DAVE ESSLER
Saturday Cliff Notes - Bracketology II
Butler-Marquette: Let's look at the perception of these teams first. Butler played TOUGh when they needed to, and IMO that was far more of a "Brad Stevens" thing than a talent discrepancy with Bucknell. This Bison actually came from WAY down to take a six point lead in the second half, and against a team like Marquette, Butler will simply not get away with that. Marquette is lucky to have advanced, BUT, they advanced, and almost every team, even the eventual national champion, has a game they "coulda/shoulda" lost. So, perhaps it's Marquette that's a bit under valued here. Davidson's style was truly one we knew would give them trouble. Butler seemingly plays right into what Marquette will want to do. However, the Bulldogs do have a significant size advantage that may negate some of Marquette's rebounding. Note I said "may", because I do worry that if Smith gets in foul trouble that Butler may be screwed, and with the Golden Eagles pounding it inside all night, that would be a concern backing Butler.
Colorado State-Louisville: It's always tough to fade Louisville, who have won about eight or ten straight in convincing fashion. However, see paragraph one where I say that every team has at least one game they could lose but don't, and CSU does have the ingredients to stay within this number. People may look at CSU and think "well, they beat a sloppy Tiger team", which is true, but they MORE than beat them, they dismantled them. Louisville is certainly going to want to bang inside, and that does indeed play right into CSU's strength, and it's real difficult for me to NOT take a team that scores as many points from the line than the Rams do. Over the course of 40 minutes, those add up. I would worry that CSU doesn't turn teams over that much, and obviously Louisville does. But, I looked at what CSU was able to do to Wyoming (twice) this season, and think that perhaps there is a chance. I do know that Wyoming had their share of issues, but they do play a similarly tough defense, as does Fresno who CSU had zero issues with at Fresno. Bottom line here is that Louisville would have no problem slowing down a team like Missouri or another fast paced, athletic team, but that's not CSU, who has the roster to play most any style.
Memphis-Michigan State: We'd (or I would) obviously try to make a case for Memphis and taking points, or at least that would certainly be my inclination. But, I do come back to them playing in the C-USA, which is an issue for me, and I do go back to the fact that they simply didn't beat a good team out or really in conference play this season. But, winning and covering are two different things. I suspect that were it not "Memphis" that this line would be several points higher, so the value may well lie with the Spartans, especially since they're basically playing a home game. My concern with backing the Spartans is that they can be prone to turning it over, and obviously the Tigers D can create them. On the flip side, it may be tough to back the team that really seems to struggle at the line at times and/or not get there enough, and that would be Memphis. State can also be prone to blocked shots, and that's a strength of Memphis' defense. Since we know that the Spartans are far more capable of slowing the game down than Memphis is of speeding it up, I'd have to think the under is the best play in this one, or at least the safest.
Michigan-VCU: Obviously another home game for Michigan, so that's a point or two or three that would be in their favor built into this line. Teams that HAVE beat Michigan have had upper echelon defenses, such as Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Indiana. Michigan fares better against the athletic teams that want to get up and down the floor, such as Iowa, Arkansas, and NC State, and that's exactly what VCU wants to do. My instinct is that because VCU simply doesn't have the elite defense that most of the team the Wolverines have faced, is that in the end Michigan wins this game. Since neither team was really tested much, it's tough to get a read on how they'll handle a pressure situation yet. It's always tough for me to back a team like VCU who rely so heavily on the three point shot, especially away from home and against a team who's strength on defense may well be on the perimeter (Michigan). But, we've got the team that forces the most turnovers (VCU) against the team (Michigan) that forces the most. Is this where the youth and inexperience shows up, or is this really still a home game. Hard to fade Shaka Smart when it comes to quick-turn around preparation, and although VCU's defense doesn't have the stats that the Wolverines do, I might contend that they played more offensive minded teams in the A-10, and may be hard pressed not to take the points in what may well be a last possession game.
Witchita State-Gonzaga: Even with the Shockers blowout of Pittsburgh, they're still being disrespected here in light of how Gonzaga had to struggle with a #16 seed. Especially given that their relative strength of schedules are nearly identical, and the Shockers have more experience and less expectations, at least in the betting public's mind. My instinct says that if you want to give me a team that can beat everyone but Creighton and +6.5 points, we should take it. If we make that bet, one thing I do like about Witchita is that they're a bit more versatile on offense, whereas Gonzaga is for more of an interior team. Normally, I'd like that, but in this game Orukpe to take up some space and some fouls against the two bigs for the Zags. In the Zags last game they let Southern shoot 10-23 from behind the arc, but what would really concern me more is that Southern had eight blocked shots to NONE for Gonzaga. And Gonzaga shot 40% from behind the arc, which I just don't see Witchita allowing to happen. They may even concede the inside as long as they can keep the three's in check. Either way, I can't lay those points to a good team like the Shockers. If Gonzaga wakes up and plays to their potential, so be it, but until they do I am not betting on it. Too much of a price to pay for me.
Havard-Arizona: Well, the trendy Belmont pick went down in flames, which for now is fine because we weren't on Belmont and we do have a future on Arizona to win the whole thing. What is very interesting here is that Harvard shoots over 40% from deep, AND they score almost 25% of their points from the line, meaning that Arizona's size may make little or no difference, at least defensively. I would say that's especially true because the one Achilles Heel of the Wildcats defense is defending the perimeter. With that in mind and knowing that they'll run if given the chance, I'd lean over in this one because they are a great defensive rebounding team, and with Harvard missed deep shots there may well be plenty of opportunities for fast break points. Yes, Harvard played and Ivy League schedule (duh), but they played the 26th best non-conference schedule, beating Cal in Cal and losing to St. Marys on the road by one. So, Harvard hanging around here would not be a massive surprise. Certainly the fact that as of this writing the number opened at -10 and is still sitting there says nobody's jumping on the Wildcats early. I don't expect this line to go too much higher, and the initial move on the total was down. IMO that could be a setup for later.
Oregon-St. Louis: Something's got to give here because we've got two of the most favorite public teams to bet on, and IMO putting that line out at -3.5 is just saying exactly that. Obviously the Billikens would be favored, but not by TOO much over a team the public is in love with. Here's what concerns me about taking St. Louis. Yes, they breezed through the A-10, but early in the season two teams they lost to were Santa Clara and Kansas (badly) and what they have in common with the Ducks is they play quick. St. Louis wasn't tested at all against New Mexico State (shit) while Oregon is in full Tournament mode after beating an excellent Oklahoma State team with perhaps one of the best PG's in the nation in Marcus Smart. Oregon has the size to compete with St. Louis, and really the only concern I would have is whether they Ducks and their Freshman PG can keep from turning the ball over, which had been a problem earlier in the season. On the other hand, perhaps that time off Artis had can be beneficial at this point. St. Louis is not a great offensive rebounding team, which would help them control the pace, so we actually lean Ducks here.
Cal-Syracuse: Two of my least favorite teams to bet on, especially Syracuse after that Louisville debacle. I've been big on fading these Big East teams that pack it in against teams that can simply shoot over them, and perhaps that's the way we'll go here. But, my problem with Cal all season had been that they were soft (physically) at times, and obvously against a Big East team (even a soft one like Syracuse) that COULD be a problem. Dan Bebe's Bears beat a very undisciplined team in UNLV, although they let the Rebels make it a much closer game than it needed to be, while the Orange just did everything right (or Montana did everything wrong). Clearly that would make Syracuse the early betting favorite (publicly) and it opened at -8 and quickly went to -7.5, and today has been going back and forth, so clearly some disagreement there. The one thing Cal does have to compete is the size, but what I really don't like at all is they score the overwhelming majority of their points inside and obviously against that Syracuse zone that's just not going to be an easy thing to do. They've got a thin bench, whereas Syracuse does not. Cal's interior defense is very good, so if Triche and/or Sutherland can shoot over them, this does have the potential to be a blowout. If the game were on the East Coast this is one time I might lay the points. SLIGHT lean to the over only because I can see Cal firing three's late to catch up. Problem is that Crabbe is about the only threat they have, and with the minutes he plays he'll be one tired Bear by the time this game is over.
