Kentucky At Risk Of Missing Tourney

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Kentucky at risk of missing tourney

By Joe Lunardi
ESPN INSIDER
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We can no longer ignore the elephant in the room: The Kentucky Wildcats, defending NCAA champions and the model of new-age success in college basketball, could miss the 2013 tournament. Really.

Those still reading need to at least face the possibility of sweating out Selection Sunday. The Wildcats are simply good, not great, and enter the heart of the season a long way from their accustomed "lock" status as an NCAA tournament team and Final Four regular.

In fact, the Wildcats are closer to missing the tournament entirely than to playing in April.

Here are several reasons why Kentucky is in danger of missing the 2013 NCAA tournament:
<offer>• Kentucky sits at No. 42 on our latest S-Curve. This is probably a bit generous, based more on recent history and potential than actual accomplishment. Regardless, that position means the Wildcats were just one spot away from a First Four game in our latest bracket. Only the Dayton business community would be happy with that outcome, I suspect.

• The Wildcats are 1-1 in early SEC play and needed a disputed bucket to escape Vanderbilt before being outclassed at home by Texas A&M. With four of their next six games away from Rupp Arena, there's every chance the Wildcats will hit the halfway mark of their league schedule not much better than .500 in the SEC. In a fairly weak conference, they'll need to be well above that by March.

• A week ago, UK was on my list of national leaders in "fake wins." Of the Wildcats' 10 victories this season, just two -- Maryland (in Brooklyn) and at Vanderbilt -- have come over non-guarantee opponents. That means a 10-5 record for the Wildcats, which is already borderline, is more like a 2-5 record in the eyes of the selection committee. There's a ton of work to do in a conference that suddenly presents more opportunities for "bad" losses than it does "good" wins.

• The RPI, typically so kind to Kentucky, is heading the opposite direction in 2013. UK's current number is 68 and, worse, the best RPI calculators have the Wildcats landing no better than the low 50s two months from now. Without a couple of serious NCAA-level wins on its résumé, Kentucky is going to generate lots of bubble talk with that kind of profile.

The bottom line is that UK's season is going to come down to four SEC games: at Ole Miss (Jan. 29), at Florida (Feb. 12), home versus Missouri (Feb. 23) and the Florida rematch at Rupp Arena (March 9). A split of those contests should be enough, and most Kentucky teams would have little trouble hitting that mark.

But this Kentucky team has played only four comparable games all season. And all four -- a neutral-site game against Duke, at Notre Dame, home versus Baylor and at Louisville -- were losses.

If pressed, I would bet on continued improvement for the young Wildcats and a single-digit NCAA seed. But this season there is little certainty with Kentucky, on or off the court.
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they'll be in....they'd have to collapse to not get in.....they simply have the pedigree, and even non-UK lovers like me, see the talent on the young team, and realize, they will only get better as the season goes on, and the committee will know come march they ARE one of the best 64 teams out there.....they'd have to go 7-9 or worse in the conference i think to not make it.....even 8-8 will put them at 17-12, and just a win or 2 in the sec tourney will get them in......and with the likes of Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi St, Auburn,Arkansas and South Carolina in their conference, they'll find those 8 wins........only other real good teams are Mizzou, Tex A-M and Florida.....Ole Miss is ok, the others are bad, and KY will rack up needed wins against those teams.....
 

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1/22/13:

Nick Jacobs scored 14 points on 6-of-9 shooting and streaking Alabama beat Kentucky 59-55 on Tuesday night for the Crimson Tide's fifth win in six games.The Tide (12-6, 4-1 Southeastern Conference) held Kentucky (12-6, 3-2) to a season-low scoring total, 22 points below its average.
 
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I hope Kentucky and North Carolina play in a play in game or as the not real people now call it "the first round". I absolutely hate that. They now call the true 1st round the 2nd round and the true 2nd round the 3rd round. Those people need to be handcuffed and tortured.
 

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http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...ntucky-loses-to-vandy-should-be-headed-to-nit

College Basketball<article><header>[h=1]Kentucky loses to Vandy, should be headed to NIT[/h]By Jeff Goodman | College Basketball Insider
<time class="storyDate" pubdate="" datetime="2013-03-16T01:46:56Z">March 15, 2013 9:46 pm ET</time>
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<figcaption>After losing to Vanderbilt, Kentucky is likely headed to the NIT. (USATSI)</figcaption> </figure>From the national title to the NIT. It could well be reality now for John Calipari and Big Blue Nation after the Kentucky Wildcats lost to Vanderbilt in the SEC quarterfinals.
Many of the bracket prognosticators, including our own Jerry Palm, had the Wildcats in the NCAA tournament after the team knocked off Missouri and Florida in the regular-season finale. Sure, Kentucky got blitzed at Tennessee, but that was the first game without Nerlens Noel. There was also no shame in the setback in Fayetteville against an Arkansas team that looks like a Final Four contender on its home court. Even the setback against Georgia in Athens could be justified.



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But there was no excuse for this one. Losing to this Vandy team, one that finished 16-16 overall and two games below the .500 mark in a paltry SEC conference.
I wanted to see Kentucky run the table in the SEC tournament as much as anyone in BBN. It would have put my colleague, Gary Parrish, on the losing end of a friendly wager and meant that Parrish's dome would have been bald come the Final Four in Atlanta. I also wanted to see the Cats in the Big Dance again. Let's face it: What's a more intriguing First Four matchup in Dayton: Saint Mary's against Alabama or Saint Mary's against Kentucky?
However, now this team doesn't deserve a spot in the field -- even in this year of the sup-bar bubble. Sure, there were a couple wins against Mizzou and Florida, but this team is just .500 without Noel in the lineup -- and was barely a bubble team with their star freshman big man. Florida and Missouri are the lone lock NCAA tournament teams that UK has taken care of this season.
This team really hasn't progressed this season. For every step forward, there's been a step back. Ryan Harrow remains a mediocre (at best) floor leader, Alex Poythress is soft and erratic and Archie Goodwin hasn't displayed the feel or toughness to be a go-to guy. Willie Cauley-Stein is big, strong and athletic, but he's also raw and a year or so away from being a star.

Honestly, no one wants to watch this Kentucky team anymore. It's painful for BBN and Calipari. Let's end the agony, and send these guys to the irrelevant tourney, the NIT. If I were Calipari, I'd decline the invite and end this season with some semblence of dignity rather than, say, losing to Stony Brook in the NIT.
This year's edition of young 'Cats has been a disappointment -- and will have to sweat it out on Sunday.
"The good news is everyone seems to be losing and I just hope we're the best of the bad," Calipari said after being knocked out of the SEC tourney.
That's just what we want to see in the NCAA tourney. The best of the bad. No, thanks

</article>
 

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I hope Kentucky and North Carolina play in a play in game or as the not real people now call it "the first round". I absolutely hate that. They now call the true 1st round the 2nd round and the true 2nd round the 3rd round. Those people need to be handcuffed and tortured.

+10
 

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Put them in the Play-In game against Western Kentucky.....Let's see if they can beat them first....That would be more intriguing plus possibly more embarassing LOL
 

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I hope Kentucky and North Carolina play in a play in game or as the not real people now call it "the first round". I absolutely hate that. They now call the true 1st round the 2nd round and the true 2nd round the 3rd round. Those people need to be handcuffed and tortured.

Calling the round of 64 the second round is BS. I personally don't care for "play in game" as I feel those team are in the NCAA tournament, especially since they don't put the eight lowest seeded teams in the "play in" games. I think something like "opening round" "round of 68" would be fine, then keep calling the old first round the first round, etc.
 

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Calling the round of 64 the second round is BS. I personally don't care for "play in game" as I feel those team are in the NCAA tournament, especially since they don't put the eight lowest seeded teams in the "play in" games. I think something like "opening round" "round of 68" would be fine, then keep calling the old first round the first round, etc.

This is the dumbest thing I've ever seen in big time sports. How the NCAA thought that inviting 4 more teams in is mind-boggling. All that means is that teams ranked 69-72 are the next in line to claim they have a right to be in over this team or that.

Lets see if Commitee has balls to eject Ky from dance - I would bet they don't. You just know the Lexington aristocracy is already at their front door bearing gifts
 

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I hope Kentucky and North Carolina play in a play in game or as the not real people now call it "the first round". I absolutely hate that. They now call the true 1st round the 2nd round and the true 2nd round the 3rd round. Those people need to be handcuffed and tortured.



why are you putting north carolina with kentucky conversation?? north carolina was never in doubt of being in the tournament but kentucky was......use somebody else ,not north carolina
 

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So far the bubble teams have caught some breaks with St Mary's and Temple blowing their chances. The A-10 was looking at the possibilty of 5 teams but now it looks like 3.

In Kentucky's case they really need Florida to win the SEC tourny , imo ole miss , alabama , and vandy dont have the resume to get an at large bid , but if any one of them get the auto bid it will likely knock ky out.
 

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i think ole miss is in now
 

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Kentucky should be out.

You never quite know what these committee people will do though
 

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So far the bubble teams have caught some breaks with St Mary's and Temple blowing their chances. The A-10 was looking at the possibilty of 5 teams but now it looks like 3.

In Kentucky's case they really need Florida to win the SEC tourny , imo ole miss , alabama , and vandy dont have the resume to get an at large bid , but if any one of them get the auto bid it will likely knock ky out.

Not to mention Southern Miss choking in Double OT to Memphis today...:ohno:

Bubble magic.
 

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Kentucky is a big draw and will set out whatever arena they are in. Look to where the $$$ are. I bet them to make the field @ +360 at 5dimes.
 

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