we need to know this ?

crystalblue · Jan 16, 2013

Any my-line numbers. Thanks

ACE-ACE · Jan 17, 2013

kingaaron189 said:
any my-line numbers. Thanks

myline number

..................year.......last8 games......last 4
sf...................................-1........................
Atl..............-8.5..................................-8.5

bal......................................................-1.5
ne...............-17................-7..................

This will give you another view of the game

ACE-ACE · Jan 17, 2013

MORE SHEETS

GS
http://www.mediafire.com/?txdy1p7pr5qv8d3

PB Midweek
http://www.mediafire.com/?w9bbdrx6bdsp4nf

PFW
http://www.mediafire.com/?es34p1wt1lkrbtx

Nellys Green Sheet
http://www.mediafire.com/?4t5a4odls8y46ng

ACE-ACE · Jan 17, 2013

THING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE GAMES

In the NFC Championship Game, it's ...
#2 SAN FRANCISCO (12-4-1) at #1 ATLANTA (14-3) - 3 p.m. ET, Fox
Gotta ask yourself the question as to whether or not the NFC's top-seeded Atlanta Falcons will be sick-and-tired of hearing about San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick by the time we get to Sunday's kickoff - no doubt the do-it-all Niners star who's fresh off a 263-yard passing and NFL QB-record 181 yards rushing performance in last Saturday night's 45-31 win/cover against Green Bay has been hogging all the early-week headlines and so that could really stoke this Falcons defense that's allowed more than 24 points just four times this whole season.On the flip side, Atlanta's born-again RB Michael Turner (14 carries for 98 hard-charging yards last week in that 30-28 win against Seattle in NFL Divisional Playoff action) is hinting that he wants more carries against a San Francisco defense that ranks fourth in the NFL against the rush (94.2 yards per game yield).THE LAST 10 NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

SEASON	WINNER	SPREAD	LOSER	SCORE
2011	New York Giants	+ 2	SAN FRANCISCO	20-17 (ot)
2010	Green Bay	- 3.5	CHICAGO	21-14
2009	NEW ORLEANS	- 4	Minnesota	31-28 (ot)
2008	ARIZONA	+ 3.5	Philadelphia	32-25
2007	New York Giants	+ 8	GREEN BAY	23-20 (ot)
2006	CHICAGO	- 2.5	New Orleans	39-14
2005	SEATTLE	- 3.5	Carolina	34-14
2004	PHILADELPHIA	- 5.5	Atlanta	27-10
2003	Carolina	+ 4	PHILADELPHIA	14-3
2002	Tampa Bay	+ 4	PHILADELPHIA	27-10

Okay, so NFC Championship Game Betting Favorites are just 4-6 ATS (against the spread) dating back the past 10 years and note that includes five outright upset winners including last year's game when the two-point road underdog New York Giants snagged a 20-17 overtime win in San Francisco. Overall, NFC Championship Game Home Betting Favorites - as the Niners were a year ago - are a cumulative 3-5 versus the vig while Road Betting Favorites (as is the case with San Fran this weekend in Atlanta) are 1-1 spreadwise the past 10 years and that features Green Bay's 7-point win in Chicago two years ago and Philadelphia's road chalk loss in Arizona back in the 2008 campaign.Keep in mind that three of the last five NFC Championship Games have been decided by 3 points apiece (see both overtime title game wins by the Giants and that OT winner by the Saints in '09) and strange-but-true the last five NFC Championship Games have been decided by 7 points or less after the previous five NFC Championship Games each was decided by twin-figure margins ... go figure!Are we headed to yet another NFC Championship Game overtime affair - or are they "reserved" for the odds seasons as in 2007, '09 and 2011? Stay tuned!In the AFC Championship Game, it's ...
#4 BALTIMORE (12-6) at #2 NEW ENGLAND (13-4) - 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Put it this way: If the heavy-duty favorite Patriots play another "clean game" than the visiting Ravens probably don't stand much of a chance here:Consider that in last week's 41-28 walk-in-the-park win by New England over Houston in an AFC Divisional Playoffs tilt, the Pats didn't commit a single turnover and that means 24 rushing attempts without a fumble and 40 QB Tom Brady passes without a single interception (and just one sack for nine yards).On the other hand, Baltimore knows it is gonna need a few "chunk plays" to survive-and-advance here.

In last week's wild 38-35 overtime win at Denver in the other AFC Divisional Playoff tilt, the QB Joe Flacco-led offense had the following "chunk plays" ...

A Flacco-to-WR Torrey Smith 59-yard touchdown pass play in the first quarter
A Flacco-to-Smith 32-yard scoring strike late in the first half;
A 20-yard run by RB Ray Rice less than three minutes into the second half
A 32-yard run by Rice late in the third quarter
And, of course, the famed Flacco-to-Jones 70-yard rainbow TD pass that sent the game into overtime.

Baltimore likely needs another four or five "clunk plays" from the line of scrimmage to steal this one. Agree?THE LAST 10 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

SEASON	WINNER	SPREAD	LOSER	SCORE
2011	NEW ENGLAND	- 7	Baltimore	23-20
2010	PITTSBURGH	- 4	New York Jets	24-19
2009	INDIANAPOLIS	- 8	New York Jets	30-17
2008	PITTSBURGH	- 6	Baltimore	23-14
2007	NEW ENGLAND	- 14	San Diego	21-12
2006	INDIANAPOLIS	- 3	New England	38-34
2005	Pittsburgh	+ 3	DENVER	34-17
2004	New England	- 3	PITTSBURGH	41-27
2003	NEW ENGLAND	- 3	Indianapolis	24-14
2002	OAKLAND	- 8	Tennessee	41-24

Interesting to note that in the last 10 AFC Championship Games, the Betting Favorites have fared much better with a snazzy 7-3 ATS mark that includes last year's non-cover win by New England in that thrilling 23-20 triumph over Baltimore. In fact, the Pats have failed to cover their last two title game appearances as Home Betting Favorites (see also 2007 season non-cover win against San Diego) and overall the Pats have failed to cover any of their last three AFC Championship Game appearances while dating back to that epic collapse in the 2006 game loss at Indianapolis.Home Betting Favorites are a combined 6-3 versus the vig in the last 10 AFC Championship Games with the only road dog outright winners during this span occurring in the 2005 season when Pittsburgh snagged a 17-point win at 3-point home fav Denver. Last year's Ravens and the '07 San Diego Chargers are the only two AFC Championship Game road dogs to get the "cash" in these games.One final note here: Half of the last 10 AFC Championship Games have been decided by double-digit margins and only three title games have been decided by fewer than 9 points ... just sayin'!

dast · Jan 17, 2013

Ace, who do u think gets to the superbowl and who wins it?

U said a lot of money is needed to get a line from 3. The line went form 2,5 to 4 ( 3,5), so what does that mean? That everybody put there money on SF ( sharps and public)? The line looks steady at 3,5 now, so sharps like sf?

ACE-ACE · Jan 17, 2013

dast said:
Ace, who do u think gets to the superbowl and who wins it?

U said a lot of money is needed to get a line from 3. The line went form 2,5 to 4 ( 3,5), so what does that mean? That everybody put there money on SF ( sharps and public)? The line looks steady at 3,5 now, so sharps like sf?

Denver...but we know that will not happen..hahaaha going between 2.5- 4 means 72% of the public is on sf. Only way you know more money is on the other side is know a sport book....my guy in chi. Got 50-50 action on that game...not 72-28

uscmd · Jan 17, 2013

3pointdog

*Originally Posted by*ACE-ACE*
Top NFL Public Bets

#1 301 San Francisco 49ers 72%

#2 303 Baltimore Ravens 61%

Im opposite of both....

DukeSnider said:
Not trying to start anything but why do we need to know this ?

** * *Now thats funny. *

My 2 cents. *NE wins su. *But Bal stays within 10, and I'm leaning toward same for Atl, i.e., they stay within the number. *Getting 4 or 4.5 for the home team tough to pass up. *BOL 2 all!!*:toast:

DukeSnider · Jan 17, 2013

I hereby ban you from further posts for 30 days.....now that's funnier...:lolBIG:

BTW...do you mind if I use your picks ?

3pointdog · Jan 18, 2013

DukeSnider said:
Not trying to start anything but why do we need to know this ?

Not trying to start anything?? Then don't post your stupid response. Does it matter to you that Ace and I share info..??

Mind YOUR business and that would be great.

juice9 · Jan 18, 2013

New England / Baltimore forecast 30 15-35 mph winds. Temp with wind chill will be in the teens.

ACE-ACE · Jan 19, 2013

[h=1]What Sharps are Betting in the NFL Conference Championship Games[/h]
Sportsbooks have been enduring quite a challenge this week in the NFC and AFC Championship games that will determine next month’s Super Bowl combatants. To this point in the proceedings, the sharps (professional wagerers) and the squares (the general public) have been betting the same teams!
*Sharps and squares have both liked favored San Francisco at the posted lines, though oddsmakers did eventually push the number to a place that brought in underdog Atlanta money.
*Sharps and squares have both liked Baltimore plus the high number, though the split of bets isn’t as dramatic in this case because New England does have enduring support from some elements in the market.
Let’s go over how sharps have been betting the two games thus far, taking the matchups in schedule order…

SAN FRANCISCO at ATLANTA
Opening Line: San Francisco by 3, total of 47
Current Line: San Francisco by 4, total of 48.5
Early guesses last Sunday had San Francisco opening below a field goal. Rumblings within the market during Atlanta’s second-half collapse vs. Seattle about potential sharp support for the Niners caused most places to open at the three. Sportsbooks got POUNDED with sharp action anyway! The line had to go higher than four for any Atlanta underdog money to hit the table.
We can summarize it this way:
Sharps LOVED San Francisco at -3
Sharps still bet San Francisco at -3.5
Sharps stopped betting San Francisco at -4
Some sharps did bet Atlanta when some stores moved higher than the four
We’ve told you often in the past about how much support it takes to move off the key number of three, and then to STAY off it. That support was obviously here. Sharps liked the Niners. And, the square betting public in Vegas that is heavily influenced by San Francisco fandom was also part of the mix. If you’ve never been to Las Vegas on an NFL Sunday, you may not realize that it’s 49ers and Raiders country (the two California teams). Sportsbooks knew they’d be battling square money on the Niners…they didn’t properly anticipate how much the sharps were going to like San Francisco in this spot too.
The total was bet Over the opener, and has been as high as 49.5 or 50 in places before the math guys started betting some Unders (the public typically bets Overs, especially in domes, so the draw back had to come from sharp action). It’s safe to say that sharps like Over 47 and 48, but Under 49.5 and 50. Since there’s no chance for weather to influence the game, any line moves between now and kickoff will be from a tug-of-war from square and sharp total action.

BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND
Opening Line: New England by 9, total of 51
Current Line: New England by 8, total of 51
The move downward surprised many people, because the tendency would be for sharps to wait until the public loaded up on the dynasty favorite before jumping on the dog. Maybe this line would go up right away because of position-taking, or from the faction of sharps who liked New England getting in early. Maybe it would freeze as dog lovers waited for the best number in a scenario where there weren’t any sharps who liked the Pats. But, going DOWN?
When early square action came in on the big dog Baltimore, both sharps and oddsmakers had to change their plans. Sharps bet right away instead of waiting because +9 was probably the best they were going to see. Sharps had to lower the lines to encourage New England money right away after this square surprise.
Those of you who have been with us through this season, or through past seasons, know that sportsbooks HATE dropping a big favorite into teaser territory. New England at -8 (or -8.5) can be used in two-team teasers at a number below a field goal now. We’ve talked often about how sportsbooks will purposely leave a line at nine just to avoid inviting teasers. Baltimore action was so heavy that oddsmakers decided they had to live with New England teasers with the Pats at -2 or -2.5. This is a significant development.
Let’s summarize the sharp action this way:
*Sharps like Baltimore a lot at +9 or better
*Sharps still like Baltimore at +8.5
*Sharps stopped betting Baltimore when the line +8 and started focusing on NE teasers
*Sharps have not yet found a number that made them bet New England straight
There’s still plenty of time between our standard Friday publication and kickoff. Maybe some surprises are still ahead. And, maybe there will be a flood of weekend money on the Patriots that would push the line back up to nine or higher.
On the total, things have centered very solidly on the 51. Any stores that moved off that number saw action immediately bring it back. This is an outdoor game in the North, which means there’s time for weather to create a sharp surge on the Under. Squares typically bet Overs, and would probably do so here unless the weather is bad. Remember that all four games last week went Over their totals by double digits (landing on 73, 76, 58, and 69).
Some of you may be wondering…who would sharps use WITH New England -2 or -2.5 in their two-team teasers? After all, there are only two games on the schedule, and sharps typically don’t use Over/Unders in teasers because of the volatility.
There’s not an obviously ideal second choice. We’ve heard from our sources that New England -2 or -2.5 might be paired with any of the following:
*With Under 57 on the Balt/NE total if weather becomes a factor
*With over 45 on the Balt/NE total if weather isn’t going to be a factor
*With Atlanta +10 because it crosses the key number of 7 and at least lands on a lesser key number
*A temporary blank, meaning the second team will be filled in during the Super Bowl if there’s an ideal choice based on the price. Some stores offer open-ended teasers.