WRs: 2012 review, plus 2013 preview/ranks
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
For the second consecutive season, the No. 2 wide receiver in ESPN standard fantasy leagues scored 210 points. Congrats to Brandon Marshall on the accomplishment this season. Of course, one wideout managed to beat Marshall in scoring, and it's the same one who beat Jordy Nelson of the Green Bay Packers in 2011. Hmm, who could this dominant wide receiver be? It won't come as much of a surprise; again, the more pertinent question surrounds the rest of the top-five, top-10, top-whatever choices at the position, not the first fellow.
Wide receiver is deep, just as it always has been -- certainly in relation to running back -- and myriad choices stepped up during the 2012 season to claim top-10 consideration. While the Chicago Bears' Marshall ultimately finished second in position scoring in standard formats, he has company in the top-5 conversation. With quarterback and running back recaps/previews in the rear view mirror, let's tackle wide receivers.
<offer>Wide receiver MVP: OK, so Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions is pretty good. We get it. But he was also a first-round pick in most leagues, and unlike the 2011 season, he finished outside the overall top 20 scorers. Disappointing season? Well, he did score 40 fewer points, mainly thanks to being unlucky in the touchdown department. Yes, he broke the league mark for receiving yards in a season, but 29 other wide receivers caught more than his five touchdowns, including Santana Moss. So it is that Reggie Wayne of the Indianapolis Colts edges out the Denver Broncos' Eric Decker for the MVP nod. Wayne was a 10th-round pick in ESPN average live drafts, a forgotten older player who was certainly not close to done. Andrew Luck made Wayne his top target and Wayne responded by producing nearly the exact same numbers from his final year playing alongside Peyton Manning in 2010. Meanwhile, Decker was the only one of the top 13 wide receiver scorers this season who wasn't selected among the top 20 in ADP. Yep, there was no real stunning out-of-nowhere Victor Cruz-like performance. Decker was an eighth-round pick, 28th at the position, but he finished tied with Andre Johnson for eighth in WR scoring and finished second only to James Jones of the Packers in receiving touchdowns.</offer>
[h=3]My top 50 WRs for 2013[/h]First tier (mid-Round 1)
1.Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
Second tier (Round 2)
2. Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears
3. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
4. A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
5. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
6. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
7. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
Third tier (Round 3)
8. Roddy White, Falcons
9. Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. Wes Welker, New England Patriots
11. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings
12. Eric Decker, Broncos
Fourth tier (Rounds 3-4)
13. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints
14. Victor Cruz, New York Giants
15. Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
16. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
17. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers
18. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts
Fifth tier (Rounds 4-5)
19. Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins
20. Jordy Nelson, Packers
21. Greg Jennings, Packers
22. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
23. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers
Sixth tier (Rounds 5 and beyond)
24. Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers
25. Danario Alexander, SD Chargers
26. Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars
27. T.Y. Hilton, Colts
28. Steve Johnson, Buffalo Bills
29. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs
30. Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens
31. Brandon Lloyd, Patriots
32. Miles Austin, Cowboys
33. James Jones, Packers
34. Lance Moore, Saints
35. Mike Williams, Buccaneers
36. Antonio Brown, Steelers
37. Justin Blackmon, Jaguars
38. Danny Amendola, St. Louis Rams
39. Sidney Rice, Seattle Seahawks
40. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles
41. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
42. Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns
43. Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans
44. Vincent Brown, Chargers
45. Denarius Moore, Oakland Raiders
46. Brian Hartline, Miami Dolphins
47. Kendall Wright, Titans
48. Chris Givens, Rams
49. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
50. Santonio Holmes, New York Jets
Just missed: Brandon LaFell, Panthers; Golden Tate, Seahawks; Andre Roberts, Cardinals; Michael Floyd, Cardinals; Jarius Wright, Vikings; Alshon Jeffery, Bears.
Wide receiver LVP: A year ago, Arizona Cardinals stud Larry Fitzgerald showed up in the "biggest misconception" section because he overcame poor quarterback play to deliver another standout season. In 2012, the quarterback play got even worse, and Fitzgerald was ultimately outscored by teammate Andre Roberts and 38 other wide receivers. That's terrible. Fitzgerald went from 181 standard points to 99, and was the third wide receiver off the draft board. We beg the Cardinals to acquire a suitable quarterback. Honorable mention goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers' Mike Wallace and the New York Giants' Hakeem Nicks, both top-10 choices on draft day who certainly disappointed, as well as Brandon Lloyd of the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs' Dwayne Bowe. Lloyd saw plenty of targets (17th-most) but needed a big December just to crack the top 30 in scoring. Bowe didn't top seven fantasy points after Week 4, and his outstanding 2010 campaign (15 touchdowns!) seems miles away.
Biggest surprises: For much of the season the league's worst offense was in Jacksonville, with poor quarterback play and a conga line of underwhelming running backs. But don't blame wide receiver Cecil Shorts. Before the team's bye week in October, the Jaguars announced Shorts, who caught two passes as a rookie the year before, would see more opportunities. He did and he thrived, reaching double digits in fantasy points six times in seven weeks and nine times for the season. That was the same number of times No. 3 wide receiver scorer Dez Bryant did it. Other surprises included the Packers' James Jones and Randall Cobb, T.Y. Hilton leading all rookie wide receivers in fantasy scoring, San Diego Chargers touchdown machine Danario Alexander emerging and Tampa Bay's Mike Williams bouncing back with similar numbers from his outstanding rookie season of 2010.
Biggest misconception: Well, it sure isn't Larry Fitzgerald anymore. Five sets of teammate wide receivers ended up among the top-20 scorers, precisely half the list, so let's go there. Certainly it takes strong quarterback play to produce this, so kudos to Denver's Peyton Manning, Atlanta's Matt Ryan, Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, the Saints' Drew Brees and yep, Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman for making it happen. Fantasy owners weren't scared off from drafting Roddy White, and that proved to be a good thing. For 2013 drafts, don't presume a team's No. 2 wide receiver can't succeed if the situation seems crowded. Knowing how good Luck is, for example, could a pair of Colts crack the top 20?
Youngsters to watch: More Jaguars! Exceptionally talented Justin Blackmon was the first rookie wide receiver off the real-life draft board, and after a quiet first half of the season, he exploded for 236 receiving yards and 29 fantasy points in Week 11, and he closed well in December, too. We could bestow the credit on backup quarterback Chad Henne, but Blackmon's emergence isn't a surprise. He should continue to emerge. Fellow first-round rookies Michael Floyd (Cardinals) and Kendall Wright (Tennessee Titans) could also use better quarterback play, and each should improve in 2013.
Veterans to watch: Several once-productive wide receivers could end up on new teams, led by Jennings, Wallace and Bowe, but the Patriots' Wes Welker comes off his fifth 100-reception season out of six, and certainly if he were to split from quarterback Tom Brady, it would make fantasy owners question his future value. It will also be interesting to see if Jordy Nelson can recapture his 2011 glory -- when he scored 15 touchdowns -- now that Cobb and Jones have emerged.
Keeper notes: With so many of the top wide receivers performing up to expectations, and so many new stars emerging during the scene, it makes it tougher to justify keeping players from this position due to the crazy depth. As it is, check the top 50 rankings and you'll see some interesting names didn't make it. Put simply, you can't go wrong keeping one of the top 20 wide receivers, but you might find that the spot is better served with a running back.
What to watch in 2013 drafts: Detroit's Megatron is an obvious first-round pick, but the next tier of wide receivers is so deep, with numerous options for the No. 2 spot, that many fantasy owners might find themselves waiting for the run to start, then hope to be a part of it. After Round 2, you'll find plenty of supply to meet the demand, so much so that it's difficult to make home run picks at wide receiver when it comes to rookies or unheralded options.
[h=3]Five noteworthy WR stats of 20121. Five receivers caught 106 or more passes, which was four more than in 2011 and only one fewer than the total of players to do so from 2008-11 combined. All five of those players -- Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Marshall, Welker and Wayne -- had reached 100 receptions previously.
2. James Jones led all players in receiving touchdowns with 14, but 26 players caught more passes and 40 saw more than his 98 targets. A few of Jones' numbers bear strong resemblance to what teammate Jordy Nelson did in 2011, with four fewer receptions, one fewer touchdown and two more targets, but Nelson had nearly 500 more receiving yards.
3. The top six wide receivers in terms of targets averaged 186 standard fantasy points (Calvin Johnson, Wayne, Marshall, Welker, Andre Johnson, A.J. Green). The No. 7 wide receiver in targets was Fitzgerald, with 99 fantasy points.
4. The league leader in yards per reception was Vincent Jackson, but his 19.2 mark was the lowest to lead the league (among qualifiers) since 2007, when Santonio Holmes was No. 1. Second place in yards per catch this season was a tie between Shorts and Alexander at 17.8.
5. There were 36 wide receivers who caught 60 or more passes, and all of them scored three or more touchdowns except a pair of Dolphins, Brian Hartline and Davone Bess, who each scored one. Also, just one of the 77 wide receivers with more than 30 receptions failed to score: It was Jason Avant of the Philadelphia Eagles.
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Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
For the second consecutive season, the No. 2 wide receiver in ESPN standard fantasy leagues scored 210 points. Congrats to Brandon Marshall on the accomplishment this season. Of course, one wideout managed to beat Marshall in scoring, and it's the same one who beat Jordy Nelson of the Green Bay Packers in 2011. Hmm, who could this dominant wide receiver be? It won't come as much of a surprise; again, the more pertinent question surrounds the rest of the top-five, top-10, top-whatever choices at the position, not the first fellow.
Wide receiver is deep, just as it always has been -- certainly in relation to running back -- and myriad choices stepped up during the 2012 season to claim top-10 consideration. While the Chicago Bears' Marshall ultimately finished second in position scoring in standard formats, he has company in the top-5 conversation. With quarterback and running back recaps/previews in the rear view mirror, let's tackle wide receivers.
<offer>Wide receiver MVP: OK, so Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions is pretty good. We get it. But he was also a first-round pick in most leagues, and unlike the 2011 season, he finished outside the overall top 20 scorers. Disappointing season? Well, he did score 40 fewer points, mainly thanks to being unlucky in the touchdown department. Yes, he broke the league mark for receiving yards in a season, but 29 other wide receivers caught more than his five touchdowns, including Santana Moss. So it is that Reggie Wayne of the Indianapolis Colts edges out the Denver Broncos' Eric Decker for the MVP nod. Wayne was a 10th-round pick in ESPN average live drafts, a forgotten older player who was certainly not close to done. Andrew Luck made Wayne his top target and Wayne responded by producing nearly the exact same numbers from his final year playing alongside Peyton Manning in 2010. Meanwhile, Decker was the only one of the top 13 wide receiver scorers this season who wasn't selected among the top 20 in ADP. Yep, there was no real stunning out-of-nowhere Victor Cruz-like performance. Decker was an eighth-round pick, 28th at the position, but he finished tied with Andre Johnson for eighth in WR scoring and finished second only to James Jones of the Packers in receiving touchdowns.</offer>
[h=3]My top 50 WRs for 2013[/h]First tier (mid-Round 1)
1.Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
Second tier (Round 2)
2. Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears
3. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
4. A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
5. Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
6. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
7. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
Third tier (Round 3)
8. Roddy White, Falcons
9. Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. Wes Welker, New England Patriots
11. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings
12. Eric Decker, Broncos
Fourth tier (Rounds 3-4)
13. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints
14. Victor Cruz, New York Giants
15. Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
16. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
17. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers
18. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts
Fifth tier (Rounds 4-5)
19. Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins
20. Jordy Nelson, Packers
21. Greg Jennings, Packers
22. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
23. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers
Sixth tier (Rounds 5 and beyond)
24. Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers
25. Danario Alexander, SD Chargers
26. Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars
27. T.Y. Hilton, Colts
28. Steve Johnson, Buffalo Bills
29. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs
30. Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens
31. Brandon Lloyd, Patriots
32. Miles Austin, Cowboys
33. James Jones, Packers
34. Lance Moore, Saints
35. Mike Williams, Buccaneers
36. Antonio Brown, Steelers
37. Justin Blackmon, Jaguars
38. Danny Amendola, St. Louis Rams
39. Sidney Rice, Seattle Seahawks
40. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles
41. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
42. Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns
43. Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans
44. Vincent Brown, Chargers
45. Denarius Moore, Oakland Raiders
46. Brian Hartline, Miami Dolphins
47. Kendall Wright, Titans
48. Chris Givens, Rams
49. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
50. Santonio Holmes, New York Jets
Just missed: Brandon LaFell, Panthers; Golden Tate, Seahawks; Andre Roberts, Cardinals; Michael Floyd, Cardinals; Jarius Wright, Vikings; Alshon Jeffery, Bears.
Wide receiver LVP: A year ago, Arizona Cardinals stud Larry Fitzgerald showed up in the "biggest misconception" section because he overcame poor quarterback play to deliver another standout season. In 2012, the quarterback play got even worse, and Fitzgerald was ultimately outscored by teammate Andre Roberts and 38 other wide receivers. That's terrible. Fitzgerald went from 181 standard points to 99, and was the third wide receiver off the draft board. We beg the Cardinals to acquire a suitable quarterback. Honorable mention goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers' Mike Wallace and the New York Giants' Hakeem Nicks, both top-10 choices on draft day who certainly disappointed, as well as Brandon Lloyd of the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs' Dwayne Bowe. Lloyd saw plenty of targets (17th-most) but needed a big December just to crack the top 30 in scoring. Bowe didn't top seven fantasy points after Week 4, and his outstanding 2010 campaign (15 touchdowns!) seems miles away.
Biggest surprises: For much of the season the league's worst offense was in Jacksonville, with poor quarterback play and a conga line of underwhelming running backs. But don't blame wide receiver Cecil Shorts. Before the team's bye week in October, the Jaguars announced Shorts, who caught two passes as a rookie the year before, would see more opportunities. He did and he thrived, reaching double digits in fantasy points six times in seven weeks and nine times for the season. That was the same number of times No. 3 wide receiver scorer Dez Bryant did it. Other surprises included the Packers' James Jones and Randall Cobb, T.Y. Hilton leading all rookie wide receivers in fantasy scoring, San Diego Chargers touchdown machine Danario Alexander emerging and Tampa Bay's Mike Williams bouncing back with similar numbers from his outstanding rookie season of 2010.
Biggest misconception: Well, it sure isn't Larry Fitzgerald anymore. Five sets of teammate wide receivers ended up among the top-20 scorers, precisely half the list, so let's go there. Certainly it takes strong quarterback play to produce this, so kudos to Denver's Peyton Manning, Atlanta's Matt Ryan, Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, the Saints' Drew Brees and yep, Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman for making it happen. Fantasy owners weren't scared off from drafting Roddy White, and that proved to be a good thing. For 2013 drafts, don't presume a team's No. 2 wide receiver can't succeed if the situation seems crowded. Knowing how good Luck is, for example, could a pair of Colts crack the top 20?
Youngsters to watch: More Jaguars! Exceptionally talented Justin Blackmon was the first rookie wide receiver off the real-life draft board, and after a quiet first half of the season, he exploded for 236 receiving yards and 29 fantasy points in Week 11, and he closed well in December, too. We could bestow the credit on backup quarterback Chad Henne, but Blackmon's emergence isn't a surprise. He should continue to emerge. Fellow first-round rookies Michael Floyd (Cardinals) and Kendall Wright (Tennessee Titans) could also use better quarterback play, and each should improve in 2013.
Veterans to watch: Several once-productive wide receivers could end up on new teams, led by Jennings, Wallace and Bowe, but the Patriots' Wes Welker comes off his fifth 100-reception season out of six, and certainly if he were to split from quarterback Tom Brady, it would make fantasy owners question his future value. It will also be interesting to see if Jordy Nelson can recapture his 2011 glory -- when he scored 15 touchdowns -- now that Cobb and Jones have emerged.
Keeper notes: With so many of the top wide receivers performing up to expectations, and so many new stars emerging during the scene, it makes it tougher to justify keeping players from this position due to the crazy depth. As it is, check the top 50 rankings and you'll see some interesting names didn't make it. Put simply, you can't go wrong keeping one of the top 20 wide receivers, but you might find that the spot is better served with a running back.
What to watch in 2013 drafts: Detroit's Megatron is an obvious first-round pick, but the next tier of wide receivers is so deep, with numerous options for the No. 2 spot, that many fantasy owners might find themselves waiting for the run to start, then hope to be a part of it. After Round 2, you'll find plenty of supply to meet the demand, so much so that it's difficult to make home run picks at wide receiver when it comes to rookies or unheralded options.
[h=3]Five noteworthy WR stats of 20121. Five receivers caught 106 or more passes, which was four more than in 2011 and only one fewer than the total of players to do so from 2008-11 combined. All five of those players -- Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Marshall, Welker and Wayne -- had reached 100 receptions previously.
2. James Jones led all players in receiving touchdowns with 14, but 26 players caught more passes and 40 saw more than his 98 targets. A few of Jones' numbers bear strong resemblance to what teammate Jordy Nelson did in 2011, with four fewer receptions, one fewer touchdown and two more targets, but Nelson had nearly 500 more receiving yards.
3. The top six wide receivers in terms of targets averaged 186 standard fantasy points (Calvin Johnson, Wayne, Marshall, Welker, Andre Johnson, A.J. Green). The No. 7 wide receiver in targets was Fitzgerald, with 99 fantasy points.
4. The league leader in yards per reception was Vincent Jackson, but his 19.2 mark was the lowest to lead the league (among qualifiers) since 2007, when Santonio Holmes was No. 1. Second place in yards per catch this season was a tie between Shorts and Alexander at 17.8.
5. There were 36 wide receivers who caught 60 or more passes, and all of them scored three or more touchdowns except a pair of Dolphins, Brian Hartline and Davone Bess, who each scored one. Also, just one of the 77 wide receivers with more than 30 receptions failed to score: It was Jason Avant of the Philadelphia Eagles.
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