Bracket Math: Duke Takes Top Spot

Search

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,160
Tokens
[h=1]Bracket Math: Duke takes top spot[/h][h=3]La Salle, Boise State, Kentucky, Virginia last four in; Cardinals a No. 1 seed[/h]
By Joe Lunardi | ESPN Insider
in.gif



This edition of Bracket Math includes games through March 10. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.

Notes on the "new" math:

• We've officially come full circle since the start of 2013. Duke was the clear No. 1 overall seed when the calendar turned to January, and the Blue Devils have regained that perch after giving it up to several challengers during the span of Ryan Kelly's injury. But now that Kelly is back and the Devils have posted an impressive road win with him in the lineup, there is nothing to question about Duke's credentials. If the Blue Devils capture the ACC tournament, they will be 21-0 with Kelly in the lineup and first on the S-curve come Selection Sunday night.

• Just a note that we raise the tourney odds to 90 percent for all teams listed in green from this point forward. As you can see, there really aren't many spots left in the field. In the unlikely event a team drops out of this near-lock status, we're talking no more than a half-dozen spots in play during the next seven days and nights.

• Only one impactful Monday game: St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga (WCC title). A Gonzaga win should assure the Bulldogs a No. 1 seed for the first time in school history. Anything other than an overwhelming defeat should keep the Gaels in the projected NCAA field.

[h=3]The Bracket[/h]
This is where I project teams would fall if Selection Sunday were today. Remember, the S-curve flows left to right, then right to left, then back again as you read down the chart.
<OFFER>ALL CAPS: Highest remaining seed or AQ (automatic qualifier in BOLD).
GREEN: Teams with tourney odds of 90 percent or better through games of March 10.
YELLOW: Last four in (would play March 19-20 in Dayton, Ohio)
GOLD: Lowest four automatic bids (would play March 19-20 in Dayton, Ohio)
RED: First four out (teams 69-72 on the S-curve)
PURPLE: Next four out (teams 73-76 on the S-curve)

[h=4]The full S-curve[/h]
ALL CAPS: conference leader

1. Duke2. INDIANA3. GONZAGA4. Louisville
8. Ohio State 7. MIAMI (FL)6. GEORGETOWN5. KANSAS
9. Michigan St 10. NEW MEXICO11. Michigan12. FLORIDA
16. Wisconsin 15. Oklahoma State14. Kansas State13. Marquette
17. Pittsburgh18. Syracuse19. Arizona20. SAINT LOUIS
24. Butler23. UCLA22. Vcu21. Unlv
25. Notre Dame26. North Carolina27. MEMPHIS28. Colorado State
32. Illinois31. CREIGHTON30. Missouri29. NC State
33. Oregon34. Minnesota35. San Diego State36. California
40. Cincinnati39. Saint Mary's38. Colorado37. Oklahoma
41. Villanova42. Wichita State43. Iowa State44. Temple
48. BELMONT47. Kentucky46. Boise State45. La Salle
49. Virginia50. BUCKNELL51. LA TECH52. AKRON
56. SO. DAKOTA ST55. S.F. AUSTIN54. VALPARAISO53. DAVIDSON
57. HARVARD58. MONTANA59. FGCU60. IONA
64. NORTHEASTERN63. FLA. INTL62. VERMONT61. LONG BEACH
65. LONG ISLAND66. NORFOLK ST67. SOUTHERN U.68. LIBERTY
72. Baylor71. Ole Miss70. Middle Tennessee69. Tennessee
73. Southern Miss74. Alabama75. Iowa76. Arizona State

<TBODY>
</TBODY>



[h=3]The Math[/h]
Take our "solid" at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 90 percent or better) and you now have 43 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that's another 20 spots. All told we have 63 of the 68 spots accounted for, with only five up for grabs among current "bubble" teams.

[h=3]The bubble (13 teams for 5 spots)[/h]
IN (5, in S-curve order):
44. Temple, 45. La Salle, 46. Boise State, 47. Kentucky, 49. Virginia

OUT (8, in S-curve order):
69. Tennessee, 70. Middle Tennessee, 71. Ole Miss, 72. Baylor,73. Southern Miss, 74. Alabama, 75. Iowa, 76. Arizona State

[h=3]Conference breakdown[/h]• Big East (8)
• Big Ten (7)
• ACC (5)
• Atlantic 10 (5)
• Big 12 (5)
• Mountain West (5)
• Pac-12 (5)
• SEC (3)
• Missouri Valley (2)
• West Coast (2)


[h=3]N.I.T. automatic qualifiers[/h]• Charleston Southern/BIG SOUTH
• Mercer/ATLANTIC SUN
• Middle Tennessee/SUN BELT*
• Niagara/MAAC
• Northeastern/COLONIAL
• Robert Morris/NEC
• Stony Brook/AMERICA EAST
* if no NCAA at-large bid
 

RX Local
Joined
Jul 10, 2007
Messages
24,032
Tokens
baylor out/tenn out.. = disgusting

I think they will fight their way in the big12/sec tournaments respectively @)

-murph
 

New member
Joined
Sep 24, 2012
Messages
20,483
Tokens
still thinking iu can take the top spot if they win the big ten tourny
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,898
Messages
13,439,288
Members
99,339
Latest member
billcunninghamhomeloans
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com