[h=1]Giant Killers: Sunday upset odds[/h][h=3]Chances that Miami, Kansas, Duke and other favorites fall in Round of 32[/h]
By Peter Keating | ESPN Insider
Sunday's round of 32 offers a full slate of exciting Giant Killer matchups: seven games, including five in which our statistical model says the underdog has at least a 25 percent chance of winning. With the 7- to 10-seeds stacked with potential Cinderellas and even Florida Gulf Coast packing a slingshot, here's how things break down, region by region.
(For a full explanation of our formula, click here.)
East Region
[h=3]No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 9 Temple Owls[/h]Upset chance: 7.9 percent
We cite points per 100 possessions as a stat so often around here that you might be wondering who leads the country in that all-important category. The answer, after adjusting for opponent strength: Indiana, at a massive 123.9.
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The Hoosiers are a top-five team in shooting 3s and in offensive rebounding. They protect the ball. And in their tuneup against 16-seed James Madison, a game in which Cody Zeller played just 27 minutes and Victor Oladipo 26, they showed off other aspects of their play, too, collecting 25 defensive rebounds, passing for 17 assists and sending the Dukes to the free throw line only four times.
Feel free to stop saying there are no teams separating themselves from the pack this season because Temple, with its 203rd-ranked offensive rebounding, isn't going to stop Indiana from breaking away.
[h=3]No. 2 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 7 Illinois Fighting Illini[/h]Upset chance: 46.1 percent
Jim Larranaga is a smart guy and has probably already figured out what our spreadsheets have to say. But, just in case, here goes: Hey, Coach! Look out!
The Hurricanes blew through the ACC tournament most impressively, and they put away Pacific with ease Friday. But they have three dangerous traits. First, they're not aggressive on the offensive glass (offensive rebounds on 30.9 percent of missed shots, ranking 197th in the NCAA). Second, they force few turnovers (18.5 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 255th). We get that this is because they're busy positioning themselves to take, and to stop opponents from taking, good shots, and that strategy works for them. But past Giants have been successful when they generate extra possessions -- and vulnerable when they don't.
Which bring us to the third red flag: Miami allows opponents to take 35.2 percent of their shots from behind the 3-point arc (ranking 252nd in the NCAA). A team that makes those 3s could make the Hurricanes very sorry -- and although Illinois has done a poor job hitting from downtown (32 percent on 3-point attempts, ranking 256th), the Illini do drop megatons of bombs: a huge 41.6 percent of Illini shots -- and 33.9 percent of their points -- come from 3s.
Illinois protects the ball, generates turnovers and does a good job on the offensive glass, so it's going to take a bunch of shots. And, as we've written, the Illini are a high-variance team that's willing to let Brandon Paul, D. J. Richardson and their cohorts just keep firing away from long range. If one or two of them have a good night, Miami will have to adapt, or a classic Giant Killer scenario could unfold.
South Region
[h=3]No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels[/h]Upset chance: 26.6 percent
After Miami blew out UNC in February, Roy Williams switched to a smaller lineup, with four guards often playing around James Michael McAdoo, and now North Carolina operates with a lot more energy, taking lots of 3-point attempts on offense and forcing turnovers on defense. You could see the results against Villanova on Friday night, when the Tar Heels went 11-of-21 (52.4 percent) from downtown and had 10 steals.
But this style hasn't fared so well against opponents with strong inside games. And although Carolina works the offensive glass well, its breakneck tempo (70.6 possessions per game, ranking 18th in the NCAA) isn't well-suited to taking on superior teams. UNC lost to Duke by 16 to end the regular season, and to Miami by 10 in the ACC tournament, and it is likely to have trouble with Kansas' size. The Jayhawks allow opponents to shoot just 39 percent, lowest in the NCAA on 2-point attempts, and lead the country in blocking, too.
Kansas shoots well, but because the Jayhawks are just average at protecting the ball, their offense ranks just 30th in the NCAA, with 111.7 points per 100 possessions. And they allow a lot of 3-point attempts (36 percent of all shots, ranking 281st in the NCAA). So UNC will have its chances. The key questions are whether the Heels will hit their long-range shots against a Kansas D that allows opponents to shoot just 30.2 percent on 3s (ranking 25th in the NCAA). And whether, with their pace, they can keep a lead.
[h=3]No. 3 Florida Gators vs. No. 11 Minnesota Golden Gophers[/h]Upset chance: 27.7 percent
Our statistical model loves Florida's fundamental strength, and it's not the only one: The Gators rank second (behind Louisville) in BPI and are No. 1 in Ken Pomeroy's ratings. Billy Donovan's miraculous conversion to tempo-free stats has his team focused on efficiency, and Florida is a top-five team in offense (118.5 points per 100 possessions) and defense (82.9). The Gators protect the ball, rebound on both ends, score from the outside and shut down the perimeter. That's a tough formula for any Killer to crack. Florida is also absurdly underseeded and, in its opening contest, demolished Northwestern State 79-47 in a game that wasn't as close as the score.
Careful, though. In rolling over UCLA, Minnesota showed it could win even while grabbing just a third of its missed shots. The Gophers took care of the ball, forced 14 turnovers and concentrated their 3-point attempts in the hands of Andre and Austin Hollins, their most effective shooters. (Apologists are pointing out that the Bruins were short-handed without Jordan Adams. OK, but their frontcourt starters were still an average of three inches taller than the Gophers, and they got manhandled inside as well as outside.)
On most nights, Minnesota will hit the glass much more effectively: It leads the nation with offensive rebounds on 44 percent of missed shots. And if the Gophers can do anything with all those extra possessions, the way they did against UCLA -- hang on to the ball, make shots, make 3s -- they will be highly dangerous. The unpredictable Gophers, who went 15-1 to start the season, then 5-11, and now have secured a huge giant killing, are just the kind of high-variance team that can force Florida to start worrying a round earlier than expected.
[h=3]No. 7 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles[/h]Upset chance: 16.3 percentOur take on FGCU's chances, along with a deconstruction of just how low the Eagles brought Georgetown on Friday night, is here.
Midwest Region
[h=3]No. 2 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 7 Creighton Bluejays[/h]Upset chance: 30.9 percent
Our spreadsheets have been looking forward to this matchup since the moment the NCAA tournament committee announced its seedings. Of the things a Killer needs to do well to beat a Giant, Creighton does just one well -- but it does it very, very well. The Bluejays nail an NCAA-best 42.2 percent of their 3-point shots. Combined with 56.1 percent shooting from inside, Creighton's effective field goal percentage is a whopping 59 percent (No. 1 in the country), and it scores 118.5 points per 100 possessions (No. 6). "We spread the ball, and we've got a lot of guys who can score," says senior guard Grant Gibbs, to which we say: Yep.
The Bluejays are led by junior forward Doug McDermott, whom you've heard about by now, and he's the real deal. The archetypal stretch 4, McDermott has hit nearly 50 percent of his long-range shots (74-for-149 on 3s, 49.7 percent) and has an underrated knack for drawing fouls while neither committing them nor turning the ball over. Here at GK Central, we swear by tempo-free stats, but even we think it's cool that McDermott is second in the nation with 23.1 points per game. And he's been waiting his whole life for this moment -- by which we mean, of course, the chance to make the All-Giant Killers team.
Duke, meanwhile, is built to defend the arc, with three guards constantly patrolling the perimeter, and allows opponents to shoot just 30.2 percent on 3-pointers (ranking: 22nd in the NCAA). And the Blue Devils shoot almost as well as the Bluejays (40.5 percent on 3s, 54.6 percent effective FG percentage) and score even more efficiently (119.8 points per 100 possessions, third-best in the NCAA) because they also hardly ever turn the ball over. So this should be a highly entertaining battle of the bombers, one where Duke has a significant edge on defense.
But once again, we have to point out the Blue Devils' bugaboo: rebounding. Successful Giants ward off Killers by generating extra possessions, and Duke grabs offensive rebounds on just 29.3 percent of missed shots (ranking 244th in the NCAA). This is a real problem, even with Ryan Kelly -- it's a function of the Devils' lineups and spacing. It's a key vulnerability, and Creighton is perfectly suited to take advantage of second chances.
West Region
[h=3]No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 10 Iowa State Cyclones[/h]Upset chance: 25.2 percent
If our statistical model celebrated Valentine's Day, this year it would have sent candy to Fred Hoiberg, whose Cyclones maximize the quantity and the value of their possessions: Strong offensive rebounding and 3-point shooting give Iowa State a chance to beat anybody. (As we discussed here, the Cyclones lead the nation in getting points from the unusual combination of long-distance shooting and offensive boards.) At 116.8 points per 100 possessions, Iowa State runs the eighth-most efficient offense in the country, and the Cyclones didn't even need to fire on all cylinders in Friday's win over Notre Dame, as the Irish threw the game away by throwing the ball away 17 times.
But let's keep things in perspective. Ohio State can shoot from anywhere, doesn't overrely on free throws, generates blocks and steals while making very few mistakes, and smothers opponents with a defense that surrenders only 86.1 points per 100 possessions. This game's kinetic energy should reveal quickly whether the Cyclones can stay with Ohio State: Either Iowa State, which likes to run at nearly 70 possessions a game, will be able to push the ball, or you'll see the bigger (yet still fast) Buckeyes constrict them like a boa.
By Peter Keating | ESPN Insider
Sunday's round of 32 offers a full slate of exciting Giant Killer matchups: seven games, including five in which our statistical model says the underdog has at least a 25 percent chance of winning. With the 7- to 10-seeds stacked with potential Cinderellas and even Florida Gulf Coast packing a slingshot, here's how things break down, region by region.
(For a full explanation of our formula, click here.)
East Region
[h=3]No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 9 Temple Owls[/h]Upset chance: 7.9 percent
We cite points per 100 possessions as a stat so often around here that you might be wondering who leads the country in that all-important category. The answer, after adjusting for opponent strength: Indiana, at a massive 123.9.
<OFFER></OFFER>
The Hoosiers are a top-five team in shooting 3s and in offensive rebounding. They protect the ball. And in their tuneup against 16-seed James Madison, a game in which Cody Zeller played just 27 minutes and Victor Oladipo 26, they showed off other aspects of their play, too, collecting 25 defensive rebounds, passing for 17 assists and sending the Dukes to the free throw line only four times.
Feel free to stop saying there are no teams separating themselves from the pack this season because Temple, with its 203rd-ranked offensive rebounding, isn't going to stop Indiana from breaking away.
[h=3]No. 2 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 7 Illinois Fighting Illini[/h]Upset chance: 46.1 percent
Jim Larranaga is a smart guy and has probably already figured out what our spreadsheets have to say. But, just in case, here goes: Hey, Coach! Look out!
The Hurricanes blew through the ACC tournament most impressively, and they put away Pacific with ease Friday. But they have three dangerous traits. First, they're not aggressive on the offensive glass (offensive rebounds on 30.9 percent of missed shots, ranking 197th in the NCAA). Second, they force few turnovers (18.5 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 255th). We get that this is because they're busy positioning themselves to take, and to stop opponents from taking, good shots, and that strategy works for them. But past Giants have been successful when they generate extra possessions -- and vulnerable when they don't.
Which bring us to the third red flag: Miami allows opponents to take 35.2 percent of their shots from behind the 3-point arc (ranking 252nd in the NCAA). A team that makes those 3s could make the Hurricanes very sorry -- and although Illinois has done a poor job hitting from downtown (32 percent on 3-point attempts, ranking 256th), the Illini do drop megatons of bombs: a huge 41.6 percent of Illini shots -- and 33.9 percent of their points -- come from 3s.
Illinois protects the ball, generates turnovers and does a good job on the offensive glass, so it's going to take a bunch of shots. And, as we've written, the Illini are a high-variance team that's willing to let Brandon Paul, D. J. Richardson and their cohorts just keep firing away from long range. If one or two of them have a good night, Miami will have to adapt, or a classic Giant Killer scenario could unfold.
South Region
[h=3]No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels[/h]Upset chance: 26.6 percent
After Miami blew out UNC in February, Roy Williams switched to a smaller lineup, with four guards often playing around James Michael McAdoo, and now North Carolina operates with a lot more energy, taking lots of 3-point attempts on offense and forcing turnovers on defense. You could see the results against Villanova on Friday night, when the Tar Heels went 11-of-21 (52.4 percent) from downtown and had 10 steals.
But this style hasn't fared so well against opponents with strong inside games. And although Carolina works the offensive glass well, its breakneck tempo (70.6 possessions per game, ranking 18th in the NCAA) isn't well-suited to taking on superior teams. UNC lost to Duke by 16 to end the regular season, and to Miami by 10 in the ACC tournament, and it is likely to have trouble with Kansas' size. The Jayhawks allow opponents to shoot just 39 percent, lowest in the NCAA on 2-point attempts, and lead the country in blocking, too.
Kansas shoots well, but because the Jayhawks are just average at protecting the ball, their offense ranks just 30th in the NCAA, with 111.7 points per 100 possessions. And they allow a lot of 3-point attempts (36 percent of all shots, ranking 281st in the NCAA). So UNC will have its chances. The key questions are whether the Heels will hit their long-range shots against a Kansas D that allows opponents to shoot just 30.2 percent on 3s (ranking 25th in the NCAA). And whether, with their pace, they can keep a lead.
[h=3]No. 3 Florida Gators vs. No. 11 Minnesota Golden Gophers[/h]Upset chance: 27.7 percent
Our statistical model loves Florida's fundamental strength, and it's not the only one: The Gators rank second (behind Louisville) in BPI and are No. 1 in Ken Pomeroy's ratings. Billy Donovan's miraculous conversion to tempo-free stats has his team focused on efficiency, and Florida is a top-five team in offense (118.5 points per 100 possessions) and defense (82.9). The Gators protect the ball, rebound on both ends, score from the outside and shut down the perimeter. That's a tough formula for any Killer to crack. Florida is also absurdly underseeded and, in its opening contest, demolished Northwestern State 79-47 in a game that wasn't as close as the score.
Careful, though. In rolling over UCLA, Minnesota showed it could win even while grabbing just a third of its missed shots. The Gophers took care of the ball, forced 14 turnovers and concentrated their 3-point attempts in the hands of Andre and Austin Hollins, their most effective shooters. (Apologists are pointing out that the Bruins were short-handed without Jordan Adams. OK, but their frontcourt starters were still an average of three inches taller than the Gophers, and they got manhandled inside as well as outside.)
On most nights, Minnesota will hit the glass much more effectively: It leads the nation with offensive rebounds on 44 percent of missed shots. And if the Gophers can do anything with all those extra possessions, the way they did against UCLA -- hang on to the ball, make shots, make 3s -- they will be highly dangerous. The unpredictable Gophers, who went 15-1 to start the season, then 5-11, and now have secured a huge giant killing, are just the kind of high-variance team that can force Florida to start worrying a round earlier than expected.
[h=3]No. 7 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles[/h]Upset chance: 16.3 percentOur take on FGCU's chances, along with a deconstruction of just how low the Eagles brought Georgetown on Friday night, is here.
Midwest Region
[h=3]No. 2 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 7 Creighton Bluejays[/h]Upset chance: 30.9 percent
Our spreadsheets have been looking forward to this matchup since the moment the NCAA tournament committee announced its seedings. Of the things a Killer needs to do well to beat a Giant, Creighton does just one well -- but it does it very, very well. The Bluejays nail an NCAA-best 42.2 percent of their 3-point shots. Combined with 56.1 percent shooting from inside, Creighton's effective field goal percentage is a whopping 59 percent (No. 1 in the country), and it scores 118.5 points per 100 possessions (No. 6). "We spread the ball, and we've got a lot of guys who can score," says senior guard Grant Gibbs, to which we say: Yep.
The Bluejays are led by junior forward Doug McDermott, whom you've heard about by now, and he's the real deal. The archetypal stretch 4, McDermott has hit nearly 50 percent of his long-range shots (74-for-149 on 3s, 49.7 percent) and has an underrated knack for drawing fouls while neither committing them nor turning the ball over. Here at GK Central, we swear by tempo-free stats, but even we think it's cool that McDermott is second in the nation with 23.1 points per game. And he's been waiting his whole life for this moment -- by which we mean, of course, the chance to make the All-Giant Killers team.
Duke, meanwhile, is built to defend the arc, with three guards constantly patrolling the perimeter, and allows opponents to shoot just 30.2 percent on 3-pointers (ranking: 22nd in the NCAA). And the Blue Devils shoot almost as well as the Bluejays (40.5 percent on 3s, 54.6 percent effective FG percentage) and score even more efficiently (119.8 points per 100 possessions, third-best in the NCAA) because they also hardly ever turn the ball over. So this should be a highly entertaining battle of the bombers, one where Duke has a significant edge on defense.
But once again, we have to point out the Blue Devils' bugaboo: rebounding. Successful Giants ward off Killers by generating extra possessions, and Duke grabs offensive rebounds on just 29.3 percent of missed shots (ranking 244th in the NCAA). This is a real problem, even with Ryan Kelly -- it's a function of the Devils' lineups and spacing. It's a key vulnerability, and Creighton is perfectly suited to take advantage of second chances.
West Region
[h=3]No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 10 Iowa State Cyclones[/h]Upset chance: 25.2 percent
If our statistical model celebrated Valentine's Day, this year it would have sent candy to Fred Hoiberg, whose Cyclones maximize the quantity and the value of their possessions: Strong offensive rebounding and 3-point shooting give Iowa State a chance to beat anybody. (As we discussed here, the Cyclones lead the nation in getting points from the unusual combination of long-distance shooting and offensive boards.) At 116.8 points per 100 possessions, Iowa State runs the eighth-most efficient offense in the country, and the Cyclones didn't even need to fire on all cylinders in Friday's win over Notre Dame, as the Irish threw the game away by throwing the ball away 17 times.
But let's keep things in perspective. Ohio State can shoot from anywhere, doesn't overrely on free throws, generates blocks and steals while making very few mistakes, and smothers opponents with a defense that surrenders only 86.1 points per 100 possessions. This game's kinetic energy should reveal quickly whether the Cyclones can stay with Ohio State: Either Iowa State, which likes to run at nearly 70 possessions a game, will be able to push the ball, or you'll see the bigger (yet still fast) Buckeyes constrict them like a boa.
