Selection Sunday Bracket Math

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[h=1]Selection Sunday Bracket Math[/h][h=3]S-curve updates: KU jumps Duke for No. 1 seed; UNC, Saint Louis could rise[/h]
By Joe Lunardi | ESPN Insider
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This edition of "Bracket Math" includes games through Saturday, March 16, and will be updated throughout Selection Sunday. Rankings reflect an up-to-date S-curve from yours truly, posing as one hypothetical member of the NCAA men's basketball committee.
Below you will find our latest S-curve, which we will update throughout the day, but first, here is a look at things that can still happen on Selection Sunday:
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• Miami will have a strong argument to move up if it adds an ACC tournament title to its ACC regular-season crown. However, I believe both the Hurricanes and Duke would be No. 2 seeds in that scenario.
• With a win today, Saint Louis can pass Marquette for the last "protected" seed as No. 16 overall and a No. 4 in the final field. The half-court Billikens face speedy VCU in a compelling Atlantic 10 final.
• North Carolina can move as high as a No. 5 seed if the Tar Heels take down Miami for the ACC tournament championship. UNC is currently No. 25 overall, the highest No. 7 seed.
• An Ole Miss win in the SEC title game would make the Rebels an automatic qualifier and drop one team on our board -- currently, that would be Saint Mary's -- to the "First Four" in Dayton.
[h=3]The Bracket[/h]This is where I currently project teams will fall when the bracket is finalized later today. Remember, the S-curve flows left to right, then right to left, then back again as you read down the chart.
ALL CAPS: Highest remaining seed or automatic qualifier (AQ in BOLD).
GREEN: Teams with tourney odds of 90 percent or better through games of March 15
YELLOW: Last four in (would play March 19-20 in Dayton, Ohio)
GOLD: Lowest four automatic bids (would play March 19-20 in Dayton, Ohio)
RED: First four out (teams 69-72 on the S-curve)
PURPLE: Next four out (teams 73-76 on the S-curve)
[h=4]The full S-curve[/h]
1. LOUISVILLE2. KANSAS3. GONZAGA4. Indiana
8. FLORIDA7. OHIO STATE6. Duke5. MIAMI (Fla.)
9. Georgetown10. Michigan State11. NEW MEXICO12. Kansas State
16. SAINT LOUIS15. Marquette14. Syracuse13. Michigan
17. Wisconsin18. Arizona19. Oklahoma State20. Notre Dame
24. Butler23. Vcu22. Ucla21. Pittsburgh
25. North Carolina26. MEMPHIS27. Unlv28. CREIGHTON
32. Missouri31. Colorado State30. NC State29. OREGON
33. Illinois34. San Diego State35. Minnesota36. Colorado
40. Villanova39. Temple38. Cincinnati37. Iowa State
41. Oklahoma42. California43. Wichita State44. Saint Mary's
48. Ole Miss47. Middle Tennessee46. Boise State45. BELMONT
49. La Salle50. AKRON51. BUCKNELL52. DAVIDSON
56. HARVARD55. S. DAKOTA ST54. VALPARAISO53. N. MEXICO ST.
57. IONA58. NW STATE61. PACIFIC60. MONTANA
64. JAMES MADISON63. ALBANY62. W. KENTUCKY61. FGCU
65. LONG ISLAND66. SOUTHERN U67. NC A&T68. LIBERTY
72. Southern Miss71. Maryland70. Virginia69. Tennessee
73. Kentucky74. N/A75. N/A76. N/A

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[h=3]The Math[/h]Take our "solid" at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 90 percent or better) and you now have 45 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers and that's another 19 spots. All told we have 64 of the 68 spots accounted for, with only four up for grabs among current "Bubble" teams.
[h=3]The bubble (9 teams for 4 spots)[/h]IN (4, in S-curve order):
46. Boise State, 47. Middle Tennessee, 48. Ole Miss, 49. La Salle
OUT (5, in S-curve order):
69. Tennessee, 70. Virginia, 71. Maryland, 72. Southern Miss, 73. Kentucky
[h=3]Conference breakdown[/h]• Big East (8)
• Big Ten (7)
• Atlantic 10 (5)
• Big 12 (5)
• Pac-12 (5)
• Mountain West (5)
• ACC (4)
• SEC (3)
• Missouri Valley (2)
• West Coast (2)
• Sun Belt (2)
[h=3]NIT automatic qualifiers[/h]• Charleston Southern/BIG SOUTH
• Mercer/ATLANTIC SUN
• Middle Tennessee/SUN BELT*
• Niagara/MAAC
• Norfolk State/MEAC
• Northeastern/COLONIAL
• Robert Morris/NEC
• S.F. Austin/SOUTHLAND
• Stony Brook/AMERICA EAST
* if no NCAA at-large bid
 

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