Which long shots have most value?
Pittsburgh, Wisconsin and Gonzaga might make good wagers
By Jeff Haley | TeamRankings.com
ESPN INSIDER
In 1985, coach Rollie Massimino's Villanova Wildcats were the longest of long shots. After finishing the Big East regular season and tournament with a combined record of 19-10 and spending most of the season outside of the AP Top 25, the Wildcats entered the NCAA tournament as an 8-seed.
Over the next two and a half weeks, Villanova went on a thrilling run, ending in a two-point victory over Patrick Ewing and the Georgetown Hoyas to claim the NCAA title.
Everyone loves the underdog, and NCAA championship futures give bettors a way to try to profit from the next Villanova. Using the same technology and analytical methods that we explained in our first article on 2013 futures odds values, we set out to find current long shot teams that appear to offer the most value (or at least to be close enough to a fair bet) for bettors who are comfortable with high risk and willing to search for the best price in the market. Just remember that odds can and will change over time, so value highlighted today could be gone by next week.
For those unfamiliar with futures betting, keep in mind that betting value has nothing to do with how good or bad a team is in an absolute sense. It simply refers to whether current betting odds underestimate a team's actual chances of making a storybook run to an NCAA title.
<offer>Pittsburgh Panthers
Offshore odds: 50-1 to 80-1 | TeamRankings odds: 35-1
Strangely unnoticed by the national media as a 17-5 team, Pittsburgh registered only a single vote for inclusion in last week's AP poll. AP voters place the Panthers much lower than do most computer predictive systems; the TeamRankings.com predictive ratings currently rank Pitt as the eighth-best team in college basketball, while other popular numerical ratings systems place coach Jamie Dixon & Co. similarly high.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->Pitt not seedless
<tbody>
</tbody>Overall NCAA tournament win odds, assuming a bid: 2.8 percent
<!-- end inline 2 -->Pitt ranks so highly in our system primarily because it has whipped its opponents this year. Pitt also plays well at both ends of the court. Last season, the Panthers' problems were caused by a surprisingly mediocre defense. Dixon's team couldn't protect the basket, as demonstrated by opponents' 49 percent field goal percentage on 2-point shots and 65 percent shooting percentage on attempts at the rim. This year, with 7-foot freshman Steven Adams patrolling the paint, the Panthers' defense is again one of the best in the nation. The Panthers' opponents this year have made just 44 percent of their 2s and 55 percent of their layups and dunks.
Despite flying under the radar so far, our system projects Pitt as a virtual lock to make the NCAA tournament, with a 97 percent overall chance of a bid. At 20 percent, the Panthers' chance to snag an automatic bid by winning the Big East tournament isn't all that great, but it's not horrible either, and their projected résumé looks extremely solid for an at-large bid otherwise. So for a relative long shot, Pitt seems to be at very little risk of not getting the opportunity to make a Cinderella run come March.
At that point, seeding becomes the primary factor in determining how likely it would be for the Panthers to shock the college hoops world. While our model predicts Pitt will most likely be a No. 6 seed, it also projects around a 1-in-6 chance of grabbing a No. 3 seed or better. At the high end of that range, Pitt's odds to win it all could be as high as 20-to-1. (The table above lists out how Pitt's championship odds currently project by future NCAA tournament seed.) Given available betting odds as high as 80-to-1, the current risk/reward tradeoff of a bet on Pitt to win it all looks compelling.
<center>
</center>Wisconsin Badgers
Offshore odds: 40-1 to 100-1 | TeamRankings odds: 76-1
It was easy to disregard coach Bo Ryan's team when lead guard Josh Gasser tore his ACL just before the start of the season, and it became even easier when the Badgers were blown out by Florida on Nov. 14. When losses against Creighton, Virginia and Marquette followed, Wisconsin dropped from the national spotlight entirely. Since that time, Wisconsin has bounced back, winning games in the tough Big Ten and handing Indiana its only home loss of the season so far.
This Wisconsin team plays the same way that Ryan's teams always play. On offense, the Badgers work at a plodding pace, shooting 3s and protecting the basketball; their 14.7 percent turnover rate is the lowest in the nation. On D, they do everything in their power to prevent opposing 3-point shots; this season Wisconsin opponents have taken just 24 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc, the fourth-lowest rate in D-I. Wisconsin opponents often settle for midrange jump shots, and when these shots miss, the Badgers limit second-chance attempts, with the 14th-highest defensive rebounding rate in the country.
[+] Enlarge
<cite>Greg Bartram/US Presswire</cite>Bo Ryan has turned his Badgers around after a slow start.
Wisconsin's brutal efficiency at both ends of the court results in a positive point differential of 12.9 points per game. That helps land the Badgers at No. 15 in our predictive power ratings, despite their early-season stumbles. The 18-point loss to Florida doesn't seem so bad anymore, either, having occurred on the road to a team that has now worked its way into the top position in both the TeamRankings.com and KenPom.com rankings. The combination of a strong predictive rating and a less-than-impressive win-loss record often signals Cinderella potential.
Our models project a wide range of possibilities for Wisconsin. On the downside, there remains a 6 percent chance that the Badgers will miss the tournament entirely, coming from a stacked Big Ten. However, the simulations also give Bo Ryan's team a 13 percent chance of taking a top-four seed, with the most likely position for the Badgers being a No. 8 seed. If the Badgers play well enough during the rest of the season to deliver on the top end of that range, they'd be a steal at current prices. Even factoring in all the possibilities, though, there still looks to be value with Wisconsin at a price of 80-to-1 or better.
<center>
</center>Gonzaga Bulldogs
Offshore odds: 20-1 to 25-1 | TeamRankings odds: 32-1
The presence of Gonzaga on this list highlights just how difficult it is to find betting value in championship futures odds, particularly when searching for long shot winners. Our models predict that at this point in the season, coach Mark Few's team is merely slightly less likely to win an NCAA tournament than the odds available from offshore books. After Pitt and Wisconsin, the Zags are the closest thing to a long shot value play that we can find.
Why is it so hard to find good long shot values? There are two reasons. The first one is obvious; it is not in the best interest of bookmakers to offer bettors amazing deals. The second is a little less obvious; while the NCAA tournament seems chaotic, championships are almost always won by one of the best few teams over the course of the season. Everyone loves to talk about deep runs by the likes of VCU and Butler in recent years, but there have been very few long shot winners -- e.g., 1985 Villanova -- in NCAA tournament history.
Our simulations help explain why. Even a team like Gonzaga, which currently ranks ninth in our tournament S-curve, projects with less than a 1-in-30 chance of winning it all, while heavier favorites like Florida and Indiana have championship odds of 1-in-4 and 1-in-6, respectively.
Still, Few does have his best team in five years and looks to be on track for a high tournament seed. Our models currently predict that the Zags most likely will capture a No. 2 or No. 3 seed, though a No. 1 seed is not out of the question (9 percent chance). If the Bulldogs snag a top seed, their chances of winning the tournament improve significantly. In that case, our model predicts that Gonzaga would have a 5 percent chance of winning it all, about equivalent to their current price in the futures market. But that's a best-case scenario.
At the very least, the Bulldogs seem a likely bet to have a deep tournament run, with our models predicting that the Zags have a 57 percent chance of making the Sweet 16, a 31 percent chance of playing in the Elite Eight, and a 15 percent chance of making the Final Four. In terms of a championship bet, though, Gonzaga looks like a value right now only if it can score at least a No. 2 seed, and the odds of that are less than 50/50 at this point -- although not much less.</offer>
Pittsburgh, Wisconsin and Gonzaga might make good wagers
By Jeff Haley | TeamRankings.com
ESPN INSIDER
In 1985, coach Rollie Massimino's Villanova Wildcats were the longest of long shots. After finishing the Big East regular season and tournament with a combined record of 19-10 and spending most of the season outside of the AP Top 25, the Wildcats entered the NCAA tournament as an 8-seed.
Over the next two and a half weeks, Villanova went on a thrilling run, ending in a two-point victory over Patrick Ewing and the Georgetown Hoyas to claim the NCAA title.
Everyone loves the underdog, and NCAA championship futures give bettors a way to try to profit from the next Villanova. Using the same technology and analytical methods that we explained in our first article on 2013 futures odds values, we set out to find current long shot teams that appear to offer the most value (or at least to be close enough to a fair bet) for bettors who are comfortable with high risk and willing to search for the best price in the market. Just remember that odds can and will change over time, so value highlighted today could be gone by next week.
For those unfamiliar with futures betting, keep in mind that betting value has nothing to do with how good or bad a team is in an absolute sense. It simply refers to whether current betting odds underestimate a team's actual chances of making a storybook run to an NCAA title.
<offer>Pittsburgh Panthers
Offshore odds: 50-1 to 80-1 | TeamRankings odds: 35-1
Strangely unnoticed by the national media as a 17-5 team, Pittsburgh registered only a single vote for inclusion in last week's AP poll. AP voters place the Panthers much lower than do most computer predictive systems; the TeamRankings.com predictive ratings currently rank Pitt as the eighth-best team in college basketball, while other popular numerical ratings systems place coach Jamie Dixon & Co. similarly high.
<!-- begin inline 2 -->Pitt not seedless
| Seed | % get seed | champ odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.0 | 5.9 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.4 |
| 3 | 10.6 | 4.4 |
| 4 | 12.2 | 3.3 |
| 5 | 12.7 | 2.9 |
| 6 | 13.4 | 2.6 |
| 7 | 12.6 | 2.2 |
| 8 | 10.2 | 1.7 |
| 9 | 7.5 | 1.7 |
| 10 | 5.2 | 1.5 |
| 11 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 12 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 13 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
<!-- end inline 2 -->Pitt ranks so highly in our system primarily because it has whipped its opponents this year. Pitt also plays well at both ends of the court. Last season, the Panthers' problems were caused by a surprisingly mediocre defense. Dixon's team couldn't protect the basket, as demonstrated by opponents' 49 percent field goal percentage on 2-point shots and 65 percent shooting percentage on attempts at the rim. This year, with 7-foot freshman Steven Adams patrolling the paint, the Panthers' defense is again one of the best in the nation. The Panthers' opponents this year have made just 44 percent of their 2s and 55 percent of their layups and dunks.
Despite flying under the radar so far, our system projects Pitt as a virtual lock to make the NCAA tournament, with a 97 percent overall chance of a bid. At 20 percent, the Panthers' chance to snag an automatic bid by winning the Big East tournament isn't all that great, but it's not horrible either, and their projected résumé looks extremely solid for an at-large bid otherwise. So for a relative long shot, Pitt seems to be at very little risk of not getting the opportunity to make a Cinderella run come March.
At that point, seeding becomes the primary factor in determining how likely it would be for the Panthers to shock the college hoops world. While our model predicts Pitt will most likely be a No. 6 seed, it also projects around a 1-in-6 chance of grabbing a No. 3 seed or better. At the high end of that range, Pitt's odds to win it all could be as high as 20-to-1. (The table above lists out how Pitt's championship odds currently project by future NCAA tournament seed.) Given available betting odds as high as 80-to-1, the current risk/reward tradeoff of a bet on Pitt to win it all looks compelling.
<center>
</center>Wisconsin Badgers
Offshore odds: 40-1 to 100-1 | TeamRankings odds: 76-1
It was easy to disregard coach Bo Ryan's team when lead guard Josh Gasser tore his ACL just before the start of the season, and it became even easier when the Badgers were blown out by Florida on Nov. 14. When losses against Creighton, Virginia and Marquette followed, Wisconsin dropped from the national spotlight entirely. Since that time, Wisconsin has bounced back, winning games in the tough Big Ten and handing Indiana its only home loss of the season so far.
This Wisconsin team plays the same way that Ryan's teams always play. On offense, the Badgers work at a plodding pace, shooting 3s and protecting the basketball; their 14.7 percent turnover rate is the lowest in the nation. On D, they do everything in their power to prevent opposing 3-point shots; this season Wisconsin opponents have taken just 24 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc, the fourth-lowest rate in D-I. Wisconsin opponents often settle for midrange jump shots, and when these shots miss, the Badgers limit second-chance attempts, with the 14th-highest defensive rebounding rate in the country.
[+] Enlarge
Wisconsin's brutal efficiency at both ends of the court results in a positive point differential of 12.9 points per game. That helps land the Badgers at No. 15 in our predictive power ratings, despite their early-season stumbles. The 18-point loss to Florida doesn't seem so bad anymore, either, having occurred on the road to a team that has now worked its way into the top position in both the TeamRankings.com and KenPom.com rankings. The combination of a strong predictive rating and a less-than-impressive win-loss record often signals Cinderella potential.
Our models project a wide range of possibilities for Wisconsin. On the downside, there remains a 6 percent chance that the Badgers will miss the tournament entirely, coming from a stacked Big Ten. However, the simulations also give Bo Ryan's team a 13 percent chance of taking a top-four seed, with the most likely position for the Badgers being a No. 8 seed. If the Badgers play well enough during the rest of the season to deliver on the top end of that range, they'd be a steal at current prices. Even factoring in all the possibilities, though, there still looks to be value with Wisconsin at a price of 80-to-1 or better.
<center>
</center>Gonzaga Bulldogs
Offshore odds: 20-1 to 25-1 | TeamRankings odds: 32-1
The presence of Gonzaga on this list highlights just how difficult it is to find betting value in championship futures odds, particularly when searching for long shot winners. Our models predict that at this point in the season, coach Mark Few's team is merely slightly less likely to win an NCAA tournament than the odds available from offshore books. After Pitt and Wisconsin, the Zags are the closest thing to a long shot value play that we can find.
Why is it so hard to find good long shot values? There are two reasons. The first one is obvious; it is not in the best interest of bookmakers to offer bettors amazing deals. The second is a little less obvious; while the NCAA tournament seems chaotic, championships are almost always won by one of the best few teams over the course of the season. Everyone loves to talk about deep runs by the likes of VCU and Butler in recent years, but there have been very few long shot winners -- e.g., 1985 Villanova -- in NCAA tournament history.
Our simulations help explain why. Even a team like Gonzaga, which currently ranks ninth in our tournament S-curve, projects with less than a 1-in-30 chance of winning it all, while heavier favorites like Florida and Indiana have championship odds of 1-in-4 and 1-in-6, respectively.
Still, Few does have his best team in five years and looks to be on track for a high tournament seed. Our models currently predict that the Zags most likely will capture a No. 2 or No. 3 seed, though a No. 1 seed is not out of the question (9 percent chance). If the Bulldogs snag a top seed, their chances of winning the tournament improve significantly. In that case, our model predicts that Gonzaga would have a 5 percent chance of winning it all, about equivalent to their current price in the futures market. But that's a best-case scenario.
At the very least, the Bulldogs seem a likely bet to have a deep tournament run, with our models predicting that the Zags have a 57 percent chance of making the Sweet 16, a 31 percent chance of playing in the Elite Eight, and a 15 percent chance of making the Final Four. In terms of a championship bet, though, Gonzaga looks like a value right now only if it can score at least a No. 2 seed, and the odds of that are less than 50/50 at this point -- although not much less.</offer>
