[h=1]What Mike Wallace brings to Miami[/h][h=3]The speedy receiver will help Dolphins' offense, but a question remains[/h]
By Andy Benoit | Football Outsiders
The Miami Dolphins have reportedly landed Mike Wallace, the man many believe to be the prized free agent wideout of 2013. In four years with the Pittsburgh Steelers, the third-round pick from Mississippi established himself as one of the game's preeminent vertical threats. Despite following back-to-back 1,100-yard seasons with a disappointing 836-yard campaign last year, Wallace still procured a reported five-year, $60 million deal from the Dolphins. Will it prove to be money well spent?
When analyzing a headliner transaction like this, there's a tendency to dive too deep and lose sight of the big picture. The big picture here is: Wallace is a good player. A really good player, in fact. He's a lanky long-strider with the type of speed and acceleration that makes defensive coaches lose sleep.
<OFFER>Also part of the big picture is that the Dolphins badly needed a downfield threat at wide receiver. Week in and week out last season, it was painfully apparent that limitations in the passing game made Miami's offense easy to scheme against.
On every down, Wallace is a genuine threat to take the top off the defense -- and there might be only five or six other guys in the league you could say that about. His arrival carries a potentially lucrative domino effect, as it allows the vastly underrated Brian Hartline to slide into a true No. 2 role and the diminutive but shifty Davone Bess to operate strictly out of the slot. These are roles both guys are tailor-made for playing. Hartline is a sharp intermediate receiver outside the numbers. He has the route-running refinement to be an upper-tier Z-receiver in base sets (meaning he'll go in motion, run option routes off the line of scrimmage, etc.). With Wallace at the X-receiver (i.e. the standstill guy aligned outside on the line of scrimmage), many of Hartline's routes will be against one-on-one coverage. Same goes for Bess, whom last season opponents tended to effectively combat with double teams inside. If they do that this year, they'll likely have to rely on an overmatched linebacker or backup safety as part of that coverage. Otherwise, they'll be vulnerable against Wallace downfield.
So yes, the big picture says that signing Wallace makes sense. But when you drill down and look at the details, some of the shine from this deal begins to fade. For starters, Wallace is not an elite wide receiver. There's a difference between being an elite home run hitter and being an elite wide receiver. Wallace remains an unpolished route runner at the shallow and intermediate levels. Too often last season he disappeared for long stretches even though the Steelers made a concerted effort to get him easy touches early in games. Drops were also a bit of an issue. (Though unless you're Freddie Mitchell, drops are a problem that can usually be cured.)
The skill set is one part of the concern. The other part is: What went on behind the scenes that allowed the Steelers to be comfortable with letting Wallace just walk away? All the benefits of his playmaking prowess that we've discussed so far also applied to Pittsburgh's offense. Last year, even though Antonio Brown had clearly blossomed into the team's best all-around receiver, defenses more often than not still dedicated their No. 1 corner and/or safety help to stopping Wallace. And yet it had long been known that Pittsburgh would be saying goodbye to Wallace after 2012. Yes, salary cap issues factored in that (especially after they re-upped Brown), but the Steelers had the better part of two years to address those issues and find a way to keep their dynamic young receiver -- they chose not to. Clearly, GM Kevin Colbert figured Wallace would not be able to perform to his market value once his rookie deal expired. What caused Colbert to think this?
Then there's the issue of how well Wallace really fits in Miami's system. Yes, he's a classic X-receiver. And that's good -- you can build a quality aerial attack with that. But recall that Joe Philbin got this head coaching job because of the work he did coordinating the Green Bay Packers offense. Talent-wise, Wallace gives Miami a receiving corps comparable to what Philbin had in Green Bay. But style-wise, Miami's receiving corps can't hold a candle to Green Bay's.
The magic of the Packers' passing game -- besides it being orchestrated by Aaron Rodgers -- is the flexibility of its wideouts. Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, James Jones and Donald Driver (now Randall Cobb) can all line up inside or outside; they can all run great patterns out of a trips bunch or out of isolation on the weak side; and they can all catch passes without breaking stride. Wallace has posted impressive yards-after-catch numbers before, but many of them came from him sitting down in a zone before turning upfield and making an improvised play. That's very different from catching on the move by design, as the latter requires timing and precision.
It would be too harsh to call Wallace a "one-trick pony," but it'd be flat wrong to think he can do it all. In a lot of respects, the Dolphins may have been better off keeping other options open by signing the cheaper, more flexible and experienced Jennings. The fact that they didn't suggests Philbin could be inclined to keep running a more conventional offense than what he ran in Green Bay. And that makes sense, since it's not just Wallace who lacks the necessary dimensions.
As mentioned earlier, Hartline and Bess are both very specific role players (though Hartline could make a good "poor man's Jordy Nelson" if need be). And the chances of the Dolphins filling their gaping hole at tight end with someone like Jermichael Finley are slim to none (the only available veteran who could maybe come close to that mold is ex-Titan Jared Cook -- and he's not as fast or limber as Finley). Finally, let's not forget, Philbin doesn't have the quarterback in Miami that he had in Green Bay. Impressive as Ryan Tannehill was in 2012 -- and he was far more impressive than his numbers suggest -- he's still early in his development.
Take all this into consideration and it's clear that Wallace will certainly help the Dolphins. But Miami's offense remains far from an elite unit.
By Andy Benoit | Football Outsiders
The Miami Dolphins have reportedly landed Mike Wallace, the man many believe to be the prized free agent wideout of 2013. In four years with the Pittsburgh Steelers, the third-round pick from Mississippi established himself as one of the game's preeminent vertical threats. Despite following back-to-back 1,100-yard seasons with a disappointing 836-yard campaign last year, Wallace still procured a reported five-year, $60 million deal from the Dolphins. Will it prove to be money well spent?
When analyzing a headliner transaction like this, there's a tendency to dive too deep and lose sight of the big picture. The big picture here is: Wallace is a good player. A really good player, in fact. He's a lanky long-strider with the type of speed and acceleration that makes defensive coaches lose sleep.
<OFFER>Also part of the big picture is that the Dolphins badly needed a downfield threat at wide receiver. Week in and week out last season, it was painfully apparent that limitations in the passing game made Miami's offense easy to scheme against.
On every down, Wallace is a genuine threat to take the top off the defense -- and there might be only five or six other guys in the league you could say that about. His arrival carries a potentially lucrative domino effect, as it allows the vastly underrated Brian Hartline to slide into a true No. 2 role and the diminutive but shifty Davone Bess to operate strictly out of the slot. These are roles both guys are tailor-made for playing. Hartline is a sharp intermediate receiver outside the numbers. He has the route-running refinement to be an upper-tier Z-receiver in base sets (meaning he'll go in motion, run option routes off the line of scrimmage, etc.). With Wallace at the X-receiver (i.e. the standstill guy aligned outside on the line of scrimmage), many of Hartline's routes will be against one-on-one coverage. Same goes for Bess, whom last season opponents tended to effectively combat with double teams inside. If they do that this year, they'll likely have to rely on an overmatched linebacker or backup safety as part of that coverage. Otherwise, they'll be vulnerable against Wallace downfield.
So yes, the big picture says that signing Wallace makes sense. But when you drill down and look at the details, some of the shine from this deal begins to fade. For starters, Wallace is not an elite wide receiver. There's a difference between being an elite home run hitter and being an elite wide receiver. Wallace remains an unpolished route runner at the shallow and intermediate levels. Too often last season he disappeared for long stretches even though the Steelers made a concerted effort to get him easy touches early in games. Drops were also a bit of an issue. (Though unless you're Freddie Mitchell, drops are a problem that can usually be cured.)
The skill set is one part of the concern. The other part is: What went on behind the scenes that allowed the Steelers to be comfortable with letting Wallace just walk away? All the benefits of his playmaking prowess that we've discussed so far also applied to Pittsburgh's offense. Last year, even though Antonio Brown had clearly blossomed into the team's best all-around receiver, defenses more often than not still dedicated their No. 1 corner and/or safety help to stopping Wallace. And yet it had long been known that Pittsburgh would be saying goodbye to Wallace after 2012. Yes, salary cap issues factored in that (especially after they re-upped Brown), but the Steelers had the better part of two years to address those issues and find a way to keep their dynamic young receiver -- they chose not to. Clearly, GM Kevin Colbert figured Wallace would not be able to perform to his market value once his rookie deal expired. What caused Colbert to think this?
Then there's the issue of how well Wallace really fits in Miami's system. Yes, he's a classic X-receiver. And that's good -- you can build a quality aerial attack with that. But recall that Joe Philbin got this head coaching job because of the work he did coordinating the Green Bay Packers offense. Talent-wise, Wallace gives Miami a receiving corps comparable to what Philbin had in Green Bay. But style-wise, Miami's receiving corps can't hold a candle to Green Bay's.
The magic of the Packers' passing game -- besides it being orchestrated by Aaron Rodgers -- is the flexibility of its wideouts. Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, James Jones and Donald Driver (now Randall Cobb) can all line up inside or outside; they can all run great patterns out of a trips bunch or out of isolation on the weak side; and they can all catch passes without breaking stride. Wallace has posted impressive yards-after-catch numbers before, but many of them came from him sitting down in a zone before turning upfield and making an improvised play. That's very different from catching on the move by design, as the latter requires timing and precision.
It would be too harsh to call Wallace a "one-trick pony," but it'd be flat wrong to think he can do it all. In a lot of respects, the Dolphins may have been better off keeping other options open by signing the cheaper, more flexible and experienced Jennings. The fact that they didn't suggests Philbin could be inclined to keep running a more conventional offense than what he ran in Green Bay. And that makes sense, since it's not just Wallace who lacks the necessary dimensions.
As mentioned earlier, Hartline and Bess are both very specific role players (though Hartline could make a good "poor man's Jordy Nelson" if need be). And the chances of the Dolphins filling their gaping hole at tight end with someone like Jermichael Finley are slim to none (the only available veteran who could maybe come close to that mold is ex-Titan Jared Cook -- and he's not as fast or limber as Finley). Finally, let's not forget, Philbin doesn't have the quarterback in Miami that he had in Green Bay. Impressive as Ryan Tannehill was in 2012 -- and he was far more impressive than his numbers suggest -- he's still early in his development.
Take all this into consideration and it's clear that Wallace will certainly help the Dolphins. But Miami's offense remains far from an elite unit.
