ufc 156(4 plays)

We picked up a couple of units yesterday at Bellator 87, with Will Brooks and David Rickels both winning. On to saturday night at the Mandalay Bay Events Center for UFC 156. I've got 4 plays on the card, starting with the main event Jose Aldo -240 vs Frankie Edgar+200 - So Edgar loses a couple of close decisions to Ben Henderson and now he "decides" to go down to 145lbs and in his first fight challenges Jose Aldo, WOW! I don't think this is a good decision. Wonder how Frankie will feel in the cage after this first significant weight cut, how about realizing he doesn't feel so fast once the bell rings, and how will he feel when his punches don't feel as strong? I like Edgar and I think he's very good but in this fight he's got NO chance. none. Aldo is a lightweight who fights at featherweight, he's the fastest and the most powerful in the division. Frankie has never seen explosiveness like this and although he's shown heart and an ability to take punches and come back, I don't think he's coming back in this one. On the weigh-in show on fuel tv, I saw the poll for this fight, over 60% think Edgar will win, What!?! I would be shocked if this is close at all. I'm thinking Aldo finishes him or its a very one-sided decision. Only concern(and why its only a 2 unit play), a long layoff of just over a year for Jose.

2 units Jose Aldo -240

Jon Fitch -150 vs Demian Maia +130 - First thing jumps out is the line, I don't understand how Fitch could be over 2-1 against Demian, thus I have it Fitch -150. Lets take a look at Fitch, about to turn 35(later this month) he is win/lose/draw in his last 3 fights and the last time he finished someone was over 5 years ago in 2007. The way I see it, the best of Jon Fitch is in the past, but it doesn't mean he can't win fights, Its just I don't see him fighting for a championship again. Fitch has been credited with the best submission defense in all of MMA, but he hasn't fought Maia and if he gets in submission danger I don't think he will escape. The strength of this pick really lies with the confident Maia since going to welterweight(2-0) On the feet, Maia is much faster and I believe a better striker in this bout then if Fitch is wrestling Maia to the ground, I believe Maia can either play jiu jitsu or use his speed to scramble, sweep or reverse position to gain an advantage over Fitch.

2 units Demian Maia +130

Gleison Tibau -110 vs Evan Dunham -110 - Looks like a really tough fight here, Tibau has been a very consistent winner in the ufc(10-5) but I don't think he can submit Dunham or hurt him with punches. I make this pick based on the way I see the pace going, I think Dunham can control the fight with boxing and even grappling for all 3 rounds. Dunham only really got beat up once, and that was from Melvin Guillard who was just way too fast for him. Dunham's other 2 losses(tj grant and sean sherk) are very close, some think he could have won both. I feel like Evan is the fresher fighter, the more active and has more reserve when the fight gets tough.

2 units Evan Dunham -110

Rashad Evans -500 vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +400 - I know, Rashad is going to take him down and win a decision. Well, I'm not so sure. Evans took his worst beating from Jon Jones and then pondered retirement, even thought of dropping down to middleweight. Does that sound like someone you want to lay -500 on? No matter what, there will be a letdown for Evans here, from fighting for the title to facing a veteran like Nogueira who he thinks he can beat in his sleep. Normally this might be a wasted bet, but I will take a chance on a line like this with someone who gives it 100% every time he steps in to fight, a very hard hitting boxer with very good jiu jitsu and despite coming off injury I think will be the fresher fighter on this night. Competitiveness of Nogueira when he's given little chance to win, I think makes for a decent bet. If you don't buy this one, I don't blame you, but I will take "lil nog" in an upset.

1 unit Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +400

good luck,

- boldtiger

Interesting write-ups. I actually have action placed on the following:

Edgar to beat Aldo (by split decision)
Overeem to beat Bigfoot (by KO)
Rashad to beat Lil Nog (by unanimous ecision)
Benavidez to beat Uncle Creepy (by split decision)

Should be a great night of fights.

Tim

thanks

hope u get benvidez by split- that would be something

should be an entertaining night of fights

I disagree with the Maia and Lil Nog bets. Also, I would not be surprised at all if Edgar pulls the upset although Aldo's striking is remarkable and I think it will give Frankie problems. Frankie is a great game planner though and I imagine him trying to turn this into a wrestling match although Aldo is hard to take/keep down. I am looking forward to this card also.

Good first fight for the PPV card.....thought Uncle Creepy won the second round but can't complain about the judge's decision. Both fighters looked good....Benavidez was just a bit better tonight.

Tim

Well....Overeem clearly did not take this fight serious enough....what a mistake. He just killed his chances at a title shot anytime soon.

Tim

To boldtiger...Great calls on Maia and Lil Nog! I knew Maia had great BJJ, but did not think he could take down and hold down Fitch that easily. Also. I don't know what the hell Evans was doing, but good for Lil Nog to take advantage of it and get the win. Glad you won some $. I wish Edgar had done more in rds 1-3. He definitely brought it on in rds 4-5 but not enough to overcome rds 1-3. I loved the Bigfoot KO!!! The crowd was going crazy at the Bdubs I was at!!! Great moment for Bigfoot. Great night for the Brazilians!!!

damn i missed out on these
nice picks