[h=1]Bracket Math: UNC, UK on bubble[/h][h=3]Inconsistent Tar Heels, Noel-less Wildcats in danger of missing tourney[/h]
By Joe Lunardi | ESPN Insider
This edition of Bracket Math includes games through Thursday, Feb. 14. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.
Notes on the "new" math:
• It's a bit unusual for the bubble to expand as it has here in mid-February, but that's the case now that a number of presumed "safe" teams -- including Kentucky and North Carolina -- have gone backward. In North Carolina's case, it's because of a shaky résumé. Kentucky, on the other hand, is dealing with the loss of freshman star Nerlens Noel as well as the reality that its entire season comes down to how the selection committee views the Wildcats without Noel in the lineup. Suddenly, I have a vision of these two blue-blood programs going to the First Four in Dayton, Ohio (and perhaps playing each other). That would be quite a spectacle.
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• Elsewhere, the middle of the Pac-12 has become the focal point of the bubble. Cal (last team in) and Arizona State (first team out) are right at the cut line, and Stanford is not far off even after a bad Thursday home loss to USC. All three teams still have return games against one another, so the final three weeks of Pac-12 play will have outsized importance for each.
• Most impactful Saturday afternoon games: Villanova (at Connecticut), Virginia at North Carolina (for both teams), La Salle (versus Saint Joseph's), Kentucky (at Tennessee), UNC Asheville (versus Charleston Southern), Missouri at Arkansas (both), Stanford (versus UCLA), Bryant (at Wagner), Alabama (versus South Carolina), Air Force (versus Colorado State), Southern Miss (at East Carolina), Western Illinois at South Dakota State (both).
• Most impactful Saturday night games: Temple at Massachusetts (both), Duke at Maryland (both), Detroit at Valparaiso (both), St. Mary's (at Loyola Marymount), Princeton at Harvard (both), Charlotte (at Saint Louis), Ole Miss (versus Georgia), Arizona State (at Colorado), UNLV (versus San Diego State), Boise State (at New Mexico).
[h=3]The Bracket[/h]
This is where I believe teams would fall if Selection Sunday were today. Remember, the S-curve flows left-to-right, then right-to-left, then back again as you read down the chart. It gives you a look at which teams are locks, which teams still have work to do, which teams are primed to land automatic bids and which teams are on the right and wrong side of the bubble. (Note: Teams in ALL CAPS are current conference leaders.)
GREEN: Teams with tourney odds of 80 percent or better through games of Feb. 14
YELLOW: Last Four In (would play March 19-20 in Dayton, Ohio)
GOLD: Lowest four automatic bids (would play March 19-20 in Dayton, Ohio)
RED: First Four Out (teams 69-72 on the S-Curve)
PURPLE: Next Four Out (teams 73-76 on the S-Curve)
[h=4]The Full S-Curve[/h]ALL CAPS: conference leader
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[h=3]The Math[/h]
Take our "solid" at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 80 percent or better) and you have 35 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that's another 21 spots. All told, 56 of the 68 spots are accounted for, with only 12 up for grabs among current bubble teams.
[h=3]The bubble (28 teams for 12 spots)[/h]
IN (12, in S-Curve order):
37. Illinois, 38. Kentucky, 39. Ole Miss, 40. Iowa State, 41. Baylor, 42. Saint Louis, 43. North Carolina, 44. La Salle, 45. St. Mary's, 47. Virginia, 48. Indiana State, 50. California
OUT (16, in S-Curve order):
69. Arizona State, 70. St. John's, 71. Temple, 72. Villanova, 73. Stanford, 74. Boise State, 75. Maryland, 76. Brigham Young, 77. Alabama, 78. Southern Miss, 79. Bucknell, 80. Charlotte, 81. Arkansas, 82. Air Force, 83. Massachusetts, 84. Iowa
[h=3]Conference breakdown[/h]• Big East (7)
• Big Ten (7)
• Big 12 (6)
• ACC (5)
• Pac-12 (5)
• Atlantic 10 (4)
• Mountain West (4)
• SEC (4)
• Missouri Valley (3)
• West Coast (2)
By Joe Lunardi | ESPN Insider
This edition of Bracket Math includes games through Thursday, Feb. 14. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.
Notes on the "new" math:
• It's a bit unusual for the bubble to expand as it has here in mid-February, but that's the case now that a number of presumed "safe" teams -- including Kentucky and North Carolina -- have gone backward. In North Carolina's case, it's because of a shaky résumé. Kentucky, on the other hand, is dealing with the loss of freshman star Nerlens Noel as well as the reality that its entire season comes down to how the selection committee views the Wildcats without Noel in the lineup. Suddenly, I have a vision of these two blue-blood programs going to the First Four in Dayton, Ohio (and perhaps playing each other). That would be quite a spectacle.
<offer></offer>
• Elsewhere, the middle of the Pac-12 has become the focal point of the bubble. Cal (last team in) and Arizona State (first team out) are right at the cut line, and Stanford is not far off even after a bad Thursday home loss to USC. All three teams still have return games against one another, so the final three weeks of Pac-12 play will have outsized importance for each.
• Most impactful Saturday afternoon games: Villanova (at Connecticut), Virginia at North Carolina (for both teams), La Salle (versus Saint Joseph's), Kentucky (at Tennessee), UNC Asheville (versus Charleston Southern), Missouri at Arkansas (both), Stanford (versus UCLA), Bryant (at Wagner), Alabama (versus South Carolina), Air Force (versus Colorado State), Southern Miss (at East Carolina), Western Illinois at South Dakota State (both).
• Most impactful Saturday night games: Temple at Massachusetts (both), Duke at Maryland (both), Detroit at Valparaiso (both), St. Mary's (at Loyola Marymount), Princeton at Harvard (both), Charlotte (at Saint Louis), Ole Miss (versus Georgia), Arizona State (at Colorado), UNLV (versus San Diego State), Boise State (at New Mexico).
[h=3]The Bracket[/h]
This is where I believe teams would fall if Selection Sunday were today. Remember, the S-curve flows left-to-right, then right-to-left, then back again as you read down the chart. It gives you a look at which teams are locks, which teams still have work to do, which teams are primed to land automatic bids and which teams are on the right and wrong side of the bubble. (Note: Teams in ALL CAPS are current conference leaders.)
GREEN: Teams with tourney odds of 80 percent or better through games of Feb. 14
YELLOW: Last Four In (would play March 19-20 in Dayton, Ohio)
GOLD: Lowest four automatic bids (would play March 19-20 in Dayton, Ohio)
RED: First Four Out (teams 69-72 on the S-Curve)
PURPLE: Next Four Out (teams 73-76 on the S-Curve)
[h=4]The Full S-Curve[/h]ALL CAPS: conference leader
| 1. INDIANA | 2. Duke | 3. MIAMI (FL) | 4. FLORIDA |
| 8. GONZAGA | 7. Michigan | 6. Michigan State | 5. Arizona |
| 9. SYRACUSE | 10. Louisville | 11. KANSAS | 12. NEW MEXICO |
| 16. Marquette | 15. Kansas State | 14. Georgetown | 13. Ohio State |
| 17. Pittsburgh | 18. Oklahoma State | 19. Butler | 20. Wisconsin |
| 24. Minnesota | 23. Cincinnati | 22. Notre Dame | 21. OREGON |
| 25. Colorado State | 26. San Diego State | 27. Creighton | 28. NC State |
| 32. MEMPHIS | 31. Oklahoma | 30. Missouri | 29. VCU |
| 33. Ucla | 34. Colorado | 35. Unlv | 36. WICHITA STATE |
| 40. Iowa State | 39. Ole Miss | 38. Kentucky | 37. Illinois |
| 41. Baylor | 42. Saint Louis | 43. North Carolina | 44. La Salle |
| 48. Indiana State | 47. Virginia | 46. MIDDLE TENN. | 45. St. Mary's |
| 49. BELMONT | 50. California | 51. AKRON | 52. LA. TECH |
| 56. DAVIDSON | 55. LEHIGH | 54. VALPARAISO | 53. S.F. AUSTIN |
| 57. HARVARD | 58. STONY BROOK | 59. FGCU | 60. LONG BEACH |
| 64. W. ILLINOIS | 63. NIAGARA | 62. NORTHEASTERN | 61. MONTANA |
| 65. UNC ASHEVILLE | 66. BRYANT | 67. SOUTHERN U. | 68. NORFOLK STATE |
| 72. Villanova | 71. Temple | 70. St. John's | 69. Arizona State |
| 73. Stanford | 74. Boise State | 75. Maryland | 76. Brigham Young |
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[h=3]The Math[/h]
Take our "solid" at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 80 percent or better) and you have 35 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that's another 21 spots. All told, 56 of the 68 spots are accounted for, with only 12 up for grabs among current bubble teams.
[h=3]The bubble (28 teams for 12 spots)[/h]
IN (12, in S-Curve order):
37. Illinois, 38. Kentucky, 39. Ole Miss, 40. Iowa State, 41. Baylor, 42. Saint Louis, 43. North Carolina, 44. La Salle, 45. St. Mary's, 47. Virginia, 48. Indiana State, 50. California
OUT (16, in S-Curve order):
69. Arizona State, 70. St. John's, 71. Temple, 72. Villanova, 73. Stanford, 74. Boise State, 75. Maryland, 76. Brigham Young, 77. Alabama, 78. Southern Miss, 79. Bucknell, 80. Charlotte, 81. Arkansas, 82. Air Force, 83. Massachusetts, 84. Iowa
[h=3]Conference breakdown[/h]• Big East (7)
• Big Ten (7)
• Big 12 (6)
• ACC (5)
• Pac-12 (5)
• Atlantic 10 (4)
• Mountain West (4)
• SEC (4)
• Missouri Valley (3)
• West Coast (2)
