Service Plays Tuesday 2/19/13

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GL!

Study group: Tuesday's Top 25 NCB betting notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on all of Tuesday’s ranked college basketball games:

(1) Indiana at (5) Michigan State (-1.5)

A five-game winning streak has Michigan State knocking on the door to sole possession of first place in the Big Ten. Michigan State has not lost since dropping a 75-70 decision in Bloomington, Ind., on Jan. 27 and is currently tied with the Hoosiers atop the conference. The Spartans have held their last four opponents to an average of 57.8 points and sit second in the Big Ten in scoring defense (59.1). The Hoosiers lead the Big Ten in scoring offense (82.9) and have gone for 80 or more points in four of their last five victories. Indiana is 1-8 ATS in the last nine meetings at Michigan State.

(20) Marquette at Seton Hall (+5.5)

Marquette has won three of four following Saturday's impressive 79-69 victory over Pittsburgh that extended its home winning streak to 23 games - the fourth-longest active streak nationally. The Pirates are careening in the other direction, having dropped seven consecutive games and 11 of their last 12 to move within one game of the conference cellar. Marquette has won 10 of 12 meetings overall but Seton Hall captured the last home matchup in March 2011. The Pirates are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Tuesday games.

Duquesne at (15) Butler (-16.5)

Before they take on a difficult stretch run, the Butler Bulldogs get one more very winnable game when they host last-place Duquesne. The Bulldogs will enter a game behind first-place and nationally ranked Virginia Commonwealth in the Atlantic 10 and one-half game back of Saint Louis. The Bulldogs are coming off a 68-63 win at Fordham on Saturday. After scoring less than 70 points in eight straight games, the Dukes erupted for 84 at Temple before suffering a 67-62 loss to Rhode Island Saturday. The Bulldogs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

(24) VCU at Saint Louis (-3.5)

With regular-season games dwindling, the winner of Tuesday's tilt between Virginia Commonwealth and Saint Louis might very well be to determine the Atlantic 10 champion. The Billikens find themselves a half-game behind the Rams, who are on top in their inaugural season in the conference. Both teams have responded to two-game slumps with extended winning streaks (five for Virginia Commonwealth, seven for Saint Louis) and it'll be a battle of offense against defense to see which streak continues. The Rams enter boasting the league's top scoring offense, averaging over 78 points per game, over five points better than the next-best team. But the Billiken defense, the Atlantic 10's best, has allowed just 104 combined points in the past two games. Saint Louis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.

Virginia at (2) Miami-Florida (-8)

Virginia shot 58.5 percent from the field in Saturday’s 93-81 loss at North Carolina. That’s the Cavaliers’ best shooting in a defeat since 2003, when they made 59.2 percent in a 78-77 loss at Clemson. Virginia is also holding its opponents to 54 points per game and is ranked first in the ACC in scoring defense. Miami extended its winning streak to 13 games with a thrilling win at Clemson Sunday and is now one win shy of tying a school record of 14 consecutive victories. The Hurricanes are undefeated in ACC play with a 12-0 mark and 5-0 all-time at home against the Cavaliers. Miami is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games.

(4) Florida at Missouri (+4.5)

Florida shot 59.3 percent from the field and forced 21 turnovers in an 83-52 triumph over Missouri on Jan. 19. Each the Gators’ 11 SEC victories have come by at least 17 points, but Missouri has been almost as dominant at home, going 14-0 at Mizzou Arena with 12 of those wins coming by at least 14 points. Florida is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.

More college hoops powers fated for a February fall?

College basketball bettors have already seen plenty of top programs hit the wall in February. Ranked teams like Ohio State, Arizona and Creighton have suffered numerous losses this month, as the long schedule wears on and the pressure of making the postseason builds.

There are a few more programs whose wheels have wobbled in recent games. Could they be the next big names to flop in February? We take a look at four programs bettors should be wary of down the stretch.

San Diego State Aztecs (18-7 SU, 11-8-1 ATS)

The Aztecs were the class of the Mountain West for most of the season but back-to-back road losses and a tough upcoming calendar could send SDSU into a tailspin at the worst possible time. San Diego State faces a tough Wyoming squad Tuesday, following losses to Colorado State and UNLV.

The Aztecs haven’t been able to get the job done in close contests, going 3-5 SU in games decided by three points or less in the final minute of regulation. San Diego State has a few more nail-bitters on deck, with New Mexico, Air Force and Boise State still to come.

Butler Bulldogs (21-5 SU, 14-9-1 ATS)

Butler had the element of surprise early on in its first stretch of A-10 games since moving over from the Horizon League. But, it looks like teams have more and more tape on Brad Stevens’ squad and the Bulldogs have lost a bit of their luster.

Butler lost SU and ATS to Charlotte last week before stealing a squeaker at Fordham. They’ve failed to cover the spread in three straight games and are 1-1-4 ATS in their past six conference games. The going gets much tougher for Butler down the stretch, with A-10 powers VCU, St. Louis, UMass and Xavier all on deck.

Syracuse Orange (21-4 SU, 13-8 ATS)

Here comes the hate. Cuse fans will jump all over this like Jim Boeheim on Andy Katz, but that defense mechanism is merely masking a worried fan base that watched its team lose straight up as road favorite at Connecticut last week. The Orange are just 3-3 SU and ATS in their last six and run the gauntlet in the final weeks of the regular season.

Adding to those worries is just how good rival Georgetown is playing this month. The two classic foes collide at the Carrier Dome this weekend in a battle for the conference’s top spot. Cuse then plays at Marquette and hosts Louisville in a stretch that should unclog the logjam atop the Big East.

Michigan Wolverines (22-4 SU, 12-11-1 ATS)

The Wolverines' offense seems to be running out of gas as the Big Ten battles pile up. Michigan found its touch in a win over Penn State but not before two poor offensive showings cost it some spots in the standings. Hopefully John Beilein can keep his club at that tempo.

The Wolverines have some tough games to wrap up conference play. Michigan has the week off to prepare for upset-hungry Illinois Sunday and has rematches with Michigan State and Indiana before the end of the calendar. Around those games are potential letdown and lookahead spots at Penn State and Purdue.

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/19/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 507-253 (.667)
ATS: 406-369 (.524)
ATS Vary Units: 1103-959 (.535)
Over/Under: 405-372 (.521)
Over/Under Vary Units: 584-518 (.530)

WASHINGTON 96, Toronto 93
ORLANDO 99, Charlotte 93
BROOKLYN 100, Milwaukee 94
Memphis 92, DETROIT 91
Chicago vs. NEW ORLEANS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DENVER 105, Boston 97
UTAH 106, Golden State 101
San Antonio 110, SACRAMENTO 99
PORTLAND 101, Phoenix 96

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Pittsburgh (-10 1/2) Monday.

Tuesday it’s N.C. State. The deficit is 5 sirignanos.

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

The Georgetown Hoyas are the hottest team in college hoops, winning seven in a row SU and ATS. Their most recent victory - a 62-55 road win over Cincinnati as 4-point underdogs – has Georgetown locked in a three-way tie with Syracuse and Marquette atop the Big East at 9-3 in conference play. The Hoyas already have a win over the Golden Eagles and can put some space between them and the Orange with a victory at Syracuse Saturday.

But before Georgetown invades the Carrier Dome, it hosts Big East bottom-feeder DePaul Wednesday. The Blue Demons, however, aren’t going to roll over. They recently snapped a nine-game losing skid and have covered in three straight outings. DePaul, which is 6-2 ATS on the road, covered at Georgetown last year and is 3-1 ATS in its last four versus the Hoyas.

Letdown spot

We caught the Philadelphia Flyers with their guard down at the start of the NHL season, coming off an intense home opener with the rival Penguins only to fall flat versus the Sabres the next night. History has a tendency to repeat itself, especially in compressed schedules like this year’s lockout-shortened slate which leaves little time for correction.

Philadelphia finds itself in a similar situation, visiting Pittsburgh Wednesday before returning home to host floundering Florida Thursday. The Flyers, who have a frantic schedule this week with three games in four nights, could be low on gas by the time they play the Panthers. That game is the first one back in Wells Fargo Arena after a six-game road trip.

Scheduling spot

The Boston Celtics needed the All-Star break more than any team in the league. Their aging roster is down three players – Rajon Rondo, Jared Sullinger, Leandro Barbosa – and star small forward Paul Pierce is nursing a pinched nerve in his neck. The Celtics went into the four-day layoff on a high note, winning eight of nine games (7-2 ATS) before the break, but face a daunting challenge starting Tuesday.

Boston opens the second half of the schedule on a five-game Western Conference swing, beginning in Denver Tuesday. The Celtics, who are a dismal 8-15 SU and 7-15-1 ATS on the road, then travel to Los Angeles (Lakers), Phoenix, Portland and Utah. In fact, Boston plays at home only twice in the next 11 contests – a span of nearly a month.

Best & Worst NBA ATS Trends at The Break
by Marc Lawrence

With the NBA taking a timeout for the All-Star break, there is no better time than the present to examine the condition of each team in the league at this stage of the season. From the surprise teams to the disappointments, the run to the 2013 playoffs is about to take off.

Here’s a quick look at the very best and the very worst pointspread records to date on every team in games played this season through the All-Star break. In addition, I also present a noteworthy most recent trend on each team. All results are SU (Straight Up), ATS (Against The Spread) or O/U (Over Under in exact sequence), unless stated otherwise.

ATLANTA

Best: 3-0 ATS when dogs of seven or more points.

Worst: 0-8 ATS off an ATS win of 13 or more points.

Trending: Hawks are struggling with good teams off a spread loss, going 0-7 SU/ATS.

BOSTON

Best: 4-0-1 ATS in double no-rest games.

Worst: 0-7 SU/ATS when coming off a loss of 13 or more points.

Trending: Celtics are playing down to the level of their opponents, going 1-7 ATS versus sub .250 opposition.

BROOKLYN

Best: 7-1-1 ATS as favorites off back-to-back wins.

Worst: 0-5 ATS at home versus foes coming off a double-digit win.

Trending: Nets are having trouble in games off one loss-exact, going 2-9 ATS

CHARLOTTE

Best: 3-0 ATS when coming off SU favorite loss.

Worst: 1-9 ATS away from home versus foes coming off SU/ATS loss.

Trending: Bobcats have played under in all 10 games as dogs of 11 or more points.

CHICAGO

Best: 5-1 ATS away in division games.

Worst: 0-11 ATS with no rest off a SU/ATS win.

Trending: Bulls have struggled laying more than eight points, going 0-7 ATS.

CLEVELAND

Best: 5-0 ATS as dogs of more than 10 points.

Worst: 0-5 ATS as favorites versus non-rested opponents.

Trending: Cavs struggle at home off road games, going 4-12 SU/ATS, including 0-5 SU/ATS as favorites.

DALLAS

Best: 5-0 ATS versus conference opponent off a SU dog win.

Worst: 0-4 ATS off back-to-back losses, the last as a favorite.

Trending: Mavs are 17-8 ATS since the return of Dirk Nowitzki to the lineup, including 14-3 ATS the last 17 games.

DENVER

Best: 6-0 ATS at home off back-to-back wins.

Worst: 0-4 ATS with revenge versus non-conference opponents.

Trending: Nuggets have struck gold at home against conference foes, going 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS.

DETROIT

Best: 8-1 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS losses.

Worst: 1-5 ATS at home off a win versus an opponent off a loss.

Trending: Pistons are misfiring as dogs of more than eight points, going 1-6 ATS.

GOLDEN STATE

Best: 4-0 SU/ATS at home versus opponent off double-digit loss.

Worst: 0-6 ATS on the road off back-to-back SU/ATS wins.

Trending: Warriors are cleaning up against foes off SU dog wins, going 4-0 ATS as dogs and 4-0 ATS away.

HOUSTON

Best: 13-1 ATS at home versus opponent coming off a loss.

Worst: 1-10 ATS off a loss versus opponent off SU/ATS win

Trending: After hitting a 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS wall in mid-January, Rockets closed 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS in last 11 games into the break.

INDIANA

Best: 7-0 ATS at home coming off a division game.

Worst: 0-4 ATS away versus greater than .666 opponents.

Trending: Indiana has trouble keeping pace as dogs in games off back-to-back wins, going 1-7 ATS.

LA CLIPPERS

Best: 5-1 ATS off a SU dog win.

Worst: 0-5 ATS as favorites of 13 or more points.

Trending: One is not enough for the Clippers, who are 7-1 SU/ATS in games off one win-exact.

LA LAKERS

Best: 5-1 ATS as favorites in games off a double-digit loss.

Worst: 0-5 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS wins.

Trending: Once great Lakers dog log is howling at 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS when taking points in games off a loss.

MEMPHIS

Best: 5-0-1 ATS off SU dog win.

Worst: 0-3 SU/ATS off ATS loss 20 or more points.

Trending: Sleepy Grizzles are dangerous, going 6-1-1 ATS with no rest.

MIAMI

Best: 5-0 ATS off back-to- back SU/ATS wins versus foe off back-to-back SU/ATS losses.

Worst: 1-7 ATS off division game.

Trending: The defending champs shine at home, going 8-1 SU/ATS as favorites of less than seven points and 7-1 SU/ATS versus greater than .667 opponents.

MILWAUKEE

Best: 4-0 ATS as favorites off a loss of 15 or more points.

Worst: 0-9 ATS versus conference opponent off a win.

Trending: Bucks are gracious hosts, going 1-8-1 ATS versus foes coming off a win.

MINNESOTA

Best: 5-0 ATS versus opponent coming off back-to-back SU/ATS losses

Worst: 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS home versus opponent off a win.

Trending: Wolves waltz in games with O/U total 196 or more, going 3-13 under, including 0-6 under if total 201 or more.

NEW ORLEANS

Best: 5-0 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS losses.

Worst: 0-3 ATS at home versus opponent off SU favorite loss.

Trending: Hornets stirred things up in final 21 games, going 12-9 SU and 15-6 ATS.

NEW YORK

Best: 4-0 ATS as conference dogs.

Worst: 1-5-1 ATS as road favorites versus opponent off SU/ATS loss.

Trending: Knicks raise their level of play depending on opposition, going 6-1 SU/ATS versus .750 or greater foes, including 4-0 ATS at home.

OKLAHOMA CITY

Best: 9-1 ATS off a non-division loss.

Worst: 1-6 ATS versus .333 or less opponent off back-to-back losses.

Trending: Thunder playing up and down to the level of opposition, going 4-1-1 ATS versus greater than .750 foes and 0-6 ATS versus less than .285 opponents.

ORLANDO

Best: 6-1 ATS as double-digits dogs.

Worst: 1-9 ATS as favorites.

Trending: Magic act disappeared after 12-13 start, going 3-24 SU and 9-18 ATS over their last 27 games.

PHILADELPHIA

Best: 4-0 ATS away with three or more days of rest.

Worst: 0-6 ATS with no rest versus opponent off SU/ATS loss.

Trending: Sixers play according to the level of their opposition, going 8-3 SU/ATS versus sub .333 opponents and 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS versus greater than .666 foes.

PHOENIX

Best: 3-0-1 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS wins.

Worst: 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS versus opponents coming off a double-digit loss.

Trending: Suns set against non-conference foes off a SU/ATS loss, going 1-8 ATS, including 0-6 ATS at home.

PORTLAND

Best: 6-1 ATS versus opponents coming off a SU favorite loss.

Worst: 0-6 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS wins.

Trending: Over/under total dictates Blazers success, going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in games in which the total is less than 192, and 2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in games in which the total is 202 or higher.

SACRAMENTO

Best: 4-0 ATS coming off a division game versus an opponent coming off a win.

Worst: 1-7 ATS versus opponent coming off a SU favorite loss.

Trending: Kings get crowned in matchups of both teams playing off SU/ATS losses, going 0-6 ATS at home.

SAN ANTONIO

Best: 5-0 ATS versus opponents coming off a loss of 20 or more points.

Worst: 1-6 ATS versus an opponent coming off a double-digit win.

Trending: Spurs have struggled at both ends of the spectrum, going 1-5-1 ATS versus .250 or less opponents and 1-6 ATS versus greater than .666 opponents.

TORONTO

Best: 8-1 ATS when coming off a divisional game.

Worst: 0-3 ATS at home when coming off a SU favorite loss.

Trending: Raptors run well without rest, going 11-2 ATS, including 4-0 ATS at home.

UTAH

Best: 5-0 ATS as home dogs.

Worst: 1-7-1 ATS away off back-to-back wins.

Trending: Flip sides to Jazz records, going 5-1 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS losses and 0-6 ATS versus foes coming off back-to-back SU/ATS losses.

WASHINGTON

Best: 8-1-1 ATS when coming off a win versus an opponent also coming off a win.

Worst: 1-4 ATS at home versus non-division opponens coming off a double-digit loss.

Trending: Wizards work magic in games against foes coming off an ATS win, going 14-4-1 ATS, including 11-0 ATS the last eleven.

FYI: Teams that have responded exceptionally well in same season revenge affairs this season include the Thunder (5-1 SU/ATS) and the Heat (5-2 SU/ATS, including 4-1 ATS home), while the teams that have struggled mightily in these same payback situations include the Timberwolves (3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS, including 0-7 ATS versus an opponent off a win), the Magic (2-15 SU and 5-12 ATS).

NBA Toughest & Easiest Schedules Out of the Break

Let’s have a look at three NBA teams with generous schedules and three squads dreading their stretch run after the All-Star break:

Teams That Should Finish Strong

Denver Nuggets (33-21 SU, 32-22 ATS, 33-21 O/U)

The Nuggets have been a good bet to this point and there’s no reason to think that will change after the break. Denver has a 22-3 (17-8 ATS) record at home and is one of the best over plays in the Association. The Nuggets will play 16 of their final 28 games at Pepsi Center, where they average 109.2 points per contest. Denver has already played the bulk of its road games and won’t be away from home for more than a two-game stretch at a time for the remainder of the season.

Golden State Warriors (30-22 SU, 27-24-1 ATS, 33-18-1 O/U)

Much like the Nuggets, the Warriors have played a ton of road games early on. Golden State has posted an impressive 16-7 home record (13-10 ATS) and also held its own on the road early on with a 14-15 (14-14-1 ATS) mark. But what bettors really love about the Warriors is their tendency to play over totals. Golden State will be in a perfect position to close out the season strong, as only six of its final 22 games will be played away from Oracle Arena.

San Antonio Spurs (42-12 SU, 30-22-2 ATS, 25-28-1 O/U)

The Spurs limped into the break as Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are dealing with various injuries. The All-Star festivities break up a grueling nine-game road trip for San Antonio, which picks back up in Sacramento on Tuesday. It’s clear sailing for the Spurs after that, with 17 of their final 24 contests to be played at the friendly confines of the AT&T Center. Perhaps no team will benefit more from the comforts of home during the final stretch than the aging Spurs.

Teams That are Dreading the Stretch Run

Boston Celtics (28-24 SU, 21-28-3 ATS, 25-26-1 O/U)

Sure, the Celtics went on a seven-game ATS tear after Rajon Rondo went down with a season-ending ACL injury, but reality should settle in for Boston after the break. The Celtics failed to cover in their final two games before All-Star Weekend and now Paul Pierce is dealing with a pinched nerve in his neck. Boston has only played 23 road games to this point, and will playing a ton of games away from Beantown. The Celtics have been a fade on the road, posting a 7-15-1 ATS record.

Philadelphia 76ers (22-29 SU, 24-27 ATS, 24-25-2 O/U)

NBA schedule-makers were not kind to the Sixers this year. Philadelphia was bombarded with road games to start the campaign and just wrapped up a stretch where it played 12 of 14 games at Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers will once again be banished to the road to close out the season. Philly finishes with a daunting stretch that sees it play 12 of its final 16 games away from the City of Brotherly Love, but that doesn’t mean bettors should shy away from the Sixers, who have been a good under bet (6-14-2 O/U) on the road to date.

Memphis Grizzlies (33-18 SU, 29-21-1 ATS, 21-29-1 O/U)

The team dynamic of the Grizzlies has changed since the departure of Rudy Gay. Bettors were turning a huge profit on defense-happy Memphis prior to the deal, but now the Grizzlies are having trouble stopping opponents from scoring. Memphis is allowing opponents to score 94.7 points in seven games since the deal –roughly five points more than its season average. The usual under-lock Grizzlies have played over the number in six of those seven contests. Memphis has played a league-low 22 road affairs to this point and doesn’t play more than two consecutive home games down the stretch.

DAVE ESSLER

CBB Tuesday Cliff Notes - Huge Games !

And we really do like this card, at least a whole lot better than Monday's. Many of these games have much bigger implications than just this one game. There's Conference seedings at stake, as well as those Top Tier teams that want at least a #2 seed in the Tournament. And yeah, they go by RPI and all that, but there's still the human element and most humans I know have a very short memory, so they will indeed pay a lot more homage to these late-season marquee games. We have a lot of work to do.

Indiana at Michigan State: I suppose people will be lining up to take the Spartans because of what they did to Michigan, which was predictable, and the fact that they lost at Indiana earlier in the season. With that in mind, you probably will pay for an extra possession or so by taking the Spartans. Both teams have had three days rest after thrashing inferior teams, which is somewhat surprising that at least one of them didn't have a closer game, given the look-ahead spots. Both these teams are 11-2 in Conference so this game will go a long way towards determining a LOT of things. I will try to make a case for the Hoosiers, because the one for the Spartans is just obvious. Playing well. Izzo. What I don't like about the Hoosiers is that they are 11th in the Big Ten in turnovers, but, they are second in actually creating them. In games like this (most, actually) turnovers and rebounds are about the only separation and games' end. Indiana does have the size and the experience here, but I am not sure they're going to win on the road simply shooting three's. If the Spartans do have a weakness, it's probably interior defense. With that in mind, I do like the fact that Indiana gets to the line a ton, and that may be the difference. Even on the road. I see that BetOnline opened the Hoosiers as a favorite and obviously everyone jumped on MSU with the points. I'll be interested to see what line(s) actually come out and where they settle. Remember, it doesn't take much money to move a virgin line. I would have taken the +1.5 too, if for no other reason than the fact that if it went to MSU -1.5, I'd take the Hoosiers with the points. I do think this is a last possession game. MSU the home floor and revenge, and Indiana probably better talent.

VCU at St. Louis: And these two teams are tied atop the A-10 as well. What's interesting is that they've played the two worst Conference schedules, too, meaning we really need to look ahead for a minute. St. Louis is AT Butler in three days, and probably a pissed off Bulldog team because the Billikens beat them by 17 on New Years' Eve. I have to lean to St. Louis here, but cautiously with that spot. The reason being that they've only lost once at home (in conference, they did lost to Santa Clara in November) and the fact that the best team VCU has beaten on the road is/was St. Bonaventure. St. Louis clearly has the size and the experience, and will slow the tempo down. VCU typically lives and dies by the three, and on the road that isn't always a good thing. Here we've got a Billiken team that's lone weakness may well be in defending that semi-circle, but St. Louis gets to the line a ton, and I wonder whether VCU has the depth should the get into foul trouble. I will say that since Conference play has started it appears VCU goes inside more, but against St. Louis and their length that might not be a great idea. They are, however, shooting 53% as a team from inside the arc in the A-10. But, remember what I said about the Conference strength of schedule. St. Louis or nothing.

North Carolina at G-Tech: Does anyone that's not betting on this game even care? Perhaps even those on Tobacco Road. Most of those people in Chapel Hill really only care about the March 9th season Finale against Duke. I really wonder if the youth on this team might not think that way, too, especially where they have NC State at home on Saturday. Clearly G-Tech WILL be excited to play this game, if for no other reason than the fact that they got absolutely destroyed by the Tar Heels a month ago. Clearly I'd have to take Tech or nothing here, but the one thing I did notice was that Tech hasn't played a great schedule and the 'Heels have actually played the second toughest in the ACC. And their losses haven't really been bad ones. Tech cannot score (neither could Clemson until they played Miami, so be careful in the ACC, no matter what sport!) but the do have some length and can play some defense. Some serious defense, actually. With that in mind, probably the best bet in this game is the under.

Witchita State at Indiana State: Well, the Shockers certainly stole on out of their ass on Sunday, which will do one of two things. Give them a ton of confidence, or, drain them from energy playing only two days later. I'm sure they're focused, but the do have a BB game at home against Detroit on Saturday, which will probably go a long way towards determining BOTH teams' post season fate(s). The Sycamores actually beat Witchita State on the road earlier this season in a game where they shot over 60% and held the Shockers to 16-59 (not a misprint) from the floor. Clearly Witchita State's gonna be pissed, but on the road, two days after an improbable win, I'm not sure I can go there. Yet. Yes, ISU lost at Bradley and at Missouri State, which almost defy explanation. However, they have not lost at home, which include wins over Creighton and Northern Iowa. Indiana State is a terrible offensive rebounding team, and the Shockers clean up the glass really well, so it appears that they Sycamore's are once again going to have to shoot 60% to win this game. I don't like that Witchita has turned it over so much, and I almost see another game like Sunday's against Illinois State, only in reverse. I think Witchita comes out fast and the scoring is done early here, and that they perhaps tire a bit in the 2H off less rest and an emotional game. ISU clearly, after those losses, will have an extra possession built in here, but this could be one of those games that "value" doesn't matter (to me).

PROFITBETS ( FYI he was -319 units last week)

UEFA Champions League

ARSENAL OV 2.5 15UNITS

MALAGA OV 2 (Not 2.5) 15UNITS



Scottland Premier League:

CELTIC OV 2.5 20UNITS


CELTIC -1 15UNITS


England Championship

CARDIFF CITY ML 15UNITS

NBA:
WIZARDS OV 189 20UNITS

CELTICS +9.5 (Buy pt) 10UNITS





NCAAB:

MARYLAND ML 25UNITS

FLORIDA -4 (Buy pt) 15UNITS

UNC -2.5 (Buy .5) 10UNITS

UTAH STATE +12 10UNITS

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Wizards won four of last five games (3-1 last four HF). Toronto won its last four games (6-1-1 last eight AU).
-- Nets won last two games, after losing six of previous nine (6-4-1 HF with Carlesimo as HC).
-- Grizzlies won last three games (5-2 last seven AF). Detroit won three of its last four games (5-1 last six HU).
-- Hornets won four of last five games (5-9-1 HU).
-- Celtics won eight of their last nine games (6-7-2 AU).
-- Jazz won five of last six home games (6-4 last ten HF).
-- Spurs won 14 of their last 15 games (5-7 last 12 AF).

Cold Teams
-- Orlando lost 13 of its last 14 games (0-8 last eight HF). Bobcats lost eight of last nine games (11-14 AU).
-- Bucks lost six of last eight games (1-5 last six AU).
-- Bulls lost four of last five games (0-3 last three AF).
-- Nuggets lost last three games of road trip, but won last seven home games (5-1 last six HF).
-- Golden State lost its last five games (0-6 last six AU).
-- Portland lost its last five games (1-5 last six HF). Suns lost six of their last seven games (4-7-1 last 12 AU).
-- Kings lost six of their last eight games (6-8 HU).

Totals
-- Eight of last ten Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last nine Charlotte games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Memphis games went over the total; six of last seven Detroit games stayed under.
-- Four of last five New Orleans games stayed under total.
-- 16 of last 19 Denver games went over the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Golden State games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Portland games went over the total.
-- Last four Sacramento games went over the total.

NHL

Hot teams
-- Canadiens won last four games, outscoring foes 12-4. Rangers won four of last five.
-- Maple Leafs won six of their last seven games.
-- Blues won their last three games, scoring 13 goals.
-- Blackhawks won six of their last seven games.

Cold teams
-- Winnipeg lost four of its last five games. Sabres lost three of last four.
-- Lightning lost six of their last seven games.
-- Islanders lost six of their last eight games. Ottawa lost six of last nine.
-- Red Wings lost last three games, outscored 12-7. Nashville lost four of last six.
-- Sharks lost last seven games, scoring three goals in last four games.
-- Canucks lost last two games, both 4-3.
-- Los Angeles lost six of its nine road games. Oilers lost six of last eight overall.

Totals
-- Last six Winnipeg games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Montreal-Ranger games stayed under.
-- Eight of last ten Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Islander games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Nashville games.
-- Eight of last ten San Jose games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Chicago games.
-- Six of last seven LA-Edmonton games stayed under total.

Series records
-- Jets won last three games vs Buffalo: 2-1/4-1/3-1.
-- Rangers lost seven of last ten games against Montreal.
-- Toronto won four in row over Tampa Bay LY, scoring 20 goals.
-- Islanders lost ten of last thirteen games against Ottawa.
-- Nashville won six of last seven vs Detroit; they beat Wings 4-1 in LY's playoffs.
-- Blues beat San Jose four times LY, outscoring them 12-3.
-- Canucks won four of last six games against Chicago.
-- Kings won seven of last nine vs Edmonton, with both losses in OT.

CBB

-- Tennessee won its last four games vs LSU, beating Tigers LY in OT in Baton Rouge; Tigers lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 3-22-23 points. LSU won five of last six games overall, are 3-1 as an SEC road dog, with road losses by 5-9-5-3 points. Tennessee won by 30 over shorthanded Kentucky last game; Vols won last three games, allowing an average of 55 ppg. SEC home favorites of 6+ points are 15-22.
-- Quick turnaround for Wichita squad that stole win at Illinois State two nights ago, after being down 5 with 0:50 left. Shockers (-12) got beat at home 68-55 by Indiana State Jan 29, shooting 27% from floor- they won last three games overall by 29-15-1. Sycamores lost last two games, but are 7-0 at home in Valley, including 76-57 win over Creighton. Home underdogs of 5 or less points are 14-5 vs spread in MVC this year.
-- Indiana (-9.5) shot 59% inside arc, beat Michigan State 75-50 Jan 27, 13th win for home team in last 15 series games. Hoosiers lost last seven visits here, by 12-14-8-28-29-1-15 points, but they're 8-1 in last nine games overall, including win at Ohio State last week. Spartans won last five games since loss at Indiana; they're 6-0 at home in league. Big Dozen favorites are 11-6 in games where spread is 3 or less points.
-- Florida State won last three games vs NC State by 13-10-14 points; they've won last four visits to NC State, but lost three of last four road games, losing by 20-24-25 points- they're 3-2 as ACC road underdogs. Wolfpack is 4-5 in last nine games, with no wins by more than 8 points; they're 2-3 as ACC home favorite, winning game in Raleigh by 13-8-4-8-4 points. ACC home favorites of 8+ points are 13-8 vs spread.

-- Marquette (-9.5) beat Seton Hall 69-62 Jan 16, its 10th win in last 11 series games; Eagles won three of last four visits here, losing 85-72 in its last visit two years ago. Marquette won five of last seven games; they're 2-3 on Big East road, 1-0 as road favorite. Pirates lost last seven games, are 0-4 as home underdogs, losing at home by 15-12-6-11-11 points. Big East home underdogs of 6 or less points are 7-12 against spread.
-- Texas split its first two games with Kabongo eligible, upsetting Iowa State in OT; they beat TCU 60-43 (-12) at home Feb 2, holding Frogs to 32.7% from floor. Longhorns are 0-5 SU on Big X road this year, 2-1 vs spread as favorite. TCU is 1-4 as home dog, with an upset over Kansas, and losses by 9-13-13-26-13 points. Big X home underdogs of 7 or less points are 2-4 against the spread.
-- Northern Iowa (-12) beat Missouri State 48-37 two weeks ago, game Bears led 29-26 with 10:00 left; Panthers are 7-2 in last nine series tilts, winning three of last four visits here, with wins by 9-1-1. State is 12-3 vs spread in Valley games, 5-1 as home dog; they're 5-2 SU at home in league, losing to Creighton by 22, Wichita by 10. MVC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 15-6 against the spread.
-- Saint Louis won/covered last seven games, with all seven wins by 9+ points; Billikens are 3-2 as A-16 home favorite, winning home games by 8-17-29-18 points, with loss to URI. VCU won its last five games and is A-16 underdog for first time; they're 4-1 on A-16 road, with only loss in OT at Richmond, when they led by 7 in last minute, before blowing it. Six of last eight Billiken games went over total. A-16 home favorites of 4 or less points are 17-11 vs spread.
-- Florida (-13) crushed Missouri 83-52 Jan 19, forcing 21 turnovers and shooting 67.5% inside arc; Mizzou is 6-0 at home in SEC games- they were favored in all six. Gators won last three games by 25-17-31 points, since getting upset at Arkansas- they're 5-1 as SEC road favorites. SEC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-6 vs spread. Missouri's last three losses are by 3-2-2 points.

-- Miami pulled out 45-43 win at Clemson Sunday after trailing by 4 in last 1:46; they've won six of last eight games vs Virginia, with last three won by a point or in OT. 'canes lost four of last five visits here, losing by 20-11-1-18 points. Miami is 4-0 as home favorite, winning at home by 7-27-24-22-26 points. ACC home favorites of 8+ points are 13-8 vs spread. Virginia won three of last four games, is 2-4 on ACC road, with losses by 3-15-6-12 points- their last five games went over total.
-- Maryland (-8.5) beat Boston College 64-59 Jan 22, in game that saw both teams shoot less than 60% on foul line; trap game for Terp squad off emotional win over Duke, despite turning ball over 26 times- they've split last four visits here. BC lost 8 of its last 11 games, four of six ACC home games; their last three games (!-2) were decided by total of seven points. ACC home underdogs are 16-5 against spread.
-- North Carolina (-10.5) beat Georgia Tech 79-63 Jan 23, holding Tech to 36% from floor; UNC lost four of last five visits here, with only win by a point five years ago. Home teams won 11 of last 13 series games. Tar Heels lost three of last four road games (won by 12 at BC). Tech is 4-3 in last seven games, with last six decided by 6 or less points. ACC home underdogs are 16-5 against the spread; Tech is 1-1 as home dog.
-- Nevada (+2.5) won 68-61 in Fresno Jan 19, outscoring Bulldogs 30-12 on foul line (Wolf Pack was 30-37, Fresno 12-21); Nevada lost three of five MWC home games, beating Boise by 16, Air Force by 5- they're 1-1 as home favorites. Bulldogs lost seven of last eight games, are 2-3 as dog on MWC road. Four of last five Fresno games stayed under total. MWC home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-4 against the spread.

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/19/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 3069-1042 (.747)
ATS: 1396-1434 (.493)
ATS Vary Units: 4061-4393 (.480)
Over/Under: 385-372 (.509)
Over/Under Vary Units: 407-438 (.482)

America East Conference
STONY BROOK 74, Umbc 51

Atlantic 10 Conference
BUTLER 79, Duquesne 60
SAINT LOUIS 69, Vcu 65

Atlantic Coast Conference
Maryland 69, BOSTON COLLEGE 65
MIAMI (FLA.) 64, Virginia 53
NC STATE 78, Florida State 67
North Carolina 71, GEORGIA TECH 65

Big 12 Conference
Texas 63, TCU 55

Big East Conference
Marquette 69, SETON HALL 61

Big South Conference
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN 77, Presbyterian 63
GARDNER-WEBB 63, Winthrop 53
High Point 81, VMI 75
Liberty 78, LONGWOOD 71
RADFORD 75, Campbell 69
UNC Asheville 68, COASTAL CAROLINA 67

Big Ten Conference
MICHIGAN STATE 69, Indiana 68

Horizon League
Valparaiso 66, LOYOLA (CHICAGO) 60

Missouri Valley Conference
CREIGHTON 75, Southern Illinois 59
Northern Iowa 61, MISSOURI STATE 54
Wichita State 64, INDIANA STATE 62

Mountain West Conference
NEVADA 64, Fresno State 58
SAN DIEGO STATE 61, Wyoming 51

Southeastern Conference
Florida 74, MISSOURI 65
TENNESSEE 67, Lsu 59

Southland Conference
Nicholls State 72, LAMAR 69
Northwestern State 79, TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI 66
ORAL ROBERTS 86, Central Arkansas 68
Southeastern Louisiana 66, McNEESE STATE 63

Non-Conference
BYU 76, Utah State 69
OMAHA 79, Chicago State 73

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

02/19/13 Predictions

Season: 73-56 (.566)

BUFFALO 4, Winnipeg 3
N.Y. RANGERS 3, Montreal 2
OTTAWA 3, N.Y. Islanders 2
TAMPA BAY 4, Toronto 3
ST. LOUIS 3, San Jose 2
NASHVILLE 3, Detroit 2
CHICAGO 3, Vancouver 2
Los Angeles 3, EDMONTON 2