[h=1]Knicks reverting to big lineup[/h][h=3]Keep an eye on Lakers' trio of bigs; Howard could be in for rough week[/h]
By Bradford Doolittle | Basketball Prospectus
It's been a while since we checked in on our true position rankings this week, so let's see which teams are playing big and which are going small.
Early in the season, the Knicks played the smallest lineups in the league, but that's started to change since Amar'e Stoudemire returned from his knee injury. New York now ranks 28th in true position rating, ahead of only Phoenix and San Antonio. Last week, the Knicks were 21st. If you recall, the Knicks were mostly unbeatable when playing small full time.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Bulls have played the biggest lineups for the season and that's been consistently the case. The Bulls are first in true position rating for the season, and they were first last week. If anything, the emergence of Jimmy Butler has Tom Thibodeau playing even bigger configurations. When Butler and Luol Deng share the floor, it in essence gives the Bulls two small forwards on the court.
The team whose recent rating has departed the most from its season trend is Toronto. Last week, the Raptors played the smallest in the league with a tiny true position score of 2.58 (3.00 is average). This is partly due to positional designations, as opposed to the diminutive nature of the players Dwane Casey has put on the floor.
Casey's most frequently-used lineup last week featured DeMar DeRozan and Landry Fields on the wing, and both players are tagged as natural 2-guards by their career data. In the frontcourt, Amir Johnson and Ed Davis -- before Wednesday's trade -- has been the regular tandem, and both are power forwards. So there you go.
Details on how the Big Man Barometer is compiled and the true position system can be found here.
[h=3]Top 10 Big Man Performances[/h]Week of Jan. 23-29; players listed by winning percentage. Any player who played at least 30 minutes total at center or power forward last week is eligible for the rankings. Also included at the bottom are big man projections for next week.
[h=3]1. JaVale McGee | Denver Nuggets (.868)[/h]
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<center>McGee</center>
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The Nuggets are on a roll, so for once, I'm not going to quibble with McGee's playing time. Besides, George Karl is well aware of the numbers. Just a couple of days ago, he cited data about how much better Denver's defense is when Andre Iguodala shares the court with Kosta Koufos. To his credit, McGee continues to make the most of the opportunities he's been given. In two games last week, McGee played a total of just 32 minutes, so he almost didn't qualify. He made 11 of his 13 shots and, in case you're wondering, all his made shots came from 8 feet and in, while the two misses were outside that range.
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[h=3]2. LeBron James | Miami Heat (.786)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>James</center>
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Reggie Evans criticizing LeBron James is kind of like me criticizing Shakespeare, only I'm closer to Shakespeare as a writer than Evans is to James as a basketball player. And I am by no means a great writer. I can barely spell iambic pentameter.
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[h=3]3. Blake Griffin | Los Angeles Clippers (.774)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Griffin</center>
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Why you want Blake Griffin moving toward the basket: According to Synergy Sports Technology, he's shooting 47.6 percent around the rim on post-ups. When he gets to the basket by other means, he's at 70.7 percent. Apparently, it helps a player when he can elevate off two feet from about 10 feet out and dunk like he's playing NERF basketball.
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[h=3]4. Aaron Gray | Toronto Raptors (.765)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Gray</center>
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The fun part of having such a low qualifying threshold is that we get players like Aaron Gray to drop in from time to time. Gray squeezed onto the list basically because of one game -- a 22-point, 10-rebound outburst against the Warriors.
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[h=3]5. Emeka Okafor | Washington Wizards (.759)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Okafor</center>
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Okafor has become increasingly effective as he settles into Randy Wittman's system in Washington. His true shooting percentages by month: .425, .453, .500, .545.
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[h=3]6. Amar'e Stoudemire | New York Knicks (.758)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Stoudemire</center>
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Stoudemire hasn't played 30 minutes in a game yet, but he's upped his game to the point that Mike Woodson couldn't go back to playing small full time even if he wanted to. Last week, Stoudemire averaged 27.9 points and 11 rebounds per 40 minutes, and shot 62 percent from the floor. And that was before Wednesday's 7-for-7 shooting night against Orlando.
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[h=3]7. Danilo Gallinari | Denver Nuggets (.738)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Gallinari</center>
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Gallo a big man? He was last week, when we coded Gallinari as getting 42 percent of his minutes at the 4. For the season, that number is 38 percent. Last week, he had solid numbers across the board, with an 8-for-15 showing from 3-point range jumping off the stat sheet.
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[h=3]8. Joakim Noah | Chicago Bulls (.717)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Noah</center>
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Noah may have finished eighth on a per-possession basis last week, but when you factor in total playing time and productivity, his 1.08 WARP was the highest total in the league among all players. No player has been coded with more minutes at center and power forward than Noah this season.
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[h=3]9. Greg Monroe | Detroit Pistons (.703)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Monroe</center>
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Among qualifying bigs, Monroe has the 10th best assist rate on the season. It will be interesting to see what becomes of Monroe's game now that he'll be playing alongside a pure point guard in Jose Calderon.
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[h=3]10. Ekpe Udoh | Milwaukee Bucks (.702)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Udoh</center>
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Udoh sneaks into the rankings based on efficiency, but we're still trying to figure out what his niche in the league is going to be, or if he's ever going to find one. He made 6 of 8 shots and averaged 12.3 rebounds and 4.1 blocks per 40 minutes last week, but he totaled just 39 minutes over three games. Then when starting center Larry Sanders sat out Wednesday's loss to Chicago, Udoh had just two points, zero rebounds and one block in 12 minutes as Samuel Dalembert got the call as the starting pivot.
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[h=3]Three to watch[/h]
Dwight Howard | Los Angeles Lakers
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<center>Howard</center>
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We're focusing on the Lakers' big man trio this week because of the highly-publicized change in emphasis in L.A.'s offense. Since Kobe Bryant has turned from finisher to starter, there are going to be that many more shots and points to go around. In the four games since that occurred, seven Lakers have averaged double figures.
That's meant a decline in production for Howard, as he shifts his focus to the defensive end. Howard has averaged just 14.5 points over the four games, but has chipped in with 10.3 rebounds, 2.3 steals and 1.8 blocks. Unfortunately, he tweaked his bad shoulder in Wednesday's loss to Phoenix and the injury looks like it'll plague him for the rest of the season. For that reason, take his forecast as next week's most productive big man with a grain of salt.
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Pau Gasol | Los Angeles Lakers
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<center>Gasol</center>
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Gasol still isn't thrilled about his bench role, but he's shooting 60 percent since the Lakers' offensive shift. If Howard misses any time, Gasol is well positioned to benefit from Bryant's generosity.
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Earl Clark | Los Angeles Lakers
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<center>Clark</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->Clark is enjoying the best stretch of his career, and that was true even before Bryant altered his game. Clark is getting 10.8 points and 7.5 rebounds since the switch. More impressively, Clark is shooting 53.8 percent from deep over that stretch, a quality that has made him a natural fit in Mike D'Antoni's offense.
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Here are the top-25 big man projections for the week of Feb. 4-10 (forecast for all the players who qualified for this week's Barometer rankings):
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Big Man Barometer[/h]
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By Bradford Doolittle | Basketball Prospectus
It's been a while since we checked in on our true position rankings this week, so let's see which teams are playing big and which are going small.
Early in the season, the Knicks played the smallest lineups in the league, but that's started to change since Amar'e Stoudemire returned from his knee injury. New York now ranks 28th in true position rating, ahead of only Phoenix and San Antonio. Last week, the Knicks were 21st. If you recall, the Knicks were mostly unbeatable when playing small full time.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Bulls have played the biggest lineups for the season and that's been consistently the case. The Bulls are first in true position rating for the season, and they were first last week. If anything, the emergence of Jimmy Butler has Tom Thibodeau playing even bigger configurations. When Butler and Luol Deng share the floor, it in essence gives the Bulls two small forwards on the court.
The team whose recent rating has departed the most from its season trend is Toronto. Last week, the Raptors played the smallest in the league with a tiny true position score of 2.58 (3.00 is average). This is partly due to positional designations, as opposed to the diminutive nature of the players Dwane Casey has put on the floor.
Casey's most frequently-used lineup last week featured DeMar DeRozan and Landry Fields on the wing, and both players are tagged as natural 2-guards by their career data. In the frontcourt, Amir Johnson and Ed Davis -- before Wednesday's trade -- has been the regular tandem, and both are power forwards. So there you go.
Details on how the Big Man Barometer is compiled and the true position system can be found here.
[h=3]Top 10 Big Man Performances[/h]Week of Jan. 23-29; players listed by winning percentage. Any player who played at least 30 minutes total at center or power forward last week is eligible for the rankings. Also included at the bottom are big man projections for next week.
[h=3]1. JaVale McGee | Denver Nuggets (.868)[/h]
<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>McGee</center>
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The Nuggets are on a roll, so for once, I'm not going to quibble with McGee's playing time. Besides, George Karl is well aware of the numbers. Just a couple of days ago, he cited data about how much better Denver's defense is when Andre Iguodala shares the court with Kosta Koufos. To his credit, McGee continues to make the most of the opportunities he's been given. In two games last week, McGee played a total of just 32 minutes, so he almost didn't qualify. He made 11 of his 13 shots and, in case you're wondering, all his made shots came from 8 feet and in, while the two misses were outside that range.
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[h=3]2. LeBron James | Miami Heat (.786)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>James</center>
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Reggie Evans criticizing LeBron James is kind of like me criticizing Shakespeare, only I'm closer to Shakespeare as a writer than Evans is to James as a basketball player. And I am by no means a great writer. I can barely spell iambic pentameter.
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[h=3]3. Blake Griffin | Los Angeles Clippers (.774)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Griffin</center>
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Why you want Blake Griffin moving toward the basket: According to Synergy Sports Technology, he's shooting 47.6 percent around the rim on post-ups. When he gets to the basket by other means, he's at 70.7 percent. Apparently, it helps a player when he can elevate off two feet from about 10 feet out and dunk like he's playing NERF basketball.
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[h=3]4. Aaron Gray | Toronto Raptors (.765)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Gray</center>
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The fun part of having such a low qualifying threshold is that we get players like Aaron Gray to drop in from time to time. Gray squeezed onto the list basically because of one game -- a 22-point, 10-rebound outburst against the Warriors.
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[h=3]5. Emeka Okafor | Washington Wizards (.759)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Okafor</center>
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Okafor has become increasingly effective as he settles into Randy Wittman's system in Washington. His true shooting percentages by month: .425, .453, .500, .545.
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[h=3]6. Amar'e Stoudemire | New York Knicks (.758)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Stoudemire</center>
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Stoudemire hasn't played 30 minutes in a game yet, but he's upped his game to the point that Mike Woodson couldn't go back to playing small full time even if he wanted to. Last week, Stoudemire averaged 27.9 points and 11 rebounds per 40 minutes, and shot 62 percent from the floor. And that was before Wednesday's 7-for-7 shooting night against Orlando.
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[h=3]7. Danilo Gallinari | Denver Nuggets (.738)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Gallinari</center>
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Gallo a big man? He was last week, when we coded Gallinari as getting 42 percent of his minutes at the 4. For the season, that number is 38 percent. Last week, he had solid numbers across the board, with an 8-for-15 showing from 3-point range jumping off the stat sheet.
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[h=3]8. Joakim Noah | Chicago Bulls (.717)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Noah</center>
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Noah may have finished eighth on a per-possession basis last week, but when you factor in total playing time and productivity, his 1.08 WARP was the highest total in the league among all players. No player has been coded with more minutes at center and power forward than Noah this season.
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[h=3]9. Greg Monroe | Detroit Pistons (.703)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Monroe</center>
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Among qualifying bigs, Monroe has the 10th best assist rate on the season. It will be interesting to see what becomes of Monroe's game now that he'll be playing alongside a pure point guard in Jose Calderon.
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[h=3]10. Ekpe Udoh | Milwaukee Bucks (.702)[/h]<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Udoh</center>
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Udoh sneaks into the rankings based on efficiency, but we're still trying to figure out what his niche in the league is going to be, or if he's ever going to find one. He made 6 of 8 shots and averaged 12.3 rebounds and 4.1 blocks per 40 minutes last week, but he totaled just 39 minutes over three games. Then when starting center Larry Sanders sat out Wednesday's loss to Chicago, Udoh had just two points, zero rebounds and one block in 12 minutes as Samuel Dalembert got the call as the starting pivot.
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[h=3]Three to watch[/h]
Dwight Howard | Los Angeles Lakers
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<center>Howard</center>
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We're focusing on the Lakers' big man trio this week because of the highly-publicized change in emphasis in L.A.'s offense. Since Kobe Bryant has turned from finisher to starter, there are going to be that many more shots and points to go around. In the four games since that occurred, seven Lakers have averaged double figures.
That's meant a decline in production for Howard, as he shifts his focus to the defensive end. Howard has averaged just 14.5 points over the four games, but has chipped in with 10.3 rebounds, 2.3 steals and 1.8 blocks. Unfortunately, he tweaked his bad shoulder in Wednesday's loss to Phoenix and the injury looks like it'll plague him for the rest of the season. For that reason, take his forecast as next week's most productive big man with a grain of salt.
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Pau Gasol | Los Angeles Lakers
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<center>Gasol</center>
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Gasol still isn't thrilled about his bench role, but he's shooting 60 percent since the Lakers' offensive shift. If Howard misses any time, Gasol is well positioned to benefit from Bryant's generosity.
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Earl Clark | Los Angeles Lakers
<!--INLINE MUG-->
<center>Clark</center>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->Clark is enjoying the best stretch of his career, and that was true even before Bryant altered his game. Clark is getting 10.8 points and 7.5 rebounds since the switch. More impressively, Clark is shooting 53.8 percent from deep over that stretch, a quality that has made him a natural fit in Mike D'Antoni's offense.
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Here are the top-25 big man projections for the week of Feb. 4-10 (forecast for all the players who qualified for this week's Barometer rankings):
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Big Man Barometer[/h]
| PLAYER | POS | GP | FG% | 3M | REB | AST | STL | TO | BLK | PTS | SCORE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight Howard | C | 4 | .595 | 0.0 | 12.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 21.5 | 18.7 | 74.7 |
| LeBron James | SF | 3 | .526 | 1.0 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 28.4 | 24.7 | 74.2 |
| Ryan Anderson | PF | 4 | .419 | 3.2 | 8.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 19.7 | 15.0 | 59.8 |
| Joakim Noah | C | 4 | .513 | 0.0 | 12.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 13.9 | 14.8 | 59.0 |
| David Lee | PF | 4 | .514 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 17.4 | 14.1 | 56.5 |
| Al Jefferson | C | 4 | .490 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 17.8 | 13.9 | 55.7 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | PF | 3 | .484 | 0.1 | 9.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 24.2 | 18.3 | 54.8 |
| Greg Monroe | C | 4 | .524 | 0.0 | 9.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 52.0 |
| Pau Gasol | PF | 4 | .519 | 0.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 50.7 |
| Carmelo Anthony | SF | 3 | .452 | 1.3 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 25.2 | 16.8 | 50.3 |
| Paul Millsap | PF | 4 | .508 | 0.1 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 15.3 | 12.4 | 49.8 |
| Blake Griffin | PF | 3 | .557 | 0.1 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 21.0 | 16.1 | 48.2 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | C | 4 | .467 | 0.0 | 8.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 16.5 | 11.7 | 46.9 |
| DeMar DeRozan | SF | 4 | .444 | 0.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 18.9 | 11.3 | 45.3 |
| Carlos Boozer | PF | 4 | .521 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 15.0 | 11.3 | 45.2 |
| Chris Bosh | PF | 3 | .492 | 0.1 | 8.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 19.3 | 14.8 | 44.4 |
| Anthony Davis | PF | 4 | .509 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 42.5 |
| David West | PF | 3 | .510 | 0.1 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 17.2 | 13.5 | 40.6 |
| Kenneth Faried | PF | 3 | .569 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 14.5 | 13.3 | 39.8 |
| Danilo Gallinari | SF | 3 | .416 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 17.0 | 13.2 | 39.6 |
| Glen Davis | C | 4 | .447 | 0.1 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 13.7 | 9.4 | 37.7 |
| Thaddeus Young | SF | 3 | .480 | 0.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 16.6 | 12.2 | 36.7 |
| Marcin Gortat | C | 3 | .557 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 13.4 | 12.0 | 35.9 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | PF | 4 | .462 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 35.8 |
| Robin Lopez | C | 4 | .481 | 0.0 | 6.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 34.4 |
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