[h=1]Programs closing the talent gap[/h][h=3]Why TCU, Ole Miss and Utah could be on verge of breakthrough seasons[/h]
By Brian Fremeau | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
Generally speaking, recruiting success goes hand in hand with on-the-field success. The Alabama Crimson Tide sit atop the college football world and pull in top-flight recruiting classes year after year. The top four teams in ESPN's 2013 RecruitingNation class rankings combined to win 48 games last season. Seventeen of the top 25 teams ranked according to our five-year drive efficiency ratings are also ranked among the top 25 in our five-year recruiting metric.
Some programs are simply looking to take the next step forward. Three of the five teams we identified this time last year as "closing the talent gap" -- Stanford, Texas A&M and UCLA -- went on to have strong 2012 seasons.
Looking ahead to 2013, the following three teams may not have assembled class after class of elite talent, but each has a recruiting profile that is on the rise. And each is expected to take a step forward on the field this season.
[h=3]TCU Horned Frogs[/h]Program FEI rating: No. 16
Five-year weighted recruiting rank: No. 39
2013 ESPN recruiting class rank: 49 <offer></offer>
As many expected, TCU's first season as a member of the Big 12 was much more of a struggle compared with its dominating run in the Mountain West over the previous three seasons. From 2009 to 2011, the Horned Frogs won three conference titles, posted a record of 36-3, and played in two BCS bowl games, winning the 2011 Rose Bowl over Wisconsin. TCU had an average schedule strength ranked 83rd over those three seasons, but the Big 12 presented a much more difficult challenge in 2012. The Horned Frogs' 4-5 conference record tied for fifth in league play last year, and the Big 12 schedule will be a tough gantlet again this fall.
TCU's recruiting profile isn't on the same plane as conference big shots Texas and Oklahoma, but the Horned Frogs are on the rise. Comparing our five-year program recruiting metric this year against team profiles from three years ago, TCU ranks second only to Stanford in its talent boost in that span. And the returning starters, especially on defense, should be able to lead the way to a few more conference victories in 2013.
Gary Patterson's defense didn't perform at an all-time high last year, but they held their own against some of the most explosive offenses in the nation. TCU ranked 15th nationally in forcing three-and-outs (40.9 percent of opponent drives) and did so against the eighth-toughest set of opponent offenses according to our data.
The Horned Frogs offense is where the most progress needs to be made this fall. TCU couldn't consistently convert scoring opportunities into points, ranking 122nd nationally in points per value drive. TCU was only 1-for-3 on red zone trips in a seven-point loss to Oklahoma last season. A modest improvement in finishing drives this fall could push TCU to an extra conference victory or two.
[h=3]Ole Miss Rebels[/h]Program FEI rating: No. 51
Weighted recruiting rank: No. 17
2013 ESPN recruiting class rank: 5
The Rebels just signed one of the best recruiting classes in the nation, a statement from head coach Hugh Freeze that Ole Miss is stepping up to contend with the best programs in the SEC. Ole Miss does boast top-20 talent according to our program recruiting measure, but the league as a whole dominates the recruiting rankings year in and year out, so Ole Miss is still behind half the league in terms of talent accumulated.
The good news for the Rebels is that they won't face most of those teams this fall. Of the seven SEC teams ranked ahead of Ole Miss according to our program recruiting measure, only Alabama, LSU and Auburn are on the Rebels' 2013 conference schedule.
Ole Miss lost three games by a touchdown or less last season, and the key to getting the conference record above .500 this fall is all about field position. The Rebels ranked 108th in field-position advantage last year, losing the field-position battle nine times overall. In November losses to Vanderbilt and LSU, the value lost on field position exceeded the scoring margin of the game. In other words, Ole Miss outplayed the Tigers and Commodores if field position had been neutralized.
Improved special-teams play would do wonders, as Ole Miss ranked 96th or worse in punting, kickoff coverage, punt returns and kickoff returns last year. Average ranks in those categories could improve Mississippi's season-long scoring margin by as many as 50 points. That kind of improvement won't be enough to take down the giants in the SEC, but it would be enough to claim a spot at the top of the conference's second tier.
[h=3]Utah Utes[/h]Program FEI rating: No. 46
Weighted recruiting rank: No. 35
2013 ESPN recruiting class rank: 48
Like TCU, Utah has found a bit more difficulty with the weekly competition of its new conference than it had in the Mountain West. But also like TCU, Utah's recruiting profile is trending upward, boosted in part by its move to the Pac-12 two years ago. Over the last two seasons in the Pac-12 South Division, the Utes have won only seven of 18 league games. But USC and UCLA are the only other teams in its division that rank higher in terms of total program recruiting over the last five seasons, so the talent is in place to take a step forward this year.
The Utah defense was effective last year, but has room to improve with seven returning starters. Utah allowed only 8 percent of opponent drives to average 10 yards per play or more, 18th-best nationally. It's the offense that needs to step up its game in a big way this year.
Freshman quarterback Travis Wilson was efficient in spots last year, but he'll need to improve consistency after another year of experience. The Utes ranked 100th or worse nationally in most of our offensive drive efficiency measures (three-and-outs, available yards, explosive and methodical drives). Special teams keyed by one of the country's best kickoff-return teams helped keep Utah ahead of most opponents in terms of field position. If Wilson and the rest of the offense can improve by a mere 0.5 points per drive, they'll find themselves in the thick of the Pac-12 South race in 2013.
By Brian Fremeau | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
Generally speaking, recruiting success goes hand in hand with on-the-field success. The Alabama Crimson Tide sit atop the college football world and pull in top-flight recruiting classes year after year. The top four teams in ESPN's 2013 RecruitingNation class rankings combined to win 48 games last season. Seventeen of the top 25 teams ranked according to our five-year drive efficiency ratings are also ranked among the top 25 in our five-year recruiting metric.
Some programs are simply looking to take the next step forward. Three of the five teams we identified this time last year as "closing the talent gap" -- Stanford, Texas A&M and UCLA -- went on to have strong 2012 seasons.
Looking ahead to 2013, the following three teams may not have assembled class after class of elite talent, but each has a recruiting profile that is on the rise. And each is expected to take a step forward on the field this season.
[h=3]TCU Horned Frogs[/h]Program FEI rating: No. 16
Five-year weighted recruiting rank: No. 39
2013 ESPN recruiting class rank: 49 <offer></offer>
As many expected, TCU's first season as a member of the Big 12 was much more of a struggle compared with its dominating run in the Mountain West over the previous three seasons. From 2009 to 2011, the Horned Frogs won three conference titles, posted a record of 36-3, and played in two BCS bowl games, winning the 2011 Rose Bowl over Wisconsin. TCU had an average schedule strength ranked 83rd over those three seasons, but the Big 12 presented a much more difficult challenge in 2012. The Horned Frogs' 4-5 conference record tied for fifth in league play last year, and the Big 12 schedule will be a tough gantlet again this fall.
TCU's recruiting profile isn't on the same plane as conference big shots Texas and Oklahoma, but the Horned Frogs are on the rise. Comparing our five-year program recruiting metric this year against team profiles from three years ago, TCU ranks second only to Stanford in its talent boost in that span. And the returning starters, especially on defense, should be able to lead the way to a few more conference victories in 2013.
Gary Patterson's defense didn't perform at an all-time high last year, but they held their own against some of the most explosive offenses in the nation. TCU ranked 15th nationally in forcing three-and-outs (40.9 percent of opponent drives) and did so against the eighth-toughest set of opponent offenses according to our data.
The Horned Frogs offense is where the most progress needs to be made this fall. TCU couldn't consistently convert scoring opportunities into points, ranking 122nd nationally in points per value drive. TCU was only 1-for-3 on red zone trips in a seven-point loss to Oklahoma last season. A modest improvement in finishing drives this fall could push TCU to an extra conference victory or two.
[h=3]Ole Miss Rebels[/h]Program FEI rating: No. 51
Weighted recruiting rank: No. 17
2013 ESPN recruiting class rank: 5
The Rebels just signed one of the best recruiting classes in the nation, a statement from head coach Hugh Freeze that Ole Miss is stepping up to contend with the best programs in the SEC. Ole Miss does boast top-20 talent according to our program recruiting measure, but the league as a whole dominates the recruiting rankings year in and year out, so Ole Miss is still behind half the league in terms of talent accumulated.
The good news for the Rebels is that they won't face most of those teams this fall. Of the seven SEC teams ranked ahead of Ole Miss according to our program recruiting measure, only Alabama, LSU and Auburn are on the Rebels' 2013 conference schedule.
Ole Miss lost three games by a touchdown or less last season, and the key to getting the conference record above .500 this fall is all about field position. The Rebels ranked 108th in field-position advantage last year, losing the field-position battle nine times overall. In November losses to Vanderbilt and LSU, the value lost on field position exceeded the scoring margin of the game. In other words, Ole Miss outplayed the Tigers and Commodores if field position had been neutralized.
Improved special-teams play would do wonders, as Ole Miss ranked 96th or worse in punting, kickoff coverage, punt returns and kickoff returns last year. Average ranks in those categories could improve Mississippi's season-long scoring margin by as many as 50 points. That kind of improvement won't be enough to take down the giants in the SEC, but it would be enough to claim a spot at the top of the conference's second tier.
[h=3]Utah Utes[/h]Program FEI rating: No. 46
Weighted recruiting rank: No. 35
2013 ESPN recruiting class rank: 48
Like TCU, Utah has found a bit more difficulty with the weekly competition of its new conference than it had in the Mountain West. But also like TCU, Utah's recruiting profile is trending upward, boosted in part by its move to the Pac-12 two years ago. Over the last two seasons in the Pac-12 South Division, the Utes have won only seven of 18 league games. But USC and UCLA are the only other teams in its division that rank higher in terms of total program recruiting over the last five seasons, so the talent is in place to take a step forward this year.
The Utah defense was effective last year, but has room to improve with seven returning starters. Utah allowed only 8 percent of opponent drives to average 10 yards per play or more, 18th-best nationally. It's the offense that needs to step up its game in a big way this year.
Freshman quarterback Travis Wilson was efficient in spots last year, but he'll need to improve consistency after another year of experience. The Utes ranked 100th or worse nationally in most of our offensive drive efficiency measures (three-and-outs, available yards, explosive and methodical drives). Special teams keyed by one of the country's best kickoff-return teams helped keep Utah ahead of most opponents in terms of field position. If Wilson and the rest of the offense can improve by a mere 0.5 points per drive, they'll find themselves in the thick of the Pac-12 South race in 2013.
