[h=1]Potential impact from aging stars[/h][h=3]Projecting which aging stars can still make an impact in 2013[/h]
By Zachary Levine | Baseball Prospectus
ESPN INSIDER
What if you had been asked in 2003 -- following the greatest season since 1950 for aging hitters -- which position players in their prime would be the best bets to go into 2013 still going strong?
You probably would have predicted Derek Jeter, but Nomar Garciaparra and Miguel Tejada would have been in the same sentence. Ichiro Suzuki would have come to mind, but so would Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez.
No matter who you picked, you would have been mostly wrong, and through no fault of your own. It's just the worst time in decades for older hitters.
<offer>In 2002, hitters in their age-37 seasons and up combined to produce 39.7 wins above replacement player, and that figure stayed above 30 wins as recently as 2007. Since then, it's cratered, and the 2012 figure of 3.5 total WARP for all age-37-and-up position players was the lowest since 1984.
The natural inclination would be to say drug testing, but it's come with a whole change in the offensive environment, with speed increasingly emphasized and DH-only types de-emphasized.
Things weren't much better for the old pitchers, who had a very similar peak with composite WARPs in the 30s from 2003-2005 but careened to a 12-year low of 5.3 in 2011 before a recovery to 13.3 in 2012. In the aggregate, 2011 and 2012 were the worst years for old players in almost three decades.
With Chipper Jones calling it a career, few elder statesmen of the game will make a major impact in 2013. Using the PECOTA projection system, let's look at the top hitters and pitchers for 2013 from the 38-and-older crowd.
[h=3]Position players[/h]
Ichiro Suzuki, RF, New York Yankees
Opening Day age: 39
Projected stats: .289/.325/.378, 7 HR, 1.6 WARP
Is it weird to think the seven home runs would be a little disappointing after he hit five in 240 PAs after the trade, taking advantage of the short right field at Yankee Stadium? Either way, the power is just a bonus. Ichiro is still the most valuable old guy position player mostly because he doesn't run like an old guy yet.
Ichiro is projected to be worth 3.2 baserunning runs. The 16 other players who are entering their age-38-or-older seasons project to a combined -1.1 baserunning runs.
Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees
Opening Day age: 38
Projected stats: .279/.336/.370, 8 HR, 1.2 WARP
Unlike Ichiro, Jeter's value is all in the bat. He's a negative baserunner and a very negative fielder, and he got no help in either area from the ankle injury. But the bat is good, and most importantly for a low-power guy, the BABIP has stayed consistently good (.347 in 2012, .354 career).
And with an old guy with a bat, you get milestone chases.
Jeter led the major leagues with 216 hits last year, giving him a second American League crown 14 years removed from his first and raising his career total to 3,304, which is 403 more than the closest active player, Alex Rodriguez. Assuming good health, Jeter will enter the all-time top 10, saying goodbye to Eddie Collins in April and Paul Molitor for ninth within a week after that.
Carl Yastrzemski, Honus Wagner and Cap Anson should be gone in rapid succession late in the season, and the only question is whether Jeter gets the 211 to push Tris Speaker from the top five this year.
Jim Thome, DH, free agent
Opening Day age: 42
Projected stats: .237/.346/.459, 12 HR, 1.1 WARP
This is all theoretical because Big Jim doesn't have a place to mash his taters, but sure enough, his remaining power when deployed correctly could make him almost as valuable as Jeter.
The funny part is how this position player list could have all been Yankees. When the Bombers wanted someone with no other skills to just stand on the left side and bomb, they went with Travis Hafner, projected for just 0.8 WARP in 339 plate appearances.
[h=3]Top pitchers[/h]
Hiroki Kuroda, RHP, New York Yankees
Opening Day age: 38
Projected stats: 4.09 ERA in 195 1/3 IP, 2.1 WARP
He has been fantastically consistent even with the league switch in his five seasons in the big leagues, with hits per nine innings between 8.3 and 8.9 every season, BB/9 between 1.8 and 2.2 and K/9 between 6.7 and 7.3 after 5.7 in his debut. The ballpark switch makes this more impressive, and 2012 was his most valuable season.
R.A. Dickey, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Opening Day age: 38
Projected stats: 4.41 ERA in 224 IP, 1.5 WARP
PECOTA's souring on Dickey really takes root in the strikeout rate, where the National League leader in raw strikeouts is projected to drop from 8.9 K/9 in 2012 to 6.3 K/9, which is his career rate. No, the success was not out of nowhere in 2012, but the strikeout rate was.
Anyway, he still has a good shot at higher value, which is nothing new for aging knuckleballers. Phil Niekro averaged 7 WARP in his age-38 and 39 seasons, and either of those seasons would have easily led all pitchers last year. It would be new for the Blue Jays if Dickey is successful, as they've never had a 2-plus WARP pitcher over the age of 37 in their franchise history and just two who were exactly 37, Jack Morris in 1992 and David Wells in 2000.
Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Opening Day age: 40 and 43
Projected stats: Pettitte: 4.18 ERA in 138 IP; Rivera: 2.48 ERA in 53 1/3 IP. Both 1.5 WARP
OK, you might have guessed these guys would hold up pretty well.
As you can see, this is a pretty Yankees-centric group, but an aging roster hasn't stopped them before.
</offer>
By Zachary Levine | Baseball Prospectus
ESPN INSIDER
What if you had been asked in 2003 -- following the greatest season since 1950 for aging hitters -- which position players in their prime would be the best bets to go into 2013 still going strong?
You probably would have predicted Derek Jeter, but Nomar Garciaparra and Miguel Tejada would have been in the same sentence. Ichiro Suzuki would have come to mind, but so would Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez.
No matter who you picked, you would have been mostly wrong, and through no fault of your own. It's just the worst time in decades for older hitters.
<offer>In 2002, hitters in their age-37 seasons and up combined to produce 39.7 wins above replacement player, and that figure stayed above 30 wins as recently as 2007. Since then, it's cratered, and the 2012 figure of 3.5 total WARP for all age-37-and-up position players was the lowest since 1984.
The natural inclination would be to say drug testing, but it's come with a whole change in the offensive environment, with speed increasingly emphasized and DH-only types de-emphasized.
Things weren't much better for the old pitchers, who had a very similar peak with composite WARPs in the 30s from 2003-2005 but careened to a 12-year low of 5.3 in 2011 before a recovery to 13.3 in 2012. In the aggregate, 2011 and 2012 were the worst years for old players in almost three decades.
With Chipper Jones calling it a career, few elder statesmen of the game will make a major impact in 2013. Using the PECOTA projection system, let's look at the top hitters and pitchers for 2013 from the 38-and-older crowd.
[h=3]Position players[/h]
Ichiro Suzuki, RF, New York Yankees
Opening Day age: 39
Projected stats: .289/.325/.378, 7 HR, 1.6 WARP
Is it weird to think the seven home runs would be a little disappointing after he hit five in 240 PAs after the trade, taking advantage of the short right field at Yankee Stadium? Either way, the power is just a bonus. Ichiro is still the most valuable old guy position player mostly because he doesn't run like an old guy yet.
Ichiro is projected to be worth 3.2 baserunning runs. The 16 other players who are entering their age-38-or-older seasons project to a combined -1.1 baserunning runs.
Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees
Opening Day age: 38
Projected stats: .279/.336/.370, 8 HR, 1.2 WARP
Unlike Ichiro, Jeter's value is all in the bat. He's a negative baserunner and a very negative fielder, and he got no help in either area from the ankle injury. But the bat is good, and most importantly for a low-power guy, the BABIP has stayed consistently good (.347 in 2012, .354 career).
And with an old guy with a bat, you get milestone chases.
Jeter led the major leagues with 216 hits last year, giving him a second American League crown 14 years removed from his first and raising his career total to 3,304, which is 403 more than the closest active player, Alex Rodriguez. Assuming good health, Jeter will enter the all-time top 10, saying goodbye to Eddie Collins in April and Paul Molitor for ninth within a week after that.
Carl Yastrzemski, Honus Wagner and Cap Anson should be gone in rapid succession late in the season, and the only question is whether Jeter gets the 211 to push Tris Speaker from the top five this year.
Jim Thome, DH, free agent
Opening Day age: 42
Projected stats: .237/.346/.459, 12 HR, 1.1 WARP
This is all theoretical because Big Jim doesn't have a place to mash his taters, but sure enough, his remaining power when deployed correctly could make him almost as valuable as Jeter.
The funny part is how this position player list could have all been Yankees. When the Bombers wanted someone with no other skills to just stand on the left side and bomb, they went with Travis Hafner, projected for just 0.8 WARP in 339 plate appearances.
[h=3]Top pitchers[/h]
Hiroki Kuroda, RHP, New York Yankees
Opening Day age: 38
Projected stats: 4.09 ERA in 195 1/3 IP, 2.1 WARP
He has been fantastically consistent even with the league switch in his five seasons in the big leagues, with hits per nine innings between 8.3 and 8.9 every season, BB/9 between 1.8 and 2.2 and K/9 between 6.7 and 7.3 after 5.7 in his debut. The ballpark switch makes this more impressive, and 2012 was his most valuable season.
R.A. Dickey, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Opening Day age: 38
Projected stats: 4.41 ERA in 224 IP, 1.5 WARP
PECOTA's souring on Dickey really takes root in the strikeout rate, where the National League leader in raw strikeouts is projected to drop from 8.9 K/9 in 2012 to 6.3 K/9, which is his career rate. No, the success was not out of nowhere in 2012, but the strikeout rate was.
Anyway, he still has a good shot at higher value, which is nothing new for aging knuckleballers. Phil Niekro averaged 7 WARP in his age-38 and 39 seasons, and either of those seasons would have easily led all pitchers last year. It would be new for the Blue Jays if Dickey is successful, as they've never had a 2-plus WARP pitcher over the age of 37 in their franchise history and just two who were exactly 37, Jack Morris in 1992 and David Wells in 2000.
Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Opening Day age: 40 and 43
Projected stats: Pettitte: 4.18 ERA in 138 IP; Rivera: 2.48 ERA in 53 1/3 IP. Both 1.5 WARP
OK, you might have guessed these guys would hold up pretty well.
As you can see, this is a pretty Yankees-centric group, but an aging roster hasn't stopped them before.
</offer>
