Bad beats and the NCAA tournament
Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
It was 1:35 on Thursday afternoon. At that moment, I was still getting questions about Iona's bad beat on Monday, still collecting sob stories of folks who had the Gaels minus-4.
It will come as no surprise to anyone that I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer. But it was at that moment, as the anxiety of closing the magazine's MLB preview issue came to an end and I realized that I had a column due Friday morning, that I thought: Bad Beats! That could be a column. Brilliant.
Since I am lazy, the first thing I thought was: Let's see if Twitter can help me. So at exactly 1:35 on Thursday afternoon, I sent out this tweet: "im compiling a bad beat (or miracle cover) list for tomorrow's column. anyone have anything particularly ugly (or lucky) let me know."
Within an hour, no joke, 60 minutes, I had more than 100 responses. And we will get to those. I also emailed a bunch of bookmakers and wiseguys to get their favorite bad beat stories. Within those same 60 minutes, Edward Golden of Right Angle Sports, arguably the most influential college basketball handicapper in the country, responded:
"Look no further than today's Richmond game. Push under 131, and lost under 130.5. Crazy foul fest then multiple T's, 20 points in last 25 seconds. Just completely unreal to lose or push that in regulation."
While many of you were sending me boo-hoos about Duke football's collapse in the Belk Bowl (which I wrote about at the end of December) or the Dukie hoops team's Duhon-led liver twister against UConn in 2004, there was an honest-to-god moose on the loose in the game between Richmond and Charlotte at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn (because that is, naturally, where two teams from mid-Atlantic states play their conference tournament.)
In case you missed the ending, it happened almost exactly as Edward described it. With 24 seconds left, Richmond led 57-56 following a Charlotte layup. Over the next 19 seconds, the teams traded baskets and Richmond took a 63-60 lead as five seconds showed on the clock. I'm not going to recap the whole game, you can read it here, but an intentional foul by Richmond to guard against a 3-pointer transitioned into a technical foul on Richmond when two players got tangled on the rebound of Charlotte's attempted free throws. And in those final five seconds, Charlotte made eight free throws, winning the game 68-63.
If you gamble, this is going to happen to you. "I honestly don't even watch much college basketball anymore," Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com, who helps me put together the Sweat Barometer below, emailed when I asked about bad beats. "The end of games just make you sick. Looking at the play-by-play is about the most I will do to see how I got screwed."
After the Seahawks-Packers debacle, I asked Ed Salmons of the Las Vegas Hotel if he could remember seeing a beat as bad as that one. He laughed, probably at me, and said, "Don't forget: Somebody won that game too." And he is right, people who lose whine louder than the people who win. Misery loves company, and a bad beat is a bonding experience. No one likes a winner who tells the story of how he scored a couple nickels because some dude from Charlotte sank eight free throws.
We prefer the story of this guy, profiled in The New York Times after the Iona game, who lost out on $1,600 after his $40, six-team parlay went kaplooey. At the end of the day, it hurts a lot more to feel like we had it right, to feel like, for once in our lives, we were smarter than the average bookmaker, only to have fate or teenagers or referees stick their noses where they don't belong.
"I had Duke in the Belk Bowl," Teddy Covers emailed me. "I had Seattle on 'Monday Night Football' against Green Bay. Yes, I enjoyed the Seahawks miracle win, but the Blue Devils loss felt far, far worse than the Seahawks cover felt good."
That is some seriously damaged psychology, the kind reserved for masochistic coaches in hoodies, NBA players who begin plotting revenge the second they are injured and you, the fine degenerates who read this column and remember getting trampled like you do your wedding days, the birth of your children and that time you met that girl in the back of that, well, you know what I mean. You never forget that feeling. Here's a sampling of the tweets most worthy of mention, either because they represent what many people submitted or because they were very specific and painful. Below that list is the final Sweat Barometer of the regular season. Thanks for the memories (links provided to recap each moment when possible).
From David Wall @vidslaw
"Bledsoes Pats over Bills, cover when Bills walk off field in protest, allowing Vinatieri to run in 2 pt conversion." Link
From Byeweekpicks.com @Byeweekpicks
"Duke v. Connecticut April 2004. Duhon hitting 'meaningless' 38 footer for ultimate backdoor cover, but straight up loss." Link
From Chris Frank *@ChrisFrankVA
"UConn Utah St.: '00 NCAA t'mnt. Rick Mahorn's nephew hits otherwise meaningless 3 at buzzer, cuts lead to 8. Spread was 8.5."
I wrote about this one in my book, "The Odds." It was one of the few games during the season I spent in Vegas where I blindly bet whatever Alan Boston was doing. He had $20,000 on Utah State; I had $300. When Rick Mahorn's nephew hit the shot, I lost it because I was so excited. Boston calmly picked up the phone and put his $20,000 back in play.
From Heath Atkinson *@heathatkinson
"2011 S. Carolina at Miss St (the game Lattimore got hurt). SC took a safety on the last play and blew the -2.5 cover. F : 14-12" Link
From Barry Goodrich *@BarryGoodrich1
"Don't forget that Wisconsin-UNLV football game when lights went out in fourth quarter." Link
My personal favorite is this particularly stinging memory of a Chicago Blitz USFL loss from @14ernie:
"USFL ChiBlitz runs back kickoff to cover/3 seconds left Blitz on-side kick other team picks it up untouched for cover td.OUCH!"
Now, enjoy the Sweat Barometer, which is guaranteed* to protect you from bad beats, bad decisions and bad memories. *Not really.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Sweat Barometer Ranking Top 25 (minimum 18 games ATS)[/h]
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<!-- end inline 1 --><!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Remaining AP Top 25 (minimum 18 games ATS)[/h]
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<!-- end inline 2 --><!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Bottom 5 (minimum 18 games ATS)[/h]
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Chad Millman
ESPN INSIDER
It was 1:35 on Thursday afternoon. At that moment, I was still getting questions about Iona's bad beat on Monday, still collecting sob stories of folks who had the Gaels minus-4.
It will come as no surprise to anyone that I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer. But it was at that moment, as the anxiety of closing the magazine's MLB preview issue came to an end and I realized that I had a column due Friday morning, that I thought: Bad Beats! That could be a column. Brilliant.
Since I am lazy, the first thing I thought was: Let's see if Twitter can help me. So at exactly 1:35 on Thursday afternoon, I sent out this tweet: "im compiling a bad beat (or miracle cover) list for tomorrow's column. anyone have anything particularly ugly (or lucky) let me know."
Within an hour, no joke, 60 minutes, I had more than 100 responses. And we will get to those. I also emailed a bunch of bookmakers and wiseguys to get their favorite bad beat stories. Within those same 60 minutes, Edward Golden of Right Angle Sports, arguably the most influential college basketball handicapper in the country, responded:
"Look no further than today's Richmond game. Push under 131, and lost under 130.5. Crazy foul fest then multiple T's, 20 points in last 25 seconds. Just completely unreal to lose or push that in regulation."
While many of you were sending me boo-hoos about Duke football's collapse in the Belk Bowl (which I wrote about at the end of December) or the Dukie hoops team's Duhon-led liver twister against UConn in 2004, there was an honest-to-god moose on the loose in the game between Richmond and Charlotte at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn (because that is, naturally, where two teams from mid-Atlantic states play their conference tournament.)
In case you missed the ending, it happened almost exactly as Edward described it. With 24 seconds left, Richmond led 57-56 following a Charlotte layup. Over the next 19 seconds, the teams traded baskets and Richmond took a 63-60 lead as five seconds showed on the clock. I'm not going to recap the whole game, you can read it here, but an intentional foul by Richmond to guard against a 3-pointer transitioned into a technical foul on Richmond when two players got tangled on the rebound of Charlotte's attempted free throws. And in those final five seconds, Charlotte made eight free throws, winning the game 68-63.
If you gamble, this is going to happen to you. "I honestly don't even watch much college basketball anymore," Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com, who helps me put together the Sweat Barometer below, emailed when I asked about bad beats. "The end of games just make you sick. Looking at the play-by-play is about the most I will do to see how I got screwed."
After the Seahawks-Packers debacle, I asked Ed Salmons of the Las Vegas Hotel if he could remember seeing a beat as bad as that one. He laughed, probably at me, and said, "Don't forget: Somebody won that game too." And he is right, people who lose whine louder than the people who win. Misery loves company, and a bad beat is a bonding experience. No one likes a winner who tells the story of how he scored a couple nickels because some dude from Charlotte sank eight free throws.
We prefer the story of this guy, profiled in The New York Times after the Iona game, who lost out on $1,600 after his $40, six-team parlay went kaplooey. At the end of the day, it hurts a lot more to feel like we had it right, to feel like, for once in our lives, we were smarter than the average bookmaker, only to have fate or teenagers or referees stick their noses where they don't belong.
"I had Duke in the Belk Bowl," Teddy Covers emailed me. "I had Seattle on 'Monday Night Football' against Green Bay. Yes, I enjoyed the Seahawks miracle win, but the Blue Devils loss felt far, far worse than the Seahawks cover felt good."
That is some seriously damaged psychology, the kind reserved for masochistic coaches in hoodies, NBA players who begin plotting revenge the second they are injured and you, the fine degenerates who read this column and remember getting trampled like you do your wedding days, the birth of your children and that time you met that girl in the back of that, well, you know what I mean. You never forget that feeling. Here's a sampling of the tweets most worthy of mention, either because they represent what many people submitted or because they were very specific and painful. Below that list is the final Sweat Barometer of the regular season. Thanks for the memories (links provided to recap each moment when possible).
From David Wall @vidslaw
"Bledsoes Pats over Bills, cover when Bills walk off field in protest, allowing Vinatieri to run in 2 pt conversion." Link
From Byeweekpicks.com @Byeweekpicks
"Duke v. Connecticut April 2004. Duhon hitting 'meaningless' 38 footer for ultimate backdoor cover, but straight up loss." Link
From Chris Frank *@ChrisFrankVA
"UConn Utah St.: '00 NCAA t'mnt. Rick Mahorn's nephew hits otherwise meaningless 3 at buzzer, cuts lead to 8. Spread was 8.5."
I wrote about this one in my book, "The Odds." It was one of the few games during the season I spent in Vegas where I blindly bet whatever Alan Boston was doing. He had $20,000 on Utah State; I had $300. When Rick Mahorn's nephew hit the shot, I lost it because I was so excited. Boston calmly picked up the phone and put his $20,000 back in play.
From Heath Atkinson *@heathatkinson
"2011 S. Carolina at Miss St (the game Lattimore got hurt). SC took a safety on the last play and blew the -2.5 cover. F : 14-12" Link
From Barry Goodrich *@BarryGoodrich1
"Don't forget that Wisconsin-UNLV football game when lights went out in fourth quarter." Link
My personal favorite is this particularly stinging memory of a Chicago Blitz USFL loss from @14ernie:
"USFL ChiBlitz runs back kickoff to cover/3 seconds left Blitz on-side kick other team picks it up untouched for cover td.OUCH!"
Now, enjoy the Sweat Barometer, which is guaranteed* to protect you from bad beats, bad decisions and bad memories. *Not really.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Sweat Barometer Ranking Top 25 (minimum 18 games ATS)[/h]
| Team (AP Rank) | SU | ATS | ATS/H | ATS/A | SB | Closing Line | RPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes (9) | 24-6-0 | 17-8-2 | 10-2-1 | 7-4-1 | 4.44 | -5.26 | 4 |
| Appalachian State Mountaineers | 15-16-0 | 17-9-0 | 5-5-0 | 10-4-0 | 4.12 | 5.23 | 259 |
| Towson Tigers | 18-13-0 | 15-10-0 | 4-6-0 | 11-4-0 | 3.94 | 3.58 | 154 |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 21-10-0 | 17-11-0 | 13-3-0 | 4-8-0 | 3.88 | -5.02 | 69 |
| Gonzaga Bulldogs (1) | 31-2-0 | 17-12-2 | 9-6-0 | 5-4-2 | 3.76 | -13.4 | 5 |
| Denver Pioneers | 21-8-0 | 17-10-0 | 9-4-0 | 8-6-0 | 3.46 | -5.8 | 57 |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 23-8-0 | 15-13-0 | 6-4-0 | 7-9-0 | 3.38 | -3.45 | 35 |
| Georgetown Hoyas (5) | 24-5-0 | 15-9-1 | 7-6-0 | 6-2-1 | 3.36 | -3.6 | 10 |
| Florida Gators (13) | 24-6-0 | 15-12-0 | 8-6-0 | 7-6-0 | 3.3 | -13.63 | 7 |
| Weber State Wildcats | 24-5-0 | 14-11-1 | 6-5-1 | 8-6-0 | 3.19 | -7.27 | 94 |
| Oklahoma State Cowboys (14) | 23-7-0 | 15-11-3 | 8-6-2 | 5-5-0 | 3.14 | -6.72 | 23 |
| North Dakota State Bison | 24-9-0 | 17-12-0 | 6-4-0 | 8-7-0 | 3.12 | -7.74 | 71 |
| Kent State Golden Flashes | 19-12-0 | 15-9-2 | 5-6-2 | 10-3-0 | 2.96 | -0.08 | 142 |
| Houston Cougars | 19-11-0 | 11-9-1 | 6-4-0 | 5-4-1 | 2.95 | 1.76 | 196 |
| Colorado State Rams | 25-7-0 | 13-14-1 | 6-6-1 | 5-7-0 | 2.89 | -5.39 | 15 |
| Louisville Cardinals (4) | 26-5-0 | 17-12-2 | 7-7-2 | 8-3-0 | 2.73 | -12.82 | 3 |
| UC Davis Aggies | 14-16-0 | 16-13-1 | 4-8-1 | 10-5-0' | 2.72 | 2.92 | 227 |
| Fresno State Bulldogs | 11-19-0 | 18-10-0 | 6-6-0 | 11-4-0 | 2.71 | 5.96 | 123 |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 28-5-0 | 15-14-1 | 11-2-0 | 4-11-0 | 2.65 | -9.68 | 29 |
| Villanova Wildcats | 20-12-0 | 20-9-0 | 10-5-0 | 9-3-0 | 2.64 | 0.5 | 53 |
| Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 26-5-0 | 16-10-1 | 8-4-0 | 6-6-1 | 2.57 | -6.24 | 46 |
| Oklahoma Sooners | 20-10-0 | 17-9-0 | 10-2-0 | 5-6-0 | 2.56 | -2.29 | 33 |
| Eastern Kentucky Colonels | 24-9-0 | 13-10-1 | 3-6-1 | 9-3-0 | 2.52 | -2.23 | 72 |
| Florida International Golden Panthers | 18-14-0 | 15-10-0 | 7-3-0 | 6-7-0 | 2.52 | 3.36 | 117 |
| South Dakota Coyotes | 10-20-0 | 15-13-0 | 5-5-0 | 8-7-0 | 2.52 | 7.09 | 236 |
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<!-- end inline 1 --><!-- begin inline 2 -->[h=4]Remaining AP Top 25 (minimum 18 games ATS)[/h]
| Team (AP Rank) | SU | ATS | ATS/H | ATS/A | SB | Closing Line | RPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Louis Billikens (16) | 24-6-0 | 18-10-0 | 11-6-0 | 6-4-0 | 2.52 | -7.84 | 27 |
| Indiana Hoosiers (3) | 26-5-0 | 15-12-1 | 9-6-1 | 5-4-0 | 2.43 | -14.79 | 6 |
| Duke Blue Devils (2) | 27-4-0 | 17-14-0 | 8-8-0 | 3-6-0 | 2.27 | -11.31 | 1 |
| Creighton Bluejays (23) | 27-7-0 | 17-14-1 | 7-8-0 | 6-6-0 | 1.83 | -8.83 | 25 |
| Marquette Golden Eagles (12) | 23-7-0 | 13-13-0 | 7-5-0 | 4-7-0 | 1.52 | -3.44 | 11 |
| Pittsburgh Panthers (17) | 24-7-0 | 12-12-0 | 5-8-0 | 6-3-0 | 1.38 | -8.21 | 40 |
| Kansas Jayhawks (7) | 26-5-0 | 15-14-1 | 12-7-0 | 3-6-1 | 0.98 | -11.75 | 8 |
| Kansas State Wildcats (11) | 25-6-0 | 12-13-1 | 8-5-0 | 4-6-1 | 0.71 | -5.33 | 20 |
| Michigan Wolverines (6) | 25-6-0 | 14-15-0 | 8-8-0 | 3-7-0 | 0.29 | -10.78 | 12 |
| Memphis Tigers (20) | 27-4-0 | 13-15-0 | 6-9-0 | 6-4-0 | 0.25 | -10.18 | 16 |
| New Mexico Lobos (15) | 27-5-0 | 17-11-2 | 8-4-2 | 7-5-0 | 0.08 | -6.55 | 2 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes (10) | 23-7-0 | 16-12-0 | 10-6-0 | 5-5-0 | 0.07 | -10.46 | 14 |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish (24) | 24-8-0 | 15-14-0 | 8-8-0 | 4-5-0 | 0 | -6.14 | 44 |
| Wisconsin Badgers (22) | 21-10-0 | 12-17-0 | 8-8-0 | 4-7-0 | -0.05 | -7.91 | 41 |
| Michigan State Spartans (8) | 24-7-0 | 13-14-1 | 7-8-0 | 5-6-1 | -0.11 | -6.79 | 9 |
| Virginia Commonwealth Rams (25) | 24-7-0 | 9-15-0 | 7-5-0 | 1-8-0 | -0.48 | -8.98 | 26 |
| Arizona Wildcats (18) | 24-6-0 | 13-15-0 | 8-6-0 | 4-7-0 | -0.79 | -10.25 | 13 |
| Syracuse Orange (19) | 24-8-0 | 15-13-0 | 10-6-0 | 5-6-0 | -1 | -10.46 | 17 |
| UCLA Bruins (21) | 23-8-0 | 13-17-0 | 8-10-0 | 5-4-0 | -1.62 | -6.85 | 30 |
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<!-- end inline 2 --><!-- begin inline 3 -->[h=4]Bottom 5 (minimum 18 games ATS)[/h]
| Team (AP Rank) | SU | ATS | ATS/H | ATS/A | SB | Closing Line | RPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland State Vikings | 14-18-0 | 8-18-1 | 5-5-1 | 3-13-0 | -3.91 | 5.61 | 200 |
| North Texas Mean Green | 12-20-0 | 12-15-0 | 6-5-0 | 4-9-0 | -4 | 0.37 | 252 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd | 13-19-0 | 7-19-1 | 4-8-1 | 2-11 | -5.15 | 2.07 | 202 |
| Furman Paladins | 7-24-0 | 9-17-0 | 4-7-0 | 4-9-0 | -5.21 | 7.79 | 343 |
| IUPUI Jaguars | 6-26-0 | 7-21-0 | 1-10-0 | 5-9-0 | -5.73 | 7.48 | 327 |
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