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Thread: MLB Season Long Thread, with Daily Reports, including: PDWS (pitcher data work sheets) waldo's (umps) for 1st game of a series and other data of Money Line, Over and Unders.

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  1. #1 MLB Season Long Thread, with Daily Reports, including: PDWS (pitcher data work sheets) waldo's (umps) for 1st game of a series and other data of Money Line, Over and Unders. 
    Rx. Senior pops69's Avatar
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    morning all, this will be my year long thread and will also include my CBB Daily work sheet as well as all the tracking

    picks etc until the start of MLB and will than include the PDWS (pitcher data work sheet) plus any type games or bets

    that are money making opportunities that might come our way

    The objective of this thread is as follows:

    My first post of the day will include have the date and day in the title, so that you will only need to go back a few

    posts to see anything new for the day

    Any Rx members are welcome to post info in this thread on any subject. Feel free to ask any questions you might have

    regarding capping MLB, or any other sport as well. If I don’t know the answer, I’ll sure find someone that does. I’ve

    lived in Vegas for many years, and still have some great contacts and information sources, so feel free to ask any

    questions. only dumb question are one's you dont ask.

    THIS IS YOUR THREAD. SAME AS WITH LIFE, YOU GET OUT WHAT YOU PUT IN!!!

    This is NOT a “I give out my picks thread”. You have a enough dumb fucks already doing that, so follow or FADE one of

    them. Here we will be collecting key data that will be used to make betting decisions.

    Last year I created a excel spreadsheet that has no equal when it comes to data and analysis. This is the basis for all

    the analysis i do b4 i make any decisions etc. The the complete program and file from last year is 2460 rows and obrt

    520 col of individual game data, and calc giving us about 1.3 million points of data. and over 100 key pivot tables

    for the analysis of this information. I'll post the complete spreadsheet with all macro's in the next posts.

    It will be over 50 MB is size by season end.

    If you dont have Excel (Using 2007 Version) or dont know how to use it, dont waste your time and bandwidth d/l it as it

    will be an anchor taking up space on your hard drive. The base file will stay on the Rx thru the end of April and my

    daily files will stay on site for D/L about 7 days. I only use the daily to update my YTD data base. I will NOT

    update any 2009 data bases or pivot tables. It will be up to anyone that wants data to take my daily data and add it to

    there own data base in whatever format they want.

    I'm not a programmer, but i do know how to use Excel and it's features to make it easy to collect data and information.

    The key to being successful if to gather info as fast and easy as possible. You can only make money the old fashion

    way. Working for it, no free lunches when it comes to betting any sport.

    Contributions come in many sizes and forms. Quality posts and information posted in the thread is #1. From prividing

    key links were the everyone can get information and data eg. The key players spent the night in the drunk tank etc

    In previous years i had people helping to collect data and information, but right now my programs have evolved to the

    point where it takes less than 2 mins to gather all the data and information i need to start my daily analysis. There

    might be times when key opportunities come up where some special effor is required, but i dont see need for this at

    this time.

    Rx said that i'll have 35 MB of available space for daily download of spreadsheets and data so let give it a try. the

    2nd post in this thread will be the MLB 2008 master files (hope the upload works). so if you think you know how to use

    excel have at. i know there will be a bunch of things on it you dont understand etc, so let the questions began.

    almost 15 days to understand the basics etc so fire away

    tks and glta

    p.s. dont look for great grammer or correct spelling etc. as i tend to fat finger or type faster than i can think as

    well as drink and drive etc. mater updates end of April if 100,000 hits by April 1st, than 100,000 per month after that.

    links to an old read me file on the various cols in the master (about 300 have been added since it's creation, no time to update the read me. if it's not clear ask. i try to use the common sense approach to namine letters vs a full description

    also mlb park zip codes to find key weather related info

    let's get the show on the road. post em if you got em

    2010-2012 CFB Master

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/...ster%20HC.xlsm

    2010-2012 NFL Master

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/...20rev%20a.xlsm
    Last edited by pops69; 08-18-2013 at 11:26 AM.
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    Rx. Senior pops69's Avatar
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    need to get the 2013 MLB Pitcher Free agents and those in Option year as well. last years below, so need some sort of line to get these updates.
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    Rx. Senior pops69's Avatar
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    The objective of this thread is as follows:

    My first post of the day will include have the date and day in the title, so that you will only need to go back a few posts to see anything new for the day

    Any Rx members are welcome to post info in this thread on any subject. Feel free to ask any questions you might have regarding capping MLB, or any other sport as well. If I don’t know the answer, I’ll sure find someone that does. I’ve lived in Vegas for many years, and still have some great contacts and information sources, so feel free to ask any questions. only dumb question are one's you dont ask.

    THIS IS YOUR THREAD. SAME AS WITH LIFE, YOU GET OUT WHAT YOU PUT IN!!!

    This is NOT a “I give out my picks thread”. You have a enough dumb fucks already doing that, so follow or FADE one of them. Here we will be collecting key data that will be used to make betting decisions.

    Last year I created a excel spreadsheet that has no equal when it comes to data and analysis. This is the basis for all the analysis i do b4 i make any decisions etc. The the complete program and file from last year is 2460 rows and 95 col of individual game data plus around 100 key pivot tables for the analysis of this information. I'll post the complete spreadsheet with all macro's in the next posts. It's almost 25 MB. If you dont have Excel (Using 2007 Version) or dont know how to use it, dont waste your time and bandwidth d/l it as it will be an anchor taking up space on your hard drive. This file will stay on the Rx thru the end of April and my daily files will stay on site for D/L about 7 days. I only use the daily to update my YTD data base. I will NOT update any 2009 data bases or pivot tables. It will be up to anyone that wants data to take my daily data and add it to there own data base in whatever format they want.

    I'm not a programmer, but i do know how to use Excel and it's features to make it easy to collect data and information. The key to being successful if to gather info as fast and easy as possible. You can only make money the old fashion way. Working for it, no free lunches when it comes to betting any sport.

    Contributions come in many sizes and forms. Quality posts and information posted in the thread is #1. From prividing key links were the everyone can get information and data eg. The key players spent the night in the drunk tank etc

    In previous years i had people helping to collect data and information, but right now my programs have evolved to the point where it takes less than 2 mins to gather all the data and information i need to start my daily analysis. There might be times when key opportunities come up where some special effort is required, but i dont see the need for this at this time.

    Rx said that i'll have 35 MB of available space for daily download of spreadsheets and data so let give it a try. the 2nd post in this thread will be the MLB 2008 master files (hope the upload works). so if you think you know how to use excel have at. i know there will be a bunch of things on it you dont understand etc, so let the questions began. almost 15 days to understand the basics etc so fire away

    tks and glta

    p.s. dont look for great grammer or correct spelling etc. as i tend to fat finger or type faster than i can think as well as drink and drive etc

    win: no collective with respect to betting etc. i'm just providing a vehicle all loaded up with the initial data for every game as a basic starting point for individual analysis etc

    although i do provide whip data, with respect to what and how i'm using the data era for home and away along with pig pen data is more important to me. whip come more into play for my analysis for o/u along with umpire data as well

    once i'm able to upload the spreadsheet it will clear up some of the questions and raise more

    Thanks for the data. Does anyone have any good websites that help explain the use of excel spreadsheets with handicapping? I have been reading up over the past year, but excel is still fairly foreign to me at this point. I've been wanting to read up on it to help me organize me info much better and to see how others use excel to manage there data. Thanks for any help.

    zee: 1st step is to start using the program. just think of it as a large box of 300,000 drawers (about the size of the file i posted) that you can open if a fraction of a second and find any piece of info your looking for and format it any way you want in the same amount of time

    right now your kind of swiming up stream. you need to walk b4 you can run

    ton of books out there. i'm prob only using 1% of it's capabilities and trying to keep it as simple as possible

    prob more important than using excel it to:

    1. determine what you are going to bet on
    2. what type of information is it that you will need to make a better decision on making that wager
    3. finding the best sources for getting that information
    4. collecting it as fast and accurate as possible
    5. organizing it into a usable format
    6. analyisis of that information
    7. make your decision etc

    years ago i spent 99% of my time finding and collecting data and information, and less than 1% of the time with analysis. had it all ass backwards. now i spend less than 5% of the time collecting and 95% analysis

    no program is going to give you who will win etc. you just want to be able to bracket your info into buckets that give you the highest probability of the outcome your looking for

    every event has a random outcome. any pitcher with a 20.00 era can pitch a no hitter, or a batter with an .083 avg hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 9th. shit happens all the time in every event. no such thing as a goy or can lose bet, but there are situations where you will have a higher probability of getting the results your looking for..

    vince: that's what we have here. one click and you have the file and data. plus you have a spot available to ask questions and exchange info. the other leads to email email and mo email.. i dont answer emails as i want everyone to get the same info vs one or two or answer the same question 1000 time

    bull: long time no see. MLB was the only thing i did last year with the exception of a few thing where i had some decent info etc

    nothing is a good as baseball period. just need to keep your powder dry and look b4 you leap

    as you know i never read anyone else threads etc, but just scanning at the posters sure see a bunch of new names or maybe just same one's with different names

    here's what the score is so far. looks like around 50 people have d/l the spreadsheet. the interesting part is that not one question regarding any part of them. so it looks like one of the below applies.

    1. just d/l cause it was something for free.
    2. d/l and dont have a clue as how to use winrar to extract the excel files
    3. looked over the data and found it a piece of cake and dont have any questions
    4. making so much money betting cbb and nba that they dont have time to fool with this stuff

    tw: did you hit LV this past new years. was not around to hook up

    spart: i'm really not a give out picks guy. do give out a few gems from time to time in various sports but not on a regular basis. i traffic in information

    Pops, I really appreciate what you're doing. I am a programmer myself, and also have a lot of data mining expereience. I also have a script that pulls every pitch from the MLB Gameday database, and I have every Pitch from the past two years (About 2 Million) in a huge database. I think i could write something to automate what needs to be added to the excel sheet, and perhaps we could make this a whole lot easier. Or if there is more information you want, I can go through my database, and teach you how to search through it.

    I can do all the data stuff, anything you need.. I just don't know how to "Use" the data. So if you'd be willing to help me, and teach me -- I could get you the data in an automated fashion - and help you with that end. Don't know if thats an ignorant offer, but figure I'd put it out there.

    I'd love to talk, either you can reply here, or PM me.
    If you want, i also have AIM, and G-mail chat -- let me know!

    No problem, tbiala. I actually made a mistake, my record on totals is 5-1. I thought the Seattle/SDG game went over 8.5 yesterday but I just checked and saw it ended 4-3 (they had 7 runs through 5 innings -- couldn't push two more across in the next 8 turns at bat). That's essentially what I had been doing all season until I finally committed myself to it. I'm probably not the guy to ask considering I've only been using his data for less than a week and I'm sure there's a ton of stuff that I'm still missing. I've just gotten luck this past week (I posted the Brewers under about a week back and then the Minn/Pitt over yesterday, in addition to 4 total plays I never posted) and it so happens I've been using pops data. The first two plays I hardly used the pdws and just looked at some stats on espn.com and then the ump to make my bets, so clearly not neuroscience. Then pops said something that made me think "the ump only makes a 1 run difference" and if I know who the ump is (I get them from statfox.com), then Vegas certainly knows and they're going to adjust the line accordingly. So I decided to stop taking so much stock in the ump and look primarily at the starting pitchers.

    For example, yesterday I posted the Pitt/Minn over so I'll explain how I arrived at this play. The first thing I do is download the pdws and go right to the ERA vs. O/U difference. So if you download yesterdays (June 17) pdws, go right to the ERA O/U difference. In fact, I actually cut and paste this column right next to the opening ov/under line column so it's easier to see (for capping totals) and I don't have to scroll side to side on the excel sheet. Now just a quick glance and the number that pops out at you aside from the 14.80 of the Yankees/Nationals (I didn't play this because that number is clearly an aberration from Wang's norm; plus I'm a Yankee fan and watch every game and the Yanks offense has not impressed me lately, especially A Rod; furthermore, it was overcast here all day and as someone in this thread noted, occasionally umps will expand there zones to "get the game in").

    This is something I was thinking of doing. I have some knowledge in computer programming (java only), but I am able to get most things done with applescript (used in mac os x) and was considering trying to set it up to gather all my info on its own every day. Would there be a downside to this at all? It would automate everything and allow almost 100% of my time for analysis of data.

    ump and Zeeto. I think you guys missed the point. Everything is on this program. What was done in the past was-if someone found or has something that could be useful it simply was added to the program and done. That is the way it was and that is the way it should be.

    That file is filled with pivot tables. Me personally I hate them. Great to find an answer but I just don't like to go to the well every day. I generally make my own file out of the big file. I find areas in the pivots that show great results. I simply add my own formula to the my own spreadsheet that just gives me that answer every day with out going to each pivot. Then I track those results by sectors. One sector is year to date the other is by a set amount of days. Tracking year to date sometimes you don't see the change for awhile but if you track by 14 days or 21 you see a slide almost immediate.

    i would rather do most in the thread so everyone can learn as much as possible. not that i want to make everyone a programmer, more interested in getting people to think out of the box and start being creative vs looking for losers picks to follow:

    from russia with love is my main prog guy. works for the kgb, and almost nothing he cant do. all of my data mining is done in my PDWS (none of the macro's are included in that outline that i posted) key is to find a good source where you can pull data.

    an example of an easy on would be:
    http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoot...125_WMI@BALLST

    vs this one where you can only do a screen paste
    http://www.donbest.com/EN/main/ncaab/ncaabk_scores.html

    both are easy, but in the 1st example i never have to go to the site to collect the data vs having to on the other

    the one item i have never been able to automate is game time humidity. temp was easy as it's in the box score. humidity is the one of the top 5 most important factors in O/U in baseball

    zeeto: to me java is the anti crist. it's great for notifications and updates. Sports Options (the prem line service on this site) is great. couldnt live w/o it. but with respect to data mining i fucken hate it. can't capture it or do shit with it. a few of my OS are starting to use it as well and it causes me nothing but fits as i capture all the lines from all of them for scalping opportunities. right now none of my guys know how to grab anything from it other than blank air

    really not sure how i would use the pitch count data other than combining with umps that had small or large zones would keep starting pitchers in or out of game sooner

    stay on board. need someone to keep my angles in line


    Another thing here and hope Pops comments. I find April a pain in the ass. Other than domes and down south the temp raised hell with pitchers and hitters as well. Take a Cy Young pitcher throwing when it is 40 degrees. Get my drift. I use those early months but eventually, and just a seat of the pants thing, I start my tracking without the cold months in there. All Star break is another. What works before does not work after. Just some general BS

    pay attention to what ctp is saying. i'm providing a free car for everyone to use, and use the way they want vs the way i want. we all have diff needs with respect to data etc. also the more eyes and minds looking at the same subject creates many more questions that lead to adding additional data etc and makes everthing mo better

    tks ctp



    Ok, so jsut to get everything straight... you will post PDWS information every day in this thread that will contain the information for the previous days games. We can then put that into the spreadsheet and use to it make our analysis.

    Could you, or someone else break down some factors that I need to look for when i'm looking at an over-under - or a linescore. I can tell by your spreadsheet there is a ton of information, so what do you really use when analyzing a matchup. Could you maybe go through your thought process for a game? I understand this is probably very complicated... Perhaps you could point me in the direction of a good discussion on this, or even a book that I could buy to get a good basis..

    i'll post the information the day b4 for the next days game. everyone needs it well in advance so that they can start data analysis etc

    key data for o/u are day/night. ump, temp (humidity not provided) era and whip and pig pen era.

    yep. always open to adding additional data as long as there a ready source for data mining. as for the pivot tables. it's very easy with just a couple of clicks of the mouse to look a existing data the way you want. but that requires a little knowledge of using them

    that's way i really want as many people to d/l the spreadsheets and ask as many questions as possible so that they can understand what's available and how easy it is to use

    no way i can thing of everything. getting to the point were it's at today has taken almost 5 years and maybe 1000 hours
    Aside from the Yankee game, there are a number that stick out (I'm generally only looking for ones that have a ERA diff of + or -2 or more). So I'll walk you through my thinking yesterday regarding the ones that stick out (which pops has organized into categories):

    Just wondering, have you tried creating a predictive model, like perhaps a multiple linear regression using the stats that you mentioned to come up with an over-under score? Or do you just kinda eyeball them, and then judge what you think.

    Jump, someone tried that back when Pops had his old thread. Don't remember his handle. He actually put in the complete roster for both teams and somehow it gave a score. I believe he only did Seattle as that was his team. Worked then did not work. I think it had merit I just could not figure the complete thing out. Might still have some of the data if you want to take a stab at it.

    Pops, 1000 hours. I think you are missing a multiplier there like maybe 10 times or 20 times maybe more

    we came close in cbb. my opinion is that even with 300,000 data points of light it would be about 1% of what needed to get there. just way to many variables to come close at this point in time to make those type of projections. but bucketing your not betting the board and have a high probability of successful outcomes. but have at. a journey of 1000 miles starts with the 1st step. right now is decent for what i'm doing and looking for although always adding as well as deleting to fine tune etc

    will provide all the pdws schedule daily for every game being played in the format and spreadsheet shown in the example that i uploaded in post #9. you also have the master mlb program that i uploaded in post #12

    other key pieces of info will come from people that post in the thread as well as myself from time to time on something that fall from email or phone heaven

    2009 over/under is 200,000 -295 over

    were looking at less than 2 weeks to the start of ball. important for as many as possible to d/l the data and spreadsheet and ask as many questions as possible. there still time to add things that might be important w/o much effort. adding later and trying to collect past info takes a great deal of effort. i dont have time to do much of anything else. i spend almost every min of the day from the time i get up to when the last game starts working on my betting opportunities, so little is left for anything else

    Pops never thought about the angle of conferences trying to get more teams in. Very interesting. Took an L with FSU. Duke smokin' hot from 3. Found something that might be of help when you fill out your brackets. No team has ever lost in a conference quarterfinal and gone on to capture a national championship. (according to the NY Times). Thats Pitt, Uconn and Oklahoma this year. Lookin forward to the thread pops. Gotta let Woof know yer back.

    Ok-- I've been looking over the data a bit and there's a couple of things that I could see that may make it more complete.

    Could we add total pitches thrown, and total hits for both teams. Then we could calculate a game batting average, So we could do some quick math in the sheet to get batting average over past 5 games. See if a team is hitting well or not. Just becuase they're winning games doesn't mean they're hitting well. I know runs scored can be close to this stat, if they're hitting well they're scoring runs... but not neccesarily.

    Just a thought.

    Also, I seem to be missing where the temperature data is?

    Finally, I took all the data from the games, and put it in .arff format. There's a free open-source program called Weka (http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/~ml/) that can take this file and do some cool data-mining stuff on it. If you're interested check it out. It still needs some cleaning, and i didn't grab all the data. But by all means, fool around with it and see if you can get anythign useful out of it. I've attached the .arff file (You'll have to extract it from .rar)

    ljump12: do you use the one with java or does the one with java also d/l the java application as well? (with or w/o console) also which app within weka are you talking about. only ran the explorer and kind of looks like you get the same thing you would get using the pivot table within excel. not sure i could come close to being effective with that application within the next two weeks. think it would be better for someone that has worked with it to identify areas that might need to be adjusted eg. my ERA cat's etc

    i already have java installed on my puter as i do use the Sports Options Premium service and for what i do can live w/o it for what i'm doing

    you are correct i'm missing the temp data, i recall now that because i was unable to add in humidity i didnt bother with temp as it kind of useless w/o it. what i did with respect to the temp was key on the number in the box score and if there was windspeed etc i considered stadiums with retractable roofs to be O (Outdoors) I (indoors)

    the items requesting to add for hitting and pitching would require much more than you outlined as you would need to collect this for both teams plus you cant come up with team batting avg unless you also include the totals number of batters faced as well. i'd be glad to include this in the total package but i would need you to develope all the macro for the items you wanted into a seperate PDWS. I'm still going to need to validate all of my macro once and team starting pitchers etc once live data becomes available and your end would require the same as well. once both are debugged and working it's just a matter of combining them all into the one PDWS for data collection and than copy and paste into the 2009 master. i just dont want to put myself in a position where i'm swimming up stream right off the bat

    Yes, i use the java graphical interface. You don't need to know java or anything -- the program is jsut written in java. If you launch the explorer, then use the open file button to select the file. It will load in the data.

    You can then use the classify, cluster, associate tabs to run some algorithms on certain pieces of the data. Not saying i'm sure to do with it yet -- or that any of it will even be useful - but If anyone knows what they're doing -- the information is there.

    You can visualize some plots, might help you find relationships you might not have realized before. Not entirely sure.

    Question: The HSP/VSP: Whip & ERA, for each individual game, in the logs from 2008, that is their ERA or WHIP BEFORE the game it is listed in, correct?

    for those using the tool last year, how long did you just "track" data before you used it to inform your future wagers. how many total games, how many games per team, etc.

    jaf: i start using it from day one as i'm looking for specific trends and patterns but in general i feel you need at least 30 days to get everything sync up. the season will divide into 4 buckets as well. april is a bigger weather factor month. apr-all star. dont bet any large fav early as almost every large ML fav will get bet down from the open. IL play is way different as well. after AS break leading fav will hold open position, than final month OL fav go sky high as well as those that need to win

    early numbers will be set from last year to start out anyway and adj from there. every season is different but history tends to repeat its self
    "E - HP Umpire - other than the pitcher and catcher, and humidity one of the bigger factors in O/U."

    Can someone help me out with this... I'm assuming that an umpire that has a tighter strike zone will increase the total runs. What else are we looking for in an umpire that may affect that game?

    Also, have you already, or can we classify Umpires with a rating of say 1-5 - 5 being tightest strike zone, and 1 being loosest - If that is the only factor we look at...
    I'm keeping a smaller database for each team of my own thats tailored towards the gamelog information that I want (GmOutcome, Score, Plate Appearances, AB, H, BB, HBP, SF, LOB, Opp. Starting Pitcher). Like you, I'm trying to make the process as efficient as possible. It seems your database uses statfox to import data thats accumulated from the beginning of the season. Is there a website that you know of that can be used to import individual gamelog data? I've been looking into trying baseball-reference.com's gamelog section, but I need to review excel over the next day. Thanks for all your hard work.

    nys. for my daily i use mlb.com as it can be data mined w/o going to the site and directly to the box scores for each game without any problem. that's how all of my data gets updated for the bunch of my macro's. you just need to be sure that the site your data mining has specific end location vs general where you need to do screen dumps. those work as well but you have to go to the site vs just running a macro and collecting the data into your source document.

    ytd pitching stats in the only item i pull from statfox

    my 4 sources for data mining are:

    donbest.com
    statfox.com
    mlb.com

    plus use Sport Options. never turn that one off. you never know what and when good info falls from the sky

    you go the right idea. make your data base fit your needs and the way and why you bet. use the kiss method (keep it simple stupid)

    ooked like this thread was missing something...the hanger queen soundbite

    "that dont get you anywhere. i hate hanger queens. dont every tell me your following my picks or say good fucken picks etc. i dont fucken allow it in any of my threads, and not starting here. say anything about the spreadsheets, the data, injury info or tell me i'm a dumb fuck for picking auburn with there QB put in jail for drunk driving, anything other the atta boys. i hate fuck ata boys, go to the other fucken threads and put them there. hanger queens are the scumb of the fucken earth"

    Pops...

    I'm not sure if you have ever heard of something called
    OpenKapow - or Dapper

    Both are services that will allow you to scrape what you need off of websites. If you can give me an example of a site where there is some information that you need, I can put together something that scrapes the information off and saves it as a .csv file (Or basically, an excel file.) perhaps we could even build it into a macro right in excel.

    So if you can give me an example of where some data is on the web that you need, i'll give it a go.

    Found this article in my search for humidity: could be useful for n00bs like me:

    2. Humidity. Air with high humidity is less dense, or thinner, than dry air. But this effect is so slight it would only account for a long ball traveling a few inches farther on a humid day. There is, however, a significant and unexpected effect of humidity. According to Professor Robert Adair, the dean of baseball physicists, a baseball in a humid environment is actually heavier and less elastic than a dry ball, and, therefore, cannot be hit as far. The exact amount of this effect can only be determined experimentally, but, based on the data we've seen, we estimate a 400 ft shot on a day with average humidity would carry 415 ft on a very dry day with low humidity.

    3. Temperature. Warm air is less dense, or thinner, than cold air. A would-be 400ft shot at 75 degrees would carry 408ft at 95 degrees.

    4. Wind. Air moving along in the same direction the ball is flying pushes back less on the ball, allowing it to travel farther. In fact, the wind is very often the single most important thing to consider about the weather when betting baseball totals. A 400ft shot in calm conditions would turn into a 445ft blast with a 15 mph wind directed out to center field. So you can see on many occasions wind is more important even than the altitude in determining the total runs scored in baseball games.

    source: http://mlb.ultimatecapper.com/2008-B...conditions.php

    In trying to defuse the pitch-count controversy last week, Sandy Alderson, the Major League Baseball executive who initiated it with a series of e-mail messages, said he thought the umpires had misinterpreted his words. A reading of some of the e-mail shows how the umpires could have inferred a different message from the one Alderson said he meant to deliver.
    In one e-mail message, Alderson wrote to Jim Joyce, a 14-year umpiring veteran: ''Why so many pitches in this game? And why did it take so long? Hunt for strikes HIGH, LOW and IN.''
    Asked yesterday what he thought about the instruction to ''hunt for strikes,'' Joyce said: ''That was not a real good word to choose. It's a hard word to use, to tell an umpire to hunt for strikes. It almost makes it sound like you should make it up. We're not in that business. Once it was public, everyone was wondering, 'Are they telling the umpires to make it up?' Asking an umpire to hunt for strikes, that's like walking on eggshells.''
    A copy of the e-mail message to Joyce and e-mail to two other umpires were provided to The New York Times by a baseball official.
    Alderson, one of several officials who communicated with umpires on the subject of calling strikes, sent e-mail to Joyce and others from his home in San Francisco on July 4. Ten days later the umpires union filed a grievance against Major League Baseball, saying it was violating the labor contract by evaluating umpires on the number of pitches thrown in games. Four days after the union took that action, baseball officials agreed not to use pitch counts and pitch-count averages ''as measures of umpire performance.'' The union then withdrew the grievance. Baseball officials have not discussed the reason for their retreat, but the e-mail messages might have created a difficult position for them to defend.
    Yesterday Alderson reiterated his view that ''there could have been a misinterpretation.'' He especially thought Joyce could have gotten a wrong impression from the phrase ''hunt for strikes.''
    ''That was a term I had heard from one of our supervisors, one that I repeated,'' Alderson said from Fenway Park in Boston.
    Writing to Angel Hernandez, who is in his ninth season as a major league umpire, Alderson said: ''Just saw today that your game in Cincinnati was 300 pitches. You must have done a good job moving the game along, but you must get your pitch count down per game. In May and June you averaged 310 pitches per 9-inning game, which was the highest of all MLB umpires.''
    Alderson continued: ''The MLB average per 9-inning game is 283 and our average should be around 270-275. In order to bring your pitch count down you must call more strikes HIGH, LOW and IN. Be aggressive, particularly, in your case, down. You'll be happy with the results!'' Hernandez is not working a series and could not be reached for comment.
    Alderson has said that in all of the messages to umpires earlier this month, from him and others, the intention was to get the umpires to use the strike zone as defined in the rule book. If the umpires called strikes on all pitches passing through the desired strike zone, Alderson believed, games would have fewer pitches and move at a faster pace.
    ''I continue to be concerned about your strike zone,'' Alderson wrote to Fieldin Culbreth, a fifth-year umpire. ''During the months of May and June in 9-inning games you averaged 307 pitches per game, which is 20 pitches over the staff average, second highest among all umpires, and about 30 pitches per game higher than our MLB average should be.''
    Noting that Culbreth had more than 300 pitches in that day's Kansas City-Detroit game, Alderson wrote: ''You simply are not calling enough strikes from game to game. There must be more pitches up, down and in that can be called strikes. Look for them and call them! Your plate job on Sunday will be televised by ESPN using their new 'Kzone' tracking system. If you continue to call balls and strikes as you have, ESPN will be very critical of your performance and it will reflect poorly on the entire staff.''
    Alderson referred to the inter league game between the Mets and the Yankees, the last one before the All-Star Game break. Each team used four pitchers in a 4-1 game that lasted 2 hours 58 minutes, but they threw a relatively low total of 265 pitches.

    Culbreth did not respond to a message relayed to him after his game in Milwaukee yesterday seeking reaction to the e-mail message he received.

    Joyce readily discussed his reaction to the message he received.

    ''Originally I was surprised,'' Joyce said by telephone from Anaheim, Calif. ''I really didn't know what to think at that time. I was a little bit upset at the time, but part of me said I know what's going on. Maybe they're just trying to light a fire, give us a heads up. They want us to call more high strikes, low strikes and inside strikes.

    ''My second thought was I thought I did that anyway. After that I thought I'm not really responsible for pitch counts. It's the pitcher's count, not my count. They call it a pitch count for a reason. They don't call it an ump's count.''

    Joyce said he never really thought about pitch counts before receiving the e-mail message.

    ''We had a 22-7 game in Colorado the other night,'' he said. ''After a game like that, you might sit there the next day and say, I wonder how many pitches I saw in that game and you might add them up. But I never have added them. I wouldn't have thought 300 pitches was high. I guess they've made us aware of it now.''

    Pitch counts depend on many variables, Joyce added. ''Right before the break I had Boston and Atlanta,'' he said. ''Nomo pitched one of the games and threw his split-finger in the dirt 30 to 40 percent of the time. Atlanta kept swinging at the pitch. This was while we were still on the pitch-count thing. I said, if they didn't swing at those pitches my pitch count would have been 300.''

    Joyce said he thought the focus on pitch counts was related to the length of games. ''This might be a partial solution to speeding up games,'' he said. ''But I think the terminology and the vernacular they used made it sound like we weren't doing what we were supposed to do.''

    tw, fucken outstanding. i was told by a few people in the show that this was happening. bad enough with the us goverment doing social engineering to really fuck thing up. now mlb is trying to do the same.

    with most of the roids use being stopped it's turning back into a punch and judy game and boring. so they are trying to get the batters start swinging the bats

    eddings is going to have a field day this year. how can they be jumping on angle he's one of the biggest under umps in baseball. 68% unders and culbreth is 58% as well to the unders. joyce was more of an ov ump until last year when he was 50/50. so guess it's working
    temp w/o humidity is like dinner w/o wine. bad enough with dome teams pumping up or down the numbers to hinder the teams they are playing style. than the ROC cooking the balls to make them heavy, and MLB doing social engineering with the umps to speed up the game. They need to put humidity numbers right in the box score just like temp and wind direction to take the BS out of the game as much as possible. Not many people even though of the ump or humidity until i starting posting it years ago. Something that i've been doing for almost 20 years. It's the little game inside the big one
    Pops,

    Great to have you back posting again. Let me know if I can help with anything.

    I found this site that shows actual humdity by city. Just click on the area that you want and it shows the current humidty.

    http://beta.intellicast.com/Global/Humidity.aspx

    Looks like yall may have figured something out. If it doesn't work out or I can still help just let me know. And I was skeptical of Vegas Insider's weather info also but after spending a lot of time last year pouring over different weather websites I found it to be one of the most reliable....every once in awhile they will throw out a 100% humidity when in actuality it is 30% or something and I can usually pick those errors out.

    I figured I would give out a little of the insight I have come up with over the past 2 seasons regarding humidity. Like someone posted earlier the balls absorb the moisture and will not go as far but the air is actually thinner the higher the humidity so ball the can travel further and these two variables work against each other so the result in ball travel is negible. But the theory (pops taught me) I work with is that the pitcher gets less movement on his pitches with low humidity (so you get more overs) and when the humidity is 50%-70% the pitchers seem to excel (you get more unders). There are a bunch of factors that come into play and whether the theory is right or wrong the data doesn't lie. And there is no huge edge betting with the humidity knowledge....it is just another factor. The times when it has really factored in and become a great capping tool is when the humidity at a certain stadium is more of an anomaly than the norm. For example, Arizona and Colorado almost always have low humidty so look for a day when the humidity is unusally high and visit the rest of the data to see if the Under looks like a good play. And vice versa look for low humidity in stadium that normally has high humidity and that is where you can find an edge.

    all questions are das good

    so i know where to start with details. did you d/l my mlb 2008 master file? it has all of that detail information anyway you want to look at it. I plan to do an upload today of that file and a couple of others with some very minor changes but you should find it w/o any problem. if you do have the file everything your looking for is in the CAT Pivots and i can explain how to use those if you done

    A good read for betting early season baseball.


    EARLY SEASON BASEBALL BETTING
    With Opening Day approaching, baseball bettors are getting impatient. It will be great to hear "Play Ball!" again, and to see those daily odds on meaningful games once more, but we all need to remember some truths about early season betting.
    There is a strong temptation to bet too early and too often. Remember that we have to be in it for the long haul - there are about 200 days in a baseball season, and with 30 teams there are over 2400 games to be played, with 2400 possible totals plays also. So there are nearly 4900 possible plays ahead of us when we begin in April! We can take our time, and pick our best spots!

    The author tries and tries, but usually cannot overcome the temptation to play Opening Day games - like most baseball bettors. But often these are the worst games to play. Consider:

    * there is no current season history at all, except a possibly misleading exhibition game record;
    * the players have just traveled from warmer climates to the North or East and must adjust;
    * many players, especially rookies, have just survived final cuts and may be distracted while looking for temporary homes in the new city;
    * the local press (and national TV) is giving Opening Day a bigger buildup than most games get.

    But the uncertainties do not stop us - we end up playing those unpredictable openers anyway! In recent years we look for one or two teams whose good pitching combined with poor hitting makes them good 'under' plays early in the season (or the reverse, making their games 'over' possibilities). This can help in the first 10 days or so, especially to blunt the urge to bet a lot of games.
    The early-season is full of great possibilities and profits, and also big pitfalls for the unwary or uninformed bettor. The worst problem, as mentioned above, is making too many bets too early, before the season has any shape or form. Last year's and other historical records can be very helpful, but we all need a little dose of this year to put firm ground under our feet. Histories and last year's stats are a big help, but not the total answer. Too often a bettor jumps in hard and finds that an early bad streak spoils his whole season. We get a lot of calls in May from people who sound desperate. Everybody betting baseball should have enough of a bankroll and be cautious enough to be still in the game on Memorial Day, for sure. Everybody should be shooting for a profit all the time of course, but if you have had some fun and are breaking even and it is September, you have had a successful season by reasonable standards. Don't take that away from yourself in April.
    Other pitfalls are associated with the great opportunities of springtime betting. When a new season begins, opinions about the relative abilities of the teams often seem to be set in stone. The so-called experts (including me) have had months to say over and over again who improved in the off season and who fell back. Publicized free agents and other obvious changes in team makeup may cause a distorted view of the teams. This year teams like the Mets, Blue Jays, and White Sox among others made big acquisitions of new players. It is easy to dwell on those facts to the exclusion of all else, and automatically assume these teams will be better than they were last year. But those teams may not actually be any better and bettors can get badly burned by them. Many baseball gamblers were very disappointed by a couple of teams' poor records last season, after experts had built them up all winter. And teams full of hungry young players can be motivated to over-achieve by the high-profile high-salary opponents they face.
    Even when the experts are right, there is no guarantee that a good team will not start the season in a slump and still win a pennant. Sooner or later all good teams will slump, and all bad teams will win a few in a row. Not only can this happen at the beginning of the season, it seems to happen more often in April - actually the newness of the season magnifies the streak in our minds.
    FLEXIBILITY IS THE KEY TO A SUPERIOR APRIL!
    A few bad teams will start out winning (and those underdogs will profit you if they are merely breaking even in the W-L), and a few good clubs will start out losing. Some will revert to their expected level, and some will not. Despite what any of the experts say, the bettor who is flexible and not opinionated, open and not closed to the idea of expectations being wrong, will prosper almost every April. A few years ago a friend made his whole season in the early going, by being unafraid to bet on a pair of 'down' teams when expert opinion said they were losers. At one point that season Pittsburgh had a winning W-L record as road underdogs and the national TV media was still doing stories about how they could not win with such a low payroll. Last year the Tigers and Marlins performed unexpectedly well all year, and later in the season the Blue Jays improved considerably.
    We are told too often that money-payroll-bucks win games. Those who swallow that new cliché unquestioningly will suffer at times, because it is runs that win games, and they cannot be bought. The line takes these attitudes about payroll into account. Because of the public & media emphasis on salaries, we plan to look closely at the chances of all the poor-paid teams, those underdog possibilities.

    SPRINGTIME TIPS:

    * Overall spring training records are not to be trusted, but pay attention to the last week or ten days before season-opening for teams ready to start the season winning and pitchers who are throwing quality games. We will publish data on this right before the season begins.

    * Be wary of rookie starting pitchers who make the team in spring training. Often they have impressed by getting out minor league hitters and veterans not in shape, in warm weather. Wait until they have three starts under their belts. All things considered, the rookie who comes up in May after a month of minor league success is more apt to win for you than the spring training starter.

    * A starter's previous success or failure in April games can be a good (but not perfect) guide to his April this year.

    * In the first ten days of the year, make sure a team you bet on won its prior game - this small rule has prevented many bettors from jumping on a team as it started a losing streak. Not a bad rule (flexible variety) at any time of the year.

    * Look for weak links in starting rotations. Especially in recent years, some starters get their jobs by default. The worst of them will lose and lose until the manager sends them to the bullpen or the minors. We love to bet against them. Cash a few bets by going against obvious incompetents and starters who are 1.00 or more worse in ERA for last season than the other starters on their team. If they throw a winning quality start or a 4 or 5 Game Rating game, take them off the "bet against" list.

    * Cold weather seems to benefit hard-throwing pitchers. Cold, wet night games are the worst for hitters. Look for under opportunities in those. The opposite can be true when warmer weather sets in, around mid-May. Seasons often seem to change at the Ides of May - players get into better shape or recover from injuries, cold weather pitchers start having trouble, managers finally dump the incompetents, some managers may get dumped themselves, etc. Angles and trends that led to betting wins in April & early-May might abruptly reverse themselves.

    * Avoid betting against a top pitcher on an early winning streak. Never try to pick when a team's losing streak will end.

    * Flexibility and good information are important to betting success all season!
    Trying to read up, anyone have any experience/opinions on these two books?

    http://www.amazon.com/Baseball-Hacks...tit_11_rdssss1

    http://www.amazon.com/Baseball-Betwe..._tit_3_rdssss1
    How about we drop this topic? Everyone who did it a couple of years ago knows what they are doing. I have been doing modified versions of the chart from a couple of years ago with reasonable success. Talking about it here just makes it more likely we get "boated" or whatever....
    so true. when we were doing it, and posting the data and detail info, took about a week for the OS to run with the ball and adj 2nd half OL numbers. than we stopped and went underground with the root user directly to cell phones and that stopped it. season is close to over and every year moves a little, but general discussion is ok with out specific calc etc
    How about we drop this topic? Everyone who did it a couple of years ago knows what they are doing. I have been doing modified versions of the chart from a couple of years ago with reasonable success. Talking about it here just makes it more likely we get "boated" or whatever....

    Gee Fennis do you think the only thing they monitor is second half plays in cbb. What about anything that gets mentioned in this thread. Say I put out a couple of my formulas from last year and they start hitting at 70 percent. Do you think they would make a change? So what part of this thread is sacred or secrete? The chart I put up was from the NBA and based on Larry the Legend thread in the NBA

    Pops, no familiar with data mining, but I came across this website if you are not familiar with it. It has tons of downloadable data from the past.

    http://www.retrosheet.org/gamelogs/index.html
    http://www.retrosheet.org/game.htm
    http://www.retrosheet.org/schedule/index.html
    http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/index.html#Umpires

    MLB UMPIRES AND PITCH COUNT: Expansion and Contraction
    Avid baseball followers have all seen it! Suddenly, an Umpire's strike zone seems to expand or contract as the game reaches the later innings. We've all seen games that we pegged as OVERS suddenly make us smile as 7 runs go across the plate in the first 4 innings, and we have had times where those games end on the same 7 runs on the last pitch!
    Most frustrated fans tend to think that the "Umpire wanted to beat traffic", or that the "Umpire had money on the UNDER", but there may be a more simple, less sinister, reason for the sudden scoring droughts in baseball games. For that matter, how many games have you seen that were 0-0 in the 5th inning that ended in a final that exceeded 10 runs?
    What happens when a pitcher, like Kuroda (LAD), hits the 5th inning with a "no hitter" but leaves the stadium with an 8-5 Final? What happens when John Garland gets drilled by one hit after another, and one walk after another in the first 3 innings, but suddenly catches the edges of the zone and pitches a gem for his remaining innings of play?
    How many "no hitters" are accompanied by a large run total for the winning team?
    King Maker Factoid: Three of the last Four no hitters had final scores in which the winning team scored 6 or more runs. 7-0, 10-0, 4-0, 6-0....Since 2002 Five of the last Nine "no hitters" saw the winning team score 6 or more runs: 10,10, 8, 7, and 6!
    Shutouts become blowouts!
    Blowouts turn into Unders!
    "No hitters" are accompanied by high loser totals!
    Is this a coincidence? Or is there a psychological explanation for the fact that Umpire's tend to stay strikingly close to a 300 AVERAGE pitch count night during the span of a season?
    You would be surprized at the similarities between the pitch count of an OVER UMP and an UNDER Umpire!
    How does an Under Umpire like Laz Diaz maintain an average pitch count that is only 10 pitches less than Gerry Davis, one of the toughest OVER Umps in the league?
    Here are your splits:
    Gerry Davis 2007 22-12 OVER
    AVE Pitch Count per game 298.
    Average Runs, per game, in 2007: 9.60

    Lazarro Diaz 2007 22-14 UNDER.
    AVE Pitch Count per game 288
    Average Runs, per game, in 2007: 8.00
    *If you'll notice, there's almost 2 runs, per game, on average, in disagreement between these two umpires.
    I believe the roots of this phenomenon came during the years of sparring between the league and its officials under the reign of Sandy Alderson (Executive VP of the Commissioner's office: Now Padres CEO).
    The following is a reference to a NY Times Article that highlighted the viewpoint of Alderson in 2001. The statements are very telling!
    Source: Murray Chass, The New York Times, July 19, 2001, p. D1.
    "This summer saw a dramatic controversy in major league baseball. Sandy Alderson, baseball's chief of operations, was worried that games were running to long. In what became a problematic phrase, he instructed umpires to "hunt for strikes" in order to decrease the number of pitches that had to be thrown. Alderson cited a two-month study that purportedly found a "correlation between very high pitch counts and a misapplication of the strike zone." Pitch counts were averaging in the 280s, and he felt that figures in the 270s were attainable through more accurate umpiring. He said "I've told those averaging around 310, that's unacceptable and it's evidence of a very small strike zone and we have videotape to support it."
    One can only guess at the level of impact that opinion had on today's Umpires. The Umpires that we see today are a rather select group of workers with VERY LITTLE turnover in their ranks, so we have a large sample of Umps that were part of arguments that inspired the following articles:
    "Call More Strikes, Umpires are Told"

    by Murray Chass, The New York Times, July 14, 2001, p. D1
    "Looking at Pitch Counts is Unfair, Umpires Say"

    by Murray Chass, The New York Times, July 15, 2001, Sect. 8, p. 4.
    "Baseball Retreats in Dispute over Umpires' Pitch Counts"

    by Murray Chass, The New York Times, July 19, 2001, p. D1.

    I have tracked Umpires for a few years, and many of you know that I am reluctant to handicap a game without the presence of an umpire in the data. You've seen me use them in nearly 80% of all of my analysis. Most of my understanding of the importance of an Umpire stems from the turbulent exchanges between the Commissioners office and the legal representatives of the Umpires in 2001.
    This year, I ran into a stretch of 50% handicapping, and I had to tear down my systems and reassess my numbers. Frankly, since the advent of Quest-Tec, the Umpires seem to have taken the pitch counts of their games VERY seriously. The normal tendencies of certain umpires took a serious turn, in many cases, and the effect on the lines, and especially totals in certain games was astounding.
    When I went through my numbers, I saw the pitch counts begin to stand out!

    *I have come to believe that an Umpire may be inclined to call more strikes if the game begins to exceed the percieved 300 pitch mark at the end of a game. This is only my opinion, based on my own research. Further analysis will reveal whether the trend is worth expanding upon.
    But the pitch counts of Umpires have been attacked so much in recent years, and I find it hard to believe that they don't have an interest in maintaining a number that falls as close to the "percieved baseline" at the end of the year.
    For instance, if an OVER Umpire has walked 7 batters in the first 3 innings, and several hits occur after long at bats, then the pitch count starts to approach a high number almost immediately. This would push the total pitches far past 300, so it may be possible that the Umpire might open up the strike zone to stifle the pitch count.
    A good example is this recent game between the Angels and White Sox: John Garland and Javier Vazquez got severely touched up in a game that was set at 8.5 for a total. I felt as if the Sox would attack Garland because he was facing his old team and he had a really tough OVER Umpire to deal with. Garland has trouble against this type of zone, and it showed! He walked 4 batters, gave up 7 hits and reached 109 pitches by the end of the 6th inning. The trouble was that Vazquez hit 111 pitches after 6 innings, so the pitch count was sitting at 220 with 3 full innings to go!
    Frankly, most of the guys that pegged the OVER were VERY happy after 5 runs were scored BEFORE the bottom of the 2nd inning! But suddenly, the first pitch, called strike came into effect!
    Here's the Box Score:
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
    CHW (20-20) 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 10 1
    LAA (24-19) 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 9 0

    There were only 88 more pitches in the 7th, 8th, and 9th (6 total relievers!), and Garland and Vazquez's pitch counts were in severe decline before the 5th inning.
    *8 out of 12 batters looked at a called first pitch strike between the bottom of the 4th inning and the beginning of the bottom of the 6th inning! That number is fairly staggering for two pitchers that were having trouble finding the zone in the beginning!
    This is scandalous talk, and simply an observation by a gentleman that has followed the Umpires for many years. But one cannot easily dismiss certain numbers that back up the assumption that an Umpire's strike zone is more malleable than we once thought it was. The sample-size is currently too small to make a strong assessment of the moving zone.
    This is certainly not a sign of cheating in any way! This is potentially the sign of a psychological adherence to the rules and expectations of Major League Baseball. I'm basing this assumption on documented altercations between the league and its officials in the past over this very issue.

    As time goes by, we will examine the dangers of assuming that an Umpire is an OVER Ump or an UNDER Ump, based solely on the peripherals. There are extensive mental, physical, and statistical issues that affect the total, and outcome of a game.

    It's important to note that Umpires are not in a position to "cheat", nor do they attempt to alter the outcomes of a game. This is simply a mere discussion about the possibility of a psychological expansion and contraction of the strike zone as the pitch counts stagnate or inflate.

    My findings are still a work in progress, but it's my opinion that the angry comments of disgusted fans, managers, and yes, gamblers, has a POSSIBLE basis in fact.
    Clearly, the umpires would think my assumptions are preposterous, and maybe they are. This is what an unidentified umpire thought of the concept:
    ''It's insane,'' the umpire said of the pitch-count instructions, speaking on the condition he not be identified. ''Call this pitch, don't call that pitch. You can't umpire that way.'' (Chass, NY Times
    TWJD, I would love to try and quantify some of these stats. For instance. Can we quantify how many runs a "High humidity" adds to a game, on average? Can we quantify other factors that might push it towards an over or under. I realize that everythign can't be quantified, and not everything can be pegged down to a "rule". But the more general trends we can find. the better.

    I'll do some research on the humidity to find out, i fear that 2400 data points may not be enough to overcome the variance, but we will see what I can come up with
    i will never bet a game ov/un without knowing who's behind the plate. Infact i'll use multiple sources to make sure the 1st day of the schedule is correct when getting the info.

    Sports Options is now my key source as well as the fastest for getting this info as they have been the most accurate as well when changes etc come up. Never did the pitch count think for them. Like anything else you need to collect data and see if it really applies over the long run etc. I had many things with respect to collecting data that proved worthless, than dropped it and added others. Plus it's not like hoops etc where you get a chance during the game to make another bet

    The problem is the data is out there, but not in the way that you want.

    Both MLB and retrosheet have pitch by pitch accounts of games going back at least 3 years (Retrosheet goes back to like 1888). They also list Umpires. So if we have every pitch that was thrown in a game, and we have the umpire name.. we could write a script that counts the pitches, and outputs how many total pitches were thrown each game. And who the umpire was.

    Probably wouldnt be too hard, and might only take 3 hours. Is it worth it? if you tell me it is, i'll work on it.

    I picked up a couple books on the sabermetrics. Reading "Baseball between the Numbers" right now. It's more about situational hitting, is this player worth his slaray, and the like. But talks about many new mesurments that could be far more valuable in analysis than something as simple as batting avg. Will let you know how the read goes.
    i will NOT be posting my bets or plays. the spreadsheets will have all the key data and facts. there will be input and discussions within the thread or i might comment on some game, weather or ump in specific situations or maybe something i like etc. there will be alot more people besides me that will have a very good handle on the use of the data etc. so just pay attention to the numbers and keep your eyes and ears open and post anything you feel that might be of interest or value. i expect well over 200,000 views this year and prob 10,000 posts as well.

    it would be something that would be need if you were going to develope a data base for projecting winners etc. i think software is still years away to enable you to get close, but it's sure getting much better. tks
    Ok Pops remember you said there are no stupid questions. Its game time, what are you looking for in the spreadsheet that tells you this is a good bet? How many things have to line up or is there one thing you look for? Do you wait to make your bet just before the games starts to see which way the lines moves? Lets say you see 10 games you like do you bet them all or do break down and find maybe two or three that you think are the ones?
    Let me see if I can make simplify this, you have provided us a pond full of fish (the spreadsheet), how do we find the keepers? I understand we all see things different and we need to find our own bait that cathes the fish and share it, just trying to figure out how to bait the hook.
    tw: i'm looking trying to find the games that will have the largest ML moves b4 they start betting them. but that's only me. the data is for what ever your look for and all depends on what and how your betting. the basic pdws has all the key info as a starting point. where you go from there is all up to you
    i never found anything decent that did the job, so mine is home grown. my kgb buddy came to us and stayed with me at the ranch for a month and prog mine. than we spend the past couple of years adding to it. it's always a wip as OS always changing formats and adding new ones etc. you would be hard pressed to make it work w/o 8-10 solid ones and 50-100k line of credit at each. plus they need to accept large OL best early which is getting tougher every day. even Pinny is holding back

    Also, I am trying to figure out this whole spreadsheet, but I just don't know what to look for. What does pitcher Pivots mean? I feel like I am going to need a lot of hel pfiguring this out. What should I be looking for and/or inputing in the excel sheet? And one last one for now, Do i need the 2008 master final file?
    just like any sport, every years is different, especially baseball

    i would think that you should d/l the 2008 master if only to start using the data and see what power you have at your finger tips. nothing there you can find on the web for every game you looking for. but a few seconds vs a few hours. your call

    you dont need to input anyting into the spreadsheet unless you feel other info that is not there is important and want to bounce it against other variables b4 you make your bets. again that would be your call

    btw if you do thing something else is so important that you can win w/o knowing that info, let me know what it is that you want and what site it comes from. if it's all that good i'll just have it added to one of the macro'
    hey pops just a quick question, I think I saw it asked but couldn't find an answer to it...for someone like me who (I have no time to go shoveling through all that data) unfortunately, I WISH I COULD....but here's my question....will you be posting plays? what your playing? what you think should be stayed away from etc. thanks in advance and I've heard a lot about you and was psyched to see you on here.
    ecc: on a daily basis NO. from time to time YES. when? IDN
    "Hate to blow smoke but-lot of interest here. You will only get out what you put in. Me roughly 2 hours plus per day studying data. When you have to break the data down to find what does work figure a day for sure. You know like 8 hours and that is on top of your normal stuff. Not blowing smoke just stating facts. So when you sum that all up you spend 2 hours per day from May until September with a couple days off at the break. Those couple days get made up as you have to find what works after the break. Good luck to all that venture into the world of 25 meg"

    This is what I did last year to make all that data work. If anyone in here wants to get anything out that is what is required in my book. If you don't do the work you don't get anything in return.

    I am sure once some data starts to collect for this year I will point you in a couple of directions. I don't go by past events so a new year for me as well as all of you. Just be patient.
    i wish i only spend that few of hours per day. making money betting sports is way more work that really working. think about that b4 you think about quitting your job and doing this full time 10-12 hrs per day. every day and not one min of that is watching any sport or talking heads, as that's useless
    a ton of my data is specifically designed for scalps. as you all know you normally get 3 to 5 point scalps, and from time to time double that. so i look for games where the line could move much more than that based upon the teams, pitchers, un reported injuries etc and get on those early for max bets that's why i have a bunch of info in there that most of you will never look at. i dont have a predictive model built into any of my programs yet, but based on what i have i might do a full dog or fav scalp to double the gain based on the pitching match ups and other factors

    you dont have to produce the data, unless i die, i'll do it daily and post the spreadsheet in my thread the night b4 for anyone to d/l
    pops, I'm having trouble finding data on each mlb starting pitcher's average fastball velocity. Do you, or anyone else, know where I can find this information? I'm working on gathering info on pitchers in order to group them into categories for my handicapping. I'll share whatever data I end up with if you'd like. Thanks
    that's something worth doing. you want to know when you have a breaking pitcher going and very very low humidity. i dont have a clue, but if you can find scouting reports is where i'd look
    mlb has been trying to speed up the game. a few articles ref that have already been posted here. with the roid now in low gear and the smaller zone more unders than over were the rule last year and could be more again this year as well. just need to see what the line maker guys do. they then to be higher early on, so we'll see how they adjust

    No, I do not post any plays. I am just giving the information tools that have helped me in the past to help choose. Follow this thread with Pops PDWS for good information. I am a big believer in the WS. Also, a big believer of how a pitcher fairs against a particular team, at that stadium, day vs night as well as how a team plays against one another in their past meetings. Go back a few pages, and I have posted the 2009 schedules for both leagues and it lists how a team has done against one another for the past 3,5 and 7 years at that particular park. As well as o/u for the past three years at that park as well. Just a couple of tools that "I" use. One thing about baseball though is information overload. Utilize on what you think may work for you. If you use too much information, then that is when you can get into trouble. The main info I use has alot to do with the pdws. Outside of this, I use the pitchers info, team vs team, umpires along with weather forecast. Seems like alot but, just a portion of info that baseball supplies. It has worked for me in the past and it will work for me in the future. One bit of advice as well, stay away from any favorite over -140...not worth it imo. No matter how good the stats may lean to that fav. There are almost 2500 games over a course of the season, so you can pick and choose wisely and wait for the opportunities to come to you.
    GOOD LUCK!!
    i'm impressed. hope your data mining most of that. going to need to do some thinking on this one and see how it could be incorporated into my data base. you should add another col between E-F (calc field for IPPG Innings Pitcher Per Game) your looking for how many innings a starting pitcher will go from the start of the season to the end of the season. that what way you will know when to expect the pig pens) would be a better tool for o/u as well.. with what both of us have were only 1 more away from having the predictive model i'm looking for. that one is Team Starting Line UP, Batting Avgs of Each Player, And Individual Batting Avg vs the Starting Pitcher for the previous and current year.

    on the tampa thing. keep a data base for the inside temp. hopefully i have something that will give us outside temp and we'll see if any correlation between the two. will be nice to find out if it's really the outside air or someone on the inside cooking the books
    numbers are a big part of capping and betting any sporting event. with that said, throughout the year there will be some very good info come out way. few years back a simple comment lead to once of the most successful hoops season that I ever had.

    it's all about reading and objective thinking and asking the right questions
    you will find that many many people use the PDWS data as a starting point, and that along with other factors will result in a bunch of "plays" being posted within this thread. way way more than you will ever imagine. but most important they will not just be hunch or gut feeling or no way phil will beat tb etc, but based on solid numbers etc. gems will come in many forms. but not from talking heads
    ard, you are correct. unlike almost all the other threads, which i consider coin flippers, homies, best guess or talking heads etc. it's about being objective, looking at data and conditions and situations etc. i get as much or more than i put in. once my macro and programming is finished, i'm just pulling data with the click of a mouse button and it's done. but i'm just pulling in what garbage the web sites make available. what i find is that the people that look at the data, know the pitchers and teams see and know things that i dont

    the more lookers the more we can find that not right

    eg. Wrong Listed Pitchers, showing R vs L and vice versa and bad calc. all of which lead to garbage in the data base. once i put the data together my head is up my ass looking at numbers etc. if they are not right to begin with im SOL
    Love what you have here. My only question and maybe Pops can answer this as well. Aren't there so many factors between each season that its hard to add up that Brian Bannister was xx-xx in April indoors? It seems like all the data is going to back to the mean of everything? Possibly I'm way off on this assumption and feel free to say that I'm wrong.

    Anyways, thanks for your work and if you need some help, please advise.

    Also, pops, you said:"what both of us have were only 1 more away from having the predictive model i'm looking for. that one is Team Starting Line UP, Batting Avgs of Each Player, And Individual Batting Avg vs the Starting Pitcher for the previous and current year. "
    every year is different. especially the season b4 and after the pitcher gets a large contract (that info is not there)

    ARD: i dont think there's a chance in hell with anyone coming up with that 3rd part right now. i know a bunch of people that work where they put the lines together, and a couple came over to my place and said that what i had was even better than what they were using. i know that the sports networks and mlb has the data but not sure how to get access. once you step up to that level you need to move from excel to SQL or Orcal

    i doubt i'll see it in my life time but as processing power grows it will happen
    ARD....

    Yes, it is easy to say that one year is different from another. As Pops mentioned earlier many factors can make a pitcher that lasts less than five years to one that is a Hall of Famer. We just have to capitalize on the ones whom are gonna be great before everyone figures it out. The pitching splits just helps guide and give a gauge what a pitcher has done in during his major league stint in situations that are basic. There are some extemely disturbing trends that can help one out make that decision much easier than just saying that Oswalt is gonna beat Atlanta anytime he faces them. When in fact that in his career he 0-2 in 5 starts with almost a 6.50 era. Being a -180 to -200 pitcher that game gives me something to look at to see if Atlanta would be a play. Its about value and mlb players are human too. They may have it in thier head that they cannot beat this team not matter what they do. They may not feel comfortable a certain park or the climate in April rather then June and they may only be extremley effect during night games rather than the day games. Numbers do not lie!! This is just a tool. Unlike any other sport your able to concentrate on individuals rather than a team.
    You guys just need to be a little patient. Data mining is one thing and already said I would help a bit. Big thing here right now is there is nothing to mine. Not one game in the books. About all there is to look at is umps and use a trend from years gone by maybe weather. Another thing and it would be from last year is how many of the big favorites covered in the cool month of April. A few years ago a guy tried all this prior year trend stuff only to fall on his ass as he could not fall on his money as it was gone.

    you either have someone helping you or your excel skills have improved greatly. you are close to what you need to get to set 2. do you know how to use drop down and linking (with what you collect someone sure does) if no i'll upload an example for you. but what you need to so is just do each them you want and link 9 rows for the line up than tie those names to the pitchers and the data so it come up. you would do that for both the home and away teams. than you need to run your limited simulation against that data to come up with hits and on base numbers for each

    for there you need to start capturing that data for each game simulation in a master data base like i have with my 2008 master (you will have my 2009 master data to bump it against)

    step 3 is the hard part to find a way to convert the hits and on base of each team vs the starting pitchers into projected final scores. that part i need to think about. maybe l12 or some derivative out of work wall street guy could help there

    bet on effort you get an a for the work you did on this as well as the other sheet you did
    just a general comment to those that bet any sports etc. other that my own data bases and programs the one program that i use the most is

    Sports Options Pro. I wont leave home w/o it. i wish it had been around 30 years ago. would have save me big sins in the past
    pops what do you use Sports Options pro for? scalps? what other info/value would the regular idiot get out of it
    "Pro" is one of the subscription options for $200 more each month.

    my personal opinion is that the break point is that amount or more per game bet and more than 1 bet per day
    yes. so the decision is how much you bet and if not knowing key data fast is not important than skip it. but personally i would not bet any sport w/o it
    A few tidbits from last April. Did not include March as this year the season kicks off in April.
    Home teams won 217 and lost 186
    There were 178 overs and 209 unders
    If you break home teams down by favorite and dog you get
    Favorite won 170 and lost 139 money lines will tell if you won money or lost
    Dogs went 47-47 so immediately you went 50-50 and won money.

    So first lesson. Take last years data and break it down based on the the categories in col AU. Look to see if there is a range of the money line categories that offer value. My guess there is. I may even go so far as to do this exercise myself as it looks promising.

    Remember prior data does not promote future results.

    If someone wants to do the work and place the results here I will be give you my opinion as well.
    ctp- a couple of thoughts about the game tomorrow night
    1. looking at the first month of last season, it was worth playing the dog when philly was favored at home
    2. looking over the past two years neither one of the pitchers is cy young out of the gate
    3. I don't think anything I have looked at thus far warrants a play, but if i was leaning one way or another I would go atl and ov
    Hello all, The knowledge you bring is incredible. I download the spreadsheet and have been studying it since to become familiar with it. My question is, when i download the pdws, the pivot table example, etc i cant open them because it says the file is not a recognizable format. do i have to do anything to get these to work, like rename them with a different extension? Thanks in advance

    With that said if you want to bet home dogs, in those 3 categories only, look at the national league. Don't know if I have the data nor the will to look back at prior years to see if the national league stood out then. I remembered that one of the leagues did way better than the other as home dogs last year. Good thing or a bunch would be jumping off a bridge soon.

    Remember this is last years data so no clue if it holds up this year.

    Some other guy on here asked about line moves. To me that is a science in itself. It is all there on that file. Take a look and report back. I tracked them all last year. All is each book that the RX has in its free odds category. For one they change after the game starts. So if you see totals with say 9 minus 30 a few minutes before game time it may just move to 9.5 or 8.5 depending on which side the minus is on over or under. Every thing I did last year was on sides. One of the books works for a while then it all changes.

    To sum it all up I was so impressed with all the work I did on it last year that I will not bother this year as I feel a waste of time.
    Sorry Shale but I have seen it all before. You see when Pops left the last time I took it upon myself to finish the year. There were some 200000 hits to the thread but in reality about 5 people did all the work. Then a few asked me to help out the next year when Pops was gone so I saw that number of going down to 2 so I said no way.

    Now as Pops has said ask questions now as when we all go under fire finding games no time for much teaching. So with that I laid out a pretty simple file and even told them what cols to look at. I don't mind helping but now is just way easier than when I am looking at data. Guys keep asking in this thread how to do this or that and I offered to teach. I really am not a hard nose but just as Pops said I won't be giving out free picks assembling info like you did yes but picks no way. For one I don't want to be responsible for someone losing or winning for that matter. You can give out ten winners in a row but come back with three losers and they want to hang you.

    I have been more vocal here than normal. I generally sit in the back of school and keep my mouth shut. I have done an enormous amount of work helping put this all together. Not so much this sheet that he has but prior years leading up to it. I did an enormous amount of work on the old cbb second half stuff and nba for that matter as well so I get around okay with this data stuff.

    Questions ask and if I can provide an answer I will.
    Sorry no offense to you. I did not know to what extent you went through to put everything together. I stopped around the time pops stopped as well. Was not going to do anything until I seen him back in action. But, if you feel that way CTP, keep it to yourself and Pops then. I am going to try to do my best to help out, but in the next week or so, I am trying to put together the splits for all the pitchers as I am way late to the game to start the season. Also, I need to familize myself again with the pivots from '08 and just have an opportunity to focus in on some of the things. Just so much info, just hard to be able to narrow down to a consistent edge week in and week out.

    I may even have questions for you as well. I am gonna try to post those series situations for all the games as each series goes by. I may even post a week at a time due to scheduling purposes.
    Sorry ARD. Life is a bitch then it gets worse. The only reason I started this was for something to do and I personally don't like April. Pops does his own thing like that scalping stuff. I use data. So April I really don't have anything to go by so I wanted to see how home dogs do in April. Just that simple. Is it a good thing- really don't know. Would I look for home dogs versus the temp below 49 degrees NO. Just very risky and Pops will contest that I am pretty conservative okay real conservative.

    Now I feel better someone did the exercise and learned some interesting facts. Also this is how I use the data. Another way is through all those pivot tables.
    what we and i are looking for are two different things. all depends on what type of bets you want to make and what type of bettor you are.

    just because i'm looking for one thing does not make it applicable to everyone situation. just like when men look at women. everyone sees something different.

    to me the pdws is my starting point for the next's days action and is set in stone and the basic for anyting i do from that point forward. no different than if you start out the day to build a dog house. you get the lumber and tools you need first and go from there

    1. Home and Away Difference of the starting pitchers ERA (col AZ than BA)
    2. O/U era diff Col BK
    3. ML Cat Home CAT col
    4. Streaks Home and Vis (cols BE thru BH)
    5. Any possible errors in my data which might have cause these number differences

    so out of a full schedule, and based on the above it will pull out a few games that i need to get other factors like

    1. weather condidtions
    2. HP umpire
    3. pitchers record vs opposing team

    are just a few of the thing i look at, that i start using my master data base and find other patters and trends. but you guys are all much younger and smarter than i am so you will know other things that are important and get that info as well.

    and most important make sure you read ever thread in every sports forum, watch and listen to every talking head, and watch every pitch of every game played
    check my post #532 as a starting point, many other that use the data will point out thing that they find as will i from time to time. i had 15 day with a ton of time to answer all these questions in detail and go over any pivots trends ets. and most of those days didnt get one question. once the season starts im scalping from the time i get up to when the last game starts so not much time for #101. the best way i can explain it is that if you had a job working for a whore house checking for VD on free blow job night with a line of people thirty blocks long waiting to get in, so you had less than a min to check each one. if you miss one your fired or pay a big fine. nothing fun about it, it's a job and you do it for pay. so no time today

    Now ARD and Shale see why I get upset. Around post 526 I put in a very simple exercise to follow with the result showing promise. Since then there have been no less than 2 posts claiming I don't know what to do or where to start. If I were to start learning I would go back to post 526 and look at what I said. If you get it good for you then go to the post where I put about the most powerful formula you can use in excel. You can take that and link it up 4 or 5 times for different data. In the next post I will put another thing you can do with that formula.
    I understand man, I can see it too. I know what will happen here. I'm just saying that there is someone here who wants to learn. It probably took way too long to put together what I did last night(about 30-40 minutes). I want to learn how pops puts together his sheet too because I realize sooner or later he will disappear. If you want to ignore the idiots on here and teach through PM, I'm all for it.

    Remember, 20 percent of people do 80 percent of the work. It's the 80/20 rule and if you've worked in any office, you know this is at least partially true.
    ARD I really don't mind helping as long as there is someone to help. Like I said seems like most of this falls on deaf ears.

    NBA is a real bitch. You have to stay on top of it constantly. There are at least 3 seasons in the NBA. First you have before xmas, then up to the break and after the break is tough for second half stuff as the highly paid individuals don't perform. I can give some examples if you wish but pretty much over with this year.

    Another thing. I think the books assign someone to watch Pops thread. Laugh if you will but you can not beat up on them anymore in cbb second half stuff. Lines are way too tough. I feel same holds true for baseball. An example, and I hope it is not true is the 48 degree temp thing unless they stayed under by 2 runs.
    Shale big time. CBB used to be a piece of cake. Easiest money I ever got. Not anymore. Lines are dif hardly ever catch a middle. As an example. When a good sized favorite was getting their ass kicked or simply losing the second half line was the same as the first. Used to be half to 3/4 of the opener. Any way what used to work does not. Maybe I will pound thru the cbb file and give some examples then again maybe not. CBB file is way easier to work with than bases.

    In regards to setting up baseball. There are no macros you need. Everything is done. I have my own file. Set up exactly like the pdws. I copy it and paste it into my sheet below he previous days games. If I have any formulas that I am using they are off to the right and I simply drag them down. If you open the example I put in here that is it in a nut shell without the formulas. A lot of the stuff to the right is what I use on that sheet minus about 50 columns.

    your choice. all of the data that goes into the master spreadsheet comes directly from the pdws and that alone. like someone said i'm not going to live forever (and when i looked at the picture of me and my brother when he was here it could be sooner than later) so it would be nice if you knew how to put one together. i will be posting a master 2009 spreadsheet (which is identical to what you already have in the 2008) but using the this years data and the 2008 deleted. not sure how often i'll do it. worse case at the end of each month, but could be earlier to give everyone easy path to keeping current. right now i think its more important that you try to address the aspects of what's in the pdws. not much in the way of analysis to do for 2009. even the pdws uses the 2008 era and whip numbers. use the 2008 to try and understand how to use the questions and answer thing using pivot tables
    t only takes 30 seconds for me to update the pdws but than i need to update my master. which is taking me about 6 min. way to much time to be spending on data collection vs analysis and scalping. so i'm going to change over to the format that i posted in #607. that data is ready to use and you can create any pivot tables you desire. just remember that it's still a work in progress. all the headers in yellow have not been complete, most of which are 30 and 60 day trends that dont mean shit right now. i've asked oilbarrel to move his calc from my older mlb master into the new format

    also there's a col in red. that's just simple tracking data i'm doing now for temp compaired to what mlb reports to see how close the two are. they were almost the same last night but i'm not sure if they changed the temp after the game started. i'll put there numbers as soon as they come out this morning and check again at night. i'm going to use that site for my data collection of humidity as the format is ok (needs some major programming to adj to there naming but should be finished soon)

    never fat finger if possible. learn to create macro's or have somone else do them for you and work out a deal where you use the results to spend you time capping and finding decent spots to bet into. you get something and they get something. both happy faces. 6 min does not seem like much, but to me it's a lifetime
    there are some already in the 2008 master on this site. they are the simple ones. you need to learn how to use VB (visual basic) to create or edit them. complex ones are way over my capabilities so my kgb friends do them for me. ctp does some as well but his are way different that the way i like to see them. but each get the job done, all depends on if your right or left handed

    macro editor and creator is also built into excel to help getting started. remember your not a programmer but data user. just pay some fucken dick head to give you what you need done. there all standing in the welfare lines with the sports bettors anyway and will prob work cheap
    Thanks....soo very true bout the welfare lines. Gotta run for now, have to actually work my real job for awhile. Gonna try all pitcher splits done so I can start playing here within the next couple of days. If it were not for the St. Louis pig pen, the pivot data that I pulled up the nite before last would have went 2-0 with ease. May be something to look at for the month as I know it has to be f-ing cold in the mid-west and the east as the high today in Tampa is 66 with 15-20mph winds.

    Just updated the pitchers for final opening day rosters. I may just do this on a bi-weekly basis just to see whom is up and down. Couple of teams I noticed that could be in real bad shape as far as pig pens go are the Padres, A's, Yankees (middle relief) and Washington. Never heard of any of those guys for the most part.
    i get way fucken more than what i put in. all the info i'm looking for comes to me in the long run vs spending hours reading threads and web sites etc. just getting one small piece of info will give me way more than i'll ever put in. i know it costs money, but i get along w/o having the info like i get from Sports Options. i prob made 10 time more just yesterday than what it will cost me for the entire month

    in this business time and info equals=mo money vs getting someone picks that couldnt tell the difference between his ass and a whole in the wall with two guesses
    That is there problem is they have no idea wtf is going on. If you would open your eyes for a minute and stop looking for just picks only, you would have found that under in the Cubs/Astro game was solid, u would have also found out the chart that I posted a couple a days ago concerning weather and temp. If you would have done your own research you would have found some gems in the pitchers splits that I have posted up to now along with the first series of games and their numbers for won/loss at that location along with past three years of over/unders. That is just some of the crap that I have posted and nothing to do with Pop's stuff, now go figure it out yourself.
    open lettter to anyone that didnt read much of the theread. so i doubt that anyone will read this either as it not highlighted in bold, or say's 20-0, bet the farm, GOY etc. anyone is welcome to post any games or trends that they see fit based on either the data that in any of the spreadsheets that are posted or other info that they fine. most of my action is scalping, which none of you have the capabilities to do anyway. if i see something that is worth saying about a game or situation. i'll post it. eg. i mention that if you were a fav bettor early in the season, wait until post time, and the OL will drop on most ML fav. i dont respond to who do you like or bet today period. there thousands of threads on the web that have guess, GOY or coin flips, so go there if you want. most have nice big bold letters and large attention whore banners hoping someone will show up and give them attention. this thread will have well over 10,000 posts and 250,000 hits so it would be easy to get lost w/o a little reading. although in most cases you should only need to start at the 1st post of the day which is in bold.
    whats CAT
    when you do analysis of data it's impossible to look at pure end points as you would have hundreds of points of data to look at which are meaningless

    so i put those in ranges (which i call cat). i've posted all the cat ranges i use up here a few time etc. but that way you can look at them in buckets. eg. pitchers with era of 1.02 to 1.50 etc and so on for all the ones that just dont end in a few simple ranges like o/u etc
    Is this the same system as two years ago?

    Everyone takes turns fucking the dog for a week and hanger queens get shut out?

    Let me know when it's my turn, Pops.
    no turns required. all the hanger queens get it for free as well. but when i do 2nd half cbb picks sent out directly to your sell phone once that starts that will only be for those that contributed (finding errors on my spreadsheet, or pitching changes, ump changes or early notifications, find trends and post info here from time to time. so you get a free pass
    Think Pops has mention a handful of times before that if you want to post a play for discussion good or bad then go ahead that is your own perogative. I just believe that he will ever rarely post a play. Since most of the time he is scalping, me on the other hand will utilize pivot tables amongst the other info posted on here to make a play until I have the opportunity to further my use of excell. Even though I have posted the info the last couple of days for team vs. team schedule and the pivot table or two, I have not made any plays. Trying to get out of the mode of enter info 99% and only leaving 1% for analzying as mentioned in a prior post by pops.
    maybe. not sure about a shit load, but two could be defined by some as a shit load. how many web sites to you go to each day to get the data your looking for and what do you do with it after you find and and where do you store it for future reference and how do you get it again when you need to reference it and how much time to you spend doing that for every game that is being played every day. those spreadsheet that i post daily, and do all of those lookup and data finds for everyone and put all that shit load of data into one place for anyone that want them to look at

    yep, i guess having everything all in one place might be a little out of the norm and confusing to many
    no proper etiq. if you are looking at my data and see something wrong or dont understand it. or you have data etc and your is either the same or different. just ask the fucken question. i'm not an etiq guy. in fact pretty ranchy if you ask me. when i have the time i'll try to answer, but normally someone on here will pony up the info
    not much time as the clock is ticking.

    i started the mlb thread almost 15 days b4 the start of the season and posted all the spreadsheets and data base i use for capping and betting, plus instructions on how to use them. i sat at the puter almost 10 hours every fuck day and asked post after post if anyone had any questions on the data and how to use it etc. i didnt care what kind of question anyone wanted, and was glad to help out. i know for a fact that at least 500 people d/l the spreadsheets etc. i sat here for those 15 days with my thumb up my ass. you have that many people d/l and only a couple of questions. my dick is still sore from beating off so much just to have something to do

    now the season starts, i'm putting in 15 hours a day betting scalps, and everyone is confused and dont understand shit or how to use it etc

    one thing i dont have is pitty. start with post #1 and read. right now it only 700 posts, but will be 10,000 by the end of the season. than ask questions. or just start at the 1st post of the day and you will get the. the spreadsheets are one the following web links for every game put into one place for anyone that wants them to have so that they dont have to go to those sites (or any other sites and get the data and write it down look at or what ever you do with them)

    http://www.statfox.com/mlb/umpiremain.asp
    http://www.donbest.com/EN/main/mlb/mlb_odds.html
    http://www.donbest.com/EN/main/mlb/mlb_scores.html
    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp...ilmlb_sfnmlb_1
    http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/weather/

    if all of that is so fucken hard to understand, than you should not be betting baseball or infact any sports

    later

    forgot one:
    http://www.statfox.com/mlb/pitcherre...sortby=pitcher
    Pops said in just a few posts or pages ago if you have a pick post it. This may porove to be a good learning process for everyone. Don't be afraid you are leaking out some super secrete as from what I have read no one will go back and do the same work anyway.

    So post a way. I should be around part of the day anyway. If the play was from yesterday all the better as we maybe able to prove why it won or lost.
    that's a good way to find out. the only one's i dont want to see are the coin flipper w/o any data facts to back up there position

    a few of the touts pick shit like that. eg. bos never loses when they lost the last game by 20 if the weather was 105 and the pres is going to attend the game and the 1st base coach got a blow job from the short stop 3 hours b4 the start of the game. you know those bs picks
    all the data is not available yet, but just to have everything in the same place i'm uploading all the files so they can all be in one place.

    couple of items to note

    1. i wanted to also put the umps into the pdws but the source still done not have them available. you can get from any one of many sources. one i like to use is in the link below but most of the want to get you money sites have them. some better than others

    http://www.statfox.com/mlb/umpiremain.asp

    2. on the pdws est humidity is not being pulled automatically from the below site. it only has the current day games so i wont be able to put it into thur when i upload it when the lines come out. they are on the sheet for todays games now. the site link is below:

    http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/weather/
    3. fully 2008 mlb master in rar compresses format. suggest you use this until enough data is in the new master data base

    4. txt read me file on what all the cols of data are for. most of the key data is already setup for pivots. if you dont know how to use the mouse and simple drop downs for q&a your shit out of luck. no time to teach you how to use them now

    5. my 2009 mlb master. anything you see in yellow means that i need to fix those macro, but the data is correct. i've also added the same pivots from the 2008 master but still need to do the ones for:

    a. Line Moves
    b. Ov & Un Analysis
    c. Home W/L

    i'll do my best to try to finish up everything by tomorrow, but so far this year a bunch of very large scalps cause by wtf knows and not going to drop what i'm doing just to update a file that shouldnt be used anyway until enough data history is available

    6. the txt file should also apply to the 2009 but the cols are in different order from the 2008. i did this to save 6 min per day in updating

    7. big thing to remember i have auto calc turned off in all of my spreadsheets so make sure to hit f9 if you enter any data for it to refresh the sheet. all of the pivots get refreshed by using the Refresh All, which i do b4 i upload the sheet

    i will be doing that again starting with next season for both cbb and nba to everyone that made a contribution here from time to time. it will go directly to either your cell phone or computer. the program know what the score is by each team and picks up the 2nd half lines outmatically and runs it against the data base and model and if a play shows up it punches it out to everyone on the list
    i spend countless hours collecting data with respect to sagarin for every sport and never found it useful and simple enough for it to make any kind of an impact on anything. so i just dropped it. if you can show us how we should be using it and where we can collect it automatically on a consistent basis it would be a piece of cake to add. plus i've never found anywhere where i can get past history of those numbers. maybe didnt look hard enough
    Not to makes things anymore confusing for anyone but this website also list valuable info as far as MLB matchups, databases, trends, injuries, pitchers logs, etc.

    Hope this helps

    http://www.ats411.com/MLB/default.aspx

    Here's a few reads on humidity.

    http://www.ultimatecapper.com/sports...rticles-42.htm

    http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/285/
    those are not even close to the major reason for the o/un with respect to the temp and humidity effecting the o/u.

    this i got from x big pitchers who were know for being dr of balls

    very low humidity makes it harder for junk ball pitchers to get there ball to spin and move in very thin air. thus the need for them to put substances on the ball etc and that does not help as much either. so if no ball spin or move. you have what is know in some circles as the flat fast ball. when batters know only one type pitch is coming, results in more pitches being hit

    Pops - only thing i can think of, comparing MOB to ERA, may be how the team is playing behind these guys. MOB, to the best of my knowledge, has all MOB, regardless of reason behind them being on base. ERA isn't going to. In effect I'm equating MOB, and I don't have good #'s nor have i fully thought this out, of a projected score for a team.

    I've used MOB in three areas. The first was when MOB of pitcher A was better than pitcher B and pitcher A was an underdog. The second use of MOB was when pitcher A and pitcher B had a very high MOB combined with total being low. No set formula there it was more eyeballing the data. The third use was when Pitcher A had a MOB better than Pitcher B of at least 4. Even if Pitcher A was at a significantly higher ML favorite I took the play.

    I don't have anywhere near enough tracking though as I would like. I used the first system for a long time and generally had good results. Last year the system crapped out on me big time and I got into chasing plays and it wasn't pretty.

    Ultimately I need to track, review and see what works, combined with other factors. So yes, I think it's worthwhile but it's just a small part of the key. If it's not readily harvestable then I don't think it's 100% required but it gives one more look, one more opinion on the quality of the pitcher and how the team plays behind him.

    I have beginning of year 2008 MOB #'s, I have end of 2008 MOB #'s, and as 2009 comes available (i generally wait until May 1 before i use 2009 #'s) the data can be harvested ~ at least manually ~ from usatoday.com. I don't know if the data can be harvested electronically or not, and one of your first lessons was to automate where available to spend more time crunching.
    i have many extra cols in my master and could easily put in a mob one but to be close to getting the correct data i need a site where i can d/l the latest numbers every couple of days by pitcher like the one for era's attached. i just click on one button and within 1 min all of the latest pitcher stats for every pitcher that has pitched this year is update into the pdws. than when i pull the schedule for the next day all the era pop up. no fuck way i'm going to fat finger that shit for every pitcher, regardless of how good it sounds, as i can do well enough w/o it

    you find me the site and i'll see if it's mine able

    below is the example for pitchers era and whips

    http://www.statfox.com/mlb/pitcherre...sortby=pitcher
    Quick question--in the master, is the home category (column BE in the 2009 master, column AU in the 2008 master) tied to opening or closing line?

    Reason I ask is b/c it is interesting to look at a pivot table with the home category and the home line move category when looking at small home dogs (HD1) for the 2008 master, but I need a frame of reference-opening or closing line. Thx.

    almost every pivot i use or internal calc is off the OL

    another way you can tell which col or field i'm using is to click on the pivot table.. when you do a pivot table field list will pop on one the right. you can look at that and see which cols are checked on the top screen and also in the box on the bottom left as well (the one with the 4 boxes it show what is data in being brought into the table. you can just drag another one into the box or remove the ones you dont want etc. only takes a couple of seconds and data changes on the fly
    how do you the auto download thing. is that possible? How do you find where they get assigned beforehand.
    i do it automatically using VB macro. i posted a sample of one here yesterday and someone that posts here offered to help with them. a fast way is to just drag the data you want than do a paste into excel. it's not clean and you will need to do some clean up but it will work. that's what shale is doing with his stuff. much faster than fat finger but still not pretty
    it's was really tough last year. the league was moving him from one side of the map to the other. i do have people in some some city that check known hotels etc. close guarded secret. key is when his crew is scheduled for a bunny hop and he's at 1st base and catch him for the next series. Sport Options also gives me an extra hours notice vs the world knowing. just pops up on the screen for me in my notifications.

    here's what will happen today. OS adj OL down by 1 point from where it should have opened because the knew the scoop. since that point it's been bet down to 8 -130 or 7- and most joints with no action in vegas yet on o/u. and they will give limited action around 8am there time pst. at that point half of those that follow him will know as the web sites will post him as starting. line take another hit. about an hour b4 the game the entire ump betting people will finally get the answer there are looking from from the starting line up and it will take another hit. by that time a bunch of bettors that just got there welfare checks will see that the pitching era are well over 1 point higher than the o/u line and see VALUE!!!! (i hate people using that term in a fucken bet. there no value in an bet) from that point you will see a major shift in the action to the over side. if enough people still have money in there pocket you could see it pop to the more reasonable 8 to 8- range and than have a decent number to bet into. other factors make that game ripe for unders anyway
    I was thinking about the O/U vs. ERA differential on the sheet.

    The O/U is affected by whether the home team bats in the 9th inning or not.

    In a 9 inning game with a total of 9, each half inning is worth half a run.

    So if the game is a toss up, who the fuck knows whether the home team will bat or not ... but if the home team is a large favorite, can't we somehow play with that half run????

    A simple thing would be to take the probability of the home team winning (taken off the moneyline) and multiply it by 0.5. That way, if the home team has an 80% chance of winning, it takes off 0.4 runs from the ERA.

    I realize that technically it wouldn't be a real ERA because only 8 innings would be pitched, but who cares about "real ERA" when we're thinking of totals? That is the only ERA we would need on that night.
    Cincy if you are going to explore that you may be further ahead to use a combination of the runs that pitcher has given up along with the runs that the pig pen gives up. At least at then you don't rely only on a high era pitcher going 3 innings. With the spread sheet as supplied it is a very doable task. Did something similar last year but for sides.
    lol, your looking for fly shit in pepper. more of a whip type analysis vs era. that's trying to cut it was to close, but that half of run does help in many cases. if you have the 2008 master take a look in the o/u tab and see how many games ended in P for Push and you will see how many out of the thousands that would come into play, but would even be less than that number as the act calc your talking about would come into play only a small portion of those. but your on the right track with respect to keeping your mind open to look for simple areas to look at etc
    that is a good one ctp and i've put one of my special pivots into the master to get just that info, and by pitcher as well. it's just sitting there for anyone to use. all they have to do is find it. if you buy a starving man dinner he's full, but if you give him a gun he can rob the 7/11 any time he wants. than winds up in the slammer and has 3 squares every day.

    Pops i partially remember something about Texas day game unders,can you fill in my memory,cant find anything in my notes other than in texas when wind is blowing in it hits the large back drop nad actually has the opposite effect,flyballs actually carry out when wind is blowing in
    i'll need to check with my guy that sets the lines. cant remember off the top of my head. does the 2008 master support anything like that?

    if you recall one of my 1st post in this thread was to tell any fav bettors to wait until close to game time to get the best number if they are going to be the fav, esp large one. so far just like last year, almost every fav has been bet down on the ML from the open. i expect that to continue to AS break, but start to get smaller. the cherries will still be there by not as fat

    other things that cause this is so called super stars resting or injuries therefore cripple line up. i did have it projected to move down from the open but didnt expect a 20 point scalp. but in this business you take what you can get and eat as many as you find

    i'll say this one time and not again. i never never never never and mo never bet an E game over. if i dont like the number cause odds makers know here there i keep my money in my pocket

    your money do as you want

    Hey Pops, Just wanted to say thanks alot man for posting this sheet. It helps me out in my capping, saves me a bunch of time. I really appreciate it.

    I still takes me like an hour a day doing all the calculations for the games, If i had to find all that data and make a sheet myself it would probably take at least 3 times as long. how long does it take you to cap all the games everyday?
    i'll do the updates you guys just start using and capping. your not data collectors, but data users. i'm not either but all my macro (if they dont bomb on me) only take a couple of min to get everything done for the day before games)
    dont want thanks, or dancing icons (hate those fucken things) just use the data, question anything you dont understand or that does not look right, and let me know when you see any errors that my programs missed etc

    p.s. i dont cap every game. i use the pdws to look for an ant or elephant, than i do digging on the ones i find and either eliminate as i go along until i find gold, so max 10 min per game look at in detail. if i'm betting specific trents than just take them all in that range and done with it. i'm not going to try and find fly shit in pepper and try to eliminate a 80% game that will lose 20% of the time

    I've been using SportsOptions for the last week (free 7-day trial) and I am quite impressed

    the ump data fills right in as it's available very handy not sure why I haven't used something like this before.

    I honestly don't know what I'm going to do with all the free time I save not having to keep pressing refresh on some website I'll probably just post more on here
    Thanks, I will look into SportsOptions. Can you tell me who is behind the plate in FLA and STL.
    Appreciate It
    Sports Options has them the fastest, around 2hr b4 game. most net sources about 1hr. sometimes my eyes and ears in a few cities get scoop earlier which i trying to keep tabs on certain ones etc.. very close guarded secret
    i consider umps and weather to be other key factors. not the key factor (cubs games with wind blowing straight out to left is another story esp with LH pitchers going
    i'm not trying to be anyones mother, nor am i against getting anything 4 free. do it all the time myself. but if your having prob with paying 100 for a student copy of excel, you might want to consider keeping the cash you have in your pocket and stay off betting any sports. gl
    Hey pops what do you mean bye and e watch? Thnx great work bud
    bye=no more posts for that day for me. my next post would be my 1st post of the next day which is in bold letters. sometimes use Later which means the same thing. back to work=i'm losing money by bs here and getting back to my capping or scalping but still on the puter

    E, way to much said about that subject so you will need to find my other posts on that subject
    I've been trying to read through this forum over the past couple days. I'm sure I've missed a few critical posts; however, I have downloaded the MLB 2008 Master Final and from time to time downloaded the PDWS file for any given day. Is there anyway to overlay these two or to update the 2008 file to a 2009 file? It appears as if the 2008 file has games only from Aug-Sept. (“only” isn't insinuating there is a lack of info )

    I'm also trying to acclimate myself to utilizing this tool to help me project over/under totals mainly. Specifically, I was looking at Texas/Detroit U 10.5 today. Could somebody run me through an appropriate way to use this spreadsheet file to analyze this game? I'm sure this question has been asked before, but I haven't seen specifics.
    all the 2008 games are there in that master. i was thinking of adding that feature as well to put both into the same sheet. it will make the file 60 mb which is very very large uncompressed. sunday is get out of dodge day and if not burned out i'll give it a shot. having pivots right next to each other to look at trends would be easier but i just have both open at the same time. with respect to your 2nd question somone else asked me the same thing and i told them to ask me again sunday and i'd kind of go thru the basics. personally the master is best for o/u and ml
    The answer is NO to including the 2008 data into the 2009 spreadsheet:

    These are from my advisory board and i agree and not going to put the 2008 with the 2009. only a couple of things you should even be close to look for in last season trends and data, and i give you those for the 1st 30 days by using the 2008 era numbers. one of which would be weather, umps history (you have that link as well) couple more i use but know those trends by heart

    so ye all have spoken and that the way it will be: there comments to be below

    Here's my thought on the matter for 99% of the yahoo's readin the thread this will throw them for a bigger loop...

    for me i think i'm indifferent as I keep a copy of 08 handy and since i do everything thru the pivot tables I would just set all of my to year 09, so I don't confuse myself in looking at stuff. The majority of 08 data that I will look at in the future is going to be pitchers and how they fair against given teams in 08. The other things that I'll look at are scoring avg's by d/n and by month within the stadium.


    I don't see the advantage of it. I do a lot of sorting and if it screws that up I would be against it as well. Not positive on how this would look but if everything has the same extension b4 then sorting would only be by that extension. Also working with the master is already a bitch. Takes a while to download. Also when I have the master open it affects every other program I have because the processor speed goes way down. Biggest reason I made my own file last year as I got rid of all the pivots and if I needed that portion I just opened up your file took what I wanted and closed it again. With all that I can deal with it either way. If it makes your life easier go for it.

    quit watching the games and ticker. nothing you can do once you have left the bard. have not looked in any detail yet, but sure appears that this year in not close to last with respect to o/u. feels like more over, but need to look at the numbers

    still a ton of time left in clev, with det still there. but still playing like and under. but the pigs are coming soon
    Pops I appreciate the kind words but I'm old enough to know better and I know watching the board is like pissing in the wind but it's all I got left I recently gave all the other vices up so when I say don't mind me I mean it.

    Pops use to say look for situations like a sweep and thats what the Braves are going for today (at home) against the winless Nationals. Jurjens(1.37 whip last year) had a great outing against the Phils this past week. Braves got a warmup against a lefty last night and face another one in Scott Olsen today (he gave away 8 earned runs in his last outing). Keep and eye out for Dukes possibly being out today with a groin which hurts the nats if he is cause hes over .300 for the year. The bully still scares me (though they came through last night), but Im gonna roll with a strong pitcher in Jurjins and the hot bats the Braves have been swinging.
    points well taken, but ML is moving along with the normal pattern at this time of year

    i have my SportsOptions notifications running and should know well b4 most even think of that situation. If it does happen, it could be my trigger for going the other way.

    Pops took a look at that SportsOptions today. Not bad. Real good for injuries, umps and hell they even have humidity. Critical notice thing is great too...just had an injury pop up from the game.

    Why does MLB give a shit?
    if they dont, why dont they post the schedule in advance or move his crew all over the map vs closest city rotations like all the rest. only other would be hold over for 1st game of bos series but the way it's mapped out dont make sense to do that either

    Pops- what are the key numbers you would buy off of either up or down? 8 obviously not one of them
    NONE. I wouldn't even pay 10 cents to buy off the 9.
    yes, take those any time you find them. it's all about free money

    In baseball, there are no key numbers for totals.

    Pops, a couple of years ago, didn't you play a Polish middle with something like UNDER 9.5 + 120 and OVER 9 +115 or something like that and show the data to prove it was ok?
    i normally dont buy off any of those unless i get info that goes south. really tough to make a living on any of the o/u. no say you get a un 9 +110 that turn to a ov 8 plus 110 (you will see these now and than) i'll take them every time but those are real tough find

    we did have codes etc in cbb and nba a few years back cause OS were moving the fuck out of the numbers. everything is here, just a few names that i dont even like to talk about cause it will move the fuck out of the numbers so i dont like to see numbers move crazy like that as a bunch of people will wind up taking the tail pipe like they did a few days ago on a half point move

    it's all hear, your doing it right, you might need to go a little back to figure out a couple of them. but no smoke and mirrors and i'm using the same data that i post for everyone as well

    wow pops your right on about e, this guy calls strikes like crazy, couple close calls bye the first base ump helping the under also
    The one thing about E is that his reputation helps him too. When you go to the plate, you're up looking to swing at the 1st or 2nd pitch. It's tough to do jackshit if you take a couple of pitches and run the count to 0-2.
    I mean E is so good that he can be rumored to be behind HP for a game and make that game go under.

    I have a huge amount riding on Seattle/Anaheim under 9 (took it last night when he wasn't in Oakland) ... thinking E would be there ... and E is making that game go under too.

    At this rate, how long before the legend of E makes sure that NBA games go under too? Yes, he's that good

    Could someone post the plays day to day so we can get an accurate record. I don 't quite get it.
    there are no plays we share information and data and examine it ourselves and make our own plays

    it's the old "give a man a fish and he will eat for one day teach a man to fish and he will eat for a lifetime"

    this is a thread to develop your own skills not to leech off of someone else
    Hang in there GT.

    When I first read Pops' thread 2 years ago, I didn't know jackshit. Pops kept calling me a 'hanger queen'. He finally got me to 'fuck the dog' for a week.

    In this thread there is Pops and the rest. A couple of people (like CTP and Shale) are people you need to pay attention to. You need to save time by skipping over posts from dumbfucks like me. I am a one-trick pony that probably makes 2-3 plays a week.

    CTP said there was a home dog angle, right? I have no idea what he is referring to but I won't ask. I will try to figure it out and THEN ask if I am right. Why don't do the same? What the fuck does CTP mean by home dog? Is it for the AL or NL?
    Cliff notes version is to look at starters era + whip. Also look at Umps over and under tendencies. For instance people on this thread only type letters like e or h or whatever other secret codes they use. e = Doug Eddings and h = John Hirschbeck. Also, look at the percentage of line movement from open to close. They are now looking at humidity, direction of wind, and temperture for each game. Also, the tendencies of certain teams or pitchers during day and night games or dome or open fields. I'm pretty sure I missed couple of other factors.

    And don't except any picks posted here by anyone since those who are crunching the numbers everyday don't want to post them, and the others like most of us don't have a clue.

    Most of their bets will be over and unders with the indicators but ml bets will be made when lines move certain way or percentage. For instance this year, if you faded .5 or more movement on overs or unders from the opener from LVSC to close from Las Vegas Hilton, you would have hit 65%.
    couldnt have said it any better myself. about the only thing you forgot is that they need basic reading and math skills and how to open excel spreadsheet. nice job. you get the gold star on your forhead for the post of the day
    With the Umpire site, is there anywhere to go to find out what the next game each ump is umpiring? Or does statfox not offer that information?
    Gumbi if it is the last game of a series no. Otherwise they move clockwise home to third, third to second, second to first and first to home. Now you guys all want to learn something or just get it for no effort at all. This has been posted in this thread at least 3 times and now four. I gave one small assignment and as far as I know one guy did it maybe two. He showed me his results. Now all the people think maybe he knew what he was talking about so now I can go look it up for all those that want a free hand out. It is here honest. Do a search by thread and ctp and there you have it. What I said is take home dogs with an indicator of HD1, HD2 and HD3 and you have. I did not separate by national or american. If there was a dif honest I would have posted it. Also if the lines were higher than that and was worth while I would have posted that as well. If you would have done the little assignment I posted you to could have this answer for yourself in about 5 minutes and honestly that is all it would have taken.

    I don't mind helping but every time I do about 3 weeks later someone gets a brain fart and says "Damn what was that he said", so then I can look it all back up for them. Real turn off for me as I don't have to do anything.

    I said over and over and over I am willing to help anyone but not do the work for them. End of my speach.

    remember 99% of o/u bettors dont have a clue regarding other factors so OL will normally follow the pitcher ERA. when you see LM that goes against the norm it should give you a clue that something is up. it's been almost 20 years ago that i started looking at them and there effect on the game, and everyone i ever mention it to always laugh at me. i could care less. pay attention to external factors
    once you have the 1st game of the series you know the ump at HP for the next game (counter clockwise) MLB does there best to keep the info out of the hand of any group etc. SportsOptions get's the info as faster than anyone i know so that the only real advantage you have over everyone else finding it 1st and moving the nut. i'm not even going to try and guess where the key crews will move to. if you can do it your a much better man than i'm
    finally the last one from yesterday. only thing i want to point out is that all the information is there for anyone that wants to use it. i'm not going to point out obvious things because i dont what any OS to have a clue what i'm doing. if they do they will pick up on it fast and adjust as needed. believe it or not, it happens. they started adj for E and H a few years back, and did it in CBB and NBA on my 2nd half shit. so it there, you just need to have some basic reading and math skills. i'll buy you the gun to rob the 7/11, but you will need to find the one that's open for business

    WOW... Is all I can say... Came across this thread tonite and been reading for a few hours now, great work. The master sheet is a work of art.

    Probably won't sleep for a few days now while I play with this. Hopefully I can contribute in the future
    rest grass hopper. many man years of work involved it putting all of that together. sometimes you will look and look and see nothing, than come back all fresh another day and the light goes on. i have not put together a new text file as to what the cols are in the new format but they are the same as the one from the old format just in diff order. you dont need to be in the al and nl combined anyway. all the key variables are in the pivot tables anyway

    for those that have d/l the spreadsheets, to me the most important is the pdws as it starts the entire process in motion the master is only the vehicle i use to look at history and find trends and patters as well and determining LM

    in the master you should see a bunch of green tabs with a yellow and red ones, and sometimes orange

    red: these are my cat ranges. no reason you should even be in that one unless you want to change a range i've set and rerun the macro for what you like better

    orange: those are pivots that have not gone green yet, data is fine, just means that i'm still thinking on what else to add to that area (only one orange now is ctp 1st inning shit, and he's still sitting with his finger up his ass trying to figure it out and let me know what else he wants there)

    green: these are all ready to use and all data is refreshed and ready to go and grouped in the below areas:

    Temp and Humidity
    CAT Pivots
    Victory Margin
    Pitcher Pivots
    Ov & Un + Umps
    Home W & L
    Line Moves
    1st Inning
    Scalp & Misc
    CAT Summary
    OU Summary

    so depending on what and how you bet, just look in the ones that apply to your situation.

    no magic, all basic shit. throw enough against the wall, some will stick
    i got this from a very wise man a long while back. opinions are like ass holes, everyone has one. just look at most of the threads on this or any web site or listen to talking heads. once you have opinion on a game or bet or get look at or hear an opinion from anyone, it will influence your objective thinking

    i never never never have an opinion on any game i bet. everything i do is based on the data and the numbers and not words or opinions
    Actually, your quite right. Often i have neglected my own thinking and swayed to an opinion on the forum and lost. Must learn to go with my own material.

    Ok .. now a little speech for the hanger queens:

    If you can't understand what CTP said the last couple of days (especially yesterday), keep looking.

    If you don't want to spend the time to figure out what he meant, you deserve to lose money.

    If you just want a pick for today, take the Gnats.

    no macro's in pdws only in the master and they are all internal one and even if you do try to run them nothing should happend as all have been updated and run by me prior to uploading. also you need to make sure that you have your micro options enabled when you open the spreadsheet. default is disabled. but not sure dos vs mac if any diff but shouldnt

    This is one of the best threads if not the best in the baseball forum. These spreadsheets puts together all the information a handicapper needs to decide which plays he needs to be on.

    You have to do your own work but it is solid information and its all in one spot. Once you learn how to use it, you are set.

    You just have to invest your own time.
    Bullets, one reason I stopped posting everyday is because of guys like sparticus who only want something for nothing.
    They could go 20-0 following someone and the minute that person goes on a cold streak, they are the first to bitch and moan.

    Following pops a year ago helped me to understand that the only way to get ahead is to do your home work day in and day out
    lol, i dont know why some of you get so pissed off when someone asks for picks. everyone want free shit, be it good or bad.

    prob is that no one wants to do any work or earn it. i put in at least 16 hrs per day during baseball season. i dont care or cry about it. you do what you have to do

    it's not like i posted one of those look attention whore threads that i'm 50-0 and have a by GOY going today. nothing in the header says anything about any picks. it says capping and straight scoop

    relax, smell the roses and enjoy the ride, as life is so short
    nothing more and nothing less. it's all bout taking a logical approach to this or any sport. and most important keeping an open mine, being objective and not having an opinion or letting anyone else's opinion influence your decision making

    one thing i like to look at is the pitching stats for the starting pitchers in an HE game box scores. i look for pitchers that did wtf better than there normal Strike out vs walks etc

    Van Benschoten for florida last year is a good example. believe it might have been one of his 1st outings in the majors with E behind the dish. he was all over the place but striked out a ton of batters etc vs what he should have done w/o E. so next few time out i made sure i was on the over with him pitching. he closed the year at 12.22 era

    i can specifically get at the data you asked for w/o a little work as it's kind of an offset etc game after thing so dont have any real hard data that will give you that info
    Ok ... your previous reply talking about VAN BENSCHOTEN example was talking about the "morning after pill" for the pitchers.

    I think this reply is referring to the "morning after pill" for the hitters.

    Now if this trend continues, the books can't artificially inflate totals the next day to account for the loss of e and h (unless they want to gamble) because they would get one-sided action. Heck, if the action on the totals are one-sided enough to drive down the total as it is, it would get worse if the lines were inflated.
    I think it was in 2007. April 10, 2007 Van denhurk started for FLA against milwaukee, E was ump. game was 2-2 after 10 inn before being suspended, MIL eventually won 3-2. Van den hurks next start was april 19, 2007 vs mets and he was shelled. however, van denhurk actually pitched in relief before that next start, on april 10 vs atl, giving up 2 runs in 3 inn. Later that season he took a no-hitter thru six against atl.
    yep, that was the one. i recall winnning my under that night based on the os susp rules. i cant find my 2007 data base, found the 2008 and 2006 but not that one. i knew i wasnt that brain dead already

    This isn't a scenario of beating books, it's a scenario where the public doesn't allow the books to account for something even if they know it.

    umps don't show in my pds. is that correct? what is old business?
    my pdws does a original check of umps from statfox, than pulls the HP ump from mlb.com than checks if any difference between the two. if so i check two diff sources. but that said. eyes and ears from others are the best way to go as a final check. old business just means that i go back and look at all the posts after i quit for the day and answer any of them that were questions.
    i pull the pdws info as soon as the OL are available. and the HP projected umps for the day from statfox which does not do the next days report until 7am or so on game day so it's never in the pdws i post the night before.

    other than 1st game of a schedule you can find the next day HP ump from usa today once the linups are posted and look who the 1st base ump is.

    HE will be at HP on saturday, and OL will already be adjusted down by a half point or more to reflect these external conditions

    your post was old business. any questions that i dont answer the day before i reply to the next business day

    which version of the master did you get to work the one for mac man or 2008

    a few minor moves and plus a bunch of fishing on MB so just a few things to keep in the back of you minds when you doing any capping and objective thinking.

    1. computers can come close to picking w/l or o/u in mlb at this time.. they can identify trends or patterns like my spreadsheets do but other than that wont even come close.

    2. what goes up must and will come down. and very low low's will go up. so if you see current era at 0.00 they are going up as well at 19.00 will come down

    3. always take external factors into consideration b4 jumping on any bandwagon. if they dont line up. stay off the train

    pops could you explain the scalp & misc tab a bit, i understand what it is but what are the ranges HF1, HF2, etc....trying to understand this more, stuck with excel 03 so i can't run the pivots now but trying to understand the data more. I am contemplating trying to get more into scalping with MB & Pin, hoping this data can help

    for example, when I open this tab, the 2nd chart from the left shows league A and a chart with WL and HF3 L10 W6, does this mean the line moves were wrong 10 times and right 6?
    it's more for me than anything else as i'm using it to project line move for any early buy in or one sided scalps (all dog or fav) doubt that anyone would have enough OS lines of credit to even try it. plus you need to be at a puter 100% of the time if you are trying to do any. one early notice of any major lineup change etc your up shit's creek w/o a boat. a 100 scalp 5 cent scalp would only net you .25 profit on an even split

    dont waste you time and energy in that area of the spreadsheet. many more cherries to pick in the other areas

    Pops and all just remember the way the master is setup at the moment if the OL is 8 and it goes to 9, it shows up as a -1 line move. A bit backwards from the way i view it, but want to make sure everyone is looking at the data the right way

    Pops, I have a quick question for you as far as data tracking. With all the detailed information that is on the pdws, do you think that it could be benefical to perhaps add to the starting pitchers the number of pitches throw for that particular game. It seems as though that a few pitchers are already throwing well over 100 pitches to start the season early. Just a thought.
    this is true, numbers look ass backward from normal thinking but need it that way to make some of the calc come out correctly. handling neg numbers does cause some prob from time to time. thanks for point it out to everyone

    Interesting article about the changes in manufacturing baseball bats, not sure if it has anything to do with the runs scored being up.

    LAS VEGAS -- Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association jointly announced today that they have adopted the nine recommendations made by the Safety and Health Advisory Committee, which investigated the sport's broken bat incidents. The recommendations will be in effect for the 2009 season.

    In July, the Safety and Health Advisory Committee formed an interdisciplinary team of external experts in such areas as wood science, industrial wood product certification, statistical analysis and laboratory and field testing of baseball bats. The experts were asked to develop a series of recommendations that would reduce the frequency of multiple-piece broken bats.

    Among the steps taken by the experts were on-site visits to five bat manufacturers, during which they met with company officials and observed their manufacturing quality control processes; video review of hundreds of multi-piece bat failures; administration of a survey to all MLB-approved bat suppliers, players and equipment managers; and lab testing both of bats and maple dowels.

    From July-September 2008, 2,232 bats broke during Major League games - including both cracked bats that stayed in one piece and bats that broke into multiple pieces - and were subsequently collected and submitted to the experts for analysis. Among the 2,232 broken bats, 756 broke into multiple pieces. The two primary modes for the multi-piece breaks were due to poor-quality "slope of grain" and/or ruptures caused by excessive bending. Slope of grain is a term used in the wood industry to quantify how straight the grain is along the edge (radial) and flat (tangential) faces of a piece of wood. As the straightness of the grain decreases, the durability of the bat decreases.

    The study by the Safety and Health Advisory Committee concluded that among the 756 multi-piece broken bats, maple bats were three times more likely than ash bats to break into two or more pieces. The failed bats showed that the maple bats were four times more likely to have broken due to poor-quality slope of grain than the ash bats failing in the same manner.

    To address the slope of grain issue, the team of experts compiled nine recommendations to reduce the frequency of multi-piece bat failures, all of which have been adopted for 2009:

    1. All bats must conform to slope of grain wood grading requirements which apply to the 2/3 length of the billet that will constitute the handle and taper regions of the bat. All manufacturers must identify and grade the handle end prior to production of the bat to ensure that its slope of grain satisfies the grading requirement.

    2. All manufacturers must place an ink dot on the tangential face of the handle of sugar maple and yellow birch bats before finishing. Placing an ink dot enables a person to easily view the slope of grain of the wood.

    3. The orientation of the hitting surface on sugar maple and maple bats should be rotated 90o (one quarter turn of the bat). The edge grain in maple that is currently used as the hitting surface is the weaker of the two choices. To facilitate such a change in the hitting surface, manufacturers must rotate the logos they place on these bats by 90o.

    4. Handles of sugar maple and yellow birch bats must be natural or clear finish to allow for inspection of the slope of grain in the handles.

    5. Manufacturers must implement a method of tracking each bat they supply (e.g., serial number) so that each can be linked back to the manufacturer's production records.

    6. Representatives of each authorized manufacturer should be required to participate in an MLB-sponsored workshop on the engineering properties and grading practices of wood as they relate to the manufacture of solid-wood baseball bats.

    7. Manufacturers should be visited on a regular basis by MLB or its designated representatives to audit each company's manufacturing processes and recordkeeping with respect to bat traceability.

    8. Audits should be randomly conducted of bats by MLB or its designated representatives at the ball parks to ensure that the new bat requirements are being followed.

    9. A formalized third-party bat certification and quality control program should be established to certify new suppliers, approve new species of wood, provide training and education to bat manufactures, and address issues of non-compliance.

    The team of experts believes that implementation of these recommendations will have an immediate impact in the 2009 season on reducing the frequency of bats breaking and the number of bats breaking into multiple pieces.

    Doc, you can find the stats for groups of reliever for all MLB teams here

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/...hing&type=exp2

    You can then sort by WHIPs or whatever stats that pique your interest.
    Here's a column that explains the "wind tunnel" that has been created at the new Yankee Stadium. Over, over over....

    By JIM LITKE
    AP Sports Columnist
    You don’t need an industrial engineering degree like the one Joe Girardi got from Northwestern to know something funny is going on at the Yankees’ swanky new stadium. But if your livelihood depends on winning games there, as his does, it certainly can’t hurt.
    No sooner did the $1.5-billion baseball emporium open its doors last week than baseballs began flying out at a record pace. There were 20 by the time the four-game series against the visiting Indians ended Sunday with a split, the most ever during an opening homestand at a new park.
    “It seems to be playing somewhat short. You don’t see this many home runs usually,” the Yankees manager said a day earlier, after watching his team lose the long-ball battle 6-2 and the game 22-4. “It’s too early to tell, but the early indications are the balls are carrying to right field.”
    No kidding.
    Fourteen of the 20 homers during the series left the yard in that direction, including the decisive blow Sunday by pinch-hitter Jorge Posada. The umps confirmed the two-run shot after looking at a video replay, because a fan in the first row appeared to interfere with Cleveland outfielder Trevor Crowe’s leaping stab at the ball. Even stranger might have been Girardi musing afterward that if the wind was gusting as strongly as the previous few days, a replay would have been unnecessary.
    “The ball would have landed another six, maybe eight rows up,” he said.
    It shouldn’t come as a shock that the wind would blow hard through any house that George Steinbrenner and family built. Exactly how hard, though, appears to have caught just about everybody by surprise.
    Former Yankees star and current Cubs manager Lou Piniella brought his team to New York at the beginning of the month for two exhibition games and left grumbling about a “wind tunnel” after the home team hit seven homers and easily won both. Turns out he might have been on to something.
    Architects sited the new stadium so some well-heeled fans could take the ferry across the Harlem River to get to the game. They also left the concourses open so that fans on their way to and from the pricey concession stands could follow the action. Unlike the old park, when a stiff breeze comes off the river on the third base side and blows out toward right, it meets little resistance.
    Just before Sunday’s game, Cleveland manager Eric Wedge finished his own unscientific experiment confirming the same thing. Sitting in the visitor’s dugout along the third base side, he stuck up an arm and pointed behind him.
    “I think there’s something happening behind here,” he concluded.
    It’s too early to say for sure. For one thing, New York’s lineup packed plenty of power even before adding Mark Texeira’s potent bat, and three of the Yankee blasts against the Cubs came off left-hander Ted Lilly, who gives up more home runs per nine innings pitched, on average, than any active starter.
    For another, the Indians aren’t strangers to scoring in bunches, either. And Cleveland’s 14-run explosion in the second inning Saturday began against struggling starter Chien-Ming Wang and continued against just-called-up reliever Anthony Claggett, who was promptly optioned to Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre the next day.
    Besides, it was a cool, windy couple of days in the Big Apple.
    But either way, this much is certain: What would have made an interesting case study back when Girardi was finishing up his bachelor of science degree in 1986 could wind up costing him his job.
    While the Yankees may be able to hold their own in a Home Run Derby most days, the organization’s blueprint has always stressed pitching. That’s why general manager Brian Cashman paid top dollar to lock up CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett for a combined dozen years, and bring Andy Pettitte back for one.
    If those guys struggle to keep the ball in the park, imagine how it’s going to affect youngsters like Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, whom the Yankees are counting on to keep the staff strong for years to come. Plus, teams that play in stadiums that have become launching pads for homers — think Rockies, Rangers, Reds, Phillies or Astros — have had a tough time convincing free-agent pitchers to relocate there.
    Pity the poor Yankees. Patience is always at a premium and it’s not like they haven’t spent plenty on the new ballpark already. A year ago, after receiving an anonymous tip that a construction worker from the Bronx — who happened to be a Red Sox fan — had buried a David Ortiz jersey in concrete near the clubhouse, the club spared no expense to get it out. Workers wound up jackhammering through two feet of the stuff to get it out.
    But the time and effort that required could pale alongside getting rid of this latest curse. It’s not just engineers who know how hard it is to try and catch the wind.
    good reading but only time will tell. if this is what the bettors believe could result in much more unders as over, as the line makers will have already taken this into account (like they do on cubs and ROC etc) and it will get bet much higher like yesterday to 10-
    Wind Tunnel???? WTF does an AP reporter know about wind tunnels???


    I can understand how one can get a wind tunnel at Giants Stadium because they actually have a tunnel and a constriction. Same might hold true for the panels in Zona, though I haven't really seen how they work.

    In a layout like Yankee Stadium, you can create turbulent flow (and suction) inside it when wind blows over it but you this type of flow is turbulent. In other words, it is ERRATIC. It depends on too many things that are not constant.

    It doesn't blow "towards right field" all the damn time. If we tweaked the temperature by x degrees, and changed the orientation of the wind by y degrees, everything would change.

    Here is a site that gives the status of the roof. If the roof is open, the panels are open. If the roof is closed the panels are closed. I called in to the office to verify this.

    http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/.../roof_info.jsp
    tks. did they say for a fact that the panels are never opened with the roof is closed
    That's what I was told. Interesting that the roof is open tonight, but the panels are closed. Might be the 103 degree temps.

    I am going to the game on Saturday. I will ask around while I am there and report back. The roof should be open with 85 for the forecast.
    quick reminder. i know i said this around the start of the year but figured it would be a good idea to say it again.

    it's not that i'm telling you to dont bet the OL fav, but if you like a fav dont bet it when the OL come out. most are still being bet down from the open, so you'll get a way better number the next morning

    Umps o/u. i dont play them blindly, Max bets at the OL like i do with H and E, but i do use them for other factors. eg. if i like an under and it's a way over ump i wont bet the game under and same for the over with a solid under ump. that goes for weather factors as well. plus i've never seen them work the plate as well. but in general i would not give over a half point to any of them either way
    i'm always looking for a scalp or middle on any bet i make in advance. it all depends on who's pitching, plus other factors determine how much, if any that i hold onto and what the numbers do. if i catch the numbers right i can always buy points up or down to have a pure scalp is the 1st option i look for, than two free numbers if possible for the middle eg like the 10 and 11 on tor and held nothing because of the pitchers and indoors game as well

    what are streaks:
    data is pulled directly from the link below. and remember when i upload a pdws for the next day's games it's one day old. i do a update of this info the next morning to the pdws and apply trans to master in the morning updates

    also no pivots for this info as it's reference only for streak bettors

    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

    f you know how to create a pivot table, you can just add one to pick up that specific info, or just modify one of those in the CAT Pivots tab of of the master. and i just added one there to show that for the nl and al seperately as well. the summary is below:

    National

    hd to fav are 2-3

    american

    2-2

    so a coin flipper either way for the final results, but never a good idea to be betting it after the move up
    very good weather (temp in the 70 range and 50 humidity) helps the pitcher more vs when it's hot and humid as he can go as many innings. esp good starting pitchers if they are not hung over from the night b4 and spend the night in the drunk tank in the local jail

    Pops: You are entitled to have a "little" time off, especially on the Sabbath.

    It's easy for us Forum members to say " we appreciate all your efforts"; some people really mean it.
    i get as much if not more out of what i'm doing so it's something for everyone. just tough for this old fucken body and mind to stay fresh with all the hours and time difference taking it's toll. but getting in the pattern, and need a short day from time to time to charge the batteries

    Did somebody already find information about todays homeplate umpires?
    Sports Options is your best shot at picking them up early. usatoday.com or mlb.com will have the 1st game of the schedule HP umps about an hour b4 the start of the game, but sometimes errors there so be careful

    I can't figure out the abbreviation...what is NL? Thanks!
    that's a tough one. National League

    al= american league

    fyi - when i d/l the daily schedule to the pdws it's automatic, than i need to do a manual to correct the name spelling errors with filter arrows in the pdws which comes from linking i have to the pitchers i've setup in the pdws to keep them consistent etc. i normally find these when i get red letters showing next to starting pitchers which tell's me than they didnt have any home or away starts the previous year or this year. than i need to check the spelling of that linking pitcher list as well as the era names than get update from statfox directly to my data base and i do miss some from time to time. mostly on starting pitchers

    so bottom line is if you feel a pitcher name is not spelled correctly on the pdws i upload. let me know so that i can check it out and make sure i catch as many as possible. i'm doing a manual for all of them this morning.

    those fucken hunches have cost me a ton juice chasing waldo (E) all over the country

    hell we'll get it early enough to but max limits everywhere w/o any problem just as it is
    Sports Options released H at home plate for tonights milk game at 2:34pm pst. at that time line was 9 under +110. official mlb.com release was at 3:42
    line had alread moved to 9 un -115

    The thing everyone has to remember is this 30 day stuff like col DH which is home pit + pen is backwards meaning the home is what it gives up so if the home is higher than the visitor it means the visitor will win or should.
    good point. it's like my LM numbers plus means minus. sometimes you need to do things a little differently for calc or form to work properly. just have to do whatever it takes

    if anyone happens to open up the spreadsheets u will see the o/u are starting to fall back into the previous two years distribution pattern. a couple of numbers stick out over the rest on individual lines but both leagues are in the same boat at the high end of the range with way more over with ol at 10- or more 20o-7u

    I am looking at them now for the first time trying to figure them out.
    just stay out of the al & nl combined tab as that's only data (yellow tab) and the CAT Ranges (Red other than to figure out what i've setup for the various cat buckets)

    all the answers are in the other tabs with the pivot tables. you just ask the questions at the top by using the drop down filter arrows and get your answer at the bottom. kind of like playing 8 ball without the random results
    I am trying to find one strategy and stick with it. So I plan on learning and using this. Been a long start to the season im up 6 units, but it was like hell getting to that.
    just remember that many of those patterns you see in april will start to change as the year goes on. season is 4 different buckets. start, IL play, after AS break and final run for the roses. key to to try and catch them as early as possible
    both, plus you have info for 1st inning bull shit and run line as well. but o/u strongest followed by ML. much of my analysis is for projecting moves which does not apply to most bettors other than to know when to time your bets. early on opening ml fav are being bet down from the open and should stay that way up to as break (other than complete pitcher and team miss matches etc
    What do you typically look at on the pdws to make your decisions on the ML bets?
    two things i dont do are say who and what i bet, and dont give any details in my decision making process. most of this shit has been d/l by the books number crunchers etc. seek and you will find

    The Coors Field humidor has done as good of job reducing runs at the Rockies’ home park as any steroids test.
    In the Rockies’ first seven seasons (1995-2001), Coors Field averaged a league-high 13.8 runs and 3.2 home runs per game.
    Oddsmakers couldn’t set totals high enough. Betting over/under 15 was not uncommon for games at Coors Field. 15!
    That changed in 2002, when a Rockies team engineer theorized that Denver’s thin air, which unquestionably allowed home runs to fly farther, also was impacting the baseballs.
    The cool, dry Colorado climate made baseballs feel harder and have less grip. The thin air also produced limited resistance to prevent breaking pitches from maximizing their movement.
    “Being a pitcher, and holding on to a frozen cue ball as opposed to a legitimate horsehide-leather baseball, is a big difference. A big difference," former Rockies reliever Matt Herges told the Seattle Times in 2007.
    Since 2002, the Rockies have been storing game balls inside a humidor, which is located inside Coors Field.
    The temperature reportedly stays at 70 degrees with the humidity kept at 50 percent. That’s basically the climate Rawlings, the baseball manufacturer, suggests.
    Some say keeping the balls in the humidor takes away some of their carry. Others say it simply helps the pitcher get a better grip on the ball and make his breaking pitches break more sharply. Either way, runs are way down at Coors Field.
    Last year, Coors Field averaged just over 10 runs per game, an all-time low.
    The oddsmakers have dropped the totals accordingly as well.
    In 2004, the average total for a game at Coors Field was 12.53.
    Last season, the average total was 9.79, and yet, the under hit in five more games
    i was told by a couple of people that played and pitched there that when they 1st started doing that, there were some days that the ball would sweeze in you hand. bet that person that was doing it is living in fat city now

    I am not making another bet without looking at this. Keep up the good work POPs
    everything i have in my spreadsheets is available on the net somewhere. it's only the way i package it and make it easy to use and all in one place so that anyone can ask simple questions to the pivot tables and get answers right on the spot. it's all designed to so you could get the info even if you can get access to the net etc

    i told this to ctp a long time ago how i feel about the 1st inn as well as the 1st 5 inn plays.

    there is nothing what so ever that i've found that makes these type plays any good. no patters etc. both way more random than anything else i look at on game ML or o/u

    do as you please, it's your money. i just tell it like it is
    I can guarantee one thing- Pops has no problem telling it as he sees it. I tried to warn him about the score in the first. As I said figured he just misread the data. I would have bet the other way if not sure and lost the juice.

    No clue how that will fair need to wait until June for first inning stuff and at least give me a chance to look at it. Would not have even looked at it now had it not been mentioned in here.

    I am generally around early in the morning so if you want another asshole I mean opinion just ask and I will check some data for you. Don't want it to be a full time job.

    About one more day and should have my spread sheet opporational. Will have all of last year and this year together in one sheet. Don't know what I will do with it. Was hoping to use 30 day averages from todays date back into last year to cover 30 days. It took me so long to do it almost to 30 days now.
    i know you believe in this 1st inn shit based on 1 year of someone doing decent. again i dont see anything good from 1st inning or 5 inn bets vs game bets which have a much bettor track record

    with that being said, i'll keep and open min
    on the pdws i've left the cell's blank for 2009 if the pitcher does not have an era for home or away rather than putting in a std 4.50. this way you can put in what ever number you want to see est game era. it's an excel file so do with it as you want

    Hey pops, I have been reading over your thread and I have to say I am very interested in getting started on the program. I am going to be starting from scratch and I was was wondering how do I go about getting all the start up material. Ive noticed that uploads only stay on the site for a certain amount of time and as it stands me coming in this late i am way behind and am unable to download all the previous information. So is there anyway to get the information?
    of a freight train that is is already moving (fast). As for me, I'm too old to [jump on] even when the train is standing still; I try to glean a few "crums" that are left in the rail-bed.

    Pops (69) has been around this "stuff" for a long time; you appear to be young with above average intelligence (you should be able to make the "leap" even when the train is already moving). Just remember to "tip-toe" in his thread.

    This is not advice, just an observation
    once old dog's stop learning new tricks or forget the past we might as well die

    Anyone interested in starting to use this data. There is no better time than the present. You have a month of data which is about 290 games. You missed all the bs of trying to find a needle in a haystack as some of the needle is now exposed.

    I am having a hard time figuring out the marlins/cubs game today. the starter for the marlins is making his 2nd big league start. So does he get rocked or do the cubs continue to suck the big one?
    you never know what you will get from these guys. but would lean toward more of the same (assuming same conditions etc) until they prove otherwise

    Pops-got time for scalping 101?
    use this like as a general primer to your question and we can go from there

    http://www.majorwager.com/guide/spor...strategies.htm

    In Toronto tomorrow, Baltimore after losing by 3 or more has scored this year
    5
    10
    8
    10
    6
    with Bradley this season they have scored
    8 and 10 runs while in 9.2 innings he has given up 6 runs and now gets to play on the road. Not perfect because in day games Baltimore only averages 3 and 6/7ths runs a game while toronto averages 5 and 3 5ths. Seems though with these question mark starters an over bet is in order.
    i personally dont like those type of projections related to winning or losing by x or more runs etc. the rest of the analysis is fine related to the pitcher are facts but the 1st part has nothing to do with reality, it just happened that way for a few times

    Hey Pops hows it going. I noticed that you posted that there are like 3 or so plays today like the plays last saturday that went 6-0. Im not looking for a hand out but what should I be looking for in your spread sheet, is there a certain difference in the ERAs that make a bet the right one. Im still trying to get on the right track here. What is the difference between the top set of numbers and the bottom set. Am I right in assumeing that the top #'s is the 2008 information and the bottom is 2009?
    i posted the info on them last sat and they are the same as those where. plus the info is in the master as well. yes, top set are 2008 era and whip actual and bottom is this year to date. any with 4.50 and 1.25 whip are my standard filler for those w/o this year numbers home and away

    Man i went 3-11 in baseball today. This has been a huge hit to my bank roll and not to mention my ego. There are some severe deficiencies in my picks i need some real help sorting through this. I feel like crying but ill wait to do that until after i get done punching myself in the face.

    i didnt spend much time with the application application so really can judge it power vs what i'm getting from the pivots (they do crank up the file size etc. but kind of easy to just click with the mouse etc and having both in one spot makes it easy for me to change bracket numbers and do a refresh all. as i said earlier, it might be easier for anyone use it in conjunction with my data base to identify areas that should be adjusted
    Ok maybe we can start here. These were my bad plays for the day. Please tell me where i went wrong.

    Over 7.5 in Milwaukee
    Under 9 in Minnesota
    Over 10.5 in Toronto
    Under 10.5 in Philly
    Florida ML
    Baltimore ML
    Under 11.5 in Texas

    and a few parleys with one or more of these losers being a part it


    WTF...should i just quite trying to pick. Man please help me sort through this mess
    I think you went wrong betting on 14 games.

    Way too many and that practice will always catch up with you in the end.
    lol, i sit at this fucken puter for 12-14 hours per day, and the 1st 5 hours or so is quiet time where i do all of the updates and upload them to the thread. than i look over any unanswered questions from the previous day and answer all of them. from that point on i'm available to answer any questions regarding using any of the spreadsheets and data. i would say than in the last 30 day or 150 hours that i doubt that i've had more than 5. not counting the ones that ask who i bet or my optinion on a game. which you all know what my answeres will be on those
    not counting scalps, on a very busy full schedule day 3-4 would be max. most days 1 maybe 2, unless is program or range betting. only thing i see from 14 is a problem waiting to happen

    Pops.first of all, thanks to you and CTP for your time and effort in sharing all this with the forum.
    Secondly, been following you and this thread (have learned a lot) since I joined in March, but was having a lot of puter problems. Finally got a good one and was finally able to download Excel 2007.
    GREAT STUFF on the 2009 master, used to take me hours a day to one finger all my data. I would like to D/L the 2008 master now that I can, but can not find it anymore; wondering if you could please help me out.
    Finally, in the 2009 master, in the pitcher's column, there's Verlander, J and a Verlander, V. I believe it should all be Verlander, J.
    Also Jakubauskas is spelled once as Jakubaus. Both noticed are in the Home pitcher column. Verlander, V is 4/11 and Jakubaus is 4/22.
    Once again thanks!!!

    fyi - i'll be adding a few pivots that are setup so that you can do a specific months or months w/o changing the al and nl i have in all of the others. right now in the cat and o/u tabs. just makes it easier to have it all on one page vs changing the filters each time you want a diff answer. saves 10 seconds each time, not a big savings but when you think your looking a x and you really have y there it can make a big difference
    if anyone would like to see specific type pivot table added to the master let me know and i'll add them today (even in our own special tab) the only one's i know of that are missing are the 30 day ones and oil is working on those

    Look at that. Post a couple simple things and a bunch of no shows. 2 and 0 can't say it will keep up but man if you don't look at this stay home. Can't get the results from this for last year as dates are wrong as I use an auto date thing. Either listen or get out of the way. Enough said on to a new topic.

    Oh by the way my last thought was +10.1 units for April.
    Sorry CTP I didnt mean to miss the first day of class as I was tied up getting ready for some final exams in other classes. I am eager to learn but at this point this is like a second language to me. I mean I see the numbers in the chart and I can gauge that one pitcher has better numbers than the other...but there are certain aspects to the chart that I just dont get...like the HM3 and HF2, stuff like that. Im really start hacking away at analyzying
    cat's are explained in the text file i posted. for either plus P (good) minus M (bad) to pitching matchups or lumping items into larger buckets so that you have less data points. eg below are the diff between the era of the starting pitchers

    .01
    .02
    .03
    .04
    .05
    .05
    .07
    .08
    .09
    .10
    .11
    .12
    .13
    -.01
    -.02
    -.03
    and on and on so that you could have 100 different lines of data that your looking at vs one bucket for a specific set of ranges that are spelled out in the CAT Ranges tab. if you dont like my ranges just change the numbers in those B,C and D cols and re run the macro and you have your only ranges just like you want. take maybe 15 seconds max

    Thanks for the tip, CTP.

    Right now, I am looking at the master that Pops posted and the Milw and KC plays don't even require a formula. I mean, if people can't look down two columns and spot a difference of 4-4.5, then they need more help than we can give them. It's not like the two columns are AB and DH where you might have to hide columns, they're right next to each other.

    Now the master only contains games up to yesterday, and the PDWS has today's games. SO how are we going to get the same things off the PDWS? AT, AU, AV and AW are blank on the PDWS. Do we copy paste or is that what the formula is for? I am getting confused here.
    no master has all games since day one. The only difference is that starting on may 1st the era and whip are this years vs all of april being 2008 data

    also good to see people not following the herd to the betting windows
    I could care less what side the public is on. My plays are my plays. Hard to believe I just found this thread. I base all my plays on my own spreadsheets that I put together. Now I gotta go read 79 pages. LOL
    why, just d/l them from post #1921 and look at them yourself w/o all the reading. there a text file that explains the headers in the master data, but you should understand it w/o that
    I have stats already. tabs after tabs with columns out to BM in some cases (not quite to EK yet). I figured there might be some insight in the 79 pages that I could use to become a better capper. I gather from your comment that it's not worth it.
    a few gem's and words of wisdoms
    love it when people talk data. mo better than talking dirty while fucking

    yes, this is from statfox....just wanted to post if you do not mind pops...

    Pops, also see that all nl team hf3 and up have not lost yet in May...just a quick pro quo


    gotta goto the Trop....temps are starting to warm up to the 90's but Rays haul ass for a week after today. Once they get back, temps outside should be hovering around 90's but humidity still holding strong in the 50-60% range. Last night no one in the trop (5,000 at most) and temps were 74 with 45% humidity.
    no, anyone can post anything they want. i just wanted to make sure that they all had the link and were not waiting for anyone to post the info

    it will be interesting to see what happens with the inside temp and humidity when it get's warm
    thats a tough one to track. almost all a manual effort and look up. let us know if you find anything good
    I took a look at teams coming off an extra inning game and are starting a new series with no rest in between. I added the 'new series' criteria since if the same two teams are playing again then they both have the same disadvantage of going extra inning.

    for 2008, the teams were 46-50. Not much of a fade. I added the criteria where they used at least X (3, 4, 5, 6, 7, etc) pitchers in the extra inning game and it showed no improvement in the trend. (Actually teams that used 8 or more pitchers in the extra inning game were 6-1 in their game on the next day). I am going to add a time of day filter to see if the trend improves for night extra inning games followed by a game the next day.

    EDIT: teams last year were 17-10 coming off a NIGHT extra inning game and starting a new series on the next day.
    i'm down with yer charts and all..but i am a big believer betting against line moves....always have always will...just how i was brought up..bein a railbird u realize u are betting against yer peers setting up #'s...whether they be good or bad..well that is obviously up 2 us to figure out the best way to catch the bread...i only play overs...i don't trust one pigpen out there....seemed like a good spot with padilla out there...win some lose some..i'm already up with man u. today..so the rest of the bases today is gravy..good luck....
    To Pops or anyone in the know of this thread:

    I know I'm coming in late, but I can't find the master file for this anywhere. I looked (used to be in post #9/12 it seems like) but it may have been deleted? If it's a little too late for that I understand, but I'm pretty sure I'll be able to jump right in and might even be of some help. I am currently a major in Mathematics/Statistics with an emphasis in actuarial science and mathematical finance, training to become an actuary (passed the first two exams already). I know math and statistics (as well as some computer science and algorithm design/programming). Anyway, not trying to step on any toes or anything but just wondered if I could get myself caught up to speed. Thanks in advance for any help.
    Ck. post 1989 on pg 80. pops put up a revised '09 master I think.
    all the current spreadsheets i use are updated daily and i upload them in my 1st post for that day. today's are in my post #2035. if you want the 2008 (which is an older format let me know and i'll upload one in rar format as it's 30 mb) i delete all of the older versions as the rx has asked me to keep my files from growing

    I remember you earlier in the thread talking about the 1st Inning stuff and still needed more data. I am just starting to look into it, with a month of games under our belt you have any "tips" ?
    The guy I was trying to emulate just started posting his 1st inning plays 3-1 so far. More studying. I added cols that include home and visitor what they give up and get along with a track of the pitchers giving up in the first. There are no yes plays and no plays are all fades so not a good sign. If you want I will give you all the formulas there are quite a few. At least you will not have to do that part of it. Some would be considered advanced so I don't want to go thru that talk in English thing again but you are welcome to them. Pivots will be generated as we move further if there is a further to move to.
    as most of you already know i'm not totally on board with this one. one season does not make for a gold mine. went thru the same drill with the 5 inn bull shit and came up empty. but the big diff is that ctp is putting in one hell of an effort to come up with something. only time will tell

    Originally Posted by jacksonjohn View Post
    We didn't get much feedback yesterday on ERA vs. WHIP so let's try this.

    Would you give more weight to Total ERA or home vs. away ERA and why?
    the only time i really look at whip is when E or H go at hp. if i see a high number like 4.00 than i know they will help. if i see a low number under 2 than they wont make much difference as most of the pitches are going to be strikes anyway

    SportsOptions is using the actual "dollars bet" in the numbers they are updating in there feeds.

    das is good

    Originally Posted by jacksonjohn View Post
    That's my point. Either "expected" or "projected" means it hasn't occured yet. I therefore thought the EA was a prediction for the upcoming games. You say its "not expected era but projected..." but I don't see the difference in expecting vs projecting. Just semantics I guess.
    i'll try to keep this as simple as possible. the pdws that i upload daily shows the projected ov/un difference vs the opening over and under lines. and you all see those numbers now as well as the cat for those as well

    the EA numbers are the same as what i said above but offset by 30 day of actual games

    nothing more and nothing less. i could add today's into the master b4 i upload it and do the drag down etc. my biggest concern are pitching changes or ppd games etc which could cause me a bigger problem if i dont catch them b4 i do the rest of the data add for closing lines and scores etc

    if there were a few hundred people using that info on a daily basis and all having to do the adds manually i'd be more than happy to do it twice, but i doubt that there more than a couple that would even have a clue as to what they are doing or looking at what say ye all

    I would really appreciate you doing that; I know it would be helpful to me.
    Very excited getting into this; I even have my notebook and pen out taking notes down (and I hardly ever had to do that in school). From what I've read, I know you don't like the "'attaboys", but thanks a lot for putting all this work in and sharing the spreadsheets with others. I for one am very appreciative.
    your right i dont like any fucken attaboys

    Looked up myth busters. Got this one

    A dry baseball can be hit farther than a ball stored in a humid environment.
    confirmed
    The Build Team started off with a small scale test by dropping dry and humid balls from a certain height. The results showed that the dry balls tended to bounce higher than the humid balls. For the full scale test, the Grant built his own rig (dubbed “The Mad Batter”) that could both swing the bat and pitch the ball at the same time. They then tested the rig at a baseball field using humid balls, dry balls, and control balls stored in a normal environment. The results showed definitively that the dry balls were hit the farthest distance and the humid balls being hit the least distance.
    the one thing i wish they would have done as well is to see how long it took for the cooked balls to reach a normal temp after removed from the box

    Originally Posted by jesse1111 View Post
    Pops & Others-I usually go with total era when looking at a game, do you value the rd vs hm more than the total?

    I also look at the Total ERA, I take the others in consideration if the visiting pitcher has struggled big time on the road.
    keep and eye open for major diff between the h&a and avg as well. but i put more value in hom and away, although a few starts either way can cause the major differences as well making the avg closer to reality

    is there a standard time ump's are normally announced? i'm getting n/a across the board from statfox and it's already 4pm eastern
    1st game of a series will normally get posted at mlb or usatoday around 1 hour b4 the start of the game. SportsOptions has them up a few hours earlier than than. i saw the 1st three come up within the past hour or so and are still popping up as the day goes on

    Chart based on over under by day. Pops really likes these. Thought I would catch the get out of Dodge days of which Sunday is probably the only qualifier-not sure. Looks like just play overs on Wed.

    SUN 26-30
    MON 27-25
    TUE 35-28
    Wed 43-26
    Thu 17-17
    Fri 28-28
    SAT 33-23

    Originally Posted by jacksonjohn View Post
    What is the diff between Game ERA (col W) and Total ERA (col Y)?

    Pops, in post 2131 you mention col BK, but on my pdws that column is headed for 1st inning.
    col BG on the one i upload to the share. i have a couple of extra cols in the one i'm using where i put ppd games and dh games so the info come in correctly but there are the same and the cat's for those are in BH

    guys, dont be affraid to ask any questions related to any of the data that's in the pdws or the master. there a ton of stuff there and even i get on track but looking at one of the table wrong

    so when in doubt ask. i sit here in the morning for 4-5 hours with my thumb up my ass and willing to clear up any questions related to any of them. bunch of time i put up the wrong data. just because i upload something does not mean it right. fuck i can fat finger with the best of them

    when i doubt ask ask and mo ask. i cant recall ever saying that any question relating to the data or spreadsheets was a dumb question

    when i doubt ask. only question that's dumb is the one you dont aks

    Originally Posted by LordCC View Post
    POPS

    I am new here & trying to catch up on here as best I can. I guess I will get down to brass tax. You upload 3 different files, what one should I look at in order to make a play?

    Maybe I am looking at it wrong or missing something that is likely the case. Any direction would be greatly appreciated.

    Thanks in advance!
    really only two sheets, one was the last year data that someone ask for. 1st you need to understand what all the numbers are and the relationship of all them to each other. pdws is the most important as it's the starting point for any analysis you do for the schedule games that day. master is only if your a trends bettor (driving forward while only looking thru the rear view mirror)

    Originally Posted by pops69 View Post
    i doubt that many will d/l the data and looks at the numbers, but they one's that do will finally understand why i use buckets for cat ranges
    The only reasoin I would not put things into buckets is if you are trying to roll a bunch of data into one answer. one may find you may need more precision to get to the right answer. Of course then you have to be nervous about getting into the tout trap of this play is 11-1 when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing in from the left at 5mph on a friday in which the day is even
    Oil- for that particular table I would recommend buckets but buckets of 1. Such as .1 to 1, >1 to 2 and so on. Me I don't have much interest in it the discussion was here so I looked end of that.

    As long as you are around. I would recommend going back to categories on home scoring, visitor scoring like last year with the a to f range. Some that come to mind would be team scores more, visitor gives up more, pitcher gives up more, visitor gives up more, include the pen and so on. Might be able to link some of these together to form a nice chain. Ya I understand that is all there but in a different format. Probably will do it on my own. I have the tools somewhere in the master I use.

    Originally Posted by TheJackal View Post
    pops- do you have a method you follow each day when trying to locate the best scalps? Where do you keep an eye out for these?
    early on it OL ML dogs

    Originally Posted by pops69 View Post
    it's wonderful to have all that power at the tip of you mouse and click on the diff pivot tables
    Yes it is, the best part is the info that is posted and shared. Don't know how CTP, oil, and others comes up with all the stuff they post, but its good info.
    I'm still trying to figure out how to add visitor team to some of the over/under and w/l pivots, and yes you have explained it to me several times, I'm a air head, my wife tells me this daily, and I tell her shes a bitch so whats new, just kidding I don't call her a bitch, shes a sweat girl.

    Originally Posted by pops69 View Post
    all women are bitches. they are born that way, and get mo bitcher with age

    what is it your trying to do. i add it to one of the pivots for tomorrow
    You have pivots for home team over/under plus the over/under opening line, not sure if this make sense, I would like to see vistor or road team over/under record with opening over/under line, I think you said its already there, its not jumping out at me, so I guess I don't see it. Don't hurt your head trying help me understand this, I am trying. your wish is my command. it's right next to the home team in the Ov & Un + Umps tab starting in col CA

    Originally Posted by pops69 View Post
    those are some late puppies as well. if they show up b4 i hit the road i'll let you know. if you dont have SportsOptions, suggest mlb.com or usatoday as they will post about an hour b4 the game
    Thanks for the heads-up on where I can look.

    Originally Posted by CTP View Post
    Here is the chart for today. Yesterday sides I marked went 2-4. I advanced this process a bit so table is all outlined for you. Remember a work in progress so enter at your own risk. I never make a decision on a play off of only one entity so this is just another tool. My intent is to link several of these together to make a chain so essence a concensus. Out of here in a few unless the weather changes my plans. For totals like yesterday Philly showed as an over play the chart showed that situation to be 5-0. Also showed Det as an over in a dif. category and the chart showed it to be 11-12 so a pass in my book. There are a couple gems in there so do as you please.

    O/U HM AWY W/L ML
    11-10 d d 9 11-13 NYM PIT HF5 -175
    6-0 b d 10 OVR 1 3-3 PHI ATL HD1 105
    2-2 a f 9.5 3-2 LOS SFO HF4 -153
    11-7 d c 8.5 9-10 MIL CUB HF3 -136
    0-0 e e 9.5 0-0 HOU SDG HF1 -115
    4-4 e c 8.5 3-6 CIN STL HD1 105
    11-7 d c 9.5 9-10 ARI WAS HF3 -131
    1-0 b c 9.5 OVR 1 1-1 COL FLA HD1 110
    2-2 a d 9.5 3-1 BOS TAM HF3 -130
    3-4 d a 9.5 4-3 OAK TOR HD1 105
    2-4 d b 11 OVR 4-2 BAL NYY HD4 150
    11-10 d d 10 OVR 11-13 CLE DET HF2 -121
    4-4 e c 9 OVR 3-6 CWS TEX HF3 -133
    3-2 c e 7.5 3-2 MIN SEA HD1 101
    3-6 c c 7.5 9-3 LAA KAN HD2 116

    Your making it too easy! Even my dumb ass can read numders in col.
    This crap is never easy. Like I said need a couple of these to put together in a string then might have something. Once you get there then you have to track it. Sometimes the very best laid plans end up showing the opposite side and may hold true here.

    Originally Posted by finite View Post
    At 5 dimes the team totaL for the Reds is 4 minus 25 cents. Seem odd? I use feist for weather and he shows around 64 degrees and 58 humidity. so far with the reds this year I see them scoring
    7 8 2
    7 6 3
    5 6 2
    Today we are on consecutive scores of 6 6
    The last 20 times Harang has pitched against a 4 it breaks down 11 under
    2 over
    7 push
    Lohse has given up 4 or more twice this season. Both on 5 days rest. he is off his worst game and on 4 days rest. H is the umpire. with lohse pitching and H the umpire the opponents many years ago came to 2 and 3 runs. those games were at home.
    just hard for me to believe that betting that team total under 4 minus 25 cents is not positive equity.

    no clue on TT, never bet one

    Originally Posted by spesh View Post
    pops ..is it possible to add into the PDWS a column with the specif info from my sheet... like todays az vs wash game it would pop up ARI (-461) and WAS (-500) ? colum heading could be (Team $ W/L )
    i know what your talking about now. yes but you would need to update that daily buy setting up a table with linking to the cell you want in the pdws

    Originally Posted by pops69 View Post
    those have been decent over day for the past few years, even with it being get out of dodge days. sure was in NL but AL all when under. NL continues to be the over machine and could continue today as all of there projected o/u are a couple of runs higher than OL
    Pops, been racking my brain on the nl projected for today, I am not sure if this projection is found on the pdws, maybe column BG?? Using the the o/u difference vs opening line?? I see on the master that you have a projected over/under on column EA, but that info is on master only.

    Just FYI,
    Also noticing a couple of teams with reversal of roles on totals. Minny playing over on the road and under at home...philly playing under at home and over on the road...arizona playing like an under machine on the road (over is 1-9) and over 57% at home, this is intriguing to me, as the stadium must really play in to effect more than we think. Its too bad that the info on the stadium is not readily available. Cuz, this team must be really aweful to only have one over on the road. San Fran over on the road and under at home, Tampa over at home and under on the road, and Cincinnati over at home and under on the road. These spreads are at least 20% difference, I do not recall seeing as many discrepancies in the recent past. Especially on the teams that have been banging unders at home and overs on the road. We now bout the home team over parks.
    projected is a poor choice of words on my part. i'm referencing the 3 col to the left of Home Streak on the pdws as well as the one to the right of the Vis CAT H/U vs ERA Diff which is the difference between the starting pitchers era's and the OL o/u line

    Not me sir, I did not classify Fletcher as a permanent under ump. Just was going through the average runs per game for him for this year and just pointing out the low amount of runs scored per game so. And did not see any real stud pitchers on the games he has been behind plate. I know better with e and h, as they have been those guys whom consistently call the game as they see it.....blindly...

    I have been gone for a bit, but are these the crews that are still going? These were the crews picked and set on April 4. If you could let me know that would be great. Also, do the Umps keep the same rotation for every series? I wouldn't think so, but just curious.

    CREW A CREW B CREW C
    17 Hirschbeck, John ['00] 25.5 5 Scott, Dale ['01] 23 4 Tschida, Tim ['07] 23
    35 Bell, Wally 16 41 Meals, Jerry 12 61 Davidson, Bob 20
    60 Foster, Marty 10 46 Kulpa, Ron 10 45 Nelson, Jeff 11
    51 Hudson, Marvin 9.5 16 DiMuro, Mike 9.5 48 Carlson, Mark 9.5
    CREW D CREW E CREW F
    38 Cederstrom, Gary ['08] 15 3 Welke, Tim ['00] 25 37 Darling, Gary ['04] 22
    7 O'Nora, Brian 12 55 Hernandez, Angel 16 29 Hohn, Bill 20
    25 Culbreth, Fieldin 12 77 Reynolds, Jim 9.5 1 Dreckman, Bruce 9.5
    78 Wolf, Jim 7 52 Welke, Bill 9.5 50 Emmel, Paul 9.5
    CREW G CREW H CREW I
    18 Reliford, Charlie ['04] 19 22 West, Joe ['03] 31 23 Reed, Rick ['99] 27
    27 Vanover, Larry 16 19 Rapuano, Ed 18.5 8 Kellogg, Jeff 16.5
    34 Holbrook, Sam 8.5 43 Schrieber, Paul 11 47 Wegner, Mark 10
    58 Iassogna, Dan 7 96 Nauert, Paul 8.5 95 Timmons, Tim 9.5
    CREW J CREW K CREW L
    32 DeMuth, Dana ['99] 25 11 Montague, Ed ['96] 33 12 Davis, Gerry ['99] 25
    44 Danley, Kerwin 12 24 Layne, Jerry 20 9 Gorman, Brian 17
    88 Eddings, Doug 10 59 Randazzo, Tony 9.5 54 Bucknor, CB 10
    21 Wendelstedt, Hunter 10 68 Guccione, Chris 2 57 Everitt, Mike 10
    CREW M CREW N CREW O
    2 Crawford, Jerry ['98] 32 36 McClelland, Tim ['00] 26.5 13 Cousins, Derryl ['08] 30
    20 Hallion, Tom 16 65 Barrett, Ted 12 66 Joyce, Jim 21
    10 Cuzzi, Phil 10 53 Gibson, Greg 10 26 Miller, Bill 10
    15 Hickox, Ed 4 49 Fletcher, Andy 9.5 71 Runge, Brian 10
    CREW P CREW Q
    30 Marsh, Randy ['98] 27 31 Reilly, Mike ['00] 32
    33 Winters, Mike 19 14 Meriwether, Chuck 17
    72 Marquez, Alfonso 9.5 56 Cooper, Eric 10
    67 Barksdale, Lance 5 63 Diaz, Laz 10

    Pops I agree. Just to add to this though my own experience. I played little league with Dimuro who at the time you may remember his father was a MLB ump. Mike jr. would ump games when our team was not playing. Even at 12 years old I recall him talking about how he felt as far as making pitchers throw strikes.

    Now a few days ago Mike was behind the plate in the NYY game and I had the Over. Late in the game 8th or 9 ninth inning I think, the game was just shy of getting up and over the 9.5 I think it was. Mike squeezed that strike zone on the new reliever who walks the bases loaded and then the next pitcher walked in the run that made the game go Over. I felt like Mike knew I was on that Over.
    nothing better than 1st hand experience and knowledge of the ump or players. i agree with what you said

    Originally Posted by RiNo808 View Post
    okay guys im new to this, and my question is what does pdws stand for, how to i use it in conjunction with the master sheet, what are cats, and what does the h1,2,3 etc stand for...thanks in advanced...
    pdws=pitcher data worksheet. it's just the same info that everyone pulls from the web manually or at the sheets they give out at the casino but list's all the key pitching data home and away for each pitcher

    cat are just buckets for sets of data to but them into logical groups. nothing you can do with numbers like .001, .002, 003, .... .050 on both the plus and minus side h=home v=visitor, d=dog, f=fav, a=avg

    master is only all of the pdws data for every game. pdws is looking forward and master is looking backwards at history and trends

    Originally Posted by baccy View Post
    Pops what do you think is crazier.

    The Yankees a few weeks ago with, if i remember correctly, CC pitching on a saturday vs the angels and the yanks were -240?

    Yanks lost (i hit the angels ~ that's why that game sticks out so much) the game and I normally shy away from playing big dogs like that but I really liked LA for some reason, can't remember it now though.
    yep, do recall. early on in the season, dog's rule

    Originally Posted by pops69 View Post
    no shit, 18 hits. looks like lincecum could be a one year wonder. e sure drawing the worst of the worst (wonder if it's a plan, sure looked the same way last year as well early on)

    Pops, I specifically watched the broadcast of this game. The New York Met annoucers made reference to Eddings behind the plate. What they had said is that the last couple of times that New York has had him behind the plate that his strike zone has gotten alot smaller than what they were used to seeing from him in the past. Noting that with the umpire tracking system in place may or could have something to do with the fact that he has kinda gotten away from being a pitcher's umpire. I find it kinda of strange to an everyday fan that the announcers would bring this up. But, knowing what e has done in the past just goes to show you that the players, coaches and annoucers do know what the umps call and dont call and do take notice. So, maybe e has not been getting good reports from the men upstairs and the outside corner strike in the past may have turned into a ball so that the hitters can be more selective.
    interesting on the zone comments. if the coaches are doing their job, they tell the hitters to swing and pitchers to not throw strikes. but only 5 bb not sure that would qualify as a tight zone vs swinging at most of the pitches, 25 hits is sure a bunch in anyones books. plus there were 19 k

    Originally Posted by Intrinzik View Post
    Hey Pops and everyone else in this thread. I have been a lurker this entire season, because I didn't want to really get started in MLB until I had a solid month or more of data to work with. Now that I do, I try to integrate the daily PDWS by copying and pasting it into the master, and pulling down the formulas for all cells to the right of Col CM. The problem is, some of the data does not show up when I pull down the formulas. The formulas will be there, but no data is showing up. It will just be empty while some cells in the same Col will have the correct data. Also, I am having a problem with two of my Col's that just say #VALUE!. I assume this has to do with the data in certain cells not entering, but I can't be sure.

    Anyways, I took a screenshot of what the Master looks like after I copy and paste the daily PDWS in, and I have inserted arrows to show the exact areas I am having a problem with. Sorry if there is a simple answer/resolution to this, but I am not that great with Excel but am learning (took a lesson from CTP, which I would recommend to anybody). Thanks for any help you guys can provide.

    http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/5728/excelq.jpg
    u dont have to do that!!! i update the master daily with all the pdws data from the nite b4 once i get all the final data
    I know, but I am looking to get everything filled out (from Col CM to Col EE) before the current day's games. CTP says he knows how to do it and will help me either later today or tomorrow morning.
    I see where the difference is, you used Pops' master sheet for opening lines. I used scoresandodds.com opening line.
    because what ctp told you to do will not work. i told him that myself. you need to trick the spreadsheet into thinking the games have already been played

    Originally Posted by GMSI View Post
    Pops,

    Got a question, I have never used pivots but do have some basic excel experience, say I wanted to add a column for 1st Inning stuff showing each teams L10 record for N, how would I go about that?

    thx,

    GMSI
    the pivot tables are already made in the master. you just click down filter arrows to change any of the basic items i have at the top. do you want to specifically change any of the one's i have there or want diff ones from one i have?

    Originally Posted by jblonghorn View Post
    Forgive my ineptitude, but I never see Pops posting plays? It seems that he's the genius of the spreadsheet however. I see others taking stabs at plays due to trends and such? Am I not looking for the right thing?
    guess you have not look hard enough, but i have. also there are other's on here that helped me put all of this together that know how to use the data as well as i do, if not better and post decent plays as well. it's not for me to bless them with holy water or be one of those "i'm on them as well" or "love your picks"

    i try my best to make any i post as invisable as possible
    So you want someone to do the work in setting up a spreadsheet, do the work in analyzing the data, and then you want them to post the plays so you can make money?

    I mean, is that how life works? Would you work 6 hours a day on this shit and then think, "I have to post the plays so the people who haven't done jack-shit can make money!!!" ... would you really do that?

    You might thinks other do it ... but they don't. If someone posts plays, (a) he is looking to be a tout and charge you someday or (b) he picked the plays out of his ass and doesn't mind sharing it.
    the only other thing i would add to this is that many OS and services d/l this info and look at my threads etc. i gave them way to much info regarding how and why we were betting hoops 2nd half plays. they made major adjustments and easy money when out the door. no need to put this up that can come back and bite you in the ass down the road

    i believe in general that many of the people that are d/l the spreadsheets and reading the posts from time to time and doing a decent job of drilling down and finding the sweet spots w/o getting much more focus for my old ass highlight data and info

    Originally Posted by patswin View Post
    pops on the master can you explain what the pivot is 2nd from the left on the cat pivots tab? i understand that is where the data comes from on the 3rd pivot in but I am having a hard time understanding it. What I don't get is count of home w/l and home close cat where there are different cat ranges such as hf1,hf2 etc..what does this track?
    i use that more than most. what you need to do is click on the pitchers for the game for today. i dont do it on the initial update. you just click in that Home pitcher down arrow and un check the select all and than just click on the pitcher you want to see info on. i look specifically what pitchers started and how the line moved on them

    Originally Posted by Hip2Bsq View Post
    Thats exactly what happened in Toronto today. Larry Vanover dissapeared from the crew that is on the field. Reliford was suppose to be behind the dish today but he is at 1b once again and Sam Holbrook is the hp ump. Should have been a good thing for the over but only 4 runs through the 7th.

    the announcers kept stressing that when the roof is closed in TOR that the ball doesn't carry when it's open the ball jumps out

    I played E behind the plate last time he was in NY even with Pops telling me not to. Lost the under 10.5. Is there a problem with H in NYC, Pops?
    NYY under at home is getting easier to take with the inflated lines, though ... especially with the myth of the wind tunnel. Give me moist balls, 50 degrees tempeature, a wind blowing in and a line inflated by 2 runs, and I can take the under.
    he never pitched in the new stad, just going by what he told me b4. i'll hold on the new park until i get a better read on it. just me being carefull

    Originally Posted by pops69 View Post
    P=increase in ML. you can click on the 1 to the right and it will bring up the detail of the game
    ok i think i got it now, thanks for the explanation. also just to clarify the pivots 3rd and 4th ones in from the left on this tab for hf1, hf2 etc are all classified from what is listed on the pdws, correct?

    good call on not taking NYY under last night, i should have listened. Been taking h games under blindly this year, so far so good, i think its only his 2nd over so far. figure i've got to come out ahead for the year when all is said and done

    Originally Posted by patswin View Post
    ok i think i got it now, thanks for the explanation. also just to clarify the pivots 3rd and 4th ones in from the left on this tab for hf1, hf2 etc are all classified from what is listed on the pdws, correct?

    good call on not taking NYY under last night, i should have listened. Been taking h games under blindly this year, so far so good, i think its only his 2nd over so far. figure i've got to come out ahead for the year when all is said and done

    yes cat's are the same in the pdws and master. the cat's tab in the spreadsheet show the ranges. you can easily change any of the cat ranges in those tables and re run the macro and come up with any ranges you feel are better than mind

    Originally Posted by pops69 View Post
    yes cat's are the same in the pdws and master. the cat's tab in the spreadsheet show the ranges. you can easily change any of the cat ranges in those tables and re run the macro and come up with any ranges you feel are better than mind
    No I can just use the ones you have already set up. Just want to make sure I understand the criteria. I was thinking it would be good to see if itbwas using the closing lines which are much stronger :

    Originally Posted by parlayallday View Post
    Pops,

    Do you using fielding pct. and errors when capping?
    no, nor do i use any batting avg's either

    if you look at the data, un earned runs are such a small factor it would be like trying to find fly shit in pepper

    with respect to batting, i do pay attention Sports Options notices if key people or not going to be in the line up as key people being out will result in decent moves that i can take advantage of or dump an pre buys i might have on that team as well

    Originally Posted by pops69 View Post
    i dont watch any games, so good to hear that. when i looked at the box scores in most of his games everyone was hitting the shit out of the ball

    got to stick with the under tonight as well
    his first game this year @ SF which went over with the closing number ( I grabbed a push with 8) the Giants analyst Mike Krukow said E looks like a guy who goes out there wanting to call a strike and he also said he has a very generous low strike zone

    I've watched all but one of his games and he's still calling an E type of game

    Originally Posted by Spread Offense View Post
    I know that every year is different, im not looking into trends or anything like that - was never a huge believer in those. been digging deep into your sheets and being a stats guy, i need thousands of games and results for any level of confidence. is there any chance you could upload the old ones in rar, or would it be a lot of trouble to do that?
    just remember almost everyone of my previous years in in a diff order format etc. i made a note to look on my various nas storage units.

    Originally Posted by spesh View Post
    pretty sure the streaks were wrong on PDWS...if anyone using it.
    they come directly from the link below, and i did a manual check this morning and they appear correct

    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

    i do know that in the month of april the numbers were not correct as it was the last link i updated around may 1st. one of the reasons that the daily pdws numbers would not be correct is the timing when i upload the pdws data. if i do the info the day b4 it will be wrong 4 sure. but if in the morning than should be ok (that's assuming that mlb.com has updated their's as well)

    this data is for reference only and is not used in any of the pdws calc etc. if i was not so lazy i should have included everything that in the link in the pdws as it's good for a daily starting point w/o having to lookup some of the data manually

    Originally Posted by that one guy View Post
    emmel goes ov on AL games and 8 is pretty low
    i can strees enough how important it is to have watched ump at HP b4 you just go blind with o/u. even the waldo brothers pitching matchup need to be looked at as well b4 riding the train

    Hey Pops, I'm using the Master sheet and need a few details about some of the columns of data..I looked in the definitions document that you posted at the beginning of the year but it doesn't go past Col CM.

    What I am asking is for the definition of the following columns and maybe where you get the data mine the information for these columns:

    Col CU (Home Pitch Pen 30d ER)
    Col CR (30d Home Pitch ER)
    Col CN (30day Home Pitch IP)
    Col CW (Home Pitch Pen 30d IP)

    What I am really wondering is are these averages of the last 30days, running 30day totals, etc? Are these for the entire team or just a particular pitcher? Do you calculate these on your own or do you data-mine them from somewhere on the web?
    Intrinzik- from col CN to EC are all formulas. You should be able to click on anyone in that range see the formula readout. They get dragged down each day. ED and EE are not formula driven they must come from the PDWS I can only assume.
    ctp answered most of your question, but they are pitcher and team specific. all data comes directly off the master from the daily pdws, and are form driven like he said. oil is the grand pupa of this area

    Originally Posted by pops69 View Post
    it will work if you put in values for col's EB and EC than just run the macro and it will generate the cat ranges
    just to add...the value you put doesn' tmatter as long as you keep a number as the calc takes care of the rest. I have found those cat's to be handy for ov/un

    Pops, since you don't accept PM's, I'll have to swallow my pride and ask you to PM or publicly teach to me how to read these spreadsheets, and what to look for in order to make a play? I know you don't like people like me clogging up your thread, but I see some tremendously bright people in here and would like to ride this train through the end of the MLB season. Thanks in advance.

    I also feel that Oilbarrel will get tired of my asking for his plays daily (although he's been as right as anybody on the internet since I started following him), so I'd like to be able to read these spreadsheets and find the plays without having to bother you gentlemen on a daily basis.

    Thanks again for your patience and education.
    noble cause 4 sure. oil and a few others that use the data on a daily bases are normally on the same games as i'm. they are prob much better than most if not all the coin flippers on bet boards or tout services. data is data, trends are trends and dont lie. no room for opinions etc

    as for your request to read and understand the spreadsheets. would be more than willing to help. i sit on here for 4-5 hours every morning b4 i need to get working for the day on my own shit, and almost never get one question regarding any of the numbers etc. have no clue as to your understanding and knowledge of excel or where you stand in the brain food chain etc

    like i always said, buy a hungry man a big mac and he's full, but give him a gun and he can rob a 7-11 and get all the free meals while relaxing in jail

    Originally Posted by jblonghorn View Post
    Who is Waldo may I ask (this is part of my learning curve that I spoke of yesterday Pops)? Thanks in advance.
    if i said hirschbeck and eddings every dick brain in the world would get down on them as early as possible and fuck up the number for every one else (especially the Oddmakers who are now in the process of setting the HIRSCHBECK number as low as possible for sunday in the Pittsburg game. nothing better than letting the whole fucken world know that HIRSHBECK is got to be behind the plate in PITTSBURG on sunday for get out of dodge day so that EVERYONE and there fucken brother can start batteing the Very Low Opening O/U line much lower

    that who the fuck waldo is
    Horn- would advise you take some time and go back and read thru the thread- i understand 100+ pages is a bit daunting but after you get by pops telling the world how great they are its not that bad. In years gone by we had a scribe who would take relevant notes as the year went by to make it easier for new folks, however, no one has yet volunteered...
    Maybe pops is influencing me but I don't post picks in this thread for that very reason ... all in all, everyone wants to wake up, scratch their crotch, log into this thread and get picks with no work.

    My policy has been that if someone is going to add value (or at least try to add value) to this thread, then I reply to their posts. If they're a hanger-queen looking for their welfare check, fuck 'em.
    so true. you see those good old boys in all the other threads back slapping etc or if the guy post 14 out of the 15 games they ask what do you think about that one type question.. what a waste of fucken time
    Go to church tomorrow and preach if you must. Pops just says what a few of us want to say but don't.

    He has called me worse than this in the past and the guy he called out shrugged it off. It's no big deal.
    it's not about being pissed off. i got my un 9 +105, and normally get the best number possible on any of my action.

    it's about keeping as low key as possible so that everyone get's the best number possible, and not giving the gods of OL any ammunition to adjust numbers to take away any edge the bettors might have

    Originally Posted by Degenerate7 View Post
    hey pops you like any series that are starting today?
    i never have any opinion in advance on any series or game. i just follow the data and trends and hope for the largest ML moves possible on OL fav
    You're like me, Pops. I do my best capping when it's not in advance of games too. I prefer to do it the next morning. I think I am hitting 87% on those plays.
    guess most of us have had a great month during May ... if anyone has followed the data ... or if the hanger queens have followed oil barrel or jacksonjohn.

    Teams have (for the most part) done what they are supposed to do. I am just worried about when the usefulness of the data is going to end.

    When are we going to get the shit to change? or will it change to a point where the teams, pitchers and ump rotations become unpredictable again? It just can't keep going like this ... or can it?
    previous years, patterns would start to change in July (i'm talking ML moves on opening fav) if you use the moving 2 month like i do on the pivots you should stay in the groove plus i've added the 1 month thing as well to even make it easier. data is data, never changes by opinions etc. it is what it is. OL normally reflect data but are influenced by bettors and adjusted accordingly. stay with the numbers and you should be way ahead of the game by year end

    Originally Posted by Hip2Bsq View Post
    Pops, girlfriend came home early in the second inning and started doing shots. Then I could not pay much attention after the second inning. I had to do her!

    I do recall a called third strike in the 1st inning that looked way inside. The early runs scored were due to the Mets running on the Pirate catcher who dropped the ball and threw wildly down to second.

    I will see if I can watch the DVR on MLB.com for a better report later on today. I am sorry, I had to take one for the team last night you guys woulda been proud of me.
    yep had my share of "dick doing my thing" after i got smarter found that pussy is pussy and it's always there and you will never wear it out. i'll take mo money every time as it can buy mo pussy

    Originally Posted by twjd View Post
    If I used the data correct, P2 with an opening line of 9 was 20ov 9un. Check me out if you get time after work, I could be wrong.
    apples and oranges. P and H etc are the trends as to what happend when pitchers with those specific numbers play against each other. so if you find a specific trend etc your prob betting everything within that range (like you did) but the game still has individual pitching matchup and other factors which are weather and ump

    Originally Posted by twjd View Post
    Have it broke down to the yellow high-lighted games.
    Met is 7.5 -130, not paying -130, and the ump era is 9.36 No Play

    Houston has two shit pitchers, no under play for me.

    Balt/Sea has two low era pitchers, no over play for me.

    Still looking at Cinn/Stl game under and Tor/Laa over.
    just remember it's tough to pick and chose when your following trend lines unless your able to filter the data even further with other factors and variables and see if it's a specific block is causing that to exist. eg o/u 9 are 50/50, but if you factor in day night it's 80/20

    Originally Posted by cincy_ View Post
    Exactly. For people who are wondering how this matters, I found two paragraphs from a writeup by Sixth Sense on the Super Bowl which ended 27-23.

    Team specific capping:

    Pittsburgh averages just 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl but allows just 3.9yppl against 5.1yppl. Arizona averages 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl but allows 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. Those numbers indicate Pittsburgh is about 0.5yppl better than Arizona. My numbers on this game also favor Pittsburgh by about five points although the predicted total is about 50

    Situational capping:

    It’s also important to note Pittsburgh allows 3.9yppl against teams averaging 5.1yppl, meaning they are 1.2yppl better than an average team on defense. Those numbers represent the regular season numbers. I looked back over all the Super Bowl’s going back to 1972. Since that time, only four teams have entered the SB with a defense that is 0.7yppl or better. Those four teams won their games 24-7 (1973), 16-6 (1974), 31-19 (1979) and 48-21 (2002). Clearly these teams perform very well in the SB.

    I have come to the conclusion that both techniques have their flaws, but when they both point in the same direction, it's worth a nice play.
    when you look at various trends, you need to see if there are other factors which influence those. in tw analysis it would be d/n, temp, humidity and umps. all of those have cat ranges except umps which are only specific numbers to see if any of those are big factors one way or the other for that being as large or small as they are. cause and effect. maybe yes, or maybe no. if you can find any than you have to go with the entire group until the numbers start changing. a few things last year stayed for the entire year. this year some of those ranges have changed or moved

    every game is a unique event with random outcomes effected by many different variables. it's called gambling

    Originally Posted by a153 View Post
    Why do you guys say Eddings is a under umpire? I don't seem him calling anything out of the ordinary.
    In years past, he didn't even have to call strikes. Batters would swing at everything because he was at HP, and starters could go 7-8 innings. He didn't get huge K numbers because batters rarely took a lot of pitches.
    its more than just his o/u numbers........for example compare his strike% with other umpires.......people just look at the obvious stats you have to dig a little deeper it you want a bone every now and then.
    Strike % doesn't really tell you anything either. Strike figures include hits plus called strikes. If the batter fouls off first 5 pitches and gets a hit on the sixth pitch that is 6 strikes and 0 balls called. Eddings was an awesome under ump his first 10 years but now his strike zone is too inconsistent. He'll call strikes on pitches foot off the plate but call balls on pitches over the plate. I think he is the worst umpire in MLB. The best under ump last few years have been Fletcher and Foster. Their strike zones are consistently large.

    Originally Posted by Intrinzik View Post
    Hey Pops,

    Where do you get the data for the PDWS? Like the ERA and WHIP data? MLB.com?
    OL and CL from donbest.com, pitching closing numbers at mlb.com as well as streaks, weather at vegasinsider.com, projected umps ad statfox.com, pitching home and away era at statfox.com as well

    Originally Posted by a153 View Post
    Why do you guys say Eddings is a under umpire? I don't seem him calling anything out of the ordinary.
    where u one of those that had the NYY un 10- as a no brainer pick for yesterday, than blame him for it not staying under. even waldo had them under yesterday and he went 1-6. it was one of the largest moves o/u from the OL way b4 anyone knew he was at HP

    tex has one of the worse pigs in baseball, plus free swinging in the new stadium. the elmo brothers will move the piss out of the numbers. get the info early and take advantage of that.

    as i've said thousands of times b4. umps dont make overs or unders. they are just one factor in the game of life
    i would agree for all except h, he is a big factor in the o/u imo, he has a rep for being a pitchers umpire, players know when he is behind the plate they will not get close calls. if you go back in history he is the most under biased ump in baseball. decided to hang in there for bases when i saw he was coming back, i blindly play his game unders, have for a few seasons. sure you will lose some games but you will come out ahead every season

    Originally Posted by zjp6050 View Post
    oil - why tb tonight? bannister is pitching well this year and longoria is set to be out tonight. along with of course bartlett and iwamura.
    fair comment- I don't look at lineup changes if I assume that is one of the reasons why the line has dropeed from -150 to -140. As for bannister the only thing i'll mention their is i'm just following the trends of when pitchers like bannister and nieman match up. again i don't know what the outcome is going to be, but i do think that tampa wins this game more time than not givne the line.
    i've said this many time b4, key people out of the lineup effects the ML moves but not the outcome of the games. i love those situations and take as much advantage of them as possible for scalps with early notification from Sports Options, but they done effect the outcomes in any major way

    side note for the nl games i mentioned- i've looked at them a bit more and can't figure out why people would be on either side of the game. seems like a rock push to me...
    looks as if it didn't matter one bit! wish i had jumped on but already had my 3 plays for today hooked in. 8-0 rays, and a no hitter against KC so far lol

    nothing better than a little gas on the fire while kicking tires this morning waiting for the opening bell and numbers as well.

    so here's my top 5 dirt bags

    5. actors (shit for brains and no common sence. just line readers)
    4. lawyers (only thing good about class action is mo money in there pockets)
    3. gamblers (never have one as your friend. they will rob you or anyone else to get mo money
    2. politions (99% are flat out liers and they only people they want to help is themselves)

    so what do you think would be my number 1
    number 1, blood sucking dirt bags skum of the earth are:

    Politions that are Lawyers and Gamblers

    Originally Posted by parlayallday View Post
    pops do you know anything abou the UMP tonight in Boston? I really like the over.
    sports opions will have that info early. around 2-5pm est

    Originally Posted by jblonghorn View Post
    Pops, what is it specifically that I should be looking for on your PDWS sheets in order to make a correct wager? I've been quietly following for a bit of time now and still really don't see much sticking out?
    as u said most h&a are close to the vest. a couple ofdecent diff in the o/u that should be checked out with other factors to see if they line up. but now blow out's like the nyy over number from yesterday

    Originally Posted by zjp6050 View Post
    pops - sorry for the stupid question. this waldo is more or less an U ump?
    yes, if you look back you should find who the waldo brothers are

    plus cws are 13 unders and 2 ov may and jun. and are 3-1 unders in day games as well. plus both pitcher with high whip's which will help with walks as well

    Originally Posted by Fennis Dembo View Post
    Pops--question about Home and Visitor categories and certain "crossover" numbers.

    For example, when a visitor opens at -125 and the dime line makes the home team +115, that would look like a VF2 and HD1. The master uses category 1 for both teams, though. I understand the need for consistency but I am wondering if there is any reason for the choice of cat 1 vs. 2.

    Now for example lets say the home team opens at -125 and the dime line for the visitor is +115. In this case, the master calls the home team HF2 and the visitor VD2. So here it uses cat 2.

    This is also the case for other "crossover" lines, like a -145, +135 line.

    I'm just wondering if there is any reasoning behind this setup. Feel free to answer this later, tomorrow, whatever. I know showtime comes early today.

    thx
    there's really not that much though that i put into my CAT other than trying to lump them into individual buckets to have a smaller amount of data points to for analysis. i said it b4 many time, if anyone has cat ranges that they feel are better or worth a look just let me know. it takes about 2 min to change the numbers in those tables and run the macro and generate new pivots based on those values. let me know and i'll set it up in two diff masters to see if we have an ant or elephant
    p.s. to look at crossovers you need to look at the pivot tables for HF-HD that close at HD-HF
    I'm not thinking so much about opening favs that close as dogs and vice versa, but lines that cut across more than one category because of the dime line. I agree that it probably does not matter what the categories are but I'm wondering if it matter that a visiting fav of -125 is VF1 (and HD1) on the sheet but a home fav of -125 is HF2 (and VD2). Seems like both those should be 1s or 2s.

    For an example of this compare the cats for rows 27 and 41 on the master. Row 27 is a cat2 but row 41 is a cat1.

    I will have to play around with this when I have more time, but thought I would ask first just to see if there was some logic behind it. Thx.
    p.s. just looked and it's just like i said above. i do now know what you mean, as what i should have had was a seperate table for the Home Fav vs the Home Dog. just tried to make the macro and calc as simple as possible for analysis
    Fennis Dembo: all the cat that the macro's use are in the CAT Ranges Tab in the master. ML range you referenced starts in row 20 thru 26 rows b,c and d

    just a few general comments, as it appears that some of you are all over the map

    1. the pdws is the info that most people use to bet the games from (that type of info eg. era's and whip info etc. and that is why you see games get bet up from the OL either up or down like the cws game the other day where you had very high starting pitcher numbers so around 90% of the o/u bets were to the over. plus this is the basis that the line makers use to set the OL numbers etc. you can generally open the file and within 1 min know which games are going to be bet up or down. even the casino provide daily bet sheets with these type numbers on them for the people that walk into the casino and look at the game and bet them

    2. the master data base is where all of the history for the year is located and where you find the info for all the enternal factors that allows you to take advantage of the moves that happen above from 90% of the people betting.

    3. the daily weather with you all know the link for

    4. HP umps which you all know from the link as well, plus using Sports Options for the 1st game of a series

    you only have 4 simple tools to use to get all the data and numbers you need to do your analysis

    as i've said a thousand times b4, it's not rocket science, it simple basic common sense.

    Originally Posted by pops69 View Post
    2008 master didnt have temp and humidity info. ref me the post number so i can see what you really asking for

    Hi pops, in post #321 you mentioned that the 2008 master was updated with temp and humidity info from user ljump12:

    http://forum.therx.com/showpost.php?...&postcount=321

    I'm actually just interested in temp and humidity so if that info is available in a different file, I would love to have that as well. I want to do some analysis on the effects that weather has on totals.

    I did some data crunching on the 2008 data and did not find anything interesting for humidity. Temperature did show a much nicer pattern.

    Something interesting did show up when you combine the two.
    If humidity > 65 and temp < 70: 193-151 56.1% UNDER

    Here's the breakdown by temperature listed by temp range then Over %.
    <49.9: .319
    50-59: .460
    60-69: .468
    70-73: .478
    74-76: .525
    77-80: .538
    81-85: .507
    86-90: .564
    >90: .485

    You can see that colder weather favors the under and warmer weather favors the over. In weather >90, there were only 70 games so that could just be an anomaly or perhaps if it's too hot, the batters struggle?

    Of course this is all based on 2008 data. pops if you want to upload the 2007 master list, I could run ljump12's python weather script for it.

    Originally Posted by CondorHero View Post
    hey pops, do the OL take umpires into account?
    I know you specifically mention they adjust for E but what about for everyone else?
    What about on the first game of a series when umpires are not known?
    not all, but for a fact 1 run on the waldo bros, and a half on a few that they know bettors follow as well. and they do take know external fac

    Originally Posted by superstarjay View Post
    just like you said it would open
    well even an old blind squirel can find an acorn in the snow every now and than

    Originally Posted by jblonghorn View Post
    Yes, but with 95% of bets on under....I don't care who's behind the plate, that's a tell tale sign of an over occurring. I wonder what the % is at now?
    those are amount of dollars bet vs number of bets. your money. i play those safe vs sorry. gl. number is 87% now but will hit 70-80% by game time
    I am as contrarian as they get..but if thats all it took...i would have retired from this along time ago...i like the indications those #s give..and wish u luck..but for me i look at both sides of the coin and if the UN ump is regressing back to his mean...we are in store for plenty of UN.

    Originally Posted by jacksonjohn View Post
    I don't understand why there's a difference in the sign (+ or -) for columns AX and BG on the pdws.

    For example, todays game between PHIL/NYM has a -10.15 in col AX, but a +11.35 in col BG. Just looking at the ERAs it looks like it leans to the over, so I don't understand the - value in col AX.

    I understand that AX is home vs. visitor and BG is overall ERA, so is the difference in this case really that huge?
    Home vs Away is the era of both pitcher when they pitched at home or on the road for the visiting pitchers. the other is total era of both pitcher for all the games they started. home and away can be distored because of only one game (or a few games pitched at home or on the road with very high era for those games) i look at both for a pattern of home or away pitching or just a game or two etc. you can just look at that specifc pitcher in the master and see what going on

    Originally Posted by asudevil88 View Post
    Here is a site that gives the status of the roof. If the roof is open, the panels are open. If the roof is closed the panels are closed. I called in to the office to verify this.

    http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/.../roof_info.jsp
    i dont believe that when the roof is closed the panels are close because of one important fact. game time field temp. i have temp readings at game time that were close to 80 and the roof was closed. no way it would be that high with AC on and panels closed
    Info on Arizona's stadium

    With an elevation of approximately 1,100 feet above sea level, Bank One Ballpark is the second-highest facility in the major leagues, trailing only Coors Field in Denver. Scientists have estimated that a fly ball will travel seven feet farther for every 1,000 feet of altitude. When the hot desert air blows in, the heat makes the ball travel even further.
    That said, the park doesn't appear to boost run production significantly - in fact, it has depressed home runs in three of the past four years, and played neutral as far as scoring runs is concerned. The center field wall is a goodly 407 feet away, and the 25-foot wall there is hard to clear; in addition, the walls slope steeply away from the already longish power alleys towards center field, so that the wall is actually 413 feet away from the plate at its furthest points, about 20 feet to the left and right of dead center.
    In addition to the length of the lines, the roof is typically closed from mid-May to nearly the end of the season, because of the summer desert heat. The ball doesn't carry nearly as well at these times - in 1998, scoring and homers increased by 21 percent and 28 percent respectively when the roof was open.
    The quirky angles around the foul poles, where the fences angle away steeply by about 30 feet, and the large distance from alley to alley makes for a lot of triples

    Originally Posted by World Number One View Post
    havent read all 135 pages of this monster , but was wondering if this thread has made anybody any money .....
    Your kidding, right?!

    I don't think something would have this many posts and this many views without it being a valuable resource. If you can't make money using the data presented everyday in this thread (including the PDWS, Master, various posts with important info) then you are most definitely doing something wrong. In fact, if you are handicapping games for any sport and don't have some type of database, then you are doing it all wrong as well.

    I see you are still one of those who aren't using a database:

    http://therxforums.com/showthread.php?t=675924

    I guess it's up to you whether or not you want to have more data than you can even fathom to look at while handicapping a game, which would in turn lead to smarter decisions on your part on what to bet.

    If you hate money, I would avoid this thread like the plague if I were you.
    Also, addressed to CTP: I do believe you guys are making money in here which is why I've started checking (and even posting a play that happened to be a winner the other day) with more frequency. I didn't get a chance to see your plays but I'm sure if I went back a few days, I would be able to verify your impressive record -- I wish I had tailed.

    You in here have the most organized database system of anyone I've come across (that is open to everyone, so excluding MJ). But my point was that it's tough for people like me and the poster above who want to get involved with what you're doing, but don't have the attention span to read through a 135 page thread in order to catch up. What makes things even more difficult for us is how you all like to speak in code.

    And as I said, people spend hours and hours of researching and still come out losers. The only way to verify that you're profiting is by posting and recording plays. That said, I do believe you are making money in this thread and I would like to start to make money alongside you guys
    don't mean to butt in here, but i really don't think anyone in this thread cares about verifying to anyone else that they're making money. no one in here is posting their GOY! or touting their "$10,000 throw-it-down monday game" in the forum because i just don't think they really give a shit about that. download the pwds and master files, and look at the huge database of knowledge there. if you take the time and ask questions about anything you're confused about in the files (any of the columns, meanings, etc) you will get your questions answered here. people just think there's a "code" because they don't want to take the time to read into it. you aren't going to make money betting on baseball, or any sport for that matter, by looking at some stats and trends for 10 minutes or tailing anyone's plays on an internet forum.
    It will be well worth your time effort to start at the beginning and get an idea of what is going on. You don't need to read every post, there are some key individuals I would pay attention too, here's a few, Pops, CTP, Oil, Spesh, there are others and I'm not trying to discredit anyone else. If your wondering if anyone is making a profit, look at the ones that have been around for a while, quitters never win, winners never quit.
    Accountability???

    That's a nice word ... but you are never simply "accountable" ... you are always "accountable to someone".

    Now since I don't charge people for picks, I don't need to make picks. So all in all, I am not accountable to anyone, am I?

    What has happened with you is that you have grown accustomed to reading the "HEY LOOK AT ME .... I AM BETTING $10,000 ON THIS GAME" type of thread on the RX. In this thread, nobody cares and things are different. You need to get used to it, and it looks like you will
    Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    I get the abbreviations thing, but for instance who are "the waldo brothers"?
    from the book where waldo, are two umps eddings and hirshbeck. if you even read a few pages of text you would know wtf they are

    no one has a clue where they are going to turn up, so therefore it's searching for waldo brothers

    Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    (4) Obviously everyone uses the information in this thread in different ways, but generally speaking, do you only play totals? It seems to me that this information could be equally useful for playing sides. For example, a free swinging team like the Rays could benefit from an ump with a wider strike zone then say the A's or Red Sox or some team that sees a lot of pitches and works the counts.

    Thanks for the help
    lot of stuff in one question. start in baby steps. 1st try to understand all the factors on the pdws which is the basis for setting the OL and capping in general

    the master is just used to find specific patterns.

    i dont trust using any data source other than my own and it's much faster for me to get data and info using it vs anything else that's available and you never know when OL sources or net will be down

    not true on umps, they are only one factor in the mix and none count for more than 1 run and OL guys take that into consideration in other than 1st game of a series. and that is way i'm always trying to find waldo to take advantage of the OL and moves that will happen once he's discovered. as someone said you better watch some of those umps work the plate b4 you put them into any buckets

    you need a service like Sports Options to get that info as soon as possible. 2 hour jump means at least a point and maybe more

    in previous years i had a thread highlight person, but he went on strike and now owns a part of GM and dont have to work no mo, so you could be caught up and ask specific questions with respect to various data etc

    could care less about you or anyone posting any plays or tracking etc. i'm not here to be a tout wana be
    Perhaps that wasn't the correct word, but what I meant is that you can't be held accountable for poor handicapping since there is no record, but that is not important to the goal of this thread. As you said earlier in this thread (and echoing Pops in his first post), you only feel the need to acknowledge people when they are providing something of value. Hopefully I can help contribute in a small way to this thread and in return, get something out of it.

    Now I see the regulars in this thread are big on details (umps, home/away, indoor/outdoor, wind, humidity, etc.) , and I subscribe to the same philosophy -- there's no such thing as too much information.

    Another thing that crossed my mind was pitchers throwing to different catchers. For instance, my favorite team is the Yankees (not a front runner, I live in NJ, just go to school in South Bend) and it seems like no one wants to throw to Jorge Posada anymore. Obviously he's an asset as a hitter but he and Joba were getting into heated arguments on the mound during his last outing and Joba was clearly affected by it. Back in the day, Mussina and Randy Johnson refused to pitch to him and it seems as if Burnett and Sabathia have similar feelings towards him.

    On the other hand, the young kid Cervelli is getting rave reviews from pitchers in terms of his pitch calling and handling the game. His bat is still developing but in terms of pitching statistics, we may want to consider who the pitcher is throwing to.

    Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    you only feel the need to acknowledge people when they are providing something of value. Hopefully I can help contribute in a small way to this thread and in return, get something out of it.
    to be valuable contributions come in many forms. eg. when you see data in any of my spreadsheets that appears to be or is the wrong info. knowledge of a specific situation that you feel we should be looking at or not know player susp or injury not yet reported or reflected in the numbers

    i doubt very much that anyone here is looking for any one to jump up and be a super star and have a 100-0 w/o record. just try to understand the data, as intel questions when you dont under stand something etc. if it's helpful and easy to use and save you time, your ahead of the game and that's all that counts

    also i have added many items to the data base from suggestion from people and questions that came up hear that, personally have been very helpful to me. in the end, it's all about you and you alone. no one is putting a gun to your head and telling you to use it or what kind of car you have to own etc

    i'm not putting this data together for anyone other than myself the way i want it, because that the way i like it and use it. it fast and easy for me and maybe me alone. i'm just sharing it hear for anyone else that wants it

    nothing more and nothing less

    Originally Posted by Spread Offense View Post
    To address the CERA situation: "The hypothesis most consistent with the available facts appears to be that catchers do not have a significant effect on pitcher performance" (Keith Woolner). Baseball Prospectus writers and Sabermetricians have found that isn't a statistically significant skill and that even it does affect the prevention of runs, it is undetectable and thus has no practical usage.

    That said, I've been looking around google and earlier this year, there was a time when Posada's CERA was around 5 runs higher than Molina's.

    I think the sample sizes are too small to be significant indicators though. And personally, my opinion is that most pitchers who have been in the league for more than a few months call and throw their own pitches enough to where it wouldn't really matter who was catching...
    agree on sample size. same holds true when people drill down too far on pivot tables. tks

    I really didn't mean to seem arrogant or whatever it came off as, and it seems like you might actually be able to benefit a lot from this thread.

    First of all, I think your putting too much emphasis on umpires. They are really just a part of the whole package, not the plurality and definitely not the majority of it. It can just be a good factor into not playing a losing under you really like when say, Schrieber is behind the dish. I think their effect is much greater than most novices tend to see it though. If you've ever played baseball or know it well, it is exponentially easier to hit with a 2-0 count than say, a 1-1 count, which is what a well-known ump can provide. And like pops said, the waldos are mainly and especially helpful when known in advance, for obvious line reasons that don't need to be stated. i don't think anyone in here follows them blindly and i probably wouldn't suggest it.
    Thanks for the info, spread. Without looking up the numbers, I would guess that Cervelli has only caught 20 games this year and before that he was down in Double A so there isn't much info with him. The game the other night with Joba just caught my eye because Posada was coming out to the mound every 20 seconds and they were visibly arguing. Joba's a real mental player (as anyone who has watched him would know) and this seemed to ruin him the other night.

    Just something I'll keep an eye on for the future.

    the master is mainly used to check history and similar occurrences in the past to make sure you're on the right track. if stats similar to what you're looking at add up to a 3-17 record in the past month or two, it's my belief as a stats man that that isn't just some sort of anomaly. this can address your "recent" stats question too, with regards to current performances - just manipulate the pivots, etc and use the data you want. like you said, there isn't a set way to use this data, it's up to you to figure out how you want to manipulate it and make your plays. but if you take enough time, you're sure to find it more useful than anything you've used before. start looking at all the info and you'll catch on...

    Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    Quick questions Pops: what do the O/U ERA cats mean (P1, P2, M3, etc)?
    those are just data ranges. you will find the exact ranges for all of the items that i put into buckets in the CAT Ranges Tab in the master. impossible to track specific numbers as way to many data points. eg. whip would be .001, .002, .003, .004, .005 etc plus and minus and on and on and on. so you just lump areas into buckets to make it easy to find trends etc

    if you have better range buckets just fire away. would take me all of 1 min to change them and run new numbers for every game played the entire year

    p.s. that's also been covered in here at least 20 times so far this year.
    Originally Posted by twjd View Post
    P=plus, M= minus, i think this is correct, look at the PDWS and u should be able to figure it out.
    OU ERA DIFF 1 0 1.00

    2 1.01 2.00

    3 2.01 3.00

    4 3.01 4.00

    5 4.01 5.00

    6 5.01 15.00
    you are correct on the ranges but in the case of o/u M= More projected Scoring vs the opening O/U line. and P=Project scoring to be less the the o/u. if you look at col y, aa and aj it's easy to see which way the numbers mean

    Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    What are the general conclusions to be drawn about humidity? Higher = ball doesn't travel as easily, so therefore less scoring?
    very low H (under 10) and high temp around 90 and junk ball pitchers = mo overs. not much effect on fast ball pitchers. has more to do with the amount of spin pitchers can put on the ball and causing flat curves etc, there's also a bunch of discussion regarding the subject in many previous posts (some are very good and great detail on the subject)

    Originally Posted by cincy_ View Post
    When the "storms are coming", I worry that umps might expand their k-zone just to get the game in. It has fuckt me in the past, so I don't play under when they are trying to squeeze a game in.
    true as well. but if real rain delays than early pitching changes and pigs come in earlier

    Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    What are the general conclusions to be drawn about humidity? Higher = ball doesn't travel as easily, so therefore less scoring?
    Actually the reverse is true. It seems counterintuitive, but humid air is lighter, i.e. less dense, than dry air, so balls travels through it more easily. It has to do with the molecular weights. Plain air, mostly oxygen and nitrogen, has molecular weight between 28 and 32. Water vapor has molecular weight of 18, thus when you add water vapor to air, it lightens it.

    Originally Posted by spesh View Post
    fegh is a type of sushi..

    sushi it is. from now on fegh will = one of the waldo under cover brothers. fletcher, eddings, gorman and hirschbeck.

    i love fucken secret codes

    Originally Posted by jacksonjohn View Post
    I don't understand why the AX col has a negative value in the WAS/NYY game, and the BG col has a positive value when both show almost identical ERAs

    Game ERA = 25.80 Total ERA = 25.10

    AX = -13.20 BG = 14.80
    i mentioned that yesterday. M=Mo runs than the o/u line P=Less


    I know pops claims to not care about getting thanked for his work, so instead, I'll say this for the benefit of anyone who is popping in to this thread just to see what's going on but is unsure if they want to commit themselves to analyzing the spreadsheets, etc. Since using pops sheets to cap games, I've gone 6-0 with totals (3 were posted in this thread, I believe). Now obviously this could be attributed to any number of things, most of all luck, but I would encourage anyone out there to give it a try for a couple days like I did. My guess is that you'll find if helpful and come back day after day like I see many of these people have since opening day.

    Quick question for the regulars in here: what's the difference between total ERA and game ERA? It appears that total ERA is just the average ERAs of the two starting pitchers added together so how is the game ERA calculated?

    For instance: Joba Chamberlain has an average ERA of 3.84 and he's going against Stammen with an average 5.86 ERA. Added together, that gives a total era of 9.7. On your spreadsheet, the Yankees/Nationals have both a "game ERA" and "total ERA" of 9.69/9.7. I understand how you arrived at this number though find it being posted under "game" and "total" ERA a bit redundant, so there obviously has to be a distinction.

    But for many other games, such as say, the Atlanta/Cincinatti game, the numbers are different. In this game we have: Hanson with a 6.17 average ERA and Maloney at 4.50. Added together this gives us a total ERA of 10.67 which is listed under the "total ERA" column. Now my question is, where did the"game ERA" of 6.17 come from? This 6.17 number evidently is the one used to calculate the O/U vs. ERA Diff column because the number listed for this game in this column is -2.83 which added with 6.17 gives us the opening O/U line of 9. Thus far, I've just been looking at the "game ERA" and O/U diff without paying any attention to the total ERA.
    Asked my question too soon, should've looked closer -- still getting used to Excel and these spreadsheets. The game ERA is the addition of the home/away ERAs not the addition of the two starters average ERAs.

    Pops, suggestion for the future: perhaps a column for the average team batting average of the home/away team and even their home/away batting averages could be useful to juxtapose with the home/away ERAs. Same could go for bullpen ERAs (http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_te...it&timeFrame=1) since pitchers rarely go the distance anymore.

    Originally Posted by Spread Offense View Post
    correct. and glad to see you're one of the ones making money now...
    If you follow the numbers, never bet beyond your limits (2% of bankroll), and have half a brain, it's pretty tough to lose money with the PDWS, umps and weather data.

    Not to say that I have gone 6-0 and have been cleaning up, but I have eeked out a small profit ... which would have been much higher if I had been sober when making every wager.

    Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post
    So far at least. Every day I look at the pdws, I find more uses and angles within it. Real fan of what you guys are doing in here.

    most of those are either straight addition or avg etc. if home and away is very very large or small in relation to the all games look to see if a small amount of games with 1 being a real back breaker etc. also anytime you see 4.50 and 1.25 for any number they indicate no starting pitcher era in that col

    Originally Posted by IrishTim View Post

    Pops, suggestion for the future: perhaps a column for the average team batting average of the home/away team and even their home/away batting averages could be useful to juxtapose with the home/away ERAs. Same could go for bullpen ERAs (http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_te...it&timeFrame=1) since pitchers rarely go the distance anymore.
    i would love to put that type of data into the pdws as well as the master. prob is one of data collection. 98% of what you see is collected by my puter automatically into the pdws daily. than i just do a cut and paste into the master and i'm done with the updates. also do i put in the starting line up batting avg (which is what would be the best, than where is than available the night before) vs the team. with respect to pigs that's in the master already

    you give me the location of the data and i'll see if it can be mined. the source you provided can because you need to apply filters to get the info. key to being successful is to get the data and info w/o any fat fingering as fast as possible and than spend the rest of you time understanding the numbers vs finding them


    Page 130 #3250



    Yankees/Nationals + 14.80 which I discussed.

    Milwaukee/Cleveland -4.23. So for this, the "game ERA" came out to 4.23 lower of 6.27 came out to be 4.23 than the over/under line of 10.5. A sure play, right? Not for me, because I don't put as much stock into the home/away ERAs as others may (I generally think homefield advantage is overrated in all pro sports, but especially regular season baseball). So for now at least, I'm only looking at games where the "game ERA" (the home ERA of the home pitcher plus the away ERA of the away pitcher) and "total ERA" are on the same "side" of the opening total. So for this game, the "game ERA" of 6.27 points to an under, but the "total ERA" (addition of each pitchers AVERAGE ERA) of 11.87 would point to an over. No play for me.

    Kansas City/Arizona -4.54. Now I'll be honest, I was very close to pulling the trigger on this game but I was scared away by the low number and by a sense that Greinke was coming back to earth after his scorching start. Judging by what I said about the last game, this should qualify as a play because both the game ERA and total ERA are on the right "side" of the O/U line and both are under it by a sizeable amount. However, pops inclusion of "trends" are valuable because they remind you that all these numbers are AVERAGES of the whole year and you must take into account the ups and downs of a 162 day season. So before making a bet, I take a look at each starting pitcher's game long on ESPN. Here is Greinke's: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...?playerId=5883. As you can see, he was unreal for his first 10 starts of the season (April 8-May 26), never giving up more than 2 earned runs and never being taken out in the middle of an inning. You can see though, in his first two starts his coach took him out of shutout performances after 6 innings and 5 innings, clearly indicating a lack of confidence in his ability to continue. But after his second start, he only went less than 7 once until May 31 so it could be expected that he was going longer in games than he (and his coach/teammates) were accustomed and this has to take a toll sometime, the question is when. Well May 31 he gave up 4 runs (3 earned), more than any all season. The next outing he gave up 7 (5 earned) in 5 innings, and the next game he was taken out in the middle of an inning after giving up 3 runs. And if you look at his stats and game logs from year past, you get a sense that Greinke is returning to his career average of a 4+ ERA. This reason, along with the low number, is why I laid off this game. But that said, I could easily see myself making this a play and losing on it.

    Minnesota/Pittsburgh +2.24. This is the one I believe I posted somewhere in this thread. I'll keep this one shorter: the O/U line was 8.5, 2.24 less than the "game ERA" of 10.74, and even more important to me, it is 2.74 less than the "total ERA" of 11.24. Just a quick look at the gamelogs of Liriano and Snell (both who have terrible records). Both are good for 3-5 runs a piece on average and in case one has an above-average performance, I knew there was a chance of the other pitcher bailing me out with a blowup performance (as they've both shown they are capable over).

    Colorado/Tampa Bay -2.44. The "game ERA" (7.06) of Price and Cook came out to be 2.44 lower than the opening line of 9.5. Just as important to me, the "total ERA" of 6.63 was on the same "side" (under) of the opening line. and by an even larger margin than the game ERA. However, I didn't play this game because I'm still tentative about unders, especially out in Colorado. Furthermore, it was Price's first trip to Coors. Instead, I stupidly played the Rays at what I thought was a good value play at +108. They lost 5-3 and the game went under the posted total of 9.5. Wish I had played it.

    San Diego/Seattle +2.51. In this game, the "game ERA" of 11.01 and "total ERA" of 11.26 came out to be 2.51 and 2.76 higher than the opening O/U of 8.5. Looked at game logs and trends, thought the game would go over. As I said, they scored 6 runs through 4 and 7 runs through 5 but couldn't get the next 2. A loss is a loss but I'm not terribly upset with how I capped the game.


    Other things to look at mlb.com are the team stats of hitting and relief pitching (two things which I would love to see added to pops spreadsheets).

    There's nothing scientific and certainly nothing magical to it. Pops data is very organized, clean, and set up in such a way that patterns, trends, etc. are easy to analyze. But as of yet, I don't have any type of "system" or computer that I plug the data in and it spits out plays like maybe MJ or some other people have. As you can see, there is still some "feel" element to it with the judging what I've seen with my own eyes (i.e. Yankees) and then sensing some trends (i.e. with Greinke coming back down to his career average). Best of luck

    In addition, you should always take a look at the "Master" and look for any trends regarding pitchers vs. teams, umps vs. teams, umps vs. pitchers, etc. Some guys here are big into humidity, temperatures, winds, stadiums, flight times, etc. There's no shortage of information and I believe the more you incorporate the better chance you have at being on the right side. I posted a while back (http://therxforum.com/showpost.php?p...postcount=3388) about some other things that I think about when capping games, including which catchers the pitcher is throwing to (CERA), how hot or cold a team's bats are, how many relievers were used the night before, etc.

    The biggest thing I consider though is the quality of relief pitching for totals. Pitchers hardly ever go 9 innings any more, and usually closer to 6. So that leaves a whole third of the game up to the bullpen. This angle can't be ignored.

    One misconception that I had when just giving this thread a cursory glance every few days is that Pops spreadsheets were GIVING plays and we just had to decode them and to figure them out. Not the case at all. Pops just compiles all the info in neat spreadsheets and it's up to us to interpret them. Everyone can look the spreadsheets and come up with different plays.

    I feel the same way about 5 innings.

    Until we have 5 innings stats, extrapolations don't give me much confidence. CTP knows a lot about 5 innings baseball, and I remember he gave me a few pointers on this.
    5 innings you say. Well this is what I know about that. It used to be in the data per a suggestion from somewhere. I spent countless hours figuring what would be better 5 innings or the game. Later found out most of the lines were wrong and my work was useless. So to make it short I gave up.
    a few years back atlanta asked that i put 5 inning data into the spreadsheets which i did etc. collect data the entire year and i can tell you for a fact that there was nothing in any of the 5 inns that was better than the game results and trents etc. data was difficult to collect and no fruit on the trees so dropped after one year of testing. there have been many other thing that i've tried over the years eg. pitcher and team salaries which didnt produce anything as well so were also dropped

    my advice is to save you money and energy and dont bet 1st 5 inn bets. just a money grabber like 1st inning scoring will be as well. gimics gimics and mo gimics. all designed to take the small bettors money

    civil rights day was not a good day to be on many unders. file that info away somewhere along with the pink bats day as well

    Hey pops, what is gow action? Game of week?
    one of my fav things to do to relax etc. i play Gears of War 2 on xbl ranked matches. right now sitting at a rank 59, very close to 60. my son said that i'm ranked in the top 5% in the world (now that's not really my skill level vs how much i play) tough to beat teen agers. my best game was yesterday, and today will be better than tomorrow. it's all about losing your motor skills as the years go buy

    Pops, if you're still around; what if we put the theory to test tonight in terms of watching the 1st 4 early evening game totals, and if they stay low or go high, follow those on the 2 late games?
    You may find a trend but what is it worth??

    How does a few games played in the East in anyway effect the games on the Best Coast?????

    Technical trend not fundamental.
    jb: coaster is correct on this, but not really a technical trend vs my obversation over the years of putting all this shit together. really no clue as to why it happens or the reasons for it but it sure does most of the time. shit happens

    finished thru page 70. any new to the thread. looks like you only need to do about the 1st 20 pages for the meat. rest is just game day bs on the various plays. LM etc

    Something I have been looking at the last month--

    Team totals. Does anyone look at these on a regular basis? Usually the lines on the team totals will match up with the line for the game. In other words, you would have to lay more for the over for the team total for the game favorite, and more for the under team total for the dog.

    But sometimes the lines do not match up, and that is what I find interesting. Take the Baltimore-Florida game today. At the Greek Fla is -145 and Bal is +121. But, on the team totals, Fla is -125/under 5, -105 over 5. Baltimore is -125/over 4, and -104 under 4. So, to the extent you can read something into this, the favorite is for Baltimore to score more than 4 runs and Florida to score less than 5. That is not consistent with the game line of Florida -145.

    Now I realize that lots of factors go into both the game and team totals lines and you can't read into them this easily, but I see this several times a week and I always wonder whats up.

    I play a fair amount of team totals and have been tracking this particular question since June 5. Since that time, road dogs in this situation are 14-14

    Just wondering if anyone has any thoughts on this...
    i've never bet a team total, nor do i have any data on them

    Originally Posted by pops69 View Post
    never bet a team total nor do i have and data on that area
    I know--not really asking about team totals but what people think that particular situation says about who will win the game.

    I was able to create my own data using the O/U info and fav categories. It was a pain to set up the pivot tables and necessary columns of data but I have it set up where I can see the O/U records for every team total. For example If a team is VD3 with opening line of 9 I can see how many times a team in that spot has gone over or under whatever the team total is set at. Now say the line is -125, and I would need to win that bet 55.6% of the time to make money. If that situation has gone over or under, say, 62% of the time, I bet accordingly. Its working so far but this season but these things never last. Not working as well in IL play so I have been more careful.

    As an example the below (thru June 9) is the table for opening OU of 8.5, and the visiting team total is 4.5. "O" means team went over and "1" means went under. So an 8.5, VD1 with a team total of 4.5 is 11-4 under.

    Home Team (All)
    Day (All)
    League (All)
    Visiting Team (All)

    Count of OU 8.5, vis under 4.5? OU 8.5, vis under 4.5?
    Open Ov/Un Line Visitor Category 0 1 Grand Total
    8.5 VD1 4 11 15 73.3%
    VD2 5 11 16 68.8%
    VD3 10 15 25 60.0%
    VD4 5 15 20 75.0%
    VD5 7 9 16 56.3%
    VD6 3 6 9 66.7%
    VD7 2 2 4 50.0%
    VF1 11 7 18 38.9%
    VF2 2 7 9 77.8%
    VF3 5 5 10 50.0%
    VF4 3 2 5 40.0%
    VF6 1 1 0.0%
    8.5 Total 58 90 148 60.8%
    Grand Total 58 90 148 60.8%


    Something else I've been doing lately that might be of use is looking at the last 7 days hitting stats, instead of season averages

    Page 150 #3729

    Originally Posted by patswin View Post
    see fla dropped to 9 rather quickly yesterday.

    pops been wondering how do you get the data into excel for the al/nl combined. did you write a program to pull the data from the web or is it something one can write themselves? been thinking about setting up my own databases but not sure how to get the data
    it's a straight copy paste special from the daily pdws after the final scores updates, than drag down of the form items, than refresh all. takes all of 2 min a day to update the master

    Originally Posted by patswin View Post
    think some of that can be contributed to the hot and humid weather that is coming back now. going to look at the ov 7 at + odds today in ny.
    just remember your looking at al, nl data, but want analysis of IL game
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  4. #4  
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    Thanks for inviting us in to your new home Pops. Let the show go on.
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    In that FA/OY list, I think both Kevin Millwood and Brandon Webb have retired. Also, weren't those type of pitchers (FA and/or OY) pretty close to being coin flippers last year?
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  6. #6  
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    cant believe baseball is here.. i learned alot in a year from pops and his crew, not only about his data but about gambling in general ( and i have done this along time i think, 27/28 years ). Best advice i could give from what l learned is numbers are key, sometimes best bet is no bet, and unless you understand the dws or parts of do not play games off of it.... discipline is key, there are thousands of games and no need to push the envelope as these is always tomorrow. Looking forward to playing some of the things i learned from last year, alot of good info to be had from all of pops contributors.
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  7. #7  
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    I was in Vegas for New Year and Super Bowl. U if ever head that way, give me a shout.
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    11 OT in BB Today
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    Wow Pop's post #3 was gambling 101 read every word and took a lot of notes some really good stuff. I'm glad I don't have the job of checking for V.D. at the whorehouse on free blow job night now that was a funny quote. It reminds me of the guy that told me he was running so bad at poker he had to jack off the dog to feed the cat!! Looking forward to baseball
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  10. #10  
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    sun feb 17

    morning all, first i'll update cbb, than post the w/l for all of the tracked games from yesterday. than update the schedule for today
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  11. #11  
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    Quote Originally Posted by mason456 View Post
    11 OT in BB Today
    but only 5 of those had o/u numbers
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  12. #12  
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2boocooinnevada View Post
    Wow Pop's post #3 was gambling 101 read every word and took a lot of notes some really good stuff. I'm glad I don't have the job of checking for V.D. at the whorehouse on free blow job night now that was a funny quote. It reminds me of the guy that told me he was running so bad at poker he had to jack off the dog to feed the cat!! Looking forward to baseball
    i should have had someone pull the highlight from the last year thread, much more good gambling stuff as well
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  13. #13  
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    here's what the OS and Vegas is doing this year to keep from being crushed on the O/U

    only post them of a few games and make sure those have enough numbers to generate close action
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lefty Rosenthal View Post
    In that FA/OY list, I think both Kevin Millwood and Brandon Webb have retired. Also, weren't those type of pitchers (FA and/or OY) pretty close to being coin flippers last year?
    but those are from last year, has to be a complete new list as all the free agents either quit (like you said above) or got new contracts so are no longer FA etc
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  15. #15  
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    105 games yesterday and only one crash in the update

    w/l in a few
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    original hm1 and hm2 (this are great fades, esp on sat)

    KP FORM KP NEW FORM KP UNDR FORM Avg Scores Unders Zen Un UNDR 5 W/L OL W/L CL O/U OL O/U CL ROT HOME AWAY OL
    hm2 W W 552 Air Force Colorado State -3.5
    hm1 L L 564 Hofstra Towson -4
    hm2 P P 572 East Carolina Southern Miss -4
    hm1 L L 608 Central Michigan Toledo -1
    hm2 W W 610 Washington State Oregon -3
    hm2 L L 622 Drake Northern Iowa -3
    hm2 L L 660 Idaho Louisiana Tech -4
    hm1 L L 676 Furman Samford -1.5
    hm1 L L 686 Tennessee Martin SE Missouri State -3

    2-6-1
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  17. #17  
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    original vis1 and vis 2 still close to a coin flip at 4-3

    KP FORM KP NEW FORM KP UNDR FORM Avg Scores Unders Zen Un UNDR 5 W/L OL W/L CL O/U OL O/U CL ROT HOME AWAY OL
    VIS2 W W O O 522 La Salle St. Joseph's 5
    VIS1 L L O O 532 NC State Virginia Tech 15
    VIS2 L L 556 Wyoming Fresno State 9
    VIS1 L L 558 West Virginia Texas Tech 14.5
    VIS1 W W 620 UAB Rice 14
    VIS2 L L O O 624 Mississippi Georgia 11
    VIS1 L L 654 Santa Clara Pepperdine 13.5
    VIS2 W W 684 Eastern Kentucky Jacksonville State 9
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  18. #18  
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    new hm1 and hm2 1-1-1

    KP FORM KP NEW FORM KP UNDR FORM Avg Scores Unders Zen Un UNDR 5 W/L OL W/L CL O/U OL O/U CL ROT HOME AWAY OL
    hm2 hm2 W W 552 Air Force Colorado State -3.5
    hm1 hm1 L L 564 Hofstra Towson -4
    hm2 hm2 P P 572 East Carolina Southern Miss -4
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  19. #19  
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    new vis1 1-0 perfect, love it when a plan comes together

    VT
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  20. #20  
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    old vis under 9-15-1 (decent fades on sat)

    KP FORM KP NEW FORM KP UNDR FORM Avg Scores Unders Zen Un UNDR 5 W/L OL W/L CL O/U OL O/U CL ROT HOME AWAY OL Open O/U
    UNDR U U 508 Connecticut Villanova 5 132
    UNDR U U 514 Dayton Xavier 5 130.5
    UNDR O O 516 Marquette Pittsburgh -2 124
    UNDR U U 518 Depaul Rutgers 1 145
    UNDR O O 520 Tennessee Kentucky -1.5 132
    UNDR O O 522 La Salle St. Joseph's 5 131.5
    UNDR O O 532 NC State Virginia Tech 15 154.5
    UNDR U U 534 Indiana Purdue 20 140
    UNDR O O 542 Tulane SMU 5 124.5
    UNDR P U 544 Evansville Creighton -5.5 139
    UNDR U U 548 Fordham Butler -11 139.5
    UNDR U U 560 Arkansas Missouri -1 153
    UNDR O O 566 Tulsa Houston U 4.5 142.5
    UNDR O O 582 Maryland Duke -5.5 140
    UNDR O O 584 Valparaiso Detroit 3 150.5
    UNDR O O 586 Massachusetts Temple 3 147.5
    UNDR O O 594 Ohio Kent State 11 144
    UNDR O O 598 Kansas State Baylor 4.5 130
    UNDR O O 624 Mississippi Georgia 11 130
    UNDR U U 630 Marshall Memphis -10.5 142
    UNDR O O 632 Nebraska Michigan State -10 120.5
    UNDR U U 642 Colorado Arizona State 7.5 131.5
    UNDR U U 664 Washington Oregon State 4.5 147
    UNDR O O 666 Utah State New Mexico State 2 124.5
    UNDR O O 696 UMKC Oakland -8.5 142
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  21. #21  
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    new undr1 4-8-1 (ok fads on sat as well)

    KP FORM KP NEW FORM KP UNDR FORM Avg Scores Unders Zen Un UNDR 5 W/L OL W/L CL O/U OL O/U CL ROT HOME AWAY OL Open O/U
    UNDR1 W W U U 518 Depaul Rutgers 1 145
    UNDR1 W W O O 520 Tennessee Kentucky -1.5 132
    UNDR1 L L O O 532 NC State Virginia Tech 15 154.5
    UNDR1 W W P U 544 Evansville Creighton -5.5 139
    UNDR1 W W U U 548 Fordham Butler -11 139.5
    UNDR1 L L O O 554 Stanford UCLA 4.5 141.5
    UNDR1 W W U U 560 Arkansas Missouri -1 153
    UNDR1 W W O O 566 Tulsa Houston U 4.5 142.5
    UNDR1 L W O O 574 LSU Mississippi State 12.5 133
    UNDR1 L L O O 584 Valparaiso Detroit 3 150.5
    UNDR1 L L O O 586 Massachusetts Temple 3 147.5
    UNDR1 W W U U 664 Washington Oregon State 4.5 147
    UNDR1 L L O O 696 UMKC Oakland -8.5 142
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  22. #22  
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    new undr2 5-9 (ok fads for sat)

    KP FORM KP NEW FORM KP UNDR FORM Avg Scores Unders Zen Un UNDR 5 W/L OL W/L CL O/U OL O/U CL ROT HOME AWAY OL Open O/U
    UNDR2 L L U U 508 Connecticut Villanova 5 132
    UNDR2 W W U U 514 Dayton Xavier 5 130.5
    UNDR2 W W O O 516 Marquette Pittsburgh -2 124
    UNDR2 W W O O 522 La Salle St. Joseph's 5 131.5
    UNDR2 W W U U 534 Indiana Purdue 20 140
    UNDR2 W W O O 542 Tulane SMU 5 124.5
    UNDR2 W W O O 582 Maryland Duke -5.5 140
    UNDR2 L L O O 594 Ohio Kent State 11 144
    UNDR2 W W O O 598 Kansas State Baylor 4.5 130
    UNDR2 L L O O 624 Mississippi Georgia 11 130
    UNDR2 L L U U 630 Marshall Memphis -10.5 142
    UNDR2 W P O O 632 Nebraska Michigan State -10 120.5
    UNDR2 L L U U 642 Colorado Arizona State 7.5 131.5
    UNDR2 W W O O 666 Utah State New Mexico State 2 124.5
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  23. #23  
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    zen under uncovered by a undr5 1-3-1 fad away on sat's

    KP FORM KP NEW FORM KP UNDR FORM Avg Scores Unders Zen Un UNDR 5 W/L OL W/L CL O/U OL O/U CL ROT HOME AWAY OL Open O/U
    zen under W W O O 520 Tennessee Kentucky -1.5 132
    zen under W W P U 544 Evansville Creighton -5.5 139
    zen under W W U U 548 Fordham Butler -11 139.5
    zen under W W O O 598 Kansas State Baylor 4.5 130
    zen under L L O O 696 UMKC Oakland -8.5 142
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  24. #24  
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    last one is zen under covered by UNDR5 1-1-1

    KP FORM KP NEW FORM KP UNDR FORM Avg Scores Unders Zen Un UNDR 5 W/L OL W/L CL O/U OL O/U CL ROT HOME AWAY OL Open O/U
    zen under UNDR 5 W W P U 544 Evansville Creighton -5.5 139
    zen under UNDR 5 W W U U 548 Fordham Butler -11 139.5
    zen under UNDR 5 L L O O 696 UMKC Oakland -8.5 142
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  25. #25  
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    bottom line is just fade the the only UNDR on sat and be done with it
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