[h=1]Betting the Midwest Region[/h][h=3]Picking ATS winners for every game in the Midwest Region[/h]
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
Who should be a No. 1 seed? Who's on the bubble? Who got an easy draw? Who was snubbed?
Who cares? It's time to put all that talk from the past month or so behind us. None of those philosophical discussions matter anymore. The teams have to perform in the matchups that have been determined by the selection committee, and we as handicappers/bettors can only concern ourselves with the games in front of us. The NCAA tournament begins in earnest on Thursday (OK, there's the "First Four" on Tuesday and Wednesday night, but we know it really begins with the Thursday matchups that tip off our tournament brackets).
I went 12-8 (60 percent) against the spread the past month in my picks columns on ESPN Insider, but that's ancient history as well, since all anyone will care about these next three weekends is how I fare in the Big Dance. Those who have been following me (or were present during the NFL season) know that I'm an underdog-or-pass bettor. I believe it is important to be selective in your wagering, and I take some heat for passing on so many games. However, I also know that as much as we all try to be disciplined, this is the NCAA tournament, and most of us will end up playing more games than we should.
So, I'm going to pass on passing and make a pick in each game this Thursday and Friday in the Midwest and West regionals. I'll mark my best bets with an asterisk, and those are the ones I'll be betting with my own money here in Vegas. You'll note they're all underdogs, and you can assume that if I'm "picking" a favorite, I'm probably not cracking open my wallet on that pick, but that's just me.
So let's get to the games (and we'll add the three games involving matchups from the First Four when the lines become available and I make my decisions).
Good luck and enjoy the madness.
[h=3]No. 1 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 16 NC AT&T/Liberty winner[/h]
Vegas consensus line: TBD
PickCenter breakdown
Tuley's Take coming Wednesday morning after Tuesday's play-in game.
The ATS pick: TBD
[h=3]No. 8 Colorado State Rams versus No. 9 Missouri Tigers[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Missouri minus-3
PickCenter breakdown
This is just one of two "second-round" games (I'm starting a petition to make this the "first round" again since that's what we all still call it) where the lower seed is favored (No. 11 Minnesota minus-3 versus No. 6 UCLA is the other). This is setting up a lot of "Vegas disagrees with the selection committee" type comments on how the oddsmakers think Missouri is stronger -- but that's only part of it.
<OFFER>Oddsmakers and then the sports books not only set lines based on how the teams compare in power ratings, but also in anticipation of how the public is going to bet. In this case, I believe the oddsmakers figured that despite the seedings, and despite the fact the Mountain West Conference is strong this season and the SEC is down, people would still favor the big-conference school over the mid-major. Based on several bet-tracking sites showing more support for Missouri and the fact this line hasn't budged, that looks to be the case. However, I think the selection committee got this one right: I think Colorado State is the stronger team from the better conference and should be favored, albeit slightly. Still, I'll take the bonus points just in case.
The ATS pick: Colorado State*
[h=3]No. 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys versus No. 12 Oregon Ducks[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Oklahoma State minus-3
PickCenter breakdown
This is one of the marquee matchups of the first round (there, I said it -- let the revolution begin) with a lot of people believing the Pac-12 tournament champs are underseeded. But even if you believe NCAA selection committee chairman Mike Bobinski that the Ducks were an 11-seed but had to be bumped down due to other conflicts in the bracketing process, or if you think they should be even lower, this number still isn't enough to get me to take them. In fact, I think the value is on the balanced Oklahoma State team that is more than just Marcus Smart. I like the Cowboys a lot, but it's hard to make a case for them going far with such a brutal draw as they would likely have to face Saint Louis, then No. 1 overall seed Louisville and then probably either No. 2 Duke or No. 3 Michigan State to get to the Final Four.
The ATS pick: Oklahoma State
[h=3]No. 4 Saint Louis Billikens versus No. 13 New Mexico State Aggies[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Saint Louis minus-9
PickCenter breakdown
Saint Louis is another team that could make noise in the Midwest Regional, though it'll be tough on the same side of the bracket as Louisville (and Oklahoma State). It's tempting to take all these points in a game with a relatively low total of 122, but while the Billikens like to slow things down and are No. 9 in defensive efficiency, they're also 21-10 ATS -- so they've been adept at covering big numbers, too. Also, New Mexico State is expected to be without third-leading scorer Tyrone Watson (ankle).
The ATS pick: Saint Louis
[h=3]No. 6 Memphis Tigers versus No. 11 Middle Tennessee State/Saint Mary's winner[/h]
Vegas consensus line: TBD
PickCenter breakdown
Tuley's Take coming Wednesday morning after Tuesday's play-in game.
The ATS pick: TBD
[h=3]No. 3 Michigan State Spartans versus No. 14 Valparaiso Crusaders[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Michigan State minus-10
PickCenter breakdown
It's not usually wise to fade Tom Izzo in the NCAA tournament, but I'm taking a shot here. I don't care if Michigan State survives and advances, as long as it doesn't do it by more than 10 points. The key is Valpo leading scorer Ryan Broekhoff (15.8 PPG, 43 percent from beyond 3-point arc) and if he can get hot from the outside (I'm hoping he decides to be more of a ball hog in this game), as the Crusaders will almost certainly be outscored in the paint by the bigger, stronger and deeper Spartans.
The ATS pick: Valparaiso*
[h=3]No. 7 Creighton Bluejays versus No. 10 Cincinnati Bearcats[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Creighton minus-3
PickCenter breakdown
Speaking of star players, Creighton has junior forward Doug McDermott (23.1 PPG), but I'm going against him. On paper, this looks like two teams heading in opposite directions with Creighton 5-0 straight-up and ATS down the stretch including winning the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, while Cincinnati was 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS. However, that was in the Big East, and the losses included Georgetown twice, Louisville and Notre Dame. Still, with the difference in the quality of opposition, I'm a little surprised the mid-major school is still favored, though Creighton has been on a lot of people's radars this year. Cincy should use its advantage in the backcourt and keep McDermott from getting the ball or force him to come get it farther from the basket.
The ATS pick: Cincinnati*
[h=3]No. 2 Duke Blue Devils versus No. 15 Albany Great Danes[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Duke minus-18
PickCenter breakdown
Most of us remember Duke getting upset as a No. 2 seed last year against Lehigh, but Lehigh was better last season than Albany was this season (fifth in American East before winning the conference tourney) and Duke is better as well, especially since the return of Ryan Kelly. With Coach K sure to be in the Blue Devils' ears constantly about not allowing a repeat of last year's embarrassment, I can't see taking the points here.
The ATS pick: Duke
By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
Who should be a No. 1 seed? Who's on the bubble? Who got an easy draw? Who was snubbed?
Who cares? It's time to put all that talk from the past month or so behind us. None of those philosophical discussions matter anymore. The teams have to perform in the matchups that have been determined by the selection committee, and we as handicappers/bettors can only concern ourselves with the games in front of us. The NCAA tournament begins in earnest on Thursday (OK, there's the "First Four" on Tuesday and Wednesday night, but we know it really begins with the Thursday matchups that tip off our tournament brackets).
I went 12-8 (60 percent) against the spread the past month in my picks columns on ESPN Insider, but that's ancient history as well, since all anyone will care about these next three weekends is how I fare in the Big Dance. Those who have been following me (or were present during the NFL season) know that I'm an underdog-or-pass bettor. I believe it is important to be selective in your wagering, and I take some heat for passing on so many games. However, I also know that as much as we all try to be disciplined, this is the NCAA tournament, and most of us will end up playing more games than we should.
So, I'm going to pass on passing and make a pick in each game this Thursday and Friday in the Midwest and West regionals. I'll mark my best bets with an asterisk, and those are the ones I'll be betting with my own money here in Vegas. You'll note they're all underdogs, and you can assume that if I'm "picking" a favorite, I'm probably not cracking open my wallet on that pick, but that's just me.
So let's get to the games (and we'll add the three games involving matchups from the First Four when the lines become available and I make my decisions).
Good luck and enjoy the madness.
[h=3]BEST TITLE BETS | MIDWEST | WEST[/h]
[h=3]MIDWEST REGIONAL (in bracket order)[/h]
[h=3]MIDWEST REGIONAL (in bracket order)[/h]
[h=3]No. 1 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 16 NC AT&T/Liberty winner[/h]
Vegas consensus line: TBD
PickCenter breakdown
Tuley's Take coming Wednesday morning after Tuesday's play-in game.
The ATS pick: TBD
[h=3]No. 8 Colorado State Rams versus No. 9 Missouri Tigers[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Missouri minus-3
PickCenter breakdown
This is just one of two "second-round" games (I'm starting a petition to make this the "first round" again since that's what we all still call it) where the lower seed is favored (No. 11 Minnesota minus-3 versus No. 6 UCLA is the other). This is setting up a lot of "Vegas disagrees with the selection committee" type comments on how the oddsmakers think Missouri is stronger -- but that's only part of it.
<OFFER>Oddsmakers and then the sports books not only set lines based on how the teams compare in power ratings, but also in anticipation of how the public is going to bet. In this case, I believe the oddsmakers figured that despite the seedings, and despite the fact the Mountain West Conference is strong this season and the SEC is down, people would still favor the big-conference school over the mid-major. Based on several bet-tracking sites showing more support for Missouri and the fact this line hasn't budged, that looks to be the case. However, I think the selection committee got this one right: I think Colorado State is the stronger team from the better conference and should be favored, albeit slightly. Still, I'll take the bonus points just in case.
The ATS pick: Colorado State*
[h=3]No. 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys versus No. 12 Oregon Ducks[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Oklahoma State minus-3
PickCenter breakdown
This is one of the marquee matchups of the first round (there, I said it -- let the revolution begin) with a lot of people believing the Pac-12 tournament champs are underseeded. But even if you believe NCAA selection committee chairman Mike Bobinski that the Ducks were an 11-seed but had to be bumped down due to other conflicts in the bracketing process, or if you think they should be even lower, this number still isn't enough to get me to take them. In fact, I think the value is on the balanced Oklahoma State team that is more than just Marcus Smart. I like the Cowboys a lot, but it's hard to make a case for them going far with such a brutal draw as they would likely have to face Saint Louis, then No. 1 overall seed Louisville and then probably either No. 2 Duke or No. 3 Michigan State to get to the Final Four.
The ATS pick: Oklahoma State
[h=3]No. 4 Saint Louis Billikens versus No. 13 New Mexico State Aggies[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Saint Louis minus-9
PickCenter breakdown
Saint Louis is another team that could make noise in the Midwest Regional, though it'll be tough on the same side of the bracket as Louisville (and Oklahoma State). It's tempting to take all these points in a game with a relatively low total of 122, but while the Billikens like to slow things down and are No. 9 in defensive efficiency, they're also 21-10 ATS -- so they've been adept at covering big numbers, too. Also, New Mexico State is expected to be without third-leading scorer Tyrone Watson (ankle).
The ATS pick: Saint Louis
[h=3]No. 6 Memphis Tigers versus No. 11 Middle Tennessee State/Saint Mary's winner[/h]
Vegas consensus line: TBD
PickCenter breakdown
Tuley's Take coming Wednesday morning after Tuesday's play-in game.
The ATS pick: TBD
[h=3]No. 3 Michigan State Spartans versus No. 14 Valparaiso Crusaders[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Michigan State minus-10
PickCenter breakdown
It's not usually wise to fade Tom Izzo in the NCAA tournament, but I'm taking a shot here. I don't care if Michigan State survives and advances, as long as it doesn't do it by more than 10 points. The key is Valpo leading scorer Ryan Broekhoff (15.8 PPG, 43 percent from beyond 3-point arc) and if he can get hot from the outside (I'm hoping he decides to be more of a ball hog in this game), as the Crusaders will almost certainly be outscored in the paint by the bigger, stronger and deeper Spartans.
The ATS pick: Valparaiso*
[h=3]No. 7 Creighton Bluejays versus No. 10 Cincinnati Bearcats[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Creighton minus-3
PickCenter breakdown
Speaking of star players, Creighton has junior forward Doug McDermott (23.1 PPG), but I'm going against him. On paper, this looks like two teams heading in opposite directions with Creighton 5-0 straight-up and ATS down the stretch including winning the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, while Cincinnati was 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS. However, that was in the Big East, and the losses included Georgetown twice, Louisville and Notre Dame. Still, with the difference in the quality of opposition, I'm a little surprised the mid-major school is still favored, though Creighton has been on a lot of people's radars this year. Cincy should use its advantage in the backcourt and keep McDermott from getting the ball or force him to come get it farther from the basket.
The ATS pick: Cincinnati*
[h=3]No. 2 Duke Blue Devils versus No. 15 Albany Great Danes[/h]
Vegas consensus line: Duke minus-18
PickCenter breakdown
Most of us remember Duke getting upset as a No. 2 seed last year against Lehigh, but Lehigh was better last season than Albany was this season (fifth in American East before winning the conference tourney) and Duke is better as well, especially since the return of Ryan Kelly. With Coach K sure to be in the Blue Devils' ears constantly about not allowing a repeat of last year's embarrassment, I can't see taking the points here.
The ATS pick: Duke
