[h=1]Halladay will be an ace again[/h][h=3]The future Hall of Famer still has the tools to dominate the National League
By Teddy Mitrosilis ESPN Insider
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Where did his dominance go? Did it slink out the rear exit with his velocity? What was 2012 -- an injury-fueled outlier or the first tremor of something much worse?
These are legitimate questions, and Roy Halladay will try to answer them this spring. The funny thing is that, until this point, Halladay's career has been mystery-less. Elite innings and consistency -- they've reported to camp with Halladay for a decade. But he'll be 36 in May, he slogged through 156⅓ innings last season, his 4.49 ERA was his worst since 2000, he struck out fewer batters, he visited the DL, so people ask: Who is Halladay now?
That's fair. But Halladay is also one season removed from 233⅔ innings, a 2.35 ERA, a top-20 ground ball rate (among starters), a top-11 strikeout rate and a top-four walk rate. He did that at age 34.
"If he hasn't lost arm speed, which you can't know until you see him during the season, then he can get back to that," a longtime MLB evaluator who has followed Halladay's career says.
Can he get back to that in 2013? Yes, he can. Study Halladay and his 2012 season more closely and his path back to being a dominant ace emerges rather clearly.
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[h=3]A changed man[/h]
From the start of last season, Halladay's decreased velocity -- mostly in the high 80s -- was a topic of discussion. When he went on the disabled list in late May with shoulder soreness, it became the primary concern, and for good reason. "Shoulder" and "decreased velocity" often equals a serious injury, and with a slower heater, hitters don't have to cheat as much, allowing them to wait longer on off-speed pitches.
But Halladay's biggest issue wasn't his shoulder, which didn't show any structural damage in medical tests. It was lower-back pain that he tried to pitch through even though it essentially ruined his ability to use his lower half (leading to the strained shoulder).
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]A different approach[/h]Roy Halladay's pitch selection in two-strike counts against righties and lefties (percentages rounded).
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<!-- end inline 2 -->"His [lower half] is probably 80 percent of his whole delivery and power, maybe more," the evaluator says. "Without the legs, you lose arm speed and velocity. That means something, but Halladay's calling card has always been his sinker. Establish that and then he can move the ball around."
We associate a pitcher's lower half with his ability to throw hard -- Nolan Ryan's driving off the mound, grunting and hurling high-90s heaters comes to mind -- but here's the dirty detail that affects Halladay more: When the legs die, velocity isn't the only casualty. Movement and life on fastballs, bite on breaking balls, command -- it all takes a hit. "It hurts everything," the evaluator says.
Halladay's dominance has come from pure mastery of those ingredients. At his best, Halladay's pitches are always running or cutting or sinking, and he's completely unpredictable. Most pitchers follow patterns and turn to out pitches with two strikes. Halladay offers no such hints of what he might do.
Look at his two-strike charts from 2011 (percentages should be taken generally, as the tracking cameras can classify a pitch incorrectly): 24 percent four-seam fastballs; 21 percent changeups; 21 percent curveballs; 24 percent cutters; 11 percent sinkers. Considering location, his options against right-handers were: four-seamer in, four-seamer away, sinker in, sinker away, cutter in, cutter away, changeup in, changeup away, curveball away. Against lefties, he'd stay mostly away with his four-seamer and changeup, but all of the other options were available, and he could dot his location with any of them.
That's how with a fastball sitting 91-92 mph, Halladay produced the best WAR season of his career (8.1) and continued his reputation as one of the best pitchers of his generation.
Last season, he changed. Halladay all but scrapped his four-seam fastball and increased his cutter usage from 27 percent in 2011 to 41 percent -- an increase far too great to be a simple coincidence from throwing one more cutter here, one more cutter there during the course of a long season.
A theory proposed to the evaluator: Because Halladay couldn't use his lower half, he knew his velocity was mostly in the high 80s and his stuff overall lacked some crispness, so he gambled on the cutter and the hope he could move it off the barrel enough to create weak contact. Keep it down, keep it cutting and he just might get away with this.
"That's a reasonable conclusion," the evaluator says. "He was just trying to grind through it. Normally he wants to make guys conscious of the inside part of the plate, but he wasn't able to do that as well."
Halladay didn't get away with it, of course. The cutters were flatter and slower, and 43 percent of them were up in the zone. With two strikes, he threw 34 percent cutters, 32 percent curveballs and 19 percent changeups. This doesn't mean he was easy to figure out -- he still moved three pitches around the zone. But suddenly there was a semblance of a pattern. Halladay's stuff wasn't as sharp, and he made himself more predictable. It was a two-front war he couldn't win.
[h=3]Reason for hope[/h]
But those genius skills Halladay displayed in 2011 don't simply evaporate like a good fastball can with a bad injury. He's not a right-hander who depends on premium velocity, some old bronco who's doomed when he just can't rev it up with the young fellas anymore.
And that's why there is hope for Halladay. He says he solved his back issues during the winter and can use his legs in his delivery again. Sure, age will have its way with his arm eventually, but every indicator of health -- good delivery, a track record of durability, superior conditioning -- still points in his favor. More important, with his legs underneath him, he won't need to rig up some cutter-heavy plan to outthink hitters. He'll be unpredictable and deadly again.
"He can survive at 89-91 if he can go back and get 93 when he needs it," the evaluator says. "If that back and arm hold up, he can pitch into his 40s, because he has a young man's body and has always been about conditioning."
The real answers will come during the summer grind, but Halladay has sat 89-91 and touched 92 this spring. If he can bottle that, it's plenty given the style of pitching that has made him a likely Hall of Famer.
In Philly, that 2011 Halladay may seem gone forever. That's fine if you want to brace for the worst. Just don't act surprised if he reappears at "The Bank" this summer.
By Teddy Mitrosilis ESPN Insider
Where did his dominance go? Did it slink out the rear exit with his velocity? What was 2012 -- an injury-fueled outlier or the first tremor of something much worse?
These are legitimate questions, and Roy Halladay will try to answer them this spring. The funny thing is that, until this point, Halladay's career has been mystery-less. Elite innings and consistency -- they've reported to camp with Halladay for a decade. But he'll be 36 in May, he slogged through 156⅓ innings last season, his 4.49 ERA was his worst since 2000, he struck out fewer batters, he visited the DL, so people ask: Who is Halladay now?
That's fair. But Halladay is also one season removed from 233⅔ innings, a 2.35 ERA, a top-20 ground ball rate (among starters), a top-11 strikeout rate and a top-four walk rate. He did that at age 34.
"If he hasn't lost arm speed, which you can't know until you see him during the season, then he can get back to that," a longtime MLB evaluator who has followed Halladay's career says.
Can he get back to that in 2013? Yes, he can. Study Halladay and his 2012 season more closely and his path back to being a dominant ace emerges rather clearly.
<OFFER>
[h=3]A changed man[/h]
From the start of last season, Halladay's decreased velocity -- mostly in the high 80s -- was a topic of discussion. When he went on the disabled list in late May with shoulder soreness, it became the primary concern, and for good reason. "Shoulder" and "decreased velocity" often equals a serious injury, and with a slower heater, hitters don't have to cheat as much, allowing them to wait longer on off-speed pitches.
But Halladay's biggest issue wasn't his shoulder, which didn't show any structural damage in medical tests. It was lower-back pain that he tried to pitch through even though it essentially ruined his ability to use his lower half (leading to the strained shoulder).
<!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]A different approach[/h]Roy Halladay's pitch selection in two-strike counts against righties and lefties (percentages rounded).
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<!-- end inline 2 -->"His [lower half] is probably 80 percent of his whole delivery and power, maybe more," the evaluator says. "Without the legs, you lose arm speed and velocity. That means something, but Halladay's calling card has always been his sinker. Establish that and then he can move the ball around."
We associate a pitcher's lower half with his ability to throw hard -- Nolan Ryan's driving off the mound, grunting and hurling high-90s heaters comes to mind -- but here's the dirty detail that affects Halladay more: When the legs die, velocity isn't the only casualty. Movement and life on fastballs, bite on breaking balls, command -- it all takes a hit. "It hurts everything," the evaluator says.
Halladay's dominance has come from pure mastery of those ingredients. At his best, Halladay's pitches are always running or cutting or sinking, and he's completely unpredictable. Most pitchers follow patterns and turn to out pitches with two strikes. Halladay offers no such hints of what he might do.
Look at his two-strike charts from 2011 (percentages should be taken generally, as the tracking cameras can classify a pitch incorrectly): 24 percent four-seam fastballs; 21 percent changeups; 21 percent curveballs; 24 percent cutters; 11 percent sinkers. Considering location, his options against right-handers were: four-seamer in, four-seamer away, sinker in, sinker away, cutter in, cutter away, changeup in, changeup away, curveball away. Against lefties, he'd stay mostly away with his four-seamer and changeup, but all of the other options were available, and he could dot his location with any of them.
That's how with a fastball sitting 91-92 mph, Halladay produced the best WAR season of his career (8.1) and continued his reputation as one of the best pitchers of his generation.
Last season, he changed. Halladay all but scrapped his four-seam fastball and increased his cutter usage from 27 percent in 2011 to 41 percent -- an increase far too great to be a simple coincidence from throwing one more cutter here, one more cutter there during the course of a long season.
A theory proposed to the evaluator: Because Halladay couldn't use his lower half, he knew his velocity was mostly in the high 80s and his stuff overall lacked some crispness, so he gambled on the cutter and the hope he could move it off the barrel enough to create weak contact. Keep it down, keep it cutting and he just might get away with this.
"That's a reasonable conclusion," the evaluator says. "He was just trying to grind through it. Normally he wants to make guys conscious of the inside part of the plate, but he wasn't able to do that as well."
Halladay didn't get away with it, of course. The cutters were flatter and slower, and 43 percent of them were up in the zone. With two strikes, he threw 34 percent cutters, 32 percent curveballs and 19 percent changeups. This doesn't mean he was easy to figure out -- he still moved three pitches around the zone. But suddenly there was a semblance of a pattern. Halladay's stuff wasn't as sharp, and he made himself more predictable. It was a two-front war he couldn't win.
[h=3]Reason for hope[/h]
But those genius skills Halladay displayed in 2011 don't simply evaporate like a good fastball can with a bad injury. He's not a right-hander who depends on premium velocity, some old bronco who's doomed when he just can't rev it up with the young fellas anymore.
And that's why there is hope for Halladay. He says he solved his back issues during the winter and can use his legs in his delivery again. Sure, age will have its way with his arm eventually, but every indicator of health -- good delivery, a track record of durability, superior conditioning -- still points in his favor. More important, with his legs underneath him, he won't need to rig up some cutter-heavy plan to outthink hitters. He'll be unpredictable and deadly again.
"He can survive at 89-91 if he can go back and get 93 when he needs it," the evaluator says. "If that back and arm hold up, he can pitch into his 40s, because he has a young man's body and has always been about conditioning."
The real answers will come during the summer grind, but Halladay has sat 89-91 and touched 92 this spring. If he can bottle that, it's plenty given the style of pitching that has made him a likely Hall of Famer.
In Philly, that 2011 Halladay may seem gone forever. That's fine if you want to brace for the worst. Just don't act surprised if he reappears at "The Bank" this summer.
