Unfortunately, the general public has no clue about the Astros, so I have a feeling a lot of "those" people are going to be on the under, which is an atrocity. Most people "haven't heard" of a lot of their players because they don't know baseball.
There wasn't a single person who broke down their pitching last year more than I did. And as I continually repeated throughout the season in my daily 600-1,200 word articles, their pitching is incredibly underrated. I won't go on my usual ridiculously long spiel about how good Bud Norris and Lucas Harrell are (Which is something most people would be aware of if they actually watched the games), but yeah, two guys I've followed as close as anyone - beat writers included - and they are legitimately talented. Jordan Lyles is an interesting study to me because he can be so up-and-down. In other words, this guy looks like a world-class pitcher in the beginning of games (Splendid first-4-innings ERA, if I remember correctly), before completely unraveling as his start goes on. HOWEVER, that is an issue, I feel, that is very correctable, meaning he's someone that can still put it all together and become a solid mid-rotation pitcher. With him, a lot of it is mental, but now having a full year of experience under his belt, perhaps his sophomore season is when he begins to address that pressing issue.
As for the rest of their staff, it's very serviceable. They signed Erik Bedard, a former ace who showed flashes of it last season with Pittsburgh. Philip Humber is someone I believe can still be a pretty good pitcher, and displayed that in stretches last year. Perhaps above all, and this might be the most surprising, I REALLY like Alex White. He was once a highly-regarded prospect (Much like Humber and Harrell, interestingly, back in their old days as much-touted youngsters), and he really hasn't pitched bad thus far in his time in the big leagues. In fact, pitching in Colorado last year, he looked relatively good, even in that shitty situation (Pitching at Coors; And with a 75-pitch count. UGH, what a horrendous managerial philosophy that was). But yeah, I've always liked Alex White and I still think he can be something significant. Furthermore, what about Brad Peacock? Watched him a couple of times at the tail-end of 2011 starting for the Nationals and he showed potential. Perhaps he's ready enough for the club to bring him up early on, which could enable him to post an attainable-for-him low-4's ERA, which would do wonders for Houston.
So there you go. That's SEVEN starters who all bring something to the table; one with ace-quality stuff if you've seen him pitch at the top of his game (Bud Norris), another who can be a legitimate No. 2 or No. 3 starter and is still developing (Lucas Harrell), and a lot of these other moving parts that are more than capable of carving out their own niche. You can only admit this: Their starting pitching is not bad AT ALL, and a lot of times, that's all you need: quality starting pitching.
Their bullpen is a huge question mark, I'll say that. Even the "big name" they brought in, Jose Veras, is a suspect option at closing because he's never really done it before as a full-timer. That's a huge variable and certainly something that can backfire. But he does have a nice track record working late in games so hopefully that translates.
Offensively, their lineup isn't necessarily good right now, but it's not like it's awful. First, let me say this: Trading away Jed Lowrie hurts them significantly on offense, as he showed the tools, when healthy, of becoming one of those Alex Rodriguez/Brandon Phillips-type offensive players in the middle of the infield. But again, that's when healthy, and throughout his young career, he's had a hard time staying on the field. At least one of the guys they brought in, Chris Carter, can be a monster in the heart of the order, as he has freakish power. Brett Wallace, meanwhile, was finally proving last year that he's an everyday player and could put up an interesting statline, and the same could be said for the always-underrated Justin Maxwell (Who is also a good leader in the clubhouse), not to mention Jason Castro (A former top prospect catcher who was starting to come on) and JD Martinez (Who has the tools to be a complete outfielder). And of course, you have all-star Jose Altuve, who is one of the better second basemen in the game.
So yeah, if they were in another division, this team is probably easily Over 60 Wins. In this division, it'll be tough, but at the very least, they can be competitive. And therefore, that should be enough.
It's an interesting bet.
There wasn't a single person who broke down their pitching last year more than I did. And as I continually repeated throughout the season in my daily 600-1,200 word articles, their pitching is incredibly underrated. I won't go on my usual ridiculously long spiel about how good Bud Norris and Lucas Harrell are (Which is something most people would be aware of if they actually watched the games), but yeah, two guys I've followed as close as anyone - beat writers included - and they are legitimately talented. Jordan Lyles is an interesting study to me because he can be so up-and-down. In other words, this guy looks like a world-class pitcher in the beginning of games (Splendid first-4-innings ERA, if I remember correctly), before completely unraveling as his start goes on. HOWEVER, that is an issue, I feel, that is very correctable, meaning he's someone that can still put it all together and become a solid mid-rotation pitcher. With him, a lot of it is mental, but now having a full year of experience under his belt, perhaps his sophomore season is when he begins to address that pressing issue.
As for the rest of their staff, it's very serviceable. They signed Erik Bedard, a former ace who showed flashes of it last season with Pittsburgh. Philip Humber is someone I believe can still be a pretty good pitcher, and displayed that in stretches last year. Perhaps above all, and this might be the most surprising, I REALLY like Alex White. He was once a highly-regarded prospect (Much like Humber and Harrell, interestingly, back in their old days as much-touted youngsters), and he really hasn't pitched bad thus far in his time in the big leagues. In fact, pitching in Colorado last year, he looked relatively good, even in that shitty situation (Pitching at Coors; And with a 75-pitch count. UGH, what a horrendous managerial philosophy that was). But yeah, I've always liked Alex White and I still think he can be something significant. Furthermore, what about Brad Peacock? Watched him a couple of times at the tail-end of 2011 starting for the Nationals and he showed potential. Perhaps he's ready enough for the club to bring him up early on, which could enable him to post an attainable-for-him low-4's ERA, which would do wonders for Houston.
So there you go. That's SEVEN starters who all bring something to the table; one with ace-quality stuff if you've seen him pitch at the top of his game (Bud Norris), another who can be a legitimate No. 2 or No. 3 starter and is still developing (Lucas Harrell), and a lot of these other moving parts that are more than capable of carving out their own niche. You can only admit this: Their starting pitching is not bad AT ALL, and a lot of times, that's all you need: quality starting pitching.
Their bullpen is a huge question mark, I'll say that. Even the "big name" they brought in, Jose Veras, is a suspect option at closing because he's never really done it before as a full-timer. That's a huge variable and certainly something that can backfire. But he does have a nice track record working late in games so hopefully that translates.
Offensively, their lineup isn't necessarily good right now, but it's not like it's awful. First, let me say this: Trading away Jed Lowrie hurts them significantly on offense, as he showed the tools, when healthy, of becoming one of those Alex Rodriguez/Brandon Phillips-type offensive players in the middle of the infield. But again, that's when healthy, and throughout his young career, he's had a hard time staying on the field. At least one of the guys they brought in, Chris Carter, can be a monster in the heart of the order, as he has freakish power. Brett Wallace, meanwhile, was finally proving last year that he's an everyday player and could put up an interesting statline, and the same could be said for the always-underrated Justin Maxwell (Who is also a good leader in the clubhouse), not to mention Jason Castro (A former top prospect catcher who was starting to come on) and JD Martinez (Who has the tools to be a complete outfielder). And of course, you have all-star Jose Altuve, who is one of the better second basemen in the game.
So yeah, if they were in another division, this team is probably easily Over 60 Wins. In this division, it'll be tough, but at the very least, they can be competitive. And therefore, that should be enough.
It's an interesting bet.
Good observation. At the same time, though, when they were playing near .500 baseball throughout the first couple of months or so, they still had some of their familiar cast (El Caballo, Wandy, etc.), and when those guys started getting shipped off, that's when they began that 8-49 stretch.
I'm definitely leaning over, as I absolutely love their starting pitching (So much quality depth to fall in love with), but their offense might be inconsistent (I'm predicting a big year from Chris Carter, but he'll be very vulnerable to extensive slumps that might rub off onto everyone else; I'm predicting he develops into that type of power hitter that everyone just leans on for run support), and the bullpen is a very big question mark. So yeah, I would suggest the over but certainly not for a huge amount... If you go through with it, I'll be rooting for you. The 2009 Astros Over 73 Wins (They finished with 74, although they were better than their record) is still, to this day, the biggest bet of my life so I'll always have a soft spot for this team.
