[h=1]Can LeBron James catch Kareem?[/h][h=3]It's possible but not likely for James to be all-time scoring leader[/h]By Tom Haberstroh | ESPN Insider
Oddly enough, LeBron James is on the brink of not one, but two career milestones ahead of Wednesday night's matchup against the Golden State Warriors.
He is 18 points away from scoring 20,000 points for his career and two assists shy of the 5,000-assist threshold.
Even though the assist total might be more impressive, let's tackle the scoring feat. If he scores at least 18 points, James will become the youngest player ever to reach 20,000 points at age 28 and 17 days, which would be quicker by over a year than Kobe Bryant's previous mark when he did it at 29 years and 122 days. That's a pretty sizable head start.
Not bad for a guy who isn't known as a scorer first and foremost. To put it in perspective, fellow 2003 draft classmate Carmelo Anthony trails James by 3,178 points on the career ledger even though many regard Anthony as the superior scorer. James has often said that he's not overtly trying to rack up scoring totals, yet he's done it better than anybody at his age in the history of the game.
It's hard to believe that James just turned 28 a couple of weeks ago yet has more points than Hall of Famers Kevin McHale, Chris Mullin, Magic Johnson and Scottie Pippen each did in their entire careers.
James has a sizable head start if he wants to catch Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's scoring record, and the NBA's reigning MVP still has a ways to go. It's worth stressing that James and Bryant both came straight out of high school, but James will have reached 20,000 about 15 months ahead of Bryant and the rest of the field.
[h=3]Can he get there?[/h]
It's certainly possible, but not likely.
<offer>The key is that Abdul-Jabbar was 42 years old when he retired from the NBA and remained a big-time scorer right up until his final act. Abdul-Jabbar scored an incredible 10,299 points after his age-35 season, which is more than what Michael Jordan, Shaquille O'Neal and Steve Nash had combined after that point.
James has a lot of miles on those tires. He has played 840 games in his NBA career in the regular season and postseason combined, but that doesn't count All-Star Games, preseason games and Olympic play. It's probably closer to 1,000 games when it's all tallied up. It's worth pointing out that Bryant and Kevin Garnett, both preps-to-pros players like James, logged more regular-season games under their belt at this age than James. And more interestingly, they're still going strong.
The conventional wisdom is that those who came out of high school will fall off faster because of all the miles they've racked up at an early age. But Bryant is 34 and remains on pace to be the NBA's scoring leader this season with 29.9 points per game -- his highest average since he was James' age of 28 in 2006-07 (31.6 points per game). The 36-year-old Garnett has hovered consistently around 15 points per game for the past five seasons, though he has missed an average of 11 games per season over that time.
In order to reach Abdul-Jabbar, James would have to score 18,405 more points, which would require him to maintain his remarkable record of health. James has played in at least 75 games in every season of his career, with the exception of the lockout-shortened season of yesteryear (missing only four games last season). When it comes to catching Abdul-Jabbar, every game will count.
If we make the assumption that James scores 26 points per game (his current rate) in 75 games this season, he'll finish his age-28 season with 20,996 points. To see how likely it is that James will pass Abdul-Jabbar, let's use some actual scoring numbers of his historical peers, both in scoring and age.
For example, if James finishes with the same number of points that Jordan did after his age-28 season, he'll finish with 34,288 points, which is about 4,000 points short of the record. James will need to do better (and stick to basketball). Here are the numbers, if we combined James' career scoring total through age-28 with other scoring legends:
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]LeBron with late careers of:[/h]
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<!-- end inline 2 -->Here we see the extremes for James. It's funny seeing Karl Malone at the top, because James is oft-compared to Malone in size. Though James has a completely different playing style and career up to this point, it's fascinating to wonder if James can pair Malone's size with Malone's longevity. If he can, James would win the all-time scoring crown -- with room to spare.
But then there's the case of Tracy McGrady. As another high-scoring player who skipped college, you could say that McGrady is the worst-case scenario for James. At the time, no one saw McGrady having an abbreviated career after he ranked fifth all-time in scoring through age-28, but he was out of the league four seasons later and finished with just 18,381 points (if his playing days are indeed over).
If James averages 25 points per game and plays 75 games per season, James would need to play 10 seasons at that rate after this season, which would take him up to his 38th birthday. That seems like a tall task, especially when you consider that Malone averaged 24.5 points during ages 29-through-40. That's roughly what it would take.
James is a physical specimen with an unprecedented scoring pace that gives him as good of a shot at taking Abdul-Jabbar's throne as any player we've seen. Still, the odds aren't in his favor, as we've seen with all the other scoring legends; you need a lot of luck and durability to get there. Skill won't cut it alone.
James has an outside shot at being the all-time scoring leader. If he eventually ends up reaching the elusive 40,000-point plateau, he might have company soon. Right, Kevin Durant?
</offer>
Oddly enough, LeBron James is on the brink of not one, but two career milestones ahead of Wednesday night's matchup against the Golden State Warriors.
He is 18 points away from scoring 20,000 points for his career and two assists shy of the 5,000-assist threshold.
Even though the assist total might be more impressive, let's tackle the scoring feat. If he scores at least 18 points, James will become the youngest player ever to reach 20,000 points at age 28 and 17 days, which would be quicker by over a year than Kobe Bryant's previous mark when he did it at 29 years and 122 days. That's a pretty sizable head start.
Not bad for a guy who isn't known as a scorer first and foremost. To put it in perspective, fellow 2003 draft classmate Carmelo Anthony trails James by 3,178 points on the career ledger even though many regard Anthony as the superior scorer. James has often said that he's not overtly trying to rack up scoring totals, yet he's done it better than anybody at his age in the history of the game.
It's hard to believe that James just turned 28 a couple of weeks ago yet has more points than Hall of Famers Kevin McHale, Chris Mullin, Magic Johnson and Scottie Pippen each did in their entire careers.
James has a sizable head start if he wants to catch Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's scoring record, and the NBA's reigning MVP still has a ways to go. It's worth stressing that James and Bryant both came straight out of high school, but James will have reached 20,000 about 15 months ahead of Bryant and the rest of the field.
[h=3]Can he get there?[/h]
It's certainly possible, but not likely.
<offer>The key is that Abdul-Jabbar was 42 years old when he retired from the NBA and remained a big-time scorer right up until his final act. Abdul-Jabbar scored an incredible 10,299 points after his age-35 season, which is more than what Michael Jordan, Shaquille O'Neal and Steve Nash had combined after that point.
James has a lot of miles on those tires. He has played 840 games in his NBA career in the regular season and postseason combined, but that doesn't count All-Star Games, preseason games and Olympic play. It's probably closer to 1,000 games when it's all tallied up. It's worth pointing out that Bryant and Kevin Garnett, both preps-to-pros players like James, logged more regular-season games under their belt at this age than James. And more interestingly, they're still going strong.
The conventional wisdom is that those who came out of high school will fall off faster because of all the miles they've racked up at an early age. But Bryant is 34 and remains on pace to be the NBA's scoring leader this season with 29.9 points per game -- his highest average since he was James' age of 28 in 2006-07 (31.6 points per game). The 36-year-old Garnett has hovered consistently around 15 points per game for the past five seasons, though he has missed an average of 11 games per season over that time.
In order to reach Abdul-Jabbar, James would have to score 18,405 more points, which would require him to maintain his remarkable record of health. James has played in at least 75 games in every season of his career, with the exception of the lockout-shortened season of yesteryear (missing only four games last season). When it comes to catching Abdul-Jabbar, every game will count.
If we make the assumption that James scores 26 points per game (his current rate) in 75 games this season, he'll finish his age-28 season with 20,996 points. To see how likely it is that James will pass Abdul-Jabbar, let's use some actual scoring numbers of his historical peers, both in scoring and age.
For example, if James finishes with the same number of points that Jordan did after his age-28 season, he'll finish with 34,288 points, which is about 4,000 points short of the record. James will need to do better (and stick to basketball). Here are the numbers, if we combined James' career scoring total through age-28 with other scoring legends:
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]LeBron with late careers of:[/h]
| Player | Points | Above/below record |
|---|---|---|
| Karl Malone | 43,154 | 4,767 above |
| Kareem Abdul-Jabbar | 42,897 | 4,510 above |
| Alex English | 38,881 | 494 above |
| John Havlicek | 36,743 | 1,644 below |
| Reggie Miller | 35,396 | 2,991 below |
| Michael Jordan | 34,288 | 4,099 below |
| Wilt Chamberlain | 33,578 | 4,809 below |
| Larry Bird | 31,470 | 6,917 below |
| Oscar Robertson | 31,296 | 7,091 below |
| Tracy McGrady | 22,633 | 15,754 below |
<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>
<!-- end inline 2 -->Here we see the extremes for James. It's funny seeing Karl Malone at the top, because James is oft-compared to Malone in size. Though James has a completely different playing style and career up to this point, it's fascinating to wonder if James can pair Malone's size with Malone's longevity. If he can, James would win the all-time scoring crown -- with room to spare.
But then there's the case of Tracy McGrady. As another high-scoring player who skipped college, you could say that McGrady is the worst-case scenario for James. At the time, no one saw McGrady having an abbreviated career after he ranked fifth all-time in scoring through age-28, but he was out of the league four seasons later and finished with just 18,381 points (if his playing days are indeed over).
If James averages 25 points per game and plays 75 games per season, James would need to play 10 seasons at that rate after this season, which would take him up to his 38th birthday. That seems like a tall task, especially when you consider that Malone averaged 24.5 points during ages 29-through-40. That's roughly what it would take.
James is a physical specimen with an unprecedented scoring pace that gives him as good of a shot at taking Abdul-Jabbar's throne as any player we've seen. Still, the odds aren't in his favor, as we've seen with all the other scoring legends; you need a lot of luck and durability to get there. Skill won't cut it alone.
James has an outside shot at being the all-time scoring leader. If he eventually ends up reaching the elusive 40,000-point plateau, he might have company soon. Right, Kevin Durant?
</offer>
