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Wednesday Cliff Notes - Sharper Lines!
As is the case with any sport later in the season, there's more data and the lines get tighter. It's easy to see as a bettor, simply by the number of games in a given day that come down to the final minute, whether it's a 14 point favorite, a 4 point underdog, or a total. The key is how WE will adjust to that, because it's every year. The last two weeks we have been behind, but not on Wednesday.
Syracuse at Uconn: With Sutherland back in the fold one would certainly have to believe that the Orange will get some additional love. The one thing UConn does have that most teams playing Syracuse cannot compete with is size. But, for all that length that are not a good rebounding team at either end of the court, and where it looks like it may really hurt them is on the defense. The 'Cuse is a superior offensive rebounding team. With Sutherland back they've got another outside threat other than Triche. And at 6'8" Uconn really doesn't have anyone that can match up with him. Huskies only home loss was to L'ville but they haven't played the best teams in Storrs. Yet. Orange lost their last two road games (without Sutherland) and really have to be considered here. Although, Syracuse beat Uconn badly in the regular season and then knocked them out of the Conference tournament by three in a very low scoring game. Since both teams are superior FT shooting teams, the lack of rebounding should lead to fast break baskets, and the fact that Uconn should perhaps push the pace a bit more, this game may well go over. The side. We'll pass for now. Sharp money has indeed been dictating policy lately.
San Diego State at Colorado State: Both teams behind New Mexico in the MWC, and this game is probably more important to SDSU because four of their last seven are on the road, including at UNLV Saturday and later AT New Mexico, so they can't afford too many more losses. CSU has not lost at home, and this is a rematch from an earlier game that CSU lost in OT at SDSU. With that in mind, one would think they'd be the right side, but, remember these lines are getting tighter. CSU has the experience (#3 in the nation) and SDSU has the size here, but what has amazed me is how well CSU has rebounded under Eustachy, which probably shouldn't given that Southern Miss was always a great rebounding team as well. Just not THIS good. Since the Aztecs ARE a good offensive rebounding team, this may be their best test yet. In the last game, both defenses completely dominated, holding each other under 40%. SDSU made tons of threes, while CSU owned the offensive glass (what's new) getting NINETEEN offensive rebounds. If both teams make the adjustments to combat those, one would have to think this game stays under. CSU is very methodical and will not want a track meet here. I'd have to lean CSU simply because they get to the line more and are overall a better FT shooting team, and at home should get more calls, one would think. Lean under, because this should be an intense defensive game.
Creighton at Northern Iowa: Potential pay-back for Northern Iowa from an earlier loss this season. They paid back the Shockers and kind of cruised through the last couple of games, probably looking ahead to this one. And with Creighton's last two losses they're now in a three way tie for first in the MVC. They'd better be careful because they have a losable game at Evansville on Saturday. They've got a BB game at St. Mary's too, so they've gone, in a couple of weeks, from a fairly high seed to potentially not so much, ending the season against Witchita State. Northern Iowa, as always, will take the air out of the ball. They've actually got a significant size advantage, so if Creighton is off, NI will dictate everything. They played two close games last year and this one should be no different. Three of Creighton's four Conference losses have come on the road, and they may well lose a third straight. I'd' give NI an advantage for two reasons. A far superior schedule that jades their stats a bit, and the best three point defense in the MVC since Conference play started.
Oregon at Washington: Ducks tied with Arizona and UCLA for first in the Pac-12, so every game important. They've lost three of four and semi-struggled with Utah, so perhaps there's SOME value here. They (Washington) lost at Oregon by five in a high scoring (go figure) game. Washington shot well in that game, but Oregon went to the line a whopping 37 times. Perhaps, though, a somewhat under valued home team. This is a team that beat Washington State, Cal, and Stanford on the road, all in succession. They played Arizona to the wire at home, and pushed UCLA to the last shot on the road last week. Of course they then lost to USC, but that was pretty predictable given the schedule. Ducks COULD be paying for a weak non-conference schedule now, and have been the beneficiary of a ton of home games early in conference play here. IMO Ducks may well lose this game. If Washington can slow it down enough, Oregon has had some turnover issues and the Huskies have a huge size advantage inside. Artis is listed recently as doubtful for the Ducks. I worry about Oregon's sheer athletic advantage, and Washington's "at times" relative clumsiness, but do think Washington wins this game.
North Carolina at Duke: As expected Duke struggled with BC, damned near losing outright. Heels had seemingly started to come together a bit (they are super young) but that beating in Miami clearly was a wake up call. Not unlike any other rivalry, you can simply throw records out when these two play, but the key thing is that because there is no love lost if one team (Duke?) gets ahead, they WILL try and win by 30. I did see that line come out at 10, which I thought may be a bit low. Clearly they're trying to get Duke money early, and at that number they probably will. And a big total of 152 as expected as well. Duke was out-everyting'd stat-wise against BC. If the Eagles hadn't shot 2-11 from deep, they'd certainly have lost. They were out-rebounded, has half as many steals, and let BC shoot over 50% from inside. It was so ugly it's almost hard to see a total turn-around that quickly. Heels had a similar performance in Miami, but didn't have the resolve to even keep it close, the sign of a young team. North Carolina simply shouldn't be able to compete offensively inside with Duke, so the only way they stay in this is by not turning it over and hitting outside shots. Since the general people will be on Duke and the over, I will take North Carolina and the under. For now.
Mississippi at Texas A & M: Mississippi in line for a first round bye in the Conference tournament. They've played the 4th toughest SEC schedule while the Aggies have actually played the second toughest. Perhaps, though, even losing to UK and UF before getting dismantled by Missouri, they are starting to feel the effects of a pitiful non-conference schedule. They barely beat both Auburn and Vanderbilt on the road, so I am not sure they can be trusted here. The Aggies W/L record is a bit deceptive, due in part to the strong schedule. They took UK to overtime before beating Missouri, both just prior to losing to an improving Georgia team. We have one of the slowest teams here (the Aggies) against one of the most up-tempo teams there is. Usually the home team dictates the pace. Usually. Aggies lead the SEC in offensive rebounding, and if they can control a few extra possession hence slowing this game down even more, I like their chances. Mississippi's interior defense can be had, and that's where the Aggies want the ball. Inside. My only hesitation is that for all the inside ball movement they just don't get to the line as often as I wish. However, it's Aggies or nothing here.
