Lets get right to it, 11 fights and an intriguing main event between Brian Stann and Wanderlei Silva. Diego Sanchez returns from shoulder surgery as he goes back to lightweight and takes on Takanori Gomi who comes in with a modest 2 fight win streak. Hector Lombard who has a record of 32-3 goes back to Japan where he is just 1-2, takes on tough contender Yushin Okami. Also in a welterweigtht bout, Dong Hyun Kim takes on Siyar Bahadurzada. So this is what I have, 4 official plays:
Diego Sanchez -270 vs Takanori Gomi +230 – a lot of questions surrounding Sanchez for this fight. Coming off shoulder surgery, cutting back down to lightweight, and at 31 how much wear will he show after a whole year off. Since his loss to BJ Penn at the end of 2009, Diego has gone the distance in all 4 of his welterweight fights. Diego sets a strong pace and can outwork most but his hand speed has slowed and he really hasn’t evolved his offense over the years(sanchez is pretty much a boxer with some wrestling). Gomi looked like he was done after he was destroyed by Nate Diaz, but showed better efforts in his last 2 fights(wins) I think Gomi has the perfect matchup here, I believe he can counter Diego’s boxing and stuff whatever takedowns that Sanchez throws at him. This fight is probably going to a decision and Gomi can win the rounds. Diego Sanchez was overweight 2 lbs and will forfeit 20% of his purse.
3 units Takanori Gomi +230
Brian Stann -240 vs Wanderlei Silva +200 – seems comfortable to “go against” the aging Silva but more importantly who is the play “on”? Looking deeper into Stann, he’s beaten Alessio Sakara, Jorge Santiago, Chris Leben, Mike Massenzio and lost to Sonnen and Bisping. Seems to me, he’s a mid-tier guy and I would argue that at 32 years of age, that I don’t see him getting better. As far as Wand goes, he’s been a top level fighter for years, but now I can even admit that he probably shouldn’t be fighting much longer. But despite his 3-5 ufc record, he has beaten Bisping and Cung Le which are mid to top level fighters. So he’s capable, and with a homecoming of sorts to Japan, I look for Silva to be good enough to take Stann out. I become more comfortable the more this line goes up, getting great odds in whats really a pick ‘em fight.
2 units Wanderlei Silva +200
Hector Lombard -220 vs Yushin Okami +190 – majority not even bothering to break this fight down, its Lombard by KO right? Now I understand why Hector brings this aura of destruction but try to think about who he was beating. Lombard’s win over Palhares doesn’t hold much weight for me as Palhares seemed like he didn’t want to be in there and had just been ko’d in his previous bout by Alan Belcher. Okami is confident he can stay upright and clinch and hold, drag Hector down a few times and win a decision. Don’t discount the size and strength of Okami, also look at the resume of Lombard, name his best win? Shlemenko back in 2010? I believe Lombards best is behind him at age 35.
2 units Yushin Okami +190
Dong Hyun Kim -280 vs Siyar Bahadurzada +240 – not really understanding this line, i’m guessing that most think Kim will control Siyar for most of 15 minutes? Well, Siyar has good scrambles and has that unique accurate punching skill that will be trouble for Kim. I will wager the fight stays standing long enough to give Bahadurzada a chance to land something good or just outpoint Kim. Remember, Siyar finished Paulo Thiago in the 1st minute where as Kim had to grind out a decision against Thiago. Kim’s biggest wins over Nate Diaz and TJ Grant where based on his size(both Diaz and Grant are now lightweights) and Siyar is 4-0 with 4 ko/tko’s since moving down to welterweight in late 2010.
1 unit Siyar Bahadurzada +240
“opinions” on other fights;
Takeya Mizugaki -190 vs Bryan Caraway +170 – like what I see from Caraway as he dropped down to bantamweight and finished Mitch Gagnon in his last fight. Mizugaki has been unable to find any consistency alternating wins and losses for the last 3 years. Also, Mizugaki almost always going to a decision has no business being nearly 2-1 here. Caraway can hold his own in the standup and is way ahead of Takeya in the grappling game. Caraway.
Mizuto Hirota -110 vs Rani Yahya -110 – looking to the bigger Hirota to impose his will and get the edge in striking. If the fights hits the ground, I think Hirota can get up and keep Yahya from submitting him. Yahya is tough and he has skills but going with Hirota to be physical and control the fight from start to finish.
Stefan Struve -190 vs Mark Hunt +170 – Hunt’s power is a concern but from his height he’s going to have to land an upward punch to hurt Struve. Don’t see that happening. Struve has more ways to win and his winning streak is more impressive than Hunts. This line is about right at 2-1, its almost a play but Struve has been victim to one-punch losses and that reality is present in this fight. Still, picking Struve as Hunt is nearing the end of a career at 38 years.
hope the "dogs" will be live in Japan,
-boldtiger
Diego Sanchez -270 vs Takanori Gomi +230 – a lot of questions surrounding Sanchez for this fight. Coming off shoulder surgery, cutting back down to lightweight, and at 31 how much wear will he show after a whole year off. Since his loss to BJ Penn at the end of 2009, Diego has gone the distance in all 4 of his welterweight fights. Diego sets a strong pace and can outwork most but his hand speed has slowed and he really hasn’t evolved his offense over the years(sanchez is pretty much a boxer with some wrestling). Gomi looked like he was done after he was destroyed by Nate Diaz, but showed better efforts in his last 2 fights(wins) I think Gomi has the perfect matchup here, I believe he can counter Diego’s boxing and stuff whatever takedowns that Sanchez throws at him. This fight is probably going to a decision and Gomi can win the rounds. Diego Sanchez was overweight 2 lbs and will forfeit 20% of his purse.
3 units Takanori Gomi +230
Brian Stann -240 vs Wanderlei Silva +200 – seems comfortable to “go against” the aging Silva but more importantly who is the play “on”? Looking deeper into Stann, he’s beaten Alessio Sakara, Jorge Santiago, Chris Leben, Mike Massenzio and lost to Sonnen and Bisping. Seems to me, he’s a mid-tier guy and I would argue that at 32 years of age, that I don’t see him getting better. As far as Wand goes, he’s been a top level fighter for years, but now I can even admit that he probably shouldn’t be fighting much longer. But despite his 3-5 ufc record, he has beaten Bisping and Cung Le which are mid to top level fighters. So he’s capable, and with a homecoming of sorts to Japan, I look for Silva to be good enough to take Stann out. I become more comfortable the more this line goes up, getting great odds in whats really a pick ‘em fight.
2 units Wanderlei Silva +200
Hector Lombard -220 vs Yushin Okami +190 – majority not even bothering to break this fight down, its Lombard by KO right? Now I understand why Hector brings this aura of destruction but try to think about who he was beating. Lombard’s win over Palhares doesn’t hold much weight for me as Palhares seemed like he didn’t want to be in there and had just been ko’d in his previous bout by Alan Belcher. Okami is confident he can stay upright and clinch and hold, drag Hector down a few times and win a decision. Don’t discount the size and strength of Okami, also look at the resume of Lombard, name his best win? Shlemenko back in 2010? I believe Lombards best is behind him at age 35.
2 units Yushin Okami +190
Dong Hyun Kim -280 vs Siyar Bahadurzada +240 – not really understanding this line, i’m guessing that most think Kim will control Siyar for most of 15 minutes? Well, Siyar has good scrambles and has that unique accurate punching skill that will be trouble for Kim. I will wager the fight stays standing long enough to give Bahadurzada a chance to land something good or just outpoint Kim. Remember, Siyar finished Paulo Thiago in the 1st minute where as Kim had to grind out a decision against Thiago. Kim’s biggest wins over Nate Diaz and TJ Grant where based on his size(both Diaz and Grant are now lightweights) and Siyar is 4-0 with 4 ko/tko’s since moving down to welterweight in late 2010.
1 unit Siyar Bahadurzada +240
“opinions” on other fights;
Takeya Mizugaki -190 vs Bryan Caraway +170 – like what I see from Caraway as he dropped down to bantamweight and finished Mitch Gagnon in his last fight. Mizugaki has been unable to find any consistency alternating wins and losses for the last 3 years. Also, Mizugaki almost always going to a decision has no business being nearly 2-1 here. Caraway can hold his own in the standup and is way ahead of Takeya in the grappling game. Caraway.
Mizuto Hirota -110 vs Rani Yahya -110 – looking to the bigger Hirota to impose his will and get the edge in striking. If the fights hits the ground, I think Hirota can get up and keep Yahya from submitting him. Yahya is tough and he has skills but going with Hirota to be physical and control the fight from start to finish.
Stefan Struve -190 vs Mark Hunt +170 – Hunt’s power is a concern but from his height he’s going to have to land an upward punch to hurt Struve. Don’t see that happening. Struve has more ways to win and his winning streak is more impressive than Hunts. This line is about right at 2-1, its almost a play but Struve has been victim to one-punch losses and that reality is present in this fight. Still, picking Struve as Hunt is nearing the end of a career at 38 years.
hope the "dogs" will be live in Japan,
-boldtiger
