Leave it to Dana White to have an event headlined by women, where the favorite is about 12-1. Nice. Anyway, there's 12 fights and its time to go to work. Newcomer Caros Fodor meets veteran Sam Stout, Josh Kosheck returns to face Robbie Lawler, a big heavyweight matchup between Brendan Schaub and Lavar Johnson, Josh Neer face Court McGee, both men hoping to stop 2 fight losing streaks and a "title shot is on the line" when Lyoto Machida fights Dan Henderson. 5 official plays, here we go:
Lyoto Machida -190 vs Dan Henderson +170 - the more i think about this fight, the more confident i become. I see the fight going like this; Machida hesitant to strike, backing up a lot and Henderson just throwing bombs hoping to land one. If it goes that way, I KNOW Henderson will win. Lyoto has some good trips, but I don't think he will apply his top game in this one. In truth I am a big "dragon" fan, but I know that we've already seen his best. I feel that even though Henderson is much older than Machida that Henderson is the fresher fighter in the ring. I keep hearing that Machida will be patient and counter "Hendo" , no way and even if he did I don't think that wins him the fight.
3 units Dan Henderson +170
Lavar Johnson -110 vs Brendan Schaub -110 - think its the end for Schaub as he's coming in off 2 straight KO losses. At 29, its seems like his chin is "gone" maybe due to training or possibly from his football days catching up to him early in his career as he only has 11 fights. Schaub does have power but the one thing that Lavar does have is a chin, losing by exhaustion in his very first fight being his only ko/tko loss on his record. All of Johnson's other losses were by submission, don't see Schaub becoming a wrestler then submission grappler. In closing, "Big" Lavar has 17 wins and 15 of them are by knockout. Schaub being a favorite is crazy, easy take for the limit at this price.
3 units Lavar Johnson -110
Caros Fodor -120 vs Sam Stout +100 - what's going on here? Fodor the favorite? Caros has 2 ko's and a total of just 9 fights. Am I missing something here, Stout, a very tough veteran has faced much better competition and held his own beating the likes of Joe Lauzon, Matt Wiman, and Yves Edwards. Nothing really concerns me in this fight, going with the bigger, stronger, more experienced fighter. Stout not concerned with anything Fodor brings to the table.
2 units Sam Stout +100
Court McGee -190 vs Josh Neer +170 - don't understand this line at all, Court is actually closer to 3-1 at the time of this entry, but i can't put anything over -190 because I become uncomfortable reading my own writing. McGee hasn't looked good since winning the ultimate fighter in 2010. After his come from behind win over Ryan Jensen he suffered a knee injury that may be one of the reasons why he's had these messy fights. I would never question McGee's heart but I think that his heart may be his main weapon because his skills are lacking. Neer is the type of fighter who looks you in the eye and challenges you to take him out or be taken out. Neer just comes forward and he has much more offense than McGee, Neer has 29 finishes in his 33 wins. This is a make or break fight for McGee(he's dropped down to welterweight in hopes of breaking a 2 fight losing streak) and I'm beginning to think the season he won was one of the weakest in TUF history. Also, don't see him reacting well to the pressure that Neer will put on him.
1 unit Josh Neer +170
Josh Koscheck -450 vs Robbie Lawler +350 - just can't lay off Lawler in this one. When I see Lawler fight, i'm always impressed. He doesn't do well defending submissions but in a stand up battle I'd give him a shot against an aging fighter. Thats right, Kos has turned 35 and his body is starting to break down. A back injury kept him sidelined for almost the last year, and looking at his last few fights he's definitely slowing down. I doubt Kos will be shooting for takedowns which gives Robbie(who has 16 ko's in his 19 wins) a great chance to catch Koscheck with some power shots. Lawler given new life as the UFC has picked him up and given him a great opportunity, so much so that he even decided to train and drop down to welterweight for this fight. "Ruthless" motivated in his return to the UFC.
1 unit Robbie Lawler +350
"opinions" on other fights:
Brock Jardine -170 vs Kenny Robertson +150 - like Robertson here, he has the better ground game and he was really performing well in his 2 ufc losses(Pierce and Simpson) Not sure why Jardine the significant favorite, could it be just based on what the fighters look like? I will take Kenny to win the standup and the grappling.
Michael Chiesa -220 vs Anton Kuivanen +190 - see this fight going well for Chiesa, his grappling and top game looks pretty good. Its unusual watching him fight, he's tall and very skinny but he fights real strong. Anton already has a couple of ufc fights under his belt(1-1) and looks pretty good on his feet. I did however see him give up the clinch often in fights and I think he will be controlled by Chiesa in this one.
Ronda Rousey -1200 vs Liz Carmouche +800 - real quick, I will never pick a favorite thats laying -500> just because I don't like the vibe that comes with a fight like that. Someone is "supposed" to win and the other person has "no real shot" to win. Only play I look for is a play on the underdog, but I don't think Liz will win so its a "pass". Just wanted to explain my 2 cents worth that in big moneyline fights like this, the pressure is there and both fighters are aware of the situation, and this dynamic will always linger to make an impact so be careful.
good luck,
-boldtiger
Lyoto Machida -190 vs Dan Henderson +170 - the more i think about this fight, the more confident i become. I see the fight going like this; Machida hesitant to strike, backing up a lot and Henderson just throwing bombs hoping to land one. If it goes that way, I KNOW Henderson will win. Lyoto has some good trips, but I don't think he will apply his top game in this one. In truth I am a big "dragon" fan, but I know that we've already seen his best. I feel that even though Henderson is much older than Machida that Henderson is the fresher fighter in the ring. I keep hearing that Machida will be patient and counter "Hendo" , no way and even if he did I don't think that wins him the fight.
3 units Dan Henderson +170
Lavar Johnson -110 vs Brendan Schaub -110 - think its the end for Schaub as he's coming in off 2 straight KO losses. At 29, its seems like his chin is "gone" maybe due to training or possibly from his football days catching up to him early in his career as he only has 11 fights. Schaub does have power but the one thing that Lavar does have is a chin, losing by exhaustion in his very first fight being his only ko/tko loss on his record. All of Johnson's other losses were by submission, don't see Schaub becoming a wrestler then submission grappler. In closing, "Big" Lavar has 17 wins and 15 of them are by knockout. Schaub being a favorite is crazy, easy take for the limit at this price.
3 units Lavar Johnson -110
Caros Fodor -120 vs Sam Stout +100 - what's going on here? Fodor the favorite? Caros has 2 ko's and a total of just 9 fights. Am I missing something here, Stout, a very tough veteran has faced much better competition and held his own beating the likes of Joe Lauzon, Matt Wiman, and Yves Edwards. Nothing really concerns me in this fight, going with the bigger, stronger, more experienced fighter. Stout not concerned with anything Fodor brings to the table.
2 units Sam Stout +100
Court McGee -190 vs Josh Neer +170 - don't understand this line at all, Court is actually closer to 3-1 at the time of this entry, but i can't put anything over -190 because I become uncomfortable reading my own writing. McGee hasn't looked good since winning the ultimate fighter in 2010. After his come from behind win over Ryan Jensen he suffered a knee injury that may be one of the reasons why he's had these messy fights. I would never question McGee's heart but I think that his heart may be his main weapon because his skills are lacking. Neer is the type of fighter who looks you in the eye and challenges you to take him out or be taken out. Neer just comes forward and he has much more offense than McGee, Neer has 29 finishes in his 33 wins. This is a make or break fight for McGee(he's dropped down to welterweight in hopes of breaking a 2 fight losing streak) and I'm beginning to think the season he won was one of the weakest in TUF history. Also, don't see him reacting well to the pressure that Neer will put on him.
1 unit Josh Neer +170
Josh Koscheck -450 vs Robbie Lawler +350 - just can't lay off Lawler in this one. When I see Lawler fight, i'm always impressed. He doesn't do well defending submissions but in a stand up battle I'd give him a shot against an aging fighter. Thats right, Kos has turned 35 and his body is starting to break down. A back injury kept him sidelined for almost the last year, and looking at his last few fights he's definitely slowing down. I doubt Kos will be shooting for takedowns which gives Robbie(who has 16 ko's in his 19 wins) a great chance to catch Koscheck with some power shots. Lawler given new life as the UFC has picked him up and given him a great opportunity, so much so that he even decided to train and drop down to welterweight for this fight. "Ruthless" motivated in his return to the UFC.
1 unit Robbie Lawler +350
"opinions" on other fights:
Brock Jardine -170 vs Kenny Robertson +150 - like Robertson here, he has the better ground game and he was really performing well in his 2 ufc losses(Pierce and Simpson) Not sure why Jardine the significant favorite, could it be just based on what the fighters look like? I will take Kenny to win the standup and the grappling.
Michael Chiesa -220 vs Anton Kuivanen +190 - see this fight going well for Chiesa, his grappling and top game looks pretty good. Its unusual watching him fight, he's tall and very skinny but he fights real strong. Anton already has a couple of ufc fights under his belt(1-1) and looks pretty good on his feet. I did however see him give up the clinch often in fights and I think he will be controlled by Chiesa in this one.
Ronda Rousey -1200 vs Liz Carmouche +800 - real quick, I will never pick a favorite thats laying -500> just because I don't like the vibe that comes with a fight like that. Someone is "supposed" to win and the other person has "no real shot" to win. Only play I look for is a play on the underdog, but I don't think Liz will win so its a "pass". Just wanted to explain my 2 cents worth that in big moneyline fights like this, the pressure is there and both fighters are aware of the situation, and this dynamic will always linger to make an impact so be careful.
good luck,
-boldtiger
