[h=1]Betting 'Big Monday' games[/h][h=3]Why Bearcats and Longhorns are good bets in ESPN's 'Big Monday' games[/h]
By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider
With football season over, college basketball has taken the spotlight for gamblers. That means it's time for your weekly chaser columns to turn to college basketball, which has games every night across the country, so there are plenty of opportunities to try to beat the lines.
Every Monday, we'll take a look at the two games airing on ESPN from a gambling perspective, with a pick on the game from Ted Sevransky here on Insider.
After a thrilling win at Syracuse on Saturday, Louisville returns home to face Cincinnati. The Cardinals have lost only one game at home in 2013, and that was to Syracuse.
Early in the season, Louisville was the No. 1 ranked team in the nation. A midseason three-game losing streak raised questions, but the Cardinals have responded well. A normal staple of all Rick Pitino teams (Pitino is going for his 300th win as Louisville coach Monday night) is tremendous defense. Louisville is third in the nation in turnover margin (6.1) and also third in the nation in steals per game (10.8).
A win for Cincinnati, currently 50th in the RPI, would be enormous for solidifying an NCAA tournament berth. It's not a necessity -- the Bearcats have the profile of a tournament team right now -- but a victory would almost certainly clinch one. Cincinnati's Sean Kilpatrick (17.7 points per game) has emerged as one of the best players in the country. He was recently named one of the 30 finalists for the Naismith Award, given to the National Player of the Year, and he's led the Bearcats in scoring in nine of their past 11 games.
Ted Sevransky says: "After notching wins against the three true bottom feeders in the Big East (DePaul, Seton Hall and South Florida), Pitino's squad stepped up against Syracuse on Saturday. Despite another miserable performance from shooting guard Peyton Siva -- held scoreless and benched down the stretch, the fifth time in his last 10 games that he's been held to two points or less -- Louisville made the big plays on both ends of the floor during crunch time against the Orange to escape with the five-point road victory.
<offer>"Louisville forces 18.7 turnovers per game, second best in the nation in that crucial defensive category, and it has held its last five opponents to an average of just 54 points per game on a combined 35.5 percent shooting from the floor. That's bad news for a Bearcats squad that has been held under 35 percent shooting for their last five ballgames. Leading scorer Sean Kilpatrick is the lone consistent offensive threat for this guard-heavy rotation. And with Justin Jackson out with a foot injury, Cincinnati frontcourt mates Titus Rubles and Cheikh Mbodj are going to have to avoid foul trouble if the Bearcats are going to avoid getting dominated in the paint.
"Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin is a former Pitino assistant, and his team has matched up well with the Cardinals in recent contests. The Bearcats have won three of the last four meetings in straight-up fashion, the lone loss coming in a competitive, six-point defeat in last year's Big East tournament. Louisville hasn't beaten the Bearcats by double digits -- the margin they'll need to cover the spread tonight -- since January 2007. With a 16-7 point spread mark in their last 23 road games, I'll call for the Bearcats to hang within the number in this meeting as well."
Sevransky's ATS pick: Cincinnati
[h=3]Matchup: Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns[/h]
Spread: Baylor -2
PickCenter breakdown
Texas has struggled throughout the season, at one point losing six straight and eight out of 10. Perhaps it will have some added motivation to put forth a solid performance in its last home game this season.
The return of Myck Kabongo has helped Texas. The Longhorns have won three of the six games since his return, and the three defeats were against ranked opponents.
For Baylor (No. 63 in the RPI) to make the NCAA tournament, this is close to a must-win game. ESPN Insider's Joe Lunardi has Baylor as the second team out in his latest analysis. A loss to Texas would be devastating to its chances. Baylor's biggest problem this season has been winning close games, as the Bears are 1-7 in games decided by five points or fewer. Baylor defeated Texas in overtime earlier this season.
Ted Sevransky says: "Baylor has been in free fall for weeks, and the Bears' chances of getting an at-large bid to the Big Dance have declined with each of the seven losses they've suffered in their last 10 games. Yes, all seven of those defeats have come against likely tournament teams, but five weeks of basketball with only a pair of wins against West Virginia and a single victory against Texas Tech to show for it simply doesn't cut it.
"Yes, Baylor has plenty of talent. Pierre Jackson leads the conference in scoring, 3-point attempts and assists. And frosh center Isaiah Austin is the second-leading rebounder in the Big 12 and a surefire NBA first-rounder in the upcoming draft. But the supporting cast for head coach Scott Drew simply hasn't stepped up, and the Bears have been at the wrong end of several recent tough losses.
"The first meeting between these two teams was an overtime thriller won by Baylor, in large part due to the Bears' massive edge at the free throw line: 45 attempts for the Bears compared to only 14 attempts for the Longhorns. But since Kabongo returned to the lineup, the Longhorns' offense has flowed much better, and they've pulled off a pair of solid overtime wins against Iowa State and Oklahoma State in recent home games. I expect another outright upset from Texas tonight."
Sevransky's ATS pick: Texas
</offer>
By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider
With football season over, college basketball has taken the spotlight for gamblers. That means it's time for your weekly chaser columns to turn to college basketball, which has games every night across the country, so there are plenty of opportunities to try to beat the lines.
Every Monday, we'll take a look at the two games airing on ESPN from a gambling perspective, with a pick on the game from Ted Sevransky here on Insider.
[h=3]Matchup: Cincinnati Bearcats at Louisville Cardinals[/h]
Spread: Louisville -10
PickCenter breakdown
Spread: Louisville -10
PickCenter breakdown
After a thrilling win at Syracuse on Saturday, Louisville returns home to face Cincinnati. The Cardinals have lost only one game at home in 2013, and that was to Syracuse.
Early in the season, Louisville was the No. 1 ranked team in the nation. A midseason three-game losing streak raised questions, but the Cardinals have responded well. A normal staple of all Rick Pitino teams (Pitino is going for his 300th win as Louisville coach Monday night) is tremendous defense. Louisville is third in the nation in turnover margin (6.1) and also third in the nation in steals per game (10.8).
A win for Cincinnati, currently 50th in the RPI, would be enormous for solidifying an NCAA tournament berth. It's not a necessity -- the Bearcats have the profile of a tournament team right now -- but a victory would almost certainly clinch one. Cincinnati's Sean Kilpatrick (17.7 points per game) has emerged as one of the best players in the country. He was recently named one of the 30 finalists for the Naismith Award, given to the National Player of the Year, and he's led the Bearcats in scoring in nine of their past 11 games.
Ted Sevransky says: "After notching wins against the three true bottom feeders in the Big East (DePaul, Seton Hall and South Florida), Pitino's squad stepped up against Syracuse on Saturday. Despite another miserable performance from shooting guard Peyton Siva -- held scoreless and benched down the stretch, the fifth time in his last 10 games that he's been held to two points or less -- Louisville made the big plays on both ends of the floor during crunch time against the Orange to escape with the five-point road victory.
<offer>"Louisville forces 18.7 turnovers per game, second best in the nation in that crucial defensive category, and it has held its last five opponents to an average of just 54 points per game on a combined 35.5 percent shooting from the floor. That's bad news for a Bearcats squad that has been held under 35 percent shooting for their last five ballgames. Leading scorer Sean Kilpatrick is the lone consistent offensive threat for this guard-heavy rotation. And with Justin Jackson out with a foot injury, Cincinnati frontcourt mates Titus Rubles and Cheikh Mbodj are going to have to avoid foul trouble if the Bearcats are going to avoid getting dominated in the paint.
"Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin is a former Pitino assistant, and his team has matched up well with the Cardinals in recent contests. The Bearcats have won three of the last four meetings in straight-up fashion, the lone loss coming in a competitive, six-point defeat in last year's Big East tournament. Louisville hasn't beaten the Bearcats by double digits -- the margin they'll need to cover the spread tonight -- since January 2007. With a 16-7 point spread mark in their last 23 road games, I'll call for the Bearcats to hang within the number in this meeting as well."
Sevransky's ATS pick: Cincinnati
[h=3]Matchup: Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns[/h]
Spread: Baylor -2
PickCenter breakdown
Texas has struggled throughout the season, at one point losing six straight and eight out of 10. Perhaps it will have some added motivation to put forth a solid performance in its last home game this season.
The return of Myck Kabongo has helped Texas. The Longhorns have won three of the six games since his return, and the three defeats were against ranked opponents.
For Baylor (No. 63 in the RPI) to make the NCAA tournament, this is close to a must-win game. ESPN Insider's Joe Lunardi has Baylor as the second team out in his latest analysis. A loss to Texas would be devastating to its chances. Baylor's biggest problem this season has been winning close games, as the Bears are 1-7 in games decided by five points or fewer. Baylor defeated Texas in overtime earlier this season.
Ted Sevransky says: "Baylor has been in free fall for weeks, and the Bears' chances of getting an at-large bid to the Big Dance have declined with each of the seven losses they've suffered in their last 10 games. Yes, all seven of those defeats have come against likely tournament teams, but five weeks of basketball with only a pair of wins against West Virginia and a single victory against Texas Tech to show for it simply doesn't cut it.
"Yes, Baylor has plenty of talent. Pierre Jackson leads the conference in scoring, 3-point attempts and assists. And frosh center Isaiah Austin is the second-leading rebounder in the Big 12 and a surefire NBA first-rounder in the upcoming draft. But the supporting cast for head coach Scott Drew simply hasn't stepped up, and the Bears have been at the wrong end of several recent tough losses.
"The first meeting between these two teams was an overtime thriller won by Baylor, in large part due to the Bears' massive edge at the free throw line: 45 attempts for the Bears compared to only 14 attempts for the Longhorns. But since Kabongo returned to the lineup, the Longhorns' offense has flowed much better, and they've pulled off a pair of solid overtime wins against Iowa State and Oklahoma State in recent home games. I expect another outright upset from Texas tonight."
Sevransky's ATS pick: Texas
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