Dave Essler
CBB Monday Cliff Notes
We got obliterated on our only premium play on Sunday (USC). Not sure which is worse, the aged old argument of whether you'd rather being on the wrong end of the last thirty seconds, or just get crushed. From years of experience, I can assure you it's the former. To be that far off is embarrassing and certainly doesn't put our best foot forward. There are adjustments that need to be made this time of year. More often than not, and it was the case on Saturday and Sunday, a larger percentage of favorites covered the number. That happens in November, and it starts happening again now. I don't have numbers to support that, and there always "any given day", but from experience and history, it does happen. So, we grind on.
Syracuse at Marquette: Having just said what I said, my typical reaction to this game would be to find a way to back Marquette and/or the home underdog. Both teams need to win to assure themselves of staying in the top four in the Conference and hence a bye in the Tournament, and Marquette has yet to lose at home this season. They come in off a fairly predictable loss at Villanova, knowing that 'Nova had been playing pretty well and Marquette could we be thinking more about THIS game. The 'Cuse had no excuse in looking ahead and losing at home to G-Town. They turned the ball over 16 times, only had eight assists, and shot .200 from behind the arc. They're lucky it wasn't worse. Marquette loves to pound the ball inside and get to the FT line, and they do it well. The problem is that Syracuse is a far better defensive team than offensive, and they've got a significant length advantage, hence they are the fifth best offensive rebounding team in the nation. However, they aren't a great defensive rebounding team, and Marquette is indeed a very good OFFENSIVE rebounding team, and therein lies what this game will come down to, IMO. That and the big advantage Syracuse has in both not turning the ball over (as they did against G-Town) and in creating them. I'd be quite tempted to take the under here, as this should be a methodical defensive game, but I can at the same time see a close game with some late free throws. Tough one throw down one right now, and two ways to look at it. How often can you bet on Syracuse without laying points (twice this season) or how often can you get Marquette at home just needing to win (twice this year and they won both v/Wisconsin and Pittsburgh). I've thought all along Pittsburgh was a bit over rated. I guess if I had to bet this game, I'd find a way to follow the money, if I could find it, as late as I could. It's a PK for a reason. Marquette's slightly "off" offensive numbers may well be a result of facing opponents with the #1 rated defensive efficiency, too. I suspect most "sharp" people will be on the home team, but I have my reservations at this point. Statistically, Syracuse should win the game. This time of year with this much at stake (seeding) the better team does not always win.
Kansas at Iowa State: Welp, people will be tripping over themselves to take ISU here, especially with the overtime loss earlier this season at Kansas, and the fact that they are undefeated at home this year. Couple that with the fact that most people will remember that Kansas lost to TCU outright. Losing ATS in that game was actually predictable since it was sandwiched between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (two losses). I wonder if that overtime win over Oklahoma State on the road has put these guys heads back on straight. Last year these teams split their games, each winning on their home floor. Both teams have a ton of experience, and Kansas has the height. But, against a shooting team like Iowa, that may only be a factor if Iowa cannot grab the defensive rebounds, which they've actually been pretty good at. Perhaps the biggest advantage Iowa has here is depth. Kansas just isn't that deep off the bench, and Iowa is going to push the pace. That is a given. Neither team turns it over much, and neither team creates a ton, either, which would make me think this is one game that may well go over the number, although 144 is a big number. On the flip side, Kansas hasn't had a road game come anywhere near this number except for their win at Ohio State way back when. Conversely, the last nine Iowa State games have gone over this number. Hard to think, after rethinking, that another "over" is that easy, and that Kansas won't mitigate SOME of ISU's shooting and have just enough deliberate possessions to keep it under given that is that Iowa State simply does not go to the free throw line, and that could be costly if their not hitting their jump shots. This is surely another one of those games that the most talented team (with the better stats) may not win. Clearly the biggest home game for ISU this season, if not for several seasons, and just like Marquette, you got to wonder how much of this game will be won by emotion and how much be sheer talent. Kansas is tied for the Big 12 lead with K-State, who they've beaten twice. After this game the Jayhawks have to "gimme" games against WVU (sorry Dub) and T-Tech at home before finishing up at Baylor, in a game that may not mean much, other than to Kansas' designs on a high seed. Given ISU's relatively low RPI their really playing for revenge and a top four seed, which is obviously a lot, but a loss here would hurt Kansas far more than ISU going forward. One other point of interest is although Kansas has had a relatively easy (if there is such a thing) conference schedule, Iowa State has played, to date, the easiest Conference schedule. So, not unlike the Syracuse game, we have the "trendy" Iowa State team at home against the more "talented" Kansas team. With that in mind, I will have to work harder to find the winner(s) here.
Villanova at Seton Hall: Well, Villanova has all of a sudden become the trendy team to take, and is more than a one possession road favorite. Does Seton Hall suck that bad? I don't think so. However, they only other time in conference play this season they were a road favorite was at DePaul, who they promptly destroyed. Less than a week ago Seton Hall was only a five point underdog at home to Marquette, a game they lost by nearly twenty. A couple of weeks ago they were +5.5 at home to Cincinnati, and lost by six. So, just to put things in perspective, that would thereby put Villanova in the same class as Marquette, and as fate would have it Villanova just beat the Golden Eagles. See how this all starts to make sense after a while! A month ago I would have taken Seton Hall without even thinking about it, but please refer back to paragraph one and this weekend, when I said that good teams start winning and covering this time of year. I know Villanova beat UConn on the road (they've won at DePaul and South Florida as well) but that UConn win was right after the Huskies had beaten Syracuse, and again, predictable. The value here could also like in the total. Villanova scores 27% of their points from the line, which is bar none the highest number in the country. Seton looks at this game as perhaps one of their last chances to actually win a game. Both teams have serious turnover issues at times. Villanova is good, and playing well, but they simply aren't as talented (and are much younger) than some of the teams they're mentioned with, and the one thing they do not do is defend the perimeter. So, I have to think Seton may be jacked up enough to run with Villanova and this one goes over. They very early money at Pinnacle pushed this to -4 while it still sits at -3.5 most other places. Remember it doesn't take much money to move a line in the very early stages, and with CRIS and Greek still sitting at +3.5, that would, at least this early, make me lean Seton Hall. Obviously that could change in a nano-second, but we have to start, and end, somewhere. Still think this one may well inch over 130.
So, there is the full (almost) slate of Monday games. And Sunday, of the ten games either finished or well underway that involve upper echelon conferences, every single favorite has covered and/or is at the moment. See paragraph one, and how I remember this is that last March that trend did the same thing and I was way behind it. I was also trying to get ready for baseball and spread entirely too thin. Not doing that again, as it is the dictionary definition of insanity. We learn from our mistakes, and do not need six weeks to get ready for baseball. If we hadn't had three straight winning seasons, I'd worry about it. For now, I am only concerned with finding all our clients and anyone else that has the desire to read, more winners than losers.
