[h=1]Betting St-Pierre vs. Diaz[/h][h=3]Finding value in the main event, Hendricks-Condit and all UFC 158 bouts[/h]
By John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER
Since the merger of Strikeforce into the UFC, there have been many compelling matchups between both organizations' finest fighters. This inter-organization matchmaking will come to a head on Saturday, as Strikeforce's most infamous champion, Nick Diaz, takes on one of the UFC's best welterweight champs and pound-for-pound great, Georges St-Pierre (GSP).
In other action, Johny Hendricks takes on Carlos Condit, Jake Ellenberger fights Nate Marquardt, and Nick Ring battles Chris Camozzi.
Here's a breakdown of the statistics and odds surrounding the fights to see how perceptions between the two organizations will play a role in the main event, and to see where value lies in betting UFC 158.
<CENTER>[h=3]Georges St-Pierre (minus-500) vs. Nick Diaz (plus-400)[/h]</CENTER>
The most notable aspect of the UFC 158 main event will be the hype and drama that the always surrounds Diaz. As Diaz likely will get under the skin of the professional, reserved St-Pierre, the question will be whether bettors will be led to believe that Diaz has some intangible edge heading into the fight. However, upon considering the statistics, it's hard to believe that the flawless GSP could be deterred by anything.
Diaz possesses one of the most impressive skill sets in MMA; his prolific striking ability mixed with his unrivaled endurance helps to maintain his pace deep into the championship rounds. With a 6.03 strikes landed per minute (SLpM) rate, Diaz almost always possesses this advantage against opponents, especially in five-round fights. However, against St. Pierre, Diaz may not find himself standing for very long, as GSP has arguably the most effective wrestling ability in MMA, holding the record for most takedowns in UFC history with 75. With opponents almost helpless against his attempts, GSP manages to get opponents to the ground 4.3 times per 15 minutes with a ridiculous accuracy of 78 percent, the all-time UFC record. With only a slightly above-average takedown defense (64 percent), Diaz likely won't be the first to keep GSP from putting him on his back. As a result, will Diaz be able to submit GSP at any point in the five rounds (if it goes that far)?
Diaz certainly is capable of considerable danger from the bottom, attempting 1.13 submissions per 15 minutes and gaining eight out of his 26 wins by submission. GSP, on the other hand, has only suffered two losses in his entire career, once by armbar while on his back in his first title contention against Matt Hughes, and once to gigantic underdog Matt Serra. Despite these rare losses, consider that GSP has spent the majority of his career inflicting damage from inside of his opponents' guard, and has not once been submitted, making it unlikely that Diaz will be the first, despite his great submission skills.
Further, GSP has faced opponents with similar submission success from off of their backs -- including Carlos Condit, Jake Shields and BJ Penn -- never finding himself in much danger. With GSP nearly a lock to win barring an unlikely submission victory, consider minus-500 for the champ as a heavy favorite an appropriate price, despite the hype.
Insider's value pick: <OFFER>Stay away</OFFER>
<CENTER>[h=3]Johny Hendricks (minus-135) vs. Carlos Condit (plus-115)[/h]</CENTER>
If viewers want a decent preview of how the main event is likely to play out, look no further than the second-most exciting welterweight fight on the card, as Hendricks and Condit match up almost exactly the same as GSP and Diaz. And as is the case with GSP being the heavy favorite in the main event, the numbers again heavily support the fantastic wrestler (Hendricks) against his seasoned opponent (Condit). The difference in this fight, however, is that the discrepancy in the stats is not being represented in the line, with Hendricks favored at nearly even odds of minus-135.
above-average submission ability, attempting 1.45 submissions per 15 minutes and having gained 13 out of his 28 wins in this manner. However, Hendricks has been nearly flawless in his 15-fight career, never losing by submission or knockout, and dropping only one fight by decision.
On the other hand, Hendricks' ability to put opponents away with his striking is alarming for a wrestler, having knocked out opponents eight times in the past, many via the one-punch variety. While Condit has never lost by KO/TKO in the past, he most certainly has never faced an opponent with the blend of skill, speed and power that Hendricks brings. If there would be a first time for Condit to lose by knockout, nobody would be surprised if it happened in this fight. And with Condit's only chance for victory coming in the form of a submission from off of his back -- and given that Hendricks should easily impose his will in the ground game with a history of great submission defense -- getting a minus-135 price for him seems like a terrific bargain despite Condit's talent and past success.
Insider's value pick: Hendricks
<CENTER>[h=3]Jake Ellenberger (minus-165) vs. Nate Marquardt (plus-145)[/h]</CENTER>
Marquardt's return to the UFC won't come with a welcoming gift, as he takes on one of the most well-rounded opponents in the welterweight division in Ellenberger. Despite falling victim to a surprise knockout after nearly finishing Martin Kampmann, you'd have to go back to Ellenberger's UFC debut in 2009 to find his last loss, a close split decision versus Condit. Not only does this impressive record justify Ellenberger as the favorite, but his stats also paint the same picture of consistency.
Though both fighters possess relatively similar striking ability, Ellenberger boasts a much better defense, absorbing only 1.68 strikes per minute, defending a very high 70 percent of attempts. In the ground game, Ellenberger has also shown dominance, with a solid rate of 3.07 takedowns per 15 minutes. Though Marquardt holds a somewhat similar 2.38 takedowns per 15 minutes, Ellenberger possesses an incredibly impressive 93 percent takedown defense, making it highly unlikely that Marquardt would be able to get him to the ground at any point.
And while Ellenberger should be able to control the pace of this fight defensively, he has also demonstrated a strong ability to knock opponents out, having finished a whopping 17 out of his 28 victories by KO/TKO. While Marquardt also has shown the ability to close out fights, consider that Ellenberger has compiled this impressive stream of numbers at the young age of 27 years old, making him six years younger than Marquardt. And while most bettors will be hesitant to jump on board Ellenberger -- due to the recent knockout -- consider him a terrific value at minus-165 given that he has the ability to win this one definitively.
Insider's value pick: Ellenberger
<CENTER>[h=3]Nick Ring (minus-115) vs. Chris Camozzi (minus-115)[/h]</CENTER>
Yes, Ring will be fighting in his home country. And yes, he has never been finished in a fight. And yes, he has only one loss in his career. However, these facts can be deceiving, and Ring is a perfect example of why. If you ask most fight fans, Ring should be 1-3 in the UFC, and the only reason he isn't is due to the help of some controversial judging in his two decision wins against Court McGee and Riki Fukuda. And while on paper Ring may look like a legitimate minus-115 contender against Camozzi , the behind-the-scenes numbers tell a different story.
To begin, Ring will face the much more youthful, larger fighter in Camozzi, who is eight years younger and three inches taller, with a 1.5-inch reach advantage. And if Ring's previous hometown favoritism has you concerned, consider that Camozzi is no stranger to finishing his opponents, as less than 40 percent of his victories have come via the judges. It's true that being the first to finish Ring will be a tall order, but one of the key stats in this fight that most will overlook is Ring's tendency to take a lot of damage, which makes you wonder how he's never been finished before. Compared to Camozzi, who absorbs an already elevated 2.77 strikes per minute, Ring averages a very high volume of 3.62 SApM. Add to this that Camozzi outstrikes Ring, landing 3.99 SLpM compared to Ring's 3.35 SLpM, and he should find himself the superior all-around striker in this matchup.
The caveat, however, is that Camozzi has fallen victim to submissions three times. Ring, on the other hand, has finished six fights by submission; however, with Ring only landing 1.28 takedowns per 15 minutes, it's not a given that he'll be able to enforce his ground game. Thus, with both fighters weighing in at even odds, consider the younger, more dangerous Camozzi a great bet at minus-115 against the somewhat-overrated Ring.
Insider's value pick: Camozzi
FightMetric is the official statistics provider of the UFC.
By John Candido | FightMetric
ESPN INSIDER
Since the merger of Strikeforce into the UFC, there have been many compelling matchups between both organizations' finest fighters. This inter-organization matchmaking will come to a head on Saturday, as Strikeforce's most infamous champion, Nick Diaz, takes on one of the UFC's best welterweight champs and pound-for-pound great, Georges St-Pierre (GSP).
In other action, Johny Hendricks takes on Carlos Condit, Jake Ellenberger fights Nate Marquardt, and Nick Ring battles Chris Camozzi.
Here's a breakdown of the statistics and odds surrounding the fights to see how perceptions between the two organizations will play a role in the main event, and to see where value lies in betting UFC 158.
<CENTER>[h=3]Georges St-Pierre (minus-500) vs. Nick Diaz (plus-400)[/h]</CENTER>
The most notable aspect of the UFC 158 main event will be the hype and drama that the always surrounds Diaz. As Diaz likely will get under the skin of the professional, reserved St-Pierre, the question will be whether bettors will be led to believe that Diaz has some intangible edge heading into the fight. However, upon considering the statistics, it's hard to believe that the flawless GSP could be deterred by anything.
Diaz possesses one of the most impressive skill sets in MMA; his prolific striking ability mixed with his unrivaled endurance helps to maintain his pace deep into the championship rounds. With a 6.03 strikes landed per minute (SLpM) rate, Diaz almost always possesses this advantage against opponents, especially in five-round fights. However, against St. Pierre, Diaz may not find himself standing for very long, as GSP has arguably the most effective wrestling ability in MMA, holding the record for most takedowns in UFC history with 75. With opponents almost helpless against his attempts, GSP manages to get opponents to the ground 4.3 times per 15 minutes with a ridiculous accuracy of 78 percent, the all-time UFC record. With only a slightly above-average takedown defense (64 percent), Diaz likely won't be the first to keep GSP from putting him on his back. As a result, will Diaz be able to submit GSP at any point in the five rounds (if it goes that far)?
Diaz certainly is capable of considerable danger from the bottom, attempting 1.13 submissions per 15 minutes and gaining eight out of his 26 wins by submission. GSP, on the other hand, has only suffered two losses in his entire career, once by armbar while on his back in his first title contention against Matt Hughes, and once to gigantic underdog Matt Serra. Despite these rare losses, consider that GSP has spent the majority of his career inflicting damage from inside of his opponents' guard, and has not once been submitted, making it unlikely that Diaz will be the first, despite his great submission skills.
Further, GSP has faced opponents with similar submission success from off of their backs -- including Carlos Condit, Jake Shields and BJ Penn -- never finding himself in much danger. With GSP nearly a lock to win barring an unlikely submission victory, consider minus-500 for the champ as a heavy favorite an appropriate price, despite the hype.
Insider's value pick: <OFFER>Stay away</OFFER>
<CENTER>[h=3]Johny Hendricks (minus-135) vs. Carlos Condit (plus-115)[/h]</CENTER>
If viewers want a decent preview of how the main event is likely to play out, look no further than the second-most exciting welterweight fight on the card, as Hendricks and Condit match up almost exactly the same as GSP and Diaz. And as is the case with GSP being the heavy favorite in the main event, the numbers again heavily support the fantastic wrestler (Hendricks) against his seasoned opponent (Condit). The difference in this fight, however, is that the discrepancy in the stats is not being represented in the line, with Hendricks favored at nearly even odds of minus-135.
above-average submission ability, attempting 1.45 submissions per 15 minutes and having gained 13 out of his 28 wins in this manner. However, Hendricks has been nearly flawless in his 15-fight career, never losing by submission or knockout, and dropping only one fight by decision.
On the other hand, Hendricks' ability to put opponents away with his striking is alarming for a wrestler, having knocked out opponents eight times in the past, many via the one-punch variety. While Condit has never lost by KO/TKO in the past, he most certainly has never faced an opponent with the blend of skill, speed and power that Hendricks brings. If there would be a first time for Condit to lose by knockout, nobody would be surprised if it happened in this fight. And with Condit's only chance for victory coming in the form of a submission from off of his back -- and given that Hendricks should easily impose his will in the ground game with a history of great submission defense -- getting a minus-135 price for him seems like a terrific bargain despite Condit's talent and past success.
Insider's value pick: Hendricks
<CENTER>[h=3]Jake Ellenberger (minus-165) vs. Nate Marquardt (plus-145)[/h]</CENTER>
Marquardt's return to the UFC won't come with a welcoming gift, as he takes on one of the most well-rounded opponents in the welterweight division in Ellenberger. Despite falling victim to a surprise knockout after nearly finishing Martin Kampmann, you'd have to go back to Ellenberger's UFC debut in 2009 to find his last loss, a close split decision versus Condit. Not only does this impressive record justify Ellenberger as the favorite, but his stats also paint the same picture of consistency.
Though both fighters possess relatively similar striking ability, Ellenberger boasts a much better defense, absorbing only 1.68 strikes per minute, defending a very high 70 percent of attempts. In the ground game, Ellenberger has also shown dominance, with a solid rate of 3.07 takedowns per 15 minutes. Though Marquardt holds a somewhat similar 2.38 takedowns per 15 minutes, Ellenberger possesses an incredibly impressive 93 percent takedown defense, making it highly unlikely that Marquardt would be able to get him to the ground at any point.
And while Ellenberger should be able to control the pace of this fight defensively, he has also demonstrated a strong ability to knock opponents out, having finished a whopping 17 out of his 28 victories by KO/TKO. While Marquardt also has shown the ability to close out fights, consider that Ellenberger has compiled this impressive stream of numbers at the young age of 27 years old, making him six years younger than Marquardt. And while most bettors will be hesitant to jump on board Ellenberger -- due to the recent knockout -- consider him a terrific value at minus-165 given that he has the ability to win this one definitively.
Insider's value pick: Ellenberger
<CENTER>[h=3]Nick Ring (minus-115) vs. Chris Camozzi (minus-115)[/h]</CENTER>
Yes, Ring will be fighting in his home country. And yes, he has never been finished in a fight. And yes, he has only one loss in his career. However, these facts can be deceiving, and Ring is a perfect example of why. If you ask most fight fans, Ring should be 1-3 in the UFC, and the only reason he isn't is due to the help of some controversial judging in his two decision wins against Court McGee and Riki Fukuda. And while on paper Ring may look like a legitimate minus-115 contender against Camozzi , the behind-the-scenes numbers tell a different story.
To begin, Ring will face the much more youthful, larger fighter in Camozzi, who is eight years younger and three inches taller, with a 1.5-inch reach advantage. And if Ring's previous hometown favoritism has you concerned, consider that Camozzi is no stranger to finishing his opponents, as less than 40 percent of his victories have come via the judges. It's true that being the first to finish Ring will be a tall order, but one of the key stats in this fight that most will overlook is Ring's tendency to take a lot of damage, which makes you wonder how he's never been finished before. Compared to Camozzi, who absorbs an already elevated 2.77 strikes per minute, Ring averages a very high volume of 3.62 SApM. Add to this that Camozzi outstrikes Ring, landing 3.99 SLpM compared to Ring's 3.35 SLpM, and he should find himself the superior all-around striker in this matchup.
The caveat, however, is that Camozzi has fallen victim to submissions three times. Ring, on the other hand, has finished six fights by submission; however, with Ring only landing 1.28 takedowns per 15 minutes, it's not a given that he'll be able to enforce his ground game. Thus, with both fighters weighing in at even odds, consider the younger, more dangerous Camozzi a great bet at minus-115 against the somewhat-overrated Ring.
Insider's value pick: Camozzi
FightMetric is the official statistics provider of the UFC.
