[h=1]Mets, Yanks both could be losers[/h][h=3]We could be looking at the worst year for Big Apple baseball since 1992[/h]By Paul Swydan | FanGraphs
ESPN INSIDER
It's been 12 years since the New York Mets and New York Yankees squared off in the Subway Series. In that span, both teams have dominated at times, and struggled at times. But it's rare for both New York teams to struggle at the same time. Yet that is the scenario we may be looking at this season.
Just how rare is it for both New York teams to play poorly at the same time? Since the Mets sprang into existence in 1962, the teams have posted losing records in the same season only six times -- 1965, 1966, 1967, 1982, 1991 and 1992. Six times in 51 years: That's a pretty good track record, especially when you consider that the Mets were still mired in their expansion doldrums those first few seasons.
Even when both teams miss the playoffs in the same season, they give you a reason to cheer. The previous time that happened was 2008, when each squad went 89-73 and was in playoff contention until the end of the season. The previous time both teams landed in the bottom half of the league in terms of WAR was 1991, and 2013 has a chance to be that bleak.
<OFFER></OFFER>Heading into spring training, both teams were going to have massive holes. The Yankees decided to punt on a catcher this season, and the Mets likewise in the outfield. It's been suggested that some of the Mets outfielders will be late bloomers, and that may be true, but to use that as justification for the Mets' lack of activity would be to view the world through orange-and-blue glasses.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Ugly projection[/h]Using his ZiPS projection system, Dan Szymborski projected the odds that the Mets and Yanks fall below a certain win threshold. There's better than a 1-in-4 shot that both are below .500.
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None of the seven outfielders expected to play for the Mets this year -- Mike Baxter, Andrew Brown, Marlon Byrd, Collin Cowgill, Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Jordany Valdespin -- will be younger than 25 this season, and collectively the bunch has just 19.1 career WAR. That may not sound all that terrible, but keep in mind that 16.4 of that total comes from Byrd, who washed out of two teams after playing just 48 games last year at the age of 34. Duda, in fact, has a negative career WAR. Is it possible that one or two of the seven end up being average, two-win players this year? Sure, anything's possible.
The story is much the same with the Yankees' catching situation. Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart and Austin Romine won't be reminding Yankees fans of Jorge Posada. None of the trio has more than a 2.0 WAR for his career, and while you could squint and still call Romine a prospect, he is now 24 and his development has stalled at Triple-A. One reason in particular for his troubles has been persistent back problems. As you might imagine, back problems and squatting behind home plate 120 to 150 times a game don't go well together.
But these two major issues were well known heading into the spring. Since then, both teams have seen their share of maladies, from Johan Santana reporting out of shape, to Frank Francisco's proclamation that he was at "zero percent," to David Wright having to leave the WBC with a mystery rib injury. The Yankees had their bad breaks with Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. Injuries can and do happen regularly in baseball, but for two teams not long on depth to begin with, these injuries paint a gloomy outlook.
It doesn't necessarily get any brighter when you consider the players who have been fine to date healthwise. Andy Pettitte will be 41 this season, and he hasn't played a full season since 2009. The odds of him making 30 starts this year are iffy at best. Likewise for newly minted Mets hurler Shaun Marcum, who has made 30 starts just twice in the past six seasons.
Even some of the veterans you can count on to be healthy haven't produced as expected. After posting a 4.7 WAR in 2010, Ichiro Suzuki has tallied just a 3.0 WAR across the past two campaigns, and none of the five projections housed on his FanGraphs' player page paint a scenario in which he gets even close to that four-win level that he used to regularly reach, if not top. Derek Jeter and Kevin Youkilis are still decent hitters, but the left side of the Yankees' infield will be quite sieve-like.
Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projection system currently has the Yankees pegged for roughly 83 wins, with the Mets sitting at 66. The Yankees still have Robinson Cano and CC Sabathia, and the Mets still have Wright, Jon Niese and a cadre of highly touted prospects who are likely to graduate to the majors this season, so it's not crazy to think they can't outplay their projections. But for the first time since 1992, there is a very good chance that both New York teams will wind up below .500 at September's end.
ESPN INSIDER
It's been 12 years since the New York Mets and New York Yankees squared off in the Subway Series. In that span, both teams have dominated at times, and struggled at times. But it's rare for both New York teams to struggle at the same time. Yet that is the scenario we may be looking at this season.
Just how rare is it for both New York teams to play poorly at the same time? Since the Mets sprang into existence in 1962, the teams have posted losing records in the same season only six times -- 1965, 1966, 1967, 1982, 1991 and 1992. Six times in 51 years: That's a pretty good track record, especially when you consider that the Mets were still mired in their expansion doldrums those first few seasons.
Even when both teams miss the playoffs in the same season, they give you a reason to cheer. The previous time that happened was 2008, when each squad went 89-73 and was in playoff contention until the end of the season. The previous time both teams landed in the bottom half of the league in terms of WAR was 1991, and 2013 has a chance to be that bleak.
<OFFER></OFFER>Heading into spring training, both teams were going to have massive holes. The Yankees decided to punt on a catcher this season, and the Mets likewise in the outfield. It's been suggested that some of the Mets outfielders will be late bloomers, and that may be true, but to use that as justification for the Mets' lack of activity would be to view the world through orange-and-blue glasses.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]Ugly projection[/h]Using his ZiPS projection system, Dan Szymborski projected the odds that the Mets and Yanks fall below a certain win threshold. There's better than a 1-in-4 shot that both are below .500.
| Both less than ... | Chance |
|---|---|
| 81 wins | 26% |
| 75 wins | 5% |
| 70 wins | 0.5% |
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None of the seven outfielders expected to play for the Mets this year -- Mike Baxter, Andrew Brown, Marlon Byrd, Collin Cowgill, Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Jordany Valdespin -- will be younger than 25 this season, and collectively the bunch has just 19.1 career WAR. That may not sound all that terrible, but keep in mind that 16.4 of that total comes from Byrd, who washed out of two teams after playing just 48 games last year at the age of 34. Duda, in fact, has a negative career WAR. Is it possible that one or two of the seven end up being average, two-win players this year? Sure, anything's possible.
The story is much the same with the Yankees' catching situation. Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart and Austin Romine won't be reminding Yankees fans of Jorge Posada. None of the trio has more than a 2.0 WAR for his career, and while you could squint and still call Romine a prospect, he is now 24 and his development has stalled at Triple-A. One reason in particular for his troubles has been persistent back problems. As you might imagine, back problems and squatting behind home plate 120 to 150 times a game don't go well together.
But these two major issues were well known heading into the spring. Since then, both teams have seen their share of maladies, from Johan Santana reporting out of shape, to Frank Francisco's proclamation that he was at "zero percent," to David Wright having to leave the WBC with a mystery rib injury. The Yankees had their bad breaks with Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. Injuries can and do happen regularly in baseball, but for two teams not long on depth to begin with, these injuries paint a gloomy outlook.
It doesn't necessarily get any brighter when you consider the players who have been fine to date healthwise. Andy Pettitte will be 41 this season, and he hasn't played a full season since 2009. The odds of him making 30 starts this year are iffy at best. Likewise for newly minted Mets hurler Shaun Marcum, who has made 30 starts just twice in the past six seasons.
Even some of the veterans you can count on to be healthy haven't produced as expected. After posting a 4.7 WAR in 2010, Ichiro Suzuki has tallied just a 3.0 WAR across the past two campaigns, and none of the five projections housed on his FanGraphs' player page paint a scenario in which he gets even close to that four-win level that he used to regularly reach, if not top. Derek Jeter and Kevin Youkilis are still decent hitters, but the left side of the Yankees' infield will be quite sieve-like.
Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projection system currently has the Yankees pegged for roughly 83 wins, with the Mets sitting at 66. The Yankees still have Robinson Cano and CC Sabathia, and the Mets still have Wright, Jon Niese and a cadre of highly touted prospects who are likely to graduate to the majors this season, so it's not crazy to think they can't outplay their projections. But for the first time since 1992, there is a very good chance that both New York teams will wind up below .500 at September's end.
