Best 2014 Super Bowl value bets
Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears among teams offering wagering value
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Despite losing the Super Bowl last night to the Baltimore Ravens, the San Francisco 49ers ended the season as the top-ranked team in the Vegas NFL Bettors' poll. And that poll also acts as a look-ahead to the 2013-14 season.
The rankings, compiled from the power ratings of professional handicappers Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley, are mostly just a minor adjustment from our numbers at the end of the regular season, but they're pretty much in line with the Super Bowl XLVIII futures at the Las Vegas Hotel SuperBook that have been up for several weeks already. The odds in the accompanying chart below are the adjusted LVH futures after Sunday night's game.
The New England Patriots are currently the 6-1 favorite with the 49ers right behind them at 7-1 and the Denver Broncos, who were the AFC's No. 1 seed but lost in the divisional playoffs to the eventual champion Ravens, are the only other team with single-digit odds at 8-1.
Our rankings have the 49ers as the top team with the Patriots, Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packerstied for the second spot, followed by the Broncos and then the Ravens, who are sixth in our rankings and tied for seventh-best choice in the LVH futures at 14-1.
Let's take a look at some of the best betting values for Super Bowl XLVIII:
<offer><!-- begin inline 1 -->Season-Ending Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll
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Best-bet values for Super Bowl XLVIII
Now, keep in mind that most pros don't see value in betting at these current prices with so much that can happen in the coming months. And that's before the fact that you're basically tying up your money for a full year (with no interest!). In fact, Selvaggio said nothing looks playable to him at this time. Sevransky offers up a suggestion below and also mentioned the New York Giants (20-1 with a nucleus of a team that is just a year removed from winning it all and can play with anyone on their best day) and Washington Redskins (30-1 and who should only get better with Robert Griffin III) as possible fliers.
Seattle Seahawks (12-1)
Tuley: Among the top teams with relatively low odds, this looks like the value play to me. Seattle is a team that doesn't do anything poorly: great defense, balanced offense and solid special teams. The big obstacle is being in the same division as the 49ers, but imagine if the 49ers regress a little and the Seahawks are able to get home-field advantage in the playoffs with their 12th man. This 12-1 bet could look like a bargain.
Chicago Bears (30-1)
Sevransky: The Bears had one major weakness this past season -- their downfield passing game was ineffective for extended stretches, in large part thanks to the weakness of their offensive line and the lack of creativity from Mike Tice. This is a fixable problem. New head coach Mark Trestman has a reputation as an offensive innovator, and new coordinator Aaron Kromer has been a successful offensive line coach in multiple spots, including his most recent stint with New Orleans. Chicago won 10 games last year and had a plus-98 point differential, the type of numbers you don't often see from teams at 30-1.
Indianapolis Colts (40-1)
Tuley: With rookie Andrew Luck, the Colts challenged the heavily favored Houston Texans for the AFC South title, coming up just short. But obviously they showed that the rebuilding process from the end of the Peyton Manning era will be (and already has been) a short one. The run defense is still a concern, but if they can improve that through free agency and/or the draft, you should see their odds plummet by the start of the season.
Other potential longshots:
New Orleans Saints (16-1): With the return of Sean Payton and putting the bounty scandal behind them, this team should be better next year.
St. Louis Rams (50-1): Jeff Fisher has them on the rise.
Philadelphia Eagles (50-1): But only if you believe Chip Kelly is the answer.
Who do you like at the current odds?</offer>
Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears among teams offering wagering value
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Despite losing the Super Bowl last night to the Baltimore Ravens, the San Francisco 49ers ended the season as the top-ranked team in the Vegas NFL Bettors' poll. And that poll also acts as a look-ahead to the 2013-14 season.
The rankings, compiled from the power ratings of professional handicappers Teddy "Covers" Sevransky of sportsmemo.com, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley, are mostly just a minor adjustment from our numbers at the end of the regular season, but they're pretty much in line with the Super Bowl XLVIII futures at the Las Vegas Hotel SuperBook that have been up for several weeks already. The odds in the accompanying chart below are the adjusted LVH futures after Sunday night's game.
The New England Patriots are currently the 6-1 favorite with the 49ers right behind them at 7-1 and the Denver Broncos, who were the AFC's No. 1 seed but lost in the divisional playoffs to the eventual champion Ravens, are the only other team with single-digit odds at 8-1.
Our rankings have the 49ers as the top team with the Patriots, Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packerstied for the second spot, followed by the Broncos and then the Ravens, who are sixth in our rankings and tied for seventh-best choice in the LVH futures at 14-1.
Let's take a look at some of the best betting values for Super Bowl XLVIII:
<offer><!-- begin inline 1 -->Season-Ending Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | 2014 futures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 26 | 7-1 |
| 2t | New England Patriots | 25.5 | 6-1 |
| 2t | Seattle Seahawks | 25.5 | 12-1 |
| 2t | Green Bay Packers | 25.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | Denver Broncos | 25 | 8-1 |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens | 24.5 | 14-1 |
| 7 | Houston Texans | 24 | 10-1 |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | 23.5 | 16-1 |
| 9 | Washington Redskins | 22.5 | 30-1 |
| 10t | Cincinnati Bengals | 22 | 30-1 |
| 10t | Pittsburgh Steelers | 22 | 14-1 |
| 10t | New York Giants | 22 | 20-1 |
| 13t | Minnesota Vikings | 21 | 40-1 |
| 13t | Chicago Bears | 21 | 30-1 |
| 15t | Dallas Cowboys | 20.5 | 30-1 |
| 15t | New Orleans Saints | 20.5 | 16-1 |
| 15t | Carolina Panthers | 20.5 | 50-1 |
| 18 | Indianapolis Colts | 19.5 | 40-1 |
| 19 | St. Louis Rams | 19 | 50-1 |
| 20t | Miami Dolphins | 18.5 | 50-1 |
| 20t | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 18.5 | 60-1 |
| 22t | Cleveland Browns | 18 | 50-1 |
| 22t | San Diego Chargers | 18 | 40-1 |
| 24t | Detroit Lions | 17.5 | 40-1 |
| 24t | Buffalo Bills | 17.5 | 100-1 |
| 26 | Philadelphia Eagles | 17.5 | 50-1 |
| 27t | New York Jets | 16 | 50-1 |
| 27t | Tennessee Titans | 16 | 100-1 |
| 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 15 | 150-1 |
| 30 | Oakland Raiders | 15 | 150-1 |
| 31 | Arizona Cardinals | 14.5 | 100-1 |
| 32 | Kansas City Chiefs | 14 | 50-1 |
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Best-bet values for Super Bowl XLVIII
Now, keep in mind that most pros don't see value in betting at these current prices with so much that can happen in the coming months. And that's before the fact that you're basically tying up your money for a full year (with no interest!). In fact, Selvaggio said nothing looks playable to him at this time. Sevransky offers up a suggestion below and also mentioned the New York Giants (20-1 with a nucleus of a team that is just a year removed from winning it all and can play with anyone on their best day) and Washington Redskins (30-1 and who should only get better with Robert Griffin III) as possible fliers.
Seattle Seahawks (12-1)
Tuley: Among the top teams with relatively low odds, this looks like the value play to me. Seattle is a team that doesn't do anything poorly: great defense, balanced offense and solid special teams. The big obstacle is being in the same division as the 49ers, but imagine if the 49ers regress a little and the Seahawks are able to get home-field advantage in the playoffs with their 12th man. This 12-1 bet could look like a bargain.
Chicago Bears (30-1)
Sevransky: The Bears had one major weakness this past season -- their downfield passing game was ineffective for extended stretches, in large part thanks to the weakness of their offensive line and the lack of creativity from Mike Tice. This is a fixable problem. New head coach Mark Trestman has a reputation as an offensive innovator, and new coordinator Aaron Kromer has been a successful offensive line coach in multiple spots, including his most recent stint with New Orleans. Chicago won 10 games last year and had a plus-98 point differential, the type of numbers you don't often see from teams at 30-1.
Indianapolis Colts (40-1)
Tuley: With rookie Andrew Luck, the Colts challenged the heavily favored Houston Texans for the AFC South title, coming up just short. But obviously they showed that the rebuilding process from the end of the Peyton Manning era will be (and already has been) a short one. The run defense is still a concern, but if they can improve that through free agency and/or the draft, you should see their odds plummet by the start of the season.
Other potential longshots:
New Orleans Saints (16-1): With the return of Sean Payton and putting the bounty scandal behind them, this team should be better next year.
St. Louis Rams (50-1): Jeff Fisher has them on the rise.
Philadelphia Eagles (50-1): But only if you believe Chip Kelly is the answer.
Who do you like at the current odds?</offer>
