[h=1]Ranking the Sweet 16 teams[/h][h=3]Florida, Louisville and Indiana are the top remaining contenders[/h]
By John Gasaway | ESPN Insider
We now have a Sweet 16, and in terms of average seed, it's the fifth-most-surprising group we've seen since the NCAA expanded the field to 64 teams in 1985. Meaning if your bracket is suffering, it might not be entirely your fault. (Then again, maybe it is all your fault. If you had Liberty going all the way, the blame is yours.)
Last week, I ranked the title contenders according to their performances in the regular season. It is time to refresh that list, and you'll notice some glaring absences this time around. Gonzaga, Georgetown and New Mexico are all long gone, so here's my take on who's left.
This is my 1-through-16 ranking of which teams have the best shot at winning it all right now. It is not to be confused with my own bracket, which was filled out last week. My bracket was heavily influenced by regular-season performance, but it still had a tweak here and there based on other factors. Next to each team, I've listed its per-possession scoring margin in conference play.
Contenders
1. Florida Gators (plus-0.28 points per possession)
In a piece that ran on Selection Sunday, I pointed out that Florida had turned in the best regular-season performance of any team in Division I. Of course, being the Gators, they promptly went out that very afternoon and lost in the SEC tournament title game to Mississippi. A good laugh was had at my expense; the NCAA announced the field of 68 teams; and life moved on. But take a look at Billy Donovan's team now. All that stands between UF and a third consecutive Elite Eight is a certain No. 15 seed (see below). People keep waiting for Florida to lose yet another close game, but the men from Gainesville haven't played any of those games yet in the tourney. In wins against Northwestern State and Minnesota, the Gators have limited their opponents to 41 percent shooting inside the arc.
2. Louisville Cardinals (plus-0.17)
Last week, I picked Louisville to win it all, and so far, Rick Pitino's team has been far and away the dullest No. 1 seed to this point -- and, of course, "dull" is a compliment here. Gonzaga's sitting at home in Spokane; Kansas looked shaky for the first 20 minutes against North Carolina (heck, the Jayhawks weren't exactly world beaters against Western Kentucky, either); and Indiana was taken to the wire by Temple. But the Cardinals have been dominant in wins over North Carolina A&T and Colorado State. In 80 minutes of basketball, Louisville has rebounded 76 percent of opponents' misses and 41 percent of its own. Considering 40 of those minutes were played against the high-volume-rebounding Rams of CSU, that's fairly amazing.
3. Indiana Hoosiers (plus-0.15)
Tom Crean's team flirted with elimination in the round of 32 but emerged with a six-point win over Temple. But upcoming opponents, starting with Syracuse, will take a very close look at the game tape left behind by the Owls, who held IU to just 58 points in a 62-possession game. Hoosiers starters not named "Victor Oladipo" were a combined 8-of-24 from the field.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (plus-0.08)
Deshaun Thomas & Co. haven't exactly cruised into the Sweet 16 without breaking a sweat, but the Buckeyes took Iowa State's best shot (the Cyclones drained a dozen 3s), had a close call go their way and emerged with a 78-75 win. In theory, Thad Matta's team has a golden opportunity to reach the Final Four in a West bracket that has only one of the top five seeds remaining. OSU will face No. 6 seed Arizona, and a win there would put the team in the Elite Eight against Wichita State or La Salle. Then again, Matta's team will be facing the Wildcats on Pac-12 turf, at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Ohio State's per-possession scoring margin in the regular season wasn't as high as that recorded by other contenders, but I picked the Buckeyes to reach the Final Four because of their exceptional late-season defense. Thomas, Aaron Craft and the Buckeyes will need to display that defense if they want to emerge from L.A. with a Final Four berth.
5. Duke Blue Devils (plus-0.15)
In wins over Albany and Creighton, the Duke defense has been very impressive, holding those opponents to just 0.88 points per possession. And before you write that off on account of the Blue Devils' opponent in the round of 64, bear in mind the better number here (0.78) was actually recorded against the Bluejays, one of the best shooting teams in the nation. However, the Devils' path to Atlanta looks absolutely brutal at the moment, with Michigan State next and a potential date with Louisville after that in the Elite Eight.
6. Kansas Jayhawks (plus-0.14)
Bill Self's team gave a few thousand Jayhawks fans a very good scare at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo., on Sunday, reverting to their "at TCU" look on offense in the first half against North Carolina. Good thing for those fans that KU showed its "at Iowa State" side in the second half, outscoring the Tar Heels 49-28 after the intermission. Kansas will want to retain that look, as the team's Sweet 16 game against resurgent Michigan looks more like an Elite Eight matchup -- if not a Final Four collision.
7. Miami Hurricanes (plus-0.14)
Congratulations to Jim Larranaga, who has his program in the Sweet 16 when previously it hadn't even made it to the NCAA tournament since 2008. The Hurricanes got the job done in the regular season with outstanding D, but, in wins over Pacific and Illinois, it has been the offense that's been superb, as Miami has scored 1.19 points per trip. Note additionally that Miami's next opponent, Marquette, has struggled at times on defense this season.
Not "pretenders" -- more like good teams in tough brackets
As I've noted before, the fun aspect of the NCAA tournament is that the nation's best teams battle it out head-to-head. Here, then, are the undeniably strong teams that I see coming up just short of reaching Atlanta.
8. Michigan State Spartans (plus-0.09)
You know how people just expect Tom Izzo to thrive each March? There might be something to that. After an unusually "down" regular season on the offensive glass by Spartans standards, MSU has hauled down 51 percent of its own misses in easy wins over Valparaiso and Memphis. Combine that with stifling defense (allowing 0.80 points per possession in the two victories) and you have cause for concern in the Duke camp about the teams' Sweet 16 matchup.
9. Michigan Wolverines (plus-0.10)
Few teams on this list looked more impressive than did John Beilein's men in their 78-53 dismantling of Virginia Commonwealth, and keep in mind the Wolverines weren't too shabby against South Dakota State, either. In two tournament wins, Michigan has hit 59 percent of its 2s. This offense looks as if it's recapturing its January magic, so the looming game against Kansas promises to be an epic showdown between the firepower of Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. and the defensive excellence of Jeff Withey and Travis Releford. To call such a game required viewing is putting it mildly.
10. Arizona Wildcats (plus-0.08)
Observers have been quick to point out that Sean Miller's team has not faced the most arduous path to the Sweet 16, but, even adjusting for the relative strength of the opposing teams (Belmont and Harvard), Arizona has been impressive. Outscoring two opponents by 0.31 points per possession, as the Wildcats have done, suggests to me this is a team that is, at last, peaking. My only concern with regard to Arizona's Final Four chances is that fate has thrown a really tough Ohio State team in the Cats' path.
11. Syracuse Orange (plus-0.07)
I like Jim Boeheim's team a lot more than I like its bracket. The East is the one region that has put its top four seeds straight through to the second weekend, meaning the No. 4-seeded Orange have a date with top seed Indiana in Washington D.C. Pull off that upset somehow and you still have a tough game to play, possibly against Miami. Nevertheless, you have to tip your hat to the defense we're seeing from Syracuse. Even if you toss out the 81-34 laugher over Montana (and you should), you're still looking at a team that held California to 60 points in 68 possessions (and did so in San Jose). I may have IU out of this region in my bracket, but I fully expect this Sweet 16 game to be close.
12. Wichita State Shockers (plus-0.10)
You just saw an amazing feat turned in by Gregg Marshall's team. Teams seeded on the 9-line aren't supposed to eliminate the No. 1 seed, but the Shockers hit 14 shots from beyond the arc to beat Gonzaga 76-70. Is Wichita State likely to continue shooting 50 percent on 3s, as it did against the Zags? No, but Marshall's men might not need to against La Salle. In the regular season, this was an excellent defense, as the Shockers proved in their 73-55 win over Pittsburgh in the round of 64.
13. Marquette Golden Eagles (plus-0.08)
Choose your favorite "cardiac kids" example. Whether it's Michigan State in the 2010 tournament or Butler that same year, this Marquette team is winning the same way: barely. Games against Davidson and the aforementioned Bulldogs came down to the final possession, and the Golden Eagles are still standing. In fact, if you're looking for a team of destiny, I nominate Marquette because Buzz Williams' team is in the Sweet 16 despite shooting just 40 percent on its 2s in the tournament. That number likely will improve, which is good news for Marquette fans because that kind of effort in the paint will not get the job done against Miami.
Straight-up long shots
It will be a surprise if we see any of these teams in Atlanta. And there have been absolutely no surprises in this tournament so far, right? I guess what I'm saying is, these teams are the leading candidates to provide us with our next round of bracket shock.
14. La Salle Explorers (plus-0.08)
All season, the Explorers drew way too little notice for a team that was playing at more or less the same per-possession level as Top 25 mainstay Butler. Now that attention deficit has been redressed, and all that stands between La Salle and an Elite Eight berth is Wichita State. Could we be seeing another First Four to Final Four journey like that of VCU in 2011? Stranger things have happened. John Giannini's small lineup is getting absolutely hammered on the glass at both ends of the floor, but it hasn't mattered. In wins over Boise State, Kansas State and Mississippi, the Explorers have taken excellent care of the ball and have connected on 43 percent of their 3s.
15. Oregon Ducks (plus-0.01)
I'm not sure any team on this list can claim a more impressive set of vanquished foes than can Dana Altman's group. Beating Oklahoma State and Saint Louis by double-digit margins is certainly noteworthy. And Altman has his team healthy at last, so the tournament field had best beware, right? Ordinarily, you bet. But the luck of the draw has offered up Louisville as the Ducks' next opponent. That will be a very tough task for an Oregon offense that, even in two convincing wins, has turned the ball over on 26 percent of its possessions.
16. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (plus-0.11)
The next team we will see dunked on often by Andy Enfield's group is Florida, and, mind you, I don't doubt for an instant that we will indeed see that. But I hesitate to pick the upset here because even two shell-shocked opponents (Georgetown and San Diego State) managed to fare pretty well on the interior against this defense. And if there's one thing the Gators know how to do (granted, when they're not jacking up too many 3s), it's how to make shots inside the arc. Billy Donovan's team led the SEC in that category by a mile this season. For FGCU to force misses in the paint against an offense of this caliber would be virtually unprecedented … kind of like a No. 15 seed reaching the Sweet 16.
By John Gasaway | ESPN Insider
We now have a Sweet 16, and in terms of average seed, it's the fifth-most-surprising group we've seen since the NCAA expanded the field to 64 teams in 1985. Meaning if your bracket is suffering, it might not be entirely your fault. (Then again, maybe it is all your fault. If you had Liberty going all the way, the blame is yours.)
Last week, I ranked the title contenders according to their performances in the regular season. It is time to refresh that list, and you'll notice some glaring absences this time around. Gonzaga, Georgetown and New Mexico are all long gone, so here's my take on who's left.
This is my 1-through-16 ranking of which teams have the best shot at winning it all right now. It is not to be confused with my own bracket, which was filled out last week. My bracket was heavily influenced by regular-season performance, but it still had a tweak here and there based on other factors. Next to each team, I've listed its per-possession scoring margin in conference play.
1. Florida Gators (plus-0.28 points per possession)
In a piece that ran on Selection Sunday, I pointed out that Florida had turned in the best regular-season performance of any team in Division I. Of course, being the Gators, they promptly went out that very afternoon and lost in the SEC tournament title game to Mississippi. A good laugh was had at my expense; the NCAA announced the field of 68 teams; and life moved on. But take a look at Billy Donovan's team now. All that stands between UF and a third consecutive Elite Eight is a certain No. 15 seed (see below). People keep waiting for Florida to lose yet another close game, but the men from Gainesville haven't played any of those games yet in the tourney. In wins against Northwestern State and Minnesota, the Gators have limited their opponents to 41 percent shooting inside the arc.
2. Louisville Cardinals (plus-0.17)
Last week, I picked Louisville to win it all, and so far, Rick Pitino's team has been far and away the dullest No. 1 seed to this point -- and, of course, "dull" is a compliment here. Gonzaga's sitting at home in Spokane; Kansas looked shaky for the first 20 minutes against North Carolina (heck, the Jayhawks weren't exactly world beaters against Western Kentucky, either); and Indiana was taken to the wire by Temple. But the Cardinals have been dominant in wins over North Carolina A&T and Colorado State. In 80 minutes of basketball, Louisville has rebounded 76 percent of opponents' misses and 41 percent of its own. Considering 40 of those minutes were played against the high-volume-rebounding Rams of CSU, that's fairly amazing.
3. Indiana Hoosiers (plus-0.15)
Tom Crean's team flirted with elimination in the round of 32 but emerged with a six-point win over Temple. But upcoming opponents, starting with Syracuse, will take a very close look at the game tape left behind by the Owls, who held IU to just 58 points in a 62-possession game. Hoosiers starters not named "Victor Oladipo" were a combined 8-of-24 from the field.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (plus-0.08)
Deshaun Thomas & Co. haven't exactly cruised into the Sweet 16 without breaking a sweat, but the Buckeyes took Iowa State's best shot (the Cyclones drained a dozen 3s), had a close call go their way and emerged with a 78-75 win. In theory, Thad Matta's team has a golden opportunity to reach the Final Four in a West bracket that has only one of the top five seeds remaining. OSU will face No. 6 seed Arizona, and a win there would put the team in the Elite Eight against Wichita State or La Salle. Then again, Matta's team will be facing the Wildcats on Pac-12 turf, at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Ohio State's per-possession scoring margin in the regular season wasn't as high as that recorded by other contenders, but I picked the Buckeyes to reach the Final Four because of their exceptional late-season defense. Thomas, Aaron Craft and the Buckeyes will need to display that defense if they want to emerge from L.A. with a Final Four berth.
5. Duke Blue Devils (plus-0.15)
In wins over Albany and Creighton, the Duke defense has been very impressive, holding those opponents to just 0.88 points per possession. And before you write that off on account of the Blue Devils' opponent in the round of 64, bear in mind the better number here (0.78) was actually recorded against the Bluejays, one of the best shooting teams in the nation. However, the Devils' path to Atlanta looks absolutely brutal at the moment, with Michigan State next and a potential date with Louisville after that in the Elite Eight.
6. Kansas Jayhawks (plus-0.14)
Bill Self's team gave a few thousand Jayhawks fans a very good scare at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo., on Sunday, reverting to their "at TCU" look on offense in the first half against North Carolina. Good thing for those fans that KU showed its "at Iowa State" side in the second half, outscoring the Tar Heels 49-28 after the intermission. Kansas will want to retain that look, as the team's Sweet 16 game against resurgent Michigan looks more like an Elite Eight matchup -- if not a Final Four collision.
7. Miami Hurricanes (plus-0.14)
Congratulations to Jim Larranaga, who has his program in the Sweet 16 when previously it hadn't even made it to the NCAA tournament since 2008. The Hurricanes got the job done in the regular season with outstanding D, but, in wins over Pacific and Illinois, it has been the offense that's been superb, as Miami has scored 1.19 points per trip. Note additionally that Miami's next opponent, Marquette, has struggled at times on defense this season.
As I've noted before, the fun aspect of the NCAA tournament is that the nation's best teams battle it out head-to-head. Here, then, are the undeniably strong teams that I see coming up just short of reaching Atlanta.
8. Michigan State Spartans (plus-0.09)
You know how people just expect Tom Izzo to thrive each March? There might be something to that. After an unusually "down" regular season on the offensive glass by Spartans standards, MSU has hauled down 51 percent of its own misses in easy wins over Valparaiso and Memphis. Combine that with stifling defense (allowing 0.80 points per possession in the two victories) and you have cause for concern in the Duke camp about the teams' Sweet 16 matchup.
9. Michigan Wolverines (plus-0.10)
Few teams on this list looked more impressive than did John Beilein's men in their 78-53 dismantling of Virginia Commonwealth, and keep in mind the Wolverines weren't too shabby against South Dakota State, either. In two tournament wins, Michigan has hit 59 percent of its 2s. This offense looks as if it's recapturing its January magic, so the looming game against Kansas promises to be an epic showdown between the firepower of Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. and the defensive excellence of Jeff Withey and Travis Releford. To call such a game required viewing is putting it mildly.
10. Arizona Wildcats (plus-0.08)
Observers have been quick to point out that Sean Miller's team has not faced the most arduous path to the Sweet 16, but, even adjusting for the relative strength of the opposing teams (Belmont and Harvard), Arizona has been impressive. Outscoring two opponents by 0.31 points per possession, as the Wildcats have done, suggests to me this is a team that is, at last, peaking. My only concern with regard to Arizona's Final Four chances is that fate has thrown a really tough Ohio State team in the Cats' path.
11. Syracuse Orange (plus-0.07)
I like Jim Boeheim's team a lot more than I like its bracket. The East is the one region that has put its top four seeds straight through to the second weekend, meaning the No. 4-seeded Orange have a date with top seed Indiana in Washington D.C. Pull off that upset somehow and you still have a tough game to play, possibly against Miami. Nevertheless, you have to tip your hat to the defense we're seeing from Syracuse. Even if you toss out the 81-34 laugher over Montana (and you should), you're still looking at a team that held California to 60 points in 68 possessions (and did so in San Jose). I may have IU out of this region in my bracket, but I fully expect this Sweet 16 game to be close.
12. Wichita State Shockers (plus-0.10)
You just saw an amazing feat turned in by Gregg Marshall's team. Teams seeded on the 9-line aren't supposed to eliminate the No. 1 seed, but the Shockers hit 14 shots from beyond the arc to beat Gonzaga 76-70. Is Wichita State likely to continue shooting 50 percent on 3s, as it did against the Zags? No, but Marshall's men might not need to against La Salle. In the regular season, this was an excellent defense, as the Shockers proved in their 73-55 win over Pittsburgh in the round of 64.
13. Marquette Golden Eagles (plus-0.08)
Choose your favorite "cardiac kids" example. Whether it's Michigan State in the 2010 tournament or Butler that same year, this Marquette team is winning the same way: barely. Games against Davidson and the aforementioned Bulldogs came down to the final possession, and the Golden Eagles are still standing. In fact, if you're looking for a team of destiny, I nominate Marquette because Buzz Williams' team is in the Sweet 16 despite shooting just 40 percent on its 2s in the tournament. That number likely will improve, which is good news for Marquette fans because that kind of effort in the paint will not get the job done against Miami.
It will be a surprise if we see any of these teams in Atlanta. And there have been absolutely no surprises in this tournament so far, right? I guess what I'm saying is, these teams are the leading candidates to provide us with our next round of bracket shock.
14. La Salle Explorers (plus-0.08)
All season, the Explorers drew way too little notice for a team that was playing at more or less the same per-possession level as Top 25 mainstay Butler. Now that attention deficit has been redressed, and all that stands between La Salle and an Elite Eight berth is Wichita State. Could we be seeing another First Four to Final Four journey like that of VCU in 2011? Stranger things have happened. John Giannini's small lineup is getting absolutely hammered on the glass at both ends of the floor, but it hasn't mattered. In wins over Boise State, Kansas State and Mississippi, the Explorers have taken excellent care of the ball and have connected on 43 percent of their 3s.
15. Oregon Ducks (plus-0.01)
I'm not sure any team on this list can claim a more impressive set of vanquished foes than can Dana Altman's group. Beating Oklahoma State and Saint Louis by double-digit margins is certainly noteworthy. And Altman has his team healthy at last, so the tournament field had best beware, right? Ordinarily, you bet. But the luck of the draw has offered up Louisville as the Ducks' next opponent. That will be a very tough task for an Oregon offense that, even in two convincing wins, has turned the ball over on 26 percent of its possessions.
16. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (plus-0.11)
The next team we will see dunked on often by Andy Enfield's group is Florida, and, mind you, I don't doubt for an instant that we will indeed see that. But I hesitate to pick the upset here because even two shell-shocked opponents (Georgetown and San Diego State) managed to fare pretty well on the interior against this defense. And if there's one thing the Gators know how to do (granted, when they're not jacking up too many 3s), it's how to make shots inside the arc. Billy Donovan's team led the SEC in that category by a mile this season. For FGCU to force misses in the paint against an offense of this caliber would be virtually unprecedented … kind of like a No. 15 seed reaching the Sweet 16.
